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A Horse Named Stranger

US Politics: Weimar, Washington, Whining, Bush II

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6 minutes ago, Fez said:

I just don't see Gorsuch as that kind of hack.

I think he's significantly more likely to side with a bullshit Trump lawsuit than Roberts is, yes.  Guess just agree to disagree here, no way to know until it happens or even really provide evidence - other than ideologically Gorsuch's decisions are considerably more conservative than Roberts' in the aggregate.

8 minutes ago, Fez said:

Also, if you want to get really Machiavellian, there's a chance that Gorsuch wants the power that comes from being the swing justice; and therefore would want to see Breyer get replaced by a Democrat (he's not getting to write any more landmark pro-Native rights opinions if the Court is 7-2 Republican in a couple years; it'll be hard enough finding a Republican to go along with him at 6-3). Since the odds of Breyer getting to January 2025 aren't the best. 

So in the first graph you're arguing he's not a hack and in the second you're arguing he wouldn't go along with Trump in the interest of maintaining his swing vote status - as opposed to upon Breyer's potential death banking a 7-2 majority?  Make up your mind!

7 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

But what I meant was, they wouldn't use it as leverage/ threat, then get their way, then do it anyway. I think.

Well, if "get their way" means getting the GOP to hold off on filling the seat, I guess I'm just not considering that as a possibility.

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Also, 

If this weren't an election year (and if this wasn't going to alter the court's composition), I don't think Barrett could get confirmed. Last time around, there was a whole lot of talk about how many Republican senators were uncomfortable with her and how relieved they were that Kavannaugh was the pick instead. Meanwhile, Lagoa would get easily confirmed; her appeals court vote just last year was 80-15 (although the somewhat bipartisan sheen on her may be gone after her ruling allowing the Florida poll tax). Thul would be somewhere in between the two.

I suspect it'll either be Barrett, to rile up the evangelicals some more, or Lagoa, to try to win over more hispanic support in Florida.

 

Just now, DMC said:

So in the first graph you're arguing he's not a hack and in the second you're arguing he wouldn't go along with Trump in the interest of maintaining his swing vote status - as opposed to upon Breyer's potential death banking a 7-2 majority?  Make up your mind!

Well, there's a difference between being a hack to advance your own interests and being a hack to advance others. But I don't really believe he'd aim to maintain swing status like that, since in a 6-3 court he's not really the swing justice either. Not in the way that Kennedy was for years and Roberts has been for a little bit. There will be (rare) times that Roberts and Kavanaugh join the liberals without him (like that Planned Parenthood case), and times that he wants to join the liberals but can't find a second Republican to join him (like with Native rights). It's going to be a complex web of negotiations among the conservatives, since all of them (except Alito) have their own niche areas where they've sided with the liberals in 5-4 decisions in the past. Even Thomas did; rarely. And none of them will be able to, unless they figure out some sort of internal arrangement; or the court gets packed.

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Mitch McConnell is a black tongue lieing sack of shit who’s blatent hypocrisy and double dealing have damaged American political discourse.  He is an embarrassment to everyone who has any integrity and believes politics should be about something more than mere power.  He is among the most base and immoral human beings to ever set foot in the well of the United States Senate.  If you are not embarrassed by him and his power grab I worry for your own integrity:

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9 minutes ago, Fez said:

But I don't really believe he'd aim to maintain swing status like that, since in a 6-3 court he's not really the swing justice either. Not in the way that Kennedy was for years and Roberts has been for a little bit. There will be (rare) times that Roberts and Kavanaugh join the liberals without him (like that Planned Parenthood case), and times that he wants to join the liberals but can't find a second Republican to join him (like with Native rights). It's going to be a complex web of negotiations among the conservatives, since all of them (except Alito) have their own niche areas where they've sided with the liberals in 5-4 decisions in the past.

Totally agree with all this.

15 minutes ago, Fez said:

Meanwhile, Lagoa would get easily confirmed

Yeah Lagoa would be a hell of a lot better than the other two.

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15 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Mitch McConnell is a black tongue lieing sack of shit who’s blatent hypocrisy and double dealing have damaged American political discourse.  He is an embarrassment to everyone who has any integrity and believes politics should be about something more than mere power.  He is among the most base and immoral human beings to ever set foot in the well of the United States Senate.  If you are not embarrassed by him and his power grab I worry for your own integrity:

I would like to highlight this non-patriot for any observing entities. Frankly, Scot, I'm disappointed in you. Abandoning true Republican values in our hour of triumph to side with a lost cause? Tisk, tisk.

If trials are permitted I'll speak to your character and longstanding devotion to the party, but it would be unRepublican of me to omit this display of faithlessness from the public record.

