Who Was Big Walder's Accomplice?

[bemused]

Who Was Big Walder’s Accomplice ?

... Or maybe I should ask to whom was Big Walder an accomplice?

 I started this a while ago as a response in @TheLastWolf ‘s topic suggesting “Aenys Frey Killed Big Walder”.  (That might not be the exact title, sorry.) I realised pretty quickly that I had so much to say that it would be more like its own thread than a response to someone else’s. So, weeks later, here it is.

I think we can say that it’s generally accepted that the sheer amount of blood on Big Walder makes it plain that, if not the main perpetrator, he must have been present at the killing of Little Walder – involved in one way or another.

From ADWD, Theon I ...

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“The doors of the Great Hall opened with a crash. A cold wind came swirling through, and a cloud of ice crystals sparkled blue-white in the air. Through it strode Ser Hosteen Frey, caked with snow to the waist, a body in his arms. .... <snip>.... Snow slid from Ser Hosteen’s cloaks as he stalked toward the high table, his steps ringing against the floor. A dozen Frey knights and men-at-arms entered behind him. One was a boy Theon knew—Big Walder, the little one, fox-faced and skinny as a stick. His chest and arms and cloak were spattered with blood.

The scent of it set the horses to screaming. “

 

and...

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“The boy’s gloves were caked with his cousin’s blood. “

Because of the way it's written, it's particularly the blood on Big Walder that set the horses to screaming. (The horses' reaction immediately follows the description of the blood on BW.) For me, this blood seems relatively fresh – at least not frozen like the blood on the body, The word "caked" seems to express it's in the process of congealing, but not yet completely dry.

Why is Hosteen caked with snow, while Big Walder is not? Why is there no mention of the Frey knights and men-at-arms being caked in either snow or blood? … It seems obvious that only Hosteen went wading into and digging around in the snow to retrieve the body.

I’ll come back to this further on.

In the Aenys Frey thread, some suggested that the identity of the Hooded Man  might be a key consideration to take into account, but for me, it doesn't matter much to the question of who killed Little Walder. I don't think the HM had anything to do with the spate of killings inside Winterfell. … Nor would I accuse the spearwives (though maybe they were at least partially culpable in the case of the naked guy) … I don’t think we can argue that they were trying to foment chaos to provide cover for their escape when they hadn’t yet worked out what their escape plan would be.

Roose vs Ramsay inside Winterfell

The obvious tensions between the Frey and White Harbor contingents tend to overshadow the equally (if not more) dangerous tensions between Roose and Ramsay.

I’ve long thought that the killings up to and including Yellow Dick were the work of Ramsay, based, among other things, on Theon's feeling of deja vu - his first spontaneous thoughts on the string of killings in ADWD, A Ghost in Winterfell...

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“Then, before the day was done, a crossbowman sworn to the Flints turned up in the stables with a broken skull. Kicked by a horse, Lord Ramsay declared. A club, more like, Theon decided.

It all seemed so familiar, like a mummer show that he had seen before. Only the mummers had changed. Roose Bolton was playing the part that Theon had played the last time round, and the dead men were playing the parts of Aggar, Gynir Rednose, and Gelmarr the Grim. Reek was there too, he remembered, but he was a different Reek, a Reek with bloody hands and lies dripping from his lips, sweet as honey. Reek, Reek, it rhymes with sneak. “

 

In that previous case, Ramsay (as Reek) was the guilty party. In the present, I think Theon's subsequent suspicions (the HM, the spearwives) are simply a result of overthinking. … His harrowing conditioning as "Reek" cause him to be fearful of saying or perhaps even thinking anything against Ramsay,

Ramsay had been chafing at the bit to take the fight to Stannis since before they even left Barrowton. Roose disagreed. Once shut up inside Winterfell , Ramsay feels increasingly constrained by Roose and the presence of the other Houses – he can’t take the battle to Stannis on the road, can't go "hunting" , can't be as openly cruel to his new wife as he would like to be, has to put up with Barbrey Dustin, Wyman Manderly, and so on. To say the restrictions rankle would be a vast understatement.

If we suppose Ramsay is the killer in WF, of course Roose would find out about it. He knows Ramsay's character and he would have many sources of information close to Ramsay. We saw him question Theon in the presence of others, eventually dismissing him with advice …

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“He flicked his fingers at Theon. ‘You are free to go. Take care where you wander. Else it might be you we find upon the morrow, smiling a red smile.””

… but we don’t know who or how many he may have questioned privately and what parting advice or directives he may have given them.   

From ADWD, Reek III ...  

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“Bolton chuckled. "As if he had secrets. Sour Alyn, Luton, Skinner, and the rest, where does he think they came from? “Can he truly believe they are his men?"

First Roose and later Lady Dustin ask Theon to deliver important suggestions to Ramsay... 

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“The Cerwyns and the Tallharts are not to be relied on, my fat friend Lord Wyman plots betrayal, and Whoresbane … the Umbers may seem simple, but they are not without a certain low cunning. Ramsay should fear them all, as I do. The next time you see him, tell him that.”

“Tell him … tell him to be afraid?” Reek felt ill at the very thought of it. “M’lord, I … if I did that, he’d …”

... Reek III

 

And…

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"The bride weeps," Lady Dustin said, as they made their way down, step by careful step. "Our little Lady Arya."

Take care now. Take care, take care. He put one hand on the wall. The shifting torchlight made the steps seem to move beneath his feet. "As … as you say, m'lady."

 "Roose is not pleased. Tell your bastard that."...The Turncloak

 

Both of these are warnings originating from Roose. Theon knows all too well that he mustn't dare to be the bearer of such tidings, but Yellow Dick might not have had the same trepidation. Whatever YD has been to Ramsay - man-at-arms, lieutenant, boon companion - he has not been Ramsay's victim and of course, we know that he is really Roose's man. He wouldn’t have anything like Theon's fear of  Ramsay … or he might fear disobeying Roose more.

