US Politics: Weimar, Washington, Whining, Bush II

[ThinkerX]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

What flips the switch? Years ago I wrote here that the only way Trump's control over the Republican Party could be flipped is if he oversaw some kind of calamity. I couldn't have guessed a once in a century pandemic would happen. And yet it has hardly moved the needle. 

This isn't going away, win or lose. 

 

 

old age.  The majority of Trump's base are old white people - and they are dying in droves.

[Fury Resurrected]

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

old age.  The majority of Trump's base are old white people - and they are dying in droves.

Don’t be so sure. There’s a lot more Kyle Rittenhouses out there than you would think.

[Week]

8 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Wait...Trump said you don’t need to count Covid deaths in blue states?

I'll allow it if he removes blue states from all economic numbers. Can't mention anything on NYSE, NASDAQ, or, hell, CME/CBOE.

8 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

 

Uh, ok? Words to elaborate?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

old age.  The majority of Trump's base are old white people - and they are dying in droves.

 

3 hours ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Don’t be so sure. There’s a lot more Kyle Rittenhouses out there than you would think.

Moreover, these types will grow increasingly defensive and dangerous as their privilege slips through their fingers like sand on a beach. Cliche as it is, almost nobody gives up their power willingly, and Trump's entire game is stoking white resentment and grievances. Because ya know, the real racists are the BLM protesters...

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

20 minutes ago, Week said:

I'll allow it if he removes blue states from all economic numbers. Can't mention anything on NYSE, NASDAQ, or, hell, CME/CBOE.

Don't forget their tax burden too. We can fund the government just from red states tax revenue...oh wait, dear god.....

Quote

Uh, ok? Words to elaborate?

I deiced to randomly listen to parts of that for about ten minutes last night as my Heat crushed your Celtics, and, um, pretty much proves exactly what I was saying the other day. Just a lot of toxic nonsense. 

[Week]

27 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Don't forget their tax burden too. We can fund the government just from red states tax revenue...oh wait, dear god.....

For sure, for sure -- I mentioned those because he touts the stock market and economy in every speech he poorly reads at his super spreader events.

Quote

I deiced to randomly listen to parts of that for about ten minutes last night as my Heat crushed your Celtics, and, um, pretty much proves exactly what I was saying the other day. Just a lot of toxic nonsense. 

Yeah, I'm not spending any time listening to a podcast without a full throated recommendation. I posted an article with a short quote - folks can get the just and decide whether to click through.

Re: Sports, I pretty much only follow Baseball at this point. Cut the cord, so opportunities to watch are pretty limited. Especially with indoor dining closed/limited/insane to partake in at this point. Sounded like Marcus Smart was not a happy camper.

[Larry of the Lawn]

For those of you who can't stomach voting for Biden, or for those of you have have been frustrated trying to convince more leftish or independent people to vote for Biden, this essay from David Sirota, a Sanders surrogate, does as good a job as any of making a convincing argument for voting Biden to Biden skeptics.  

Or a better job, IMO, than browbeating and shaming people who are considering voting third party with insults and threats.  It's long but worth the read if you want another approach, and may have some good material for anyone phone banking.

Bonus: it's all rooted in a Ghostbusters 2 analogy.

[DMC]

26 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Or a better job, IMO, than browbeating and shaming people who are considering voting third party with insults and threats.

If I can't browbeat, shame, insult or threaten people during the process, then what the hell's the point?

[Larry of the Lawn]

32 minutes ago, DMC said:

If I can't browbeat, shame, insult or threaten people during the process, then what the hell's the point?

I didn't say it would be fun

[S John]

Anyone watch Biden’s townhall last night? I watched parts, thought he did OK. I feel like his answers get a bit rambly but I guess that comes with the territory with Biden and, well, also both candidates are old ass men. Trump’s meanderings are just as bad if not worse.

If I could give Biden one piece of advice - stop numbering stuff. People ask him how he would do x,y,z he says ‘well number one!..., number two!...’ 

I’m worried he’ll get to number three and be like, ‘fuck, I forgot number three’

[Fez]

11 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

I really do think they believe this. And this is the definition of privilege--having no clue what it feels like to have lived or currently live as a person of color in the US.

I do think Trumpism is that kind of last, wild attempt for a thing to save itself before it dies. It can be destructive, but it's going to be gone soon. It might take the boomers moving to the next world.

It's not the boomers. Right now Gen X is the strongest Trump supporting group. Most boomers are now senior citizens, the group that poll after poll shows Biden doing better with than any Democrat in decades.

