US Politics: Weimar, Washington, Whining, Bush II

[ThinkerX]

I am seeing increasing Facebook commentary about an 'Antifa Offensive' - apparently featuring heavily armed 'Antifa terrorists' swooping into white suburbs to cause havoc.   One posted about a massive cache of seized 'Antifa' weapons, another posted a short clip that showed black clad people (Antifa? brave militia defenders?) attacking a van in Pennsylvania. 

There is a pervasive, iron held belief on the right that Antifa is a sort of left wing version of the far right militias, complete with officers and training camps.  Tell them otherwise, and the responses range from genuine bafflement to utter contempt.

[Ran]

44 minutes ago, karaddin said:

I feel like this person and a whole bunch of the replies are living in a reality almost as far from mine as the hardcore Trumpists and Qs.

Having followed Weigel's commentary in the past, I think you're misconstruing what he's saying. Most of the pundits he's referring to are of course right wingers, and then there is, I guess, the "doomer" wing of the left who have as a prior that there's no way Biden can win, and therefore they read every event in that light as being a thing that will contribute to their prior.

Weigel's very much an inside-baseball guy and his perspective is very different -- and much more cynical, really, about punditry and politics -- than that of the electorate. I don't think he's intending to suggest complacency at all, merely that pundits who keep trying to find evidence that Biden's going to lose from headlines are making an unforced error.

 

[Larry of the Lawn]

 

 

I shared these earlier and then deleted because I thought it must be a parody account.  But nope!  It's legit!  It's real!  Iowans having a hell of Saturday on Twitter.

[SeanF]

9 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Tramp just announced he'd fill the seat. He sounds sick. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the 2 WH staffers who tested positive last week. "It will be a woman... UNLESS...(rambling)"

Does that mean Ann Coulter?

[karaddin]

4 hours ago, Ran said:

Having followed Weigel's commentary in the past, I think you're misconstruing what he's saying. Most of the pundits he's referring to are of course right wingers, and then there is, I guess, the "doomer" wing of the left who have as a prior that there's no way Biden can win, and therefore they read every event in that light as being a thing that will contribute to their prior.

Weigel's very much an inside-baseball guy and his perspective is very different -- and much more cynical, really, about punditry and politics -- than that of the electorate. I don't think he's intending to suggest complacency at all, merely that pundits who keep trying to find evidence that Biden's going to lose from headlines are making an unforced error.

A whole bunch of the replies certainly were thinking what I'm referring to though. I'm not even assering that I'm necessarily right about this, just that there's almost as much gap between me and people with that level of confidence as there is between both of us as the out there as fuck right. If you've watched Dark I'm essentially going with "I'd been seing an infinity symbol but its actually a triquetra" kind of scenario.

3 hours ago, Triskele said:

A sign of the times though, but it seems to me like Karaddin's also saying don't make that other unforced error... like last time.  
 

No idea what's right

I'm not actually seeing much evidence that anyone with the power to make a difference even is taking it for granted, and there is just as much argument that the things I'd identify as unforced errors are actually the right moves, so I'm not here throwing around judgement. Just amazed at how big a difference there is.

I am very scared that Trump is going to win "legitimately" despite all the signs to the contrary, and I'm convinced he will do everything in his power to try steal it even if he loses, but I don't think I have anything like the conviction some of those people seem to have. Or the adoration for Biden's apparently perfect campaign? It can be weird as an outside observer of American politics trying to identify what actually appeals to your voters that would go down like a lead balloon elsewhere but I don't think that's the case here. I'll be very happy if they turn out to be closer to right than I think they are.

[DMC]

7 hours ago, karaddin said:

Appreciation for Biden's campaign is one thing, individual tastes vary of course, but the overweening pride and certainty of victory combined with contempt for people that are fearful of an authorization seizing power is really a different story.

I don't think Dave Weigel is a good representation of punditry - let alone the voters - when we're talking about potential complacency or detachment from reality.  Remember this is a guy that's publicly advertised he voted for Jack Ryan in 2004 and Ron Paul in 2008 (both primaries).  Such choices suggest his electoral leanings are indeed more detached from reality than the normal voter, and he's made his living by posing as an "eclectic" or (faux) "independent" commentator.  (Personally I've always thought he's just a douchebag.)

As for the guns coming out, they most certainly are going to.  But there's a very important distinction from such trash using them as intimidation props in their pathetic political cosplay and actually brandishing a weapon in an attempt to seize ballots.