I think the fury expressed in the violence of  YD's murder answers Roose's question to Theon ... Yes, Ramsay truly did believe Yellow Dick was his man. The rage displayed by shoving YD's cock in his mouth hard enough to break teeth is gruesome … but just an extreme example of a classic punishment for deceit. … Ramsay’s rage continues, driving him to the brink of outright rebellion against Roose  by talking up the murder, offering a reward - when Roose specifically wanted it hushed up. (Roose didn't want fighting to break out inside WF, but didn't want to ease the tension by sending men out blindly, before receiving Arnolf's report.) That brings us to …

 The Walders and Roose

For a long time, I was sure that Roose was the accomplice who orchestrated and assisted in BW's apparent killing of LW. While Ramsay's men are all Roose's, the Walders have not been. Ramsay claimed them himself, taking them under his “protection” when he sacked Winterfell.

We've seen that Little Walder was fast becoming Ramsay's "best boy", so it seemed less likely that he would be swayed by Roose's intructions to tell Ramsay this or that - however, it’s not impossible. Then there’s Big Walder's ambition and cleverness … He would be able to figure that if anyone could help him to climb the order of succession to The Twins, it would be Roose. While LW wants to be Ramsay’s protégé in cruelty, BW shows a precocious tendency to cool calculation. Theon asks him about the missing Jared and Rhaegar in Reek III …

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"Did you find your cousins, my lord?"

"No. I never thought we would. They're dead. Lord Wyman had them killed. That's what I would have done if I was him."

 

But unlike Theon, who is wary of Roose , knowing “the son is but the shadow of the father” BW’s youth and relative inexperience would make him more susceptible to any vague promises of future help or gratitude coming from Roose.

Considering all that, the situation could be ripe for a quid pro quo between them. In theory, by involving Big Walder in the killing of Little Walder,  Roose would get rid of Ramsay's only remaining collaborator who was not under Roose’s control - keeping his hands clean, while bringing BW firmly into his camp. He may have hinted that he was willing to help remove other obstacles in BW’s path, and he might even do so if it suits his future plans. In the meantime, battle may be coming … and winter is hard on the young. Roose is always ready to adapt.

I still think this is all possible, but gradually, I began to see another possibility I now like more.

 The Walders and Ramsay

Now I think it's just as possible (if not more likely) that Ramsay, himself, was the mastermind/accomplice to BW. It's possible that Little Walder did something to cross a line with Ramsay. It's possible that he had assisted in the murder of Yellow Dick (and others) and couldn't be trusted to hold his tongue. Perhaps he already said something to BW ... worse, perhaps he answered questions put to him by Roose. …perhaps he relayed a suggestion or demand from Roose that Ramsay should call a halt to his activities.

Any of these might be enough to bring about an alliance between BW and Ramsay. I think BW would take the opportunity to remove one competitor from the field - or could be persuaded to (think of how Ramsay as “Reek” manipulated Theon) - especially if BW felt he had no choice but to play along.

The possible clues to this scenario are scattered throughout the Reek/Theon chapters. I'm going to begin in the middle, in The Prince of Winterfell at the wedding, where there's a passage that helps to tie some clues together. Theon is observing the guests.... 

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“The way the mists threw back the shifting light made their features seem bestial, half-human, twisted. Lord Stout became a mastiff, old Lord Locke a vulture, Whoresbane Umber a gargoyle, Big Walder Frey a fox, Little Walder a red bull, lacking only a ring for his nose. “

This hints at some truths about these characters and their motivations/intentions.

Lord Stout = mastiff = war dog

old Lord Lock = vulture = too old to be a warrior, waiting to feed off the corpses.

Whoresbane = gargoyle = wards off evil

Big Walder = fox = cunning, sly, quick, opportunistic

Little Walder = red bull = red= ruled by passions?... bull = powerful … but lacking a ring for his nose tells us he can't be led reliably/safely and so will be unpredictable.

Earlier, in Reek III, Roose asserted "Bulls are strong. Bears." (I'll give that whole quote in a minute)  Although the passage is about Ramsay, he isn’t being equated with a bull ... It's just a general statement of fact, but I think it's meant to come to mind when Theon sees LW as a bull, stressing LW is strong. 

As for Big Walder, the wedding scene is the first time he's likened to a fox, but later in Theon I, he's "fox faced and skinny as a stick"… not strong, then. Coming when it does, with BW suspiciously covered in blood, it reminds us that clever and scheming as he may be, BW should be no physical match for LW. 

In a nice twist, Ramsay's appearance is not likened to any beast, though he does appear to be practically salivating in anticipation of getting poor “Arya” in his clutches.

“A smile danced across his face. "Who comes?" His lips were moist, his neck red above his collar. "Who comes before the god?"”

The others may seem bestial, but we know that when Roose tells Ramsay,  “Your amusements are your own, I will not chide you on that count,” , he’s referring to behavior that we would call bestial … twisted. (And elsewhere Robbett Glover tells Davos that Ramsay "seems a beast in human form".)

So, adding to the case for Ramsay’s involvement, here's the pertinent quote I mentioned above from Reek III ...  

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“"He fights for you," Reek blurted out.  "He's strong."

"Bulls are strong. Bears. I have seen my bastard fight. He is not entirely to blame. Reek was his tutor, the first Reek, and Reek was never trained at arms. Ramsay is ferocious, I will grant you, but he swings that sword like a butcher hacking meat." “

 

And ahead in Theon I ... 

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“ "My brother Merrett's son." Hosteen Frey lowered the body to the floor before the dais. "Butchered like a hog and shoved beneath a snowbank. A boy." “

Ramsay uses his sword like a butcher and LW was butchered. I don't think this use of language can be a coincidence. ... and Hosteen’s final "A boy" reminds us that BW is a boy too (besides skinny as a stick) ... hardly capable of carrying the body to its destination and "shoving it beneath a snowbank". This last phrase, separated from “butchered like a hog by “and” informs us that the body was likely put there after being killed somewhere else, either close at hand or farther away.

Let's look at Ramsay's behaviour... 

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“ Lord Ramsay soon appeared as well, buckling on his sword belt as he made his way to the front of the hall. His mood is foul this morning. Theon could tell. The drums kept him awake all night, he guessed, or someone has displeased him.”