The boomers do support Trump more than millennials and Gen Z does, so maybe once they're gone Gen X will be overwhelmed. But there's no guarantee that the next generation won't be Republican. I'd be surprised right now, but there's no telling what things will look like in 20-30 years. And it'll take that long for the boomers to not be a major voting bloc anymore.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, S John said:

I’m worried he’ll get to number three and be like, ‘fuck, I forgot number three’

He's gonna get Rick Perry'd!

NYT/Siena came out with their latest round of polls this morning.  They got Biden up 1 in NC and 9 in Arizona.  They also have Kelly up 8 and both Gideon and Cunningham up 5.  Only concerning thing about any of that is NC - and especially because it appears there's still quite a few undecideds there, which is weird.  EPIC-MRA also has Biden up 8 in Michigan.

[Maithanet]

I say this every election, but there's something about seeing people enthusiastic to vote that always makes me happy.  FYI 100k people have already voted in this election, mostly in North Carolina. 

[Ormond]

23 minutes ago, Fez said:

It's not the boomers. Right now Gen X is the strongest Trump supporting group. Most boomers are now senior citizens, the group that poll after poll shows Biden doing better with than any Democrat in decades.

The boomers do support Trump more than millennials and Gen Z does, so maybe once they're gone Gen X will be overwhelmed. But there's no guarantee that the next generation won't be Republican. I'd be surprised right now, but there's no telling what things will look like in 20-30 years. And it'll take that long for the boomers to not be a major voting bloc anymore.

And those of the "Silent Generation" (75 and older) who are still voting have traditionally been about the most Republican-leaning, way more than the Baby Boom. I don't know if anyone has separated out polling data for the upcoming election separately for those over 75 vs. the "young old" of the early Baby Boom.

Of course dividing things up by the normal generational lines is arbitrary, and the bit of data I've seen that looks at the party preferences in yearly cohorts has those born between 1950 and 1953 as being particularly Democratic, but the Republican upswing starts in 1960, four years before the Baby Boom ended. So the Republican oversupply is primarily among the youngest cohorts of Baby Boomers and the oldest cohorts of Generation X. 

[maarsen]

33 minutes ago, S John said:

Anyone watch Biden’s townhall last night? I watched parts, thought he did OK. I feel like his answers get a bit rambly but I guess that comes with the territory with Biden and, well, also both candidates are old ass men. Trump’s meanderings are just as bad if not worse.

If I could give Biden one piece of advice - stop numbering stuff. People ask him how he would do x,y,z he says ‘well number one!..., number two!...’ 

I’m worried he’ll get to number three and be like, ‘fuck, I forgot number three’

Eight, Eight, I can't remember what Eight is for!

[Fez]

21 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I say this every election, but there's something about seeing people enthusiastic to vote that always makes me happy.  FYI 100k people have already voted in this election, mostly in North Carolina. 

According to the Virginia BoE my absentee ballot was issued on Wednesday. I haven't noticed much in the way of slowed mail here, so I'm hoping I'll have it by tomorrow. Early next week at the latest.

And my understanding is that the state AG agreed to a settlement waiving the witness requirement, so I won't need to scramble to find a safe way of getting that done. The county Democratic party sent a volunteer when I needed a witness for a special election over the summer. But with turnout so much higher for a general election, I bet that would've been tougher to schedule this time around.

2 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Of course dividing things up by the normal generational lines is arbitrary, and the bit of data I've seen that looks at the party preferences in yearly cohorts has those born between 1950 and 1953 as being particularly Democratic, but the Republican upswing starts in 1960, four years before the Baby Boom ended. So the Republican oversupply is primarily among the youngest cohorts of Baby Boomers and the oldest cohorts of Generation X. 

The Carter and early Reagan years really did a number on the college-age and teenagers of the day. 

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I don't know if anyone has separated out polling data for the upcoming election separately for those over 75 vs. the "young old" of the early Baby Boom.

It's rare for most firms to separate out by generation, but it does happen every once in awhile.  I was looking at this Marist poll for Pennsylvania a few days ago, and they did it.  Interestingly, Biden was up 51/46 for the Silent Generation, while Trump was up 52/46 with Boomers and 49/48 with Gen Xers.  Of course that's just one poll of one state.

[S John]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I say this every election, but there's something about seeing people enthusiastic to vote that always makes me happy.  FYI 100k people have already voted in this election, mostly in North Carolina. 

My wife and I are gonna go vote after lunch today. I’ll report back if there’s anything notable about the experience.

[Kalbear]

Long lines are a symptom of a system that is broken, not a system that is good.

Also, this is the sort of thing I've occasionally alluded to without being able to be more specific for security reasons. It still remains beyond shocking to me that this is not front page news and making everyone want to hugely sanction Russia if not worse. 

 

 

[Zorral]

10 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

old age.  The majority of Trump's base are old white people - and they are dying in droves.

You're totally wrong about that.  Alas.