2 hours ago, karaddin said:

I am very scared that Trump is going to win "legitimately" despite all the signs to the contrary, and I'm convinced he will do everything in his power to try steal it even if he loses, but I don't think I have anything like the conviction some of those people seem to have. Or the adoration for Biden's apparently perfect campaign? It can be weird as an outside observer of American politics trying to identify what actually appeals to your voters that would go down like a lead balloon elsewhere but I don't think that's the case here. I'll be very happy if they turn out to be closer to right than I think they are.

Maybe it's just cuz I just woke up, but this graph seems hard to parse while also including interesting points I want to respond to - so sorry if I misinterpret here which is quite likely.  First, I and pretty much all highly politically interested Biden voters share your strong concern that Trump will figure out a way to steal the election.  What I'm missing, however, is this apparent lauding of Biden's campaign being "perfect," or anything close to that.  Who exactly are you referring to there?  I mean, I don't have much complaints about Biden's campaign, but that's because it's barely existent and that's the right strategy. 

When your overall campaign strategy is a return to normalcy - and subsequently your electoral strategy is to ensure voters view the contest as a referendum on the incumbent you're challenging - then staying out of the spotlight and simply raising obscene amounts of cash for ad-buys sounds like the right way to go to me.  Still, though, that's hardly inspiring like Obama 2008, or even Clinton 1992, or really down the line.  So, I don't see much adoration for the campaign at all, or at least I certainly don't.  I definitely think it's the right move, but so too is running out the clock when your team has a lead.  It'll get you the win, but it ain't really anything to write home about.

Anyway, one last comment on the complacency thing - and this is just in general, not really in response to your posts specifically.  Perhaps I live in a bubble, or did even before covid forced us all into a bubble, but anecdotally talking to friends from all three cities I've lived in over my adult life I have to say I distinctly do not think there's the level of complacency there was in 2016.  This includes eggheads and (unfortunately former) bartenders in Pittsburgh, a diverse group that (at least used to) lives in Orlando, and about 7-8 old DC friends from my formative 18-22 years - five of which currently have high profile positions in politics, including *gasp* two Republicans.  To a person, each one of this group - including myself - basically assumed Hillary was going to win four years ago.  That is decidedly not the case today, even though Biden is running substantially superior to her in essentially every facet except for male minorities.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

I shared these earlier and then deleted because I thought it must be a parody account.  But nope!  It's legit!  It's real!  Iowans having a hell of Saturday on Twitter.

Grassley is known to have a really bizarre Twitter account. There are all kinds of gems on it.

He's also a good example of why there should be term limits.

ETA: not sure why I can't fix the spacing in the quote...

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

Does that mean Ann Coulter?

Haven't you heard? She famously turned on him a long time ago.

The pick will be the woman who literally is in a covenant where women are called handmaids. Art reflects reality only for reality to reflect art. 

We're in a brave new world. 

[karaddin]

23 minutes ago, DMC said:

When your overall campaign strategy is a return to normalcy - and subsequently your electoral strategy is to ensure voters view the contest as a referendum on the incumbent you're challenging - then staying out of the spotlight and simply raising obscene amounts of cash for ad-buys sounds like the right way to go to me.  Still, though, that's hardly inspiring like Obama 2008, or even Clinton 1992, or really down the line.  So, I don't see much adoration for the campaign at all, or at least I certainly don't.  I definitely think it's the right move, but so too is running out the clock when your team has a lead.  It'll get you the win, but it ain't really anything to write home about.

Either I'm still not being clear or you're not getting what I'm saying, which it is doesnt really matter lol. A bunch of the replies to that tweet before looked like this one below and I was just very confused by it. I hadn't seen that kind of sentiment expressed before and this made me feel like there was a whole bunch of people who are basically orgasmic for Biden and it really confused me. As I said, I'm not actually critising his campaign or anyone for complacency here, I just don't know what the fuck you need to be looking at to see the campaign like this. The bolded in your post makes it sound like you are similarly not critical of his campaign but also not blown away by it either. Its just been reserved/solid type campaign trying to play things safe. I will even give Biden that he didn't just focus on beating Trump in the DNC but tried to highlight other things - I've long felt that the left needs to offer something to vote for, not just someone to vote against and he is trying to do that.

So yeah, I really wasn't talking complacency at all today. Just confusion at the below.

 

 

[Larry of the Lawn]

25 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Haven't you heard? She famously turned on him a long time ago.

The pick will be the woman who literally is in a covenant where women are called handmaids. Art reflects reality only for reality to reflect art. 

We're in a brave new world. 

Paradox though it may seem - and paradoxes are always dangerous things - it is none the less true that Life imitates art far more than Art imitates life

-Oscar Wilde

@karaddin

I saw that bottom tweet yesterday and thought at first it had to be satire.  I guess it's just part of the !Team Sports! crowd in politics?