Probably more than one someone had displeased him. My guess is that LW displeased Ramsay somehow, and paid the price... and though Ramsay has been displeased with Roose since Barrowton,  imagine his mood if he has recently become aware that his men are obeying Roose’s bidding over his own…

I wonder if Ramsay is buckling on his sword belt having just got up and dressed, or if  he’s been up all night .. um .. expressing his displeasure and needed to change his clothes and clean his sword before going to the Great Hall?

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“Up on the dais, Ramsay was arguing with his father. They were too far away for Theon to make out any of the words, but the fear on Fat Walda’s round pink face spoke volumes.”

The action in the text, from the time Ramsay enters the hall, through the argument, to the confrontation over the body is overlaid or interspersed with Theon's thoughts, and a brief whispered exchange with “Abel” and the spearwives. This makes it feel like three separate mini-scenes or events, when it's really one sequence playing out. All of Theon's thoughts and remembrances take much less time to occur in his mind than it takes to articulate them. Many of them can occur simultaneously. 

So - Ramsay enters, makes his way to the dais and to judge from how little time has elapsed, immediately engages in an argument with Roose, terrifying Walda . Then Hosteen enters with the body. ... When  “The  doors to the Great Hall open(ed) with a crash”, it appears that interrupts the argument. Theon tells us nothing to indicate it was resolved or discontinued beforehand.

Theon can’t hear what the Boltons’ argument is about but “the fear on Fat Walda’s round pink face spoke volumes” tells us that it’s a very serious disagreement.

She may not be a warrior princess, but Walda hasn’t exactly been sheltered from the death and destruction that has been prevalent in at least the last few years. She was present at the Twins during the Red Wedding and its aftermath. She’s been aware of the ever changing order of succession of her House (and the attendant rumours). She would hardly be so terrified by yet another disagreement about whether or not to ride out to fight Stannis, or by the discovery of just another random body. There were corpses hanging and scattered around Winterfell when she arrived.

However, Little Walder was her younger brother. This would bring the horror very close to home. I think that some mention of his death during the argument is the only thing that could account for the fear on her face speaking volumes.

Simply the news that his body had been found would probably evoke shock and grief rather than fear. But accusations or admissions of involvement, or threats of retaliation by either Ramsay or Roose would very likely strike fear into her heart.

A little earlier…   

“Roose Bolton entered, pale-eyed and yawning, accompanied by his plump and pregnant wife, Fat Walda.”

 Roose is yawning, but the drums probably kept many people awake. …There seems to be nothing out of the ordinary here, just business as usual (of course, Roose is so deadpan it’s hard to be 100% certain). Still, I think Ramsay, in some manner, must have introduced the news of LW’s murder. This would mean that he had some knowledge of the murder prior to Hosteen’s entrance – either because he’d been told of it or because he was one of the perpetrators.

 But back to the arrival of the body…

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“…Hosteen Frey lowered the body to the floor before the dais. …<snip>…

 Lord Ramsay descended from the dais to the dead boy. His father rose more slowly, pale-eyed, still-faced, solemn. “This was foul work.” For once Roose Bolton’s voice was loud enough to carry.

“Where was the body found?”

“Under that ruined keep, my lord,” replied Big Walder. “The one with the old gargoyles.”  The boy’s gloves were caked with his cousin’s blood. “I told him not to go out alone, but he said he had to find a man who owed him silver.”

“What man?” Ramsay demanded. “Give me his name. Point him out to me, boy, and I will make you a cloak of his skin.”

“He never said, my lord. Only that he won the coin at dice.” The Frey boy hesitated. “It was some White Harbor men who taught dice. I couldn’t say which ones, but it was them.” “

 

 To me, the whole interrogation of Big Walder always had a suspiciously theatrical air, which is what got me to thinking about it in detail in the first place.

 It’s logical that Ramsay knows about the death before entering the great hall judging by Walda’s terror. He’s admitted to killing, even boasted of killing children to Roose before, in Barrowton. He’s ready to act when Hosteen enters, and “quickly descends” to the body.

 Because Roose  “rose more slowly, pale-eyed, still-faced, solemn” , I think he’s having to assess a new situation and formulate his own best response in real time … He tries to take charge by speaking more loudly than usual and his pronouncement, “This was foul work” , is almost melodramatic, seeming more like what he thinks he’s expected to say than his actual sentiment. (Remember how casually he told Theon about Domeric’s murder and the expected murders of Walda’s future offspring.) Roose, himself, is quite inured to “foul work”, but many present would not be. (See the general contempt for those who kill children.)

 If Roose is thinking on his feet “Where was the body found?” is a good starting question, one that might suggest things beyond the location and buy time to help him formulate the next question, proceeding step by step.

 Hosteen had carried the body in and had been the first to speak.. It would only be natural for Roose’s question to be directed to him (and I assume it was). … But Big Walder jumps right in, not only answering the question, but volunteering additional information without waiting to be asked… which in turn gives Ramsay the perfect opening to take control by demanding a name which conveniently leads to accusing White Harbor men - though not without some nervous hesitation from BW.  It’s a bit like an actor momentarily forgetting a line, or missing a cue and making up for it. … I think his story demands scrutiny.

 First, let’s remember the liar’s rule – to be believable, a lie should have some resemblance or connection to the truth. Let’s bear that in mind for a little later on.

 There have been three previous mentions of men dicing in Theon’s storyline… Lady Barbrey to Theon in The Prince of Winterfell… “Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men.”

 In The Turncloak… “the benches below the salt were never less than half-full with men drinking, dicing, talking, or sleeping in their clothes in quiet corners” .

 And in A Ghost in Winterfell …  “The Bastard's Boys gathered beneath a wall sconce where a torch was flaming smokily. Luton and Skinner were throwing dice.” 

 Only Luton and Skinner are ever identified throwing dice. Do we suppose Luton and Skinner are the only members of the “Bastard’s Boys” who dice? .  Now - the Walders have been with Ramsay about a year, or close to it. It would be strange if the Walders hadn’t picked up or been taught at least the rudiments of dicing in that time. Little Walder, at least, would certainly have been up for it.