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I'm putting a dime on Coney Barrett:

- She's female. Conservatives will love the symbolism of replacing a progressive female with a conservative one. Especially RBG.
- She's white. Unless the Republicans hope nominating Lagoa can somehow bring them minority votes, they'll go for the white woman.
- She's a self-proclaimed originalist - keyword for "arch-conservative."
- Her views on abortion are perfect for the Republican base:

Quote

Coney Barrett has criticized landmark decision Roe v. Wade, which legalized abortion in the United States, as "creating through judicial fiat a framework of abortion on demand.” However, she has also said it is “very unlikely” the court would ever overturn the decision. “The controversy right now is about funding,” she stated in 2018. “It’s a question of whether abortions will be publicly or privately funded.”

They won't exactly end abortion, just make it affordable only for the rich.

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10 hours ago, Lollygag said:

You're (again) parroting some far right talking points here.

This argument is the exact same argument the way far right religious social conservatives use when the left tries to make them respect others' rights. Basically this is their whole you're-being-tyrannical-because-you're-limiting-my-right-to-be-tyrannical bullshit.

 

 

Who am I being tyrannical toward? I don't care if you are a liberal or a lefty or whatever. I do care when people try to police what I believe is the right thing to do politically. 

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10 hours ago, polishgenius said:

 


That is literally the opposite of what he said ffs.

While shutting down what someone else said as ridiculous or impossible. 

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The moon can be reached by man.

The moon can be reached by man jumping very high.

One of these statements is ridiculous and impossible, thus deserving a response in the opposite direction. An inability to process this fact is disastrously immature, near to simple.

 

Edited by Jace, Basilissa

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13 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

I'm putting a dime on Coney Barrett

Yeah she's the clear front-runner.

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In other news, calling a lid this morning while easily explicable as "the political terrain didn't so much shift beneath our feet last night as it did pull The Big One, and we need to recalculate and re-message before inadvertently committing ourselves going forward" makes "Biden is Taravangian (from the Stormlight Archive)" quips easier.

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Mitch McConnell is a black tongue lieing sack of shit who’s blatent hypocrisy and double dealing have damaged American political discourse.  He is an embarrassment to everyone who has any integrity and believes politics should be about something more than mere power.  He is among the most base and immoral human beings to ever set foot in the well of the United States Senate.  If you are not embarrassed by him and his power grab I worry for your own integrity:

Tell us you really feel, Ser Scot, I’m still a bit fuzzy!

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Sacks can be useful and are neutral. Mitch does things for power and personal profit. What does his wife do now? Oh yeah. I wonder is China and Russia are both paying him? 

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Time for a new Biden/Harris administration to pack the court.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/19/mcconnell-biden-pack-court/

Don't sit back and whine about unfairness or victimhood, don't be weak. Biden needs to add as many justices as it takes to ensure Americans are protected from the type of crazies that would take HC away from 35 million people or end women's control of their own bodies.

This is about preserving and protecting the dignity of the masses.

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Gotta say, the notion that nominating and confirming Lagoa before the election could help boost Trump with Cuban-Americans - and consequently help him win Florida - seems to have a much more valid theoretical basis than the notion waiting til after the election will help turnout more Trump voters than simply filling the seat now.

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14 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Time for a new Biden/Harris administration to pack the court.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/19/mcconnell-biden-pack-court/

Don't sit back and whine about unfairness or victimhood, don't be weak. Biden needs to add as many justices as it takes to ensure Americans are protected from the type of crazies that would take HC away from 35 million people or end women's control of their own bodies.

This is about preserving and protecting the dignity of the masses.

The masses are evil

The masses are bad

All you libtards

Get real SAD!

Doncha know how the game is played?

All your liberties are going to fade

Give me a cheer

Give me a shout

This is what elections are all about.

So don't be a grump

Don't be a grouse

Everyone bow to daddy in the big white house!

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MSNBC reports Collins says she doesn't believe the Senate should vote on a nominee this close to the election.

Miles away from Murkowski's statement (has she confirmed that since RGB died?) that she wouldn't vote for a nominee. Sounds like the beginning of her usual mealy-mouthed hedging which will lead to a yes vote.

 

OMG - the press is falling for her crap again and equivocating not supporting the process as a no vote on a nominee.

Edited by Lollygag

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Grassley with an important message in these trying times...

 

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22 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

MSNBC reports Collins says she doesn't believe the Senate should vote on a nominee this close to the election.

Miles away from Murkowski's statement (has she confirmed that since RGB died?) that she wouldn't vote for a nominee. Sounds like the beginning of her usual mealy-mouthed hedging which will lead to a yes vote.

 

OMG - the press is falling for her crap again and equivocating not supporting the process as a no vote on a nominee.

Whoa I am shocked.  And .... Appalled!  

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