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, karaddin said:

A bunch of the replies to that tweet before looked like this one below and I was just very confused by it. I hadn't seen that kind of sentiment expressed before and this made me feel like there was a whole bunch of people who are basically orgasmic for Biden and it really confused me. As I said, I'm not actually critising his campaign or anyone for complacency here, I just don't know what the fuck you need to be looking at to see the campaign like this.

LOL, fair enough and totally agreed.  That tweet sounds like it's coming from a guy that just drank one too many Red Bulls.

To give the Biden campaign credit, I do think in their advertising - which I see constantly because I'm one of the few millennials left that still actually watches television with commercials - they have done an outstanding job pushing the message that Biden will help calm the country and quell the rabid divide in this country politically, racially, etc.  And that's an excellent tactic since uniting the country is a very salient issue right now (it's second right below the economy) and Biden is winning on it by a large margin.

26 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The pick will be the woman who literally is in a covenant where women are called handmaids.

So Septa Unella is gonna be the next Supreme Court justice?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

So Septa Unella is gonna be the next Supreme Court justice?

Could still be a step up from Barrett. 

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Could still be a step up from Barrett. 

Eh, seems like a lateral move.

[Mindwalker]

I've volunteered as a poll worker in my country many times. If anyone had turned up trying to even influence voters, let alone intimidate them, we would have told them off and snt them away. If they didn't comply, we'd have  called the police and they would have taken them off grounds. Of course they wouldn't have been carrying guns...

[Mladen]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/donald-trump-claims-stopped-mass-killings-between-serbia-kosovo/articleshow/78215524.cms

 

Please tell me this is fake news. Because... I can't... even... begin to comment.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

26 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

I've volunteered as a poll worker in my country many times. If anyone had turned up trying to even influence voters, let alone intimidate them, we would have told them off and snt them away. If they didn't comply, we'd have  called the police and they would have taken them off grounds. Of course they wouldn't have been carrying guns...

I’m a poll worker too.  We pull down any political signs within 400 ft of any polling place.

[DMC]

28 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

If anyone had turned up trying to even influence voters, let alone intimidate them, we would have called the police and they would have taken them off grounds.

This is generally the case here too, although very importantly not always in certain targeted precincts.  Either way, voter intimidation before the police are called is still voter intimidation.

18 minutes ago, Mladen said:

Please tell me this is fake news. Because... I can't... even... begin to comment.

I can't verify the quote, but it sounds like what he'd say after just receiving Kosovo's Order of Freedom and gaining a second nomination for the Nobel in the process in as many weeks.  Of course, in actuality the agreement reached is fairly boiler-plate normalization and otherwise wholly symbolic rather than effective.

[Fez]

Murkowski statement:

She confirms she doesn't support having a confirmation vote before the election, though doesn't actually say anything about the lame-duck session (I'd be surprised if she went for that though, unless Republicans win/steal the election). Not too big a surprise really, but good to see nonetheless. I still don't know where a 4th blocker might come from though (and that assumes Romney is against this, which he hasn't actually confirmed yet).

[Zorral]

11 hours ago, Triskele said:

even if I'm sure there are many fascist-leaning police, doesn't make me think they'll be involved in that type of stuff this time around.

Why in the world would you think that the cops wouldn't be involved in this, "this time around" when they already are? at least by omission, if not direct commission (which latter they are too, in many places, and have been for a very long time, in the Southwest and the South).  They did nothing when the Florida recount was physically stopped by rethug mob intimidation, just for starters.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

I still don't know where a 4th blocker might come from though

Indeed.  And yeah this seems like a firm statement - significantly more firm than Collins' - so I guess that's something.  If she's position-taking like this, it's more than fair to assume she'll remain the same if the vote is taken up during the lameduck session.

15 minutes ago, Zorral said:

They did nothing when the Florida recount was physically stopped by rethug mob intimidation, just for starters.

I agree the Brooks Brothers riot is an important and calamitous event to recall, especially now, and more importantly just generally - I include it in my lectures - but it's simply wrong to assert the police "did nothing:"

Quote

The demonstration turned violent and according to The New York Times, "several people were trampled, punched or kicked when protesters tried to rush the doors outside the office of the Miami-Dade supervisor of elections. Sheriff's deputies restored order."

Quote

Geller, a Democrat and now a state representative, asked for a sample ballot he planned to use to demonstrate a flaw in the machine tabulation system only to be almost immediately swarmed by protesters accusing him of stealing a ballot.

“Then I was surrounded by all of these pushing, shouting, shoving, kicking, elbowing people,” Geller remembers. He eventually got away with the help of a police officer who intervened. The protest had a lasting effect.