And let’s not forget the boys are Freys. I don’t think Manderly’s men would be going out of their way to indulge them. (They’re not guests/spies in White Harbor.) … Also, let’s not forget that Ramsay knows the Frey / Manderly hostilities are close to boiling over and adding fuel to the fire might be the easiest way to force Roose to send men out. At the same time, BW’s whole story seems concocted and is played out in such a way as to let Ramsay take it where he wants it to go.

However, remembering the liar’s rule, some elements of the story really could have been “true” in the sense that they could have been used to lure LW to his end. Suppose it was Big Walder who said he had to see a man who owed him silver – perhaps Luton or Skinner … but he (being skinny as a stick) didn’t want to go out alone…What with the blizzard, the drums and warhorns, some convincing may have been necessary. Little Walder was bigger and stronger (and Lord Ramsay’s best boy, besides) wouldn’t he come along as back up? Luton or Skinner or whoever wouldn’t dare refuse to pay up if Ramsay’s favourite was with him. (It never hurts to boost a bully’s ego.)

If this sounds far-fetched, I ask you to remember Ramsay’s actions back in ACoK ; the deceptions, the murders, the schemes to “help” Theon that wound up getting Ramsay what he wanted… These are really quite “of-a-piece” with the possibility I’ve suggested .

 Ending Where We Started

Back to the blood and butchery. When we think of a body being butchered we probably think of many serious cuts or slashes being inflicted. That may indeed be true in the case of  Little Walder, though we don’t have an actual description of his wounds. But stop and think of  “butchered like a hog” and the blood on Big Walder.

When an animal is to be butchered, you’d probably start by slitting its throat. Any further “hacking” would come after it’s dead, or dying. I think the blood spattered on BW’s chest, arms and cloak would be consistent with BW being in front of LW while his throat is being slit by the actual “butcher” behind him. The blood “caked” on BW’s gloves suggests he may have been trying to keep LW’s arms from getting in the way, or maybe supporting the collapsing body, or a number of other scenarios, any of which could result in BW’s gloves being caked with his cousin’s blood.

(Yes, you can think of scenarios wherein BW wields the blade, but only if someone bigger and stronger was restraining the victim … and I still think “butchered” evokes numerous vicious blows.)

“Where was the body found?” is not the same thing as “Where was the boy killed?” We don’t know where the Walders were housed, but if Theon had a room, it’s likely the Walders did, too. As Walda’s relations and supposedly under Bolton protection, it’s unlikely they were housed in barracks with the common soldiers. I wonder if LW actually ever made it outside. (We don’t have a description of his clothing) For all we know BW may still have some cleaning up to do.

There may be a bit of foreshadowing back in ACoK, Theon IV… As Theon is arranging the hunting party to go after Bran and Rickon…

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“Reek arrived carrying a boar spear and an overstuffed washerwoman's sack bulging with god knows what.”  

In that case, “god knows what” was Bran and Rickon’s clothing in preparation (from the outset) for killing the miller’s sons. I wonder if a washerwoman’s sack might have been overstuffed with LW’s body to get from point A to the snowbank.

There are too many unanswered questions to know the exact how of it yet, but I think the fact that the blood on BW is not described as frozen while the blood on LW’s body is, means that BW waited for a time indoors before going for Hosteen - long enough for the body to be deposited and whatever else his accomplice/leader had to do - which was enough time for the blood covering the body to freeze.

To conclude, while I think you can still make a logical case for Roose being behind it, I doubt he would be quite so personally hands on in the situation he’s in. Of course, he could have designated an accomplice, but I can see no sign of any of his other men assisting skinny little BW.

Being personally hands on would only be a bonus for Ramsay.

[CamiloRP]

I always assumed Ramsay did it.

BW had little motive (yes, he did want to move up the line of succession, but doing it by killing someone who's like twentieth in line seems stupid, and BW is supposedly very smart) and it would be impossible to "butcher" LW who's twice his size and beats him at every physical challenge (lord of the crossing and jousting). He was there when LW was killed tho, as the blood on him shows.

My guess was that Ramsay killed SW to force Roose into sending out the Freys and the Manderlys, as Ramsay needs this forces spent so they don't cause him trouble by supporting a Stark or Walda's son as heir of WF. 

My version of events goes like this: Luton dices with LW, looses on purpose (is unlikely that a nine year old boy would win against a man) and promises to pay him latter that night. They meet, but BW is with him, Ramsay butchers LW and convinces BW to keep it a secret (by promisses or treats or both) and he even convinces BW to "discover" the corpse some time later, therefore instigating conflict. Then the whole thing happens and Ramsay offers BW a cloak made of the skin of the man who murdered LW, which sound like a treat towards him, a fight happens and Ramsay murders Luton to keep him quiet. Then Roose is forced to send Freys and Marnderlys outside.

I love all the other analysis you made tho! I never thought about Ramsay knowing the bastard's boys where his fathers men.

[GoldenGail3]

Ramsay. 

Big Walder is his squire and he's a blood thirsty leech. It serves within reason that Ramsay would do such things to rile up the Northmen and Freys. 

[TheLastWolf]

9 hours ago, bemused said:

I started this a while ago as a response in @TheLastWolf ‘s topic suggesting “Aenys Frey Killed Big Walder”.  (That might not be the exact title, sorry.)

No problem. 

 

9 hours ago, bemused said:

I realised pretty quickly that I had so much to say that it would be more like its own thread than a response to someone else’s.

Your choice. I wouldn't have done so, even if it was so long. But anyway, I'll reply later when I get time. Really big OP. 

[bemused]

8 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Ramsay murders Luton to keep him quiet.

This is interesting, for sure ..of course Luton was already badly wounded and screaming ... and we don't see how he got that wound but ... 

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one of the Bastard's Boys, Luton, was dying noisily, crying for his mother as he tried to shove a fistful of slimy entrails back through a gaping belly wound. Lord Ramsay silenced him, yanking a spear from one of Steelshanks's men and driving it down through Luton's chest.

"Lord Ramsay silenced him" could be taken more than one way, and both could be true. Theon's men who accompanied him and "Reek" to the mill were silenced in various ways back in ACoK.

2 hours ago, TheLastWolf said:

Your choice. I wouldn't have done so, even if it was so long. But anyway, I'll reply later when I get time. Really big OP. 

I'm always nervous about taking people's threads too far afield, or holding forth ad infinitum.

[CamiloRP]

5 hours ago, bemused said:

This is interesting, for sure ..of course Luton was already badly wounded and screaming ... and we don't see how he got that wound but ... 

He got a wound in a Manderly-Frey fight, why? Isn't he the only non Manderly or Frey who died? 

 

5 hours ago, bemused said:

"Lord Ramsay silenced him" could be taken more than one way, and both could be true. Theon's men who accompanied him and "Reek" to the mill were silenced in various ways back in ACoK.

That was the first line to point me towards this!

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, bemused said:

Who Was Big Walder’s Accomplice ?

... Or maybe I should ask to whom was Big Walder an accomplice?

 I started this a while ago as a response in @TheLastWolf ‘s topic suggesting “Aenys Frey Killed Big Walder”.  (That might not be the exact title, sorry.) I realised pretty quickly that I had so much to say that it would be more like its own thread than a response to someone else’s. So, weeks later, here it is.

I think we can say that it’s generally accepted that the sheer amount of blood on Big Walder makes it plain that, if not the main perpetrator, he must have been present at the killing of Little Walder – involved in one way or another.

This may be generally accepted but it's completely wrong. The reason the blood is "caked" on his hands and "spattered" on his arms, chest and cloak is that he dug the body out of the snow. And no, the body is not frozen solid -- just some pink hoarfrost and frozen blood on the outside, which could easily have happened  in the minutes-long slog through the snow from the old tower to the great hall.

Big Walder is neither the killer nor the accomplice.

[bemused]

3 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

He got a wound in a Manderly-Frey fight, why? Isn't he the only non Manderly or Frey who died? 

Yup. The text enumerates the Frey and Manderly casualties and "one of the Bastard's boys" dying noisily. Very suspicious.

So I think your theory is entirely plausible, and there certainly would have been time for Luton to be involved. It's just not completely clear how much he could reveal. It might just be that he had been the one to teach LW or both boys how to play dice. That alone would be enough to expose BW's story as false.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The reason the blood is "caked" on his hands and "spattered" on his arms, chest and cloak is that he dug the body out of the snow. And no, the body is not frozen solid -- just some pink hoarfrost and frozen blood on the outside

I never claimed the body was frozen solid. I don't even think there has been time for rigor mortis to have completely developed. That surely would have been noticeable to the observer (Theon). I don't buy the "digging the body out of the snow" explanation for the blood on BW (I've seen it said elsewhere, but don't know if it was you) ... To my mind, a liquid that soaks into snow would necessarily be diluted from that point on and wouldn't act in the same way. It would be much less viscous and much less likely to reach a state that could be described as "caked".

What was Hosteen doing to get "caked with snow to the waist" if not digging the body out, and why is BW not similarly caked with snow? It's just not very convincing to me.

[CamiloRP]

1 minute ago, bemused said:

Yup. The text enumerates the Frey and Manderly casualties and "one of the Bastard's boys" dying noisily. Very suspicious.

So I think your theory is entirely plausible, and there certainly would have been time for Luton to be involved. It's just not completely clear how much he could reveal. It might just be that he had been the one to teach LW or both boys how to play dice. That alone would be enough to expose BW's story as false.

Oh that's a nice point too!

 

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

This may be generally accepted but it's completely wrong. The reason the blood is "caked" on his hands and "spattered" on his arms, chest and cloak is that he dug the body out of the snow. And no, the body is not frozen solid -- just some pink hoarfrost and frozen blood on the outside, which could easily have happened  in the minutes-long slog through the snow from the old tower to the great hall.

Big Walder is neither the killer nor the accomplice.

What you say in the first paragraph might be true, but that's not the only thing that points to BW being the accomplice remember he lied about White Harbor men teaching dice to LW, it's unlikely that happened as WH men hate Freys and LW likely dislikes them too, plus he was close with Ramsay's men, whom we see playing dice. So, why would he lie if he had nothing to do with it?

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, bemused said:

I never claimed the body was frozen solid. I don't even think there has been time for rigor mortis to have completely developed. That surely would have been noticeable to the observer (Theon). I don't buy the "digging the body out of the snow" explanation for the blood on BW (I've seen it said elsewhere, but don't know if it was you) ... To my mind, a liquid that soaks into snow would necessarily be diluted from that point on and wouldn't act in the same way. It would be much less viscous and much less likely to reach a state that could be described as "caked".

What was Hosteen doing to get "caked with snow to the waist" if not digging the body out, and why is BW not similarly caked with snow? It's just not very convincing to me.

The body is leaking blood into the snow, where it is congealing, becoming more viscous, due to the cold. Walder digs through this congealed bloody snow to get the body out -- viola, caked blood on his gloves. If B Walder is the killer and slashed at LW to spatter blood all over himself, then how could the blood cake onto his hands? Did he try to staunch the wound that he just caused? And why is it that no one else in the room, let alone Hosteen who came upon this body before LW had time to change out of his bloody clothes, thinks twice about the fact that the boy accusing the Manderlys of murder has the victim's blood all over his body?

Hosteen first had to get to the broken tower, with LW behind him, then carry the body back through the waist-deep snow. Remember Theon's visit to the crypts, where they had to slog though "a smooth, unbroken expanse of white that came halfway up their calves." The broken tower is right near the crypts, and there are no paths in that part of the castle (why would there be?). And immediately after the fight in the great hall, Theon and Rowan head outside where ". . . the snow still fell. The snowmen the squires had built had grown into monstrous giants, ten feet tall and hideously misshapen. White walls rose to either side as he and Rowan made their way to the godswood." So sure, Hosteen has snow to his waist while BW does not.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Oh that's a nice point too!

 

What you say in the first paragraph might be true, but that's not the only thing that points to BW being the accomplice remember he lied about White Harbor men teaching dice to LW, it's unlikely that happened as WH men hate Freys and LW likely dislikes them too, plus he was close with Ramsay's men, whom we see playing dice. So, why would he lie if he had nothing to do with it?

How do you know that was a lie? If White Harbor men hate Freys, which is a generalization to begin with, then what better way to screw with them than teach them dice and take their money?

And if you look closely, BW never says it was a White Harbor man that LW was going to meet. Just that it was a man who owed him silver that he won at dice. Only then does he add that "It was some White Harbor men who taught dice." He never even claims it was a WH man who taught LW to dice. It seems to me that if BW was an accomplice here, then he would make a more direct accusation: "He went to collect silver he won at dice from a White Harbor man."

[CamiloRP]

3 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

How do you know that was a lie? If White Harbor men hate Freys, which is a generalization to begin with, then what better way to screw with them than teach them dice and take their money?

It may be a generalization, but it's likely true, and also LW is a bully and a kid, why would grown men want to hang out with him?

But even then, that's not the only thing I said, LW treats everyone like crap and has little reason to like WH men, he hangs with the bastard's boys, who probably talk shit about WH men. He might also suspect WM killed three of his family members, like his cousin does.

So, WH men have no reason to hang out with LW and LW has no reason to hang out with WH men. And if their plan was to take money from him it backfired, as he won, despite being a nine year old child who's considered quite dumb and was just learning the game.

 

21 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And if you look closely, BW never says it was a White Harbor man that LW was going to meet. Just that it was a man who owed him silver that he won at dice. Only then does he add that "It was some White Harbor men who taught dice."

We actually see the bastard's boys playing dice more than once and (unless I forgot) we never see WH men playing dice. So why would LW play dice with the WH men instead of his "friends"?

Furthermore, if he's not claiming that he was going to meet WH men, he's just adding that to make it sound that way, wouldn't that be a lie of omission? Why would he lie if he wasn't an accomplice? 

Also, let's look at how he says it:

Quote

"He never said, my lord. Only that he won the coin at dice." The Frey boy hesitated. "It was some White Harbor men who taught dice. I couldn't say which ones, but it was them."

He hesitates between the two lines! This could mean that the part after the hesitation is a lie.

 

32 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

It seems to me that if BW was an accomplice here, then he would make a more direct accusation: "He went to collect silver he won at dice from a White Harbor man."

"The bests lies have bits of truth in them". He can just hint and create the same chaos, which is what happened, instead of making a claim so direct, there's no need.

[Moiraine Sedai]

Big Walder is too smart to trust an accomplice.  He could open himself to extortion later on.  He's also too smart to physically take on the bigger boy himself.  Something to help him in that regard is milk of the poppy.  Anything to lessen his exposure to risk.  A better examination of the corpse would help.  The smaller boy would use drugs to weaken little Walder.  A bolt from a crossbow to make the initial damage followed by daggers would work.  

[CamiloRP]

21 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Big Walder is too smart to trust an accomplice.  He could open himself to extortion later on.  He's also too smart to physically take on the bigger boy himself.  Something to help him in that regard is milk of the poppy.  Anything to lessen his exposure to risk.  A better examination of the corpse would help.  The smaller boy would use drugs to weaken little Walder.  A bolt from a crossbow to make the initial damage followed by daggers would work.  

If he's os smart, why would he kill LW in that situation? Doesn't he know that it would likely cause a divide between allied forces and likely send not only his army, but him to the battlefield? what does he win by that? LW is only 17th in the order of succession (maybe, succession is messy) while BW is 26th, does he plan to kill 24 more people? that doesn't seem like the plan of a smart guy. LW's death brings BW more trouble than benefits.

Also, look at the way he was killed, he was butchered like a pig, why would BW do that? we get no indication that he's violent in that way, wouldn't a poisoning or a sneaky stab or a crossbow bolt from aside be better options, more fitting with his style? If he poisoned him to make him weaker, why not just kill him with poison?

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

It may be a generalization, but it's likely true, and also LW is a bully and a kid, why would grown men want to hang out with him?

But even then, that's not the only thing I said, LW treats everyone like crap and has little reason to like WH men, he hangs with the bastard's boys, who probably talk shit about WH men. He might also suspect WM killed three of his family members, like his cousin does.

So, WH men have no reason to hang out with LW and LW has no reason to hang out with WH men. And if their plan was to take money from him it backfired, as he won, despite being a nine year old child who's considered quite dumb and was just learning the game.

 

We actually see the bastard's boys playing dice more than once and (unless I forgot) we never see WH men playing dice. So why would LW play dice with the WH men instead of his "friends"?

Furthermore, if he's not claiming that he was going to meet WH men, he's just adding that to make it sound that way, wouldn't that be a lie of omission? Why would he lie if he wasn't an accomplice? 

Also, let's look at how he says it:

He hesitates between the two lines! This could mean that the part after the hesitation is a lie.

 

"The bests lies have bits of truth in them". He can just hint and create the same chaos, which is what happened, instead of making a claim so direct, there's no need.

Well, if you were actually good at dice but can pretend to be taught by someone in order to cheat them out of money, would you do this to people you like or people you don't like? Consequently, if you thought someone was a novice at dice and ripe for the picking, would this be your own man or someone else's?

He hesitates, so this could mean it was a lie. Or, he hesitates because it is a thought that just occurred to him. If he was lying, it's more likely that he would have the lie all ready to go, and it would be more than just an implication but a certainty that he was off to meet some White Harbor men.

But let's also look at motivation here. Why would BW want to kill LW? The most common theory is that BW is planning to become Lord of the Crossing someday, so he has to remove any potential rivals. But he is probably 30-odd places down the list, so this murder spree would take decades to play out and lead right through his own father (and brother, I think), but also some very dangerous men, like Black Walder and Hosteen himself. And he chooses this moment, in this already tense situation, to begin this quest?

Alternately, BW is trying to start a war with the Manderlys. Really? Why would he want that? Division within Winterfell is very likely to lead to his own death or captivity. Or if this is all Hosteen's plan, would he really kill his own blood in order to avenge the deaths of his own blood?

If you look closely, you'll see who is really the beneficiary of this murder, which took place shortly after the crypts were opened and an army was about to gather outside the castle walls.  

[CamiloRP]

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, if you were actually good at dice but can pretend to be taught by someone in order to cheat them out of money, would you do this to people you like or people you don't like? Consequently, if you thought someone was a novice at dice and ripe for the picking, would this be your own man or someone else's?

I don't believe LW is smart enough to pull this off. He's not just a nine year old boy, he's also a dumb nine year old boy. But you claim that he either tricked adult men who have avery reason to distrust him or was better at playing a game he presumably just learn than grown man that have been playing it for a long time?

Also, why do the WH men trust LW in scenario one? Why would LW trust the WH men in scenario two?

 

8 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

He hesitates, so this could mean it was a lie. Or, he hesitates because it is a thought that just occurred to him. If he was lying, it's more likely that he would have the lie all ready to go, and it would be more than just an implication but a certainty that he was off to meet some White Harbor men.

But let's also look at motivation here. Why would BW want to kill LW? The most common theory is that BW is planning to become Lord of the Crossing someday, so he has to remove any potential rivals. But he is probably 30-odd places down the list, so this murder spree would take decades to play out and lead right through his own father (and brother, I think), but also some very dangerous men, like Black Walder and Hosteen himself. And he chooses this moment, in this already tense situation, to begin this quest?

Alternately, BW is trying to start a war with the Manderlys. Really? Why would he want that? Division within Winterfell is very likely to lead to his own death or captivity. Or if this is all Hosteen's plan, would he really kill his own blood in order to avenge the deaths of his own blood?

I never claimed any of this, my theory is that Ramsay did the murder and convinced BW to lie by promises or threats, read my other comments. That's why Ramsey seems to threaten BW "I'll make a cloak of his skin." That's also why Luton dies out of fucking nowhere (in my opinion) and the text even says that "Ramsay silenced him." And GRRM does love double meaning. 

 

12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

If you look closely, you'll see who is really the beneficiary of this murder, which took place shortly after the crypts were opened and an army was about to gather outside the castle walls.  

The spearwives deny murdering LW while confessing to the other murders, why would they do that? They also seem to hate Theon for killing children. I believe them when they say they didn't kill LW.

[John Suburbs]

On 9/24/2020 at 10:50 AM, CamiloRP said:

I don't believe LW is smart enough to pull this off. He's not just a nine year old boy, he's also a dumb nine year old boy. But you claim that he either tricked adult men who have avery reason to distrust him or was better at playing a game he presumably just learn than grown man that have been playing it for a long time?

Also, why do the WH men trust LW in scenario one? Why would LW trust the WH men in scenario two?

 

I never claimed any of this, my theory is that Ramsay did the murder and convinced BW to lie by promises or threats, read my other comments. That's why Ramsey seems to threaten BW "I'll make a cloak of his skin." That's also why Luton dies out of fucking nowhere (in my opinion) and the text even says that "Ramsay silenced him." And GRRM does love double meaning. 

 

The spearwives deny murdering LW while confessing to the other murders, why would they do that? They also seem to hate Theon for killing children. I believe them when they say they didn't kill LW.

Where do you get the idea that LW is dumb?

Quote

The lord got to knock anyone in the water anytime he pleased, and he was the only one who got to use a stick.

In practice, the game seemed to come down to mostly shoving, hitting, and falling in the water, along with a lot of loud arguments about whether someone had said "Mayhaps." Little Walder was lord of the crossing more often than not.

He may not be a genius, but he's pretty shrewd.

And don't forget, this is not the first time LW has been around White Harbor men.

Quote

There were guests at Winterfell, visitors come for the harvest feast. This morning they would be tilting at quintains in the yard. Once that prospect would have filled him with excitement, but that was before. Not now. The Walders would break lances with the squires of Lord Manderly's escort . . .

and a few moments later we see them doing exactly that:

Quote

The White Harbor lordlings would emerge later in the morning, with their knights and men-at-arms. Until then, the yard belong to their squires, who ranged in age from ten to forty.

. . .

Two quintains had been erected in the courtyard, each a stout post supporting a spinning crossbeam with a shield on one end and a padded butt at the other.

. . .

The Walders were mounting up, he saw.

So there is plenty of reason for the White Harbor men to dice with LW, especially since he is just a little boy and they are trying to cheat him. No trust necessary. And there is plenty of reason to think that LW already knows how to dice, having learned from Ramsay's men, and is looking to cheat the WH men right back.

And sorry, but I have a lot of problems with the Ramsay theory too. Why would Ramsay want to decimate his own forces just as Stannis is nearing on Winterfell? Wouldn't this be better accomplished with a carefully crafted battle strategy, like Roose did on the Green Fork?

But on a more practical note: If Ramsay is the killer, whose blood is all over BW's hands, chest and cloak? And by all accounts, BW seemed like a fairly decent kid, as far as Freys go. How likely is it that after seeing Rams "butcher" his own cousin in cold blood, that he would be induced by treats and promises to take part in this scheme designed to get more Freys killed? As Reek noted earlier:

Quote

Little Walder had become Lord Ramsay's best boy and grew more like him every day, but the smaller Frey was made of different stuff and seldom took part in his cousin's games and cruelties.

So it wouldn't it make more sense for Rams to kill Big Walder and then con Little Walder into lying about it?

I think what we'll find is that this is all pretty straight-forward. Lady Dustin's ruse at the crypts was to gain access to the secret entrance down there. Then the murders started and Theon encounters the hooded man. The HM is LW's killer, which predictably results in bloodshed between the two houses that have no love for one another, which forces Roose sends WH men and Freys outside to confront Stannis. So now, the two key elements in Roose's hold over Winterfell -- his men and the Freys -- are now separated: with the Freys outside surrounded by northmen and the Boltons inside surrounded by northmen. Forget the Battle of Ice; forget the holes in the frozen lake: Stannis should be able to just walk into Winterfell -- if all the rest goes as planned.

[CamiloRP]

36 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Where do you get the idea that LW is dumb?

The way he's written.

 

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The lord got to knock anyone in the water anytime he pleased, and he was the only one who got to use a stick.

In practice, the game seemed to come down to mostly shoving, hitting, and falling in the water, along with a lot of loud arguments about whether someone had said "Mayhaps." Little Walder was lord of the crossing more often than not.

He may not be a genius, but he's pretty shrewd.

In practice the game is about shoving and hitting, LW is the biggest one and probably the strongest one, that's why he's often the lord.

 

34 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And don't forget, this is not the first time LW has been around White Harbor men.

Fair, completely forgot about that.

 

Quote

So there is plenty of reason for the White Harbor men to dice with LW, especially since he is just a little boy and they are trying to cheat him. No trust necessary. And there is plenty of reason to think that LW already knows how to dice, having learned from Ramsay's men, and is looking to cheat the WH men right back.

You have no evidence they where trying to cheat him, and if they where they're actually incredibly dumb, as a nine year old beat them. Even if he was the smartest nine year old in the world and had a full year of practice, it's still weird that he would beat a bunch of older and more experienced men.

 

Quote

And sorry, but I have a lot of problems with the Ramsay theory too. Why would Ramsay want to decimate his own forces just as Stannis is nearing on Winterfell? Wouldn't this be better accomplished with a carefully crafted battle strategy, like Roose did on the Green Fork?

Roose keeps The North because his forces plus the Freys's forces are much bigger than the rest of The North convined, so he needs to do the same as he did in the WOT5K, but keeping safe the dreadfort men and the Freys. Ramsay is the lord of Winterfell, a castle with no army, while Fat Walda's son will inherit the Dreadfort, which has an army, so Ramsay keeps claiming he's the heir of the Dreadfort over and over, which wouldn't go well with the Freys. At that point Ramsay would have the whole North against him plus the Freys against him, in the best case scenario he has the Dreadfort men, but still that's too little. So his best interest is to spend the Frey forces so they have no claim over the Dreadfort, which probably has the biggest army,and then go from there. But Roose's best interest is to spend everyone's forces but the Frey's and the Dreadfort men, and Roose is the one who commands the forces, not Ramsay. 

By killing LW he forces Roose's hand, and he now has to send the Frey's and the Manderly's out, and then he would spend the rest of the northerner houses by himself, so Ramsay could rule The North with only the support of the Dreadfort men.

 

Quote

But on a more practical note: If Ramsay is the killer, whose blood is all over BW's hands, chest and cloak? And by all accounts, BW seemed like a fairly decent kid, as far as Freys go. How likely is it that after seeing Rams "butcher" his own cousin in cold blood, that he would be induced by treats and promises to take part in this scheme designed to get more Freys killed? As Reek noted earlier:

I don't think he's a decent kid, he wants to be lord of The Twins, which likely means he wants a lot of his family members to die.

I think the blood over BW is LW, I think he was present when Ramsay killed him and Ramsay convinced him not to say anything.

BW knows what Ramsay is capable off, so I assume he would be quite scared of him, I would, and if he threatened BW, he would do anything to not let the threats come true.

 

48 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So it wouldn't it make more sense for Rams to kill Big Walder and then con Little Walder into lying about it?

BW is probably better at lying, also Hosteen would care a whole bunch more about LW than BW, also, it poinst away from Ramsay, which is nice for him.

 

Quote

Lady Dustin's ruse at the crypts was to gain access to the secret entrance down there.

The secret entrance is to the crypts, not to Winterfell from the outside, so why does she want it?

Quote

Then the murders started and Theon encounters the hooded man. The HM is LW's killer,

The murders where almost certainly committed by the spearwives.

Quote

which predictably results in bloodshed between the two houses that have no love for one another, which forces Roose sends WH men and Freys outside to confront Stannis.

If there's a BNC the Manderlys are pretty obviously a part of it, why would they want to frame themselves, star a fight that causes more of them to die than anyother, and then be forced outside? Why not frame Ramsay and start a conflict between both their enemies? They could have murdered Fat Walda and framed Ramsay, that would've been better.

 

Why does Luton die in the conflict? He probably wasn't fighting, yet he died, why? Why does Ramsay make such a scene of the murder? Why does he seem to threaten BW?

 

[John Suburbs]

On 9/25/2020 at 1:19 PM, CamiloRP said:

The way he's written.

 

In practice the game is about shoving and hitting, LW is the biggest one and probably the strongest one, that's why he's often the lord.

 

Fair, completely forgot about that.

 

You have no evidence they where trying to cheat him, and if they where they're actually incredibly dumb, as a nine year old beat them. Even if he was the smartest nine year old in the world and had a full year of practice, it's still weird that he would beat a bunch of older and more experienced men.

 

Roose keeps The North because his forces plus the Freys's forces are much bigger than the rest of The North convined, so he needs to do the same as he did in the WOT5K, but keeping safe the dreadfort men and the Freys. Ramsay is the lord of Winterfell, a castle with no army, while Fat Walda's son will inherit the Dreadfort, which has an army, so Ramsay keeps claiming he's the heir of the Dreadfort over and over, which wouldn't go well with the Freys. At that point Ramsay would have the whole North against him plus the Freys against him, in the best case scenario he has the Dreadfort men, but still that's too little. So his best interest is to spend the Frey forces so they have no claim over the Dreadfort, which probably has the biggest army,and then go from there. But Roose's best interest is to spend everyone's forces but the Frey's and the Dreadfort men, and Roose is the one who commands the forces, not Ramsay. 

By killing LW he forces Roose's hand, and he now has to send the Frey's and the Manderly's out, and then he would spend the rest of the northerner houses by himself, so Ramsay could rule The North with only the support of the Dreadfort men.

 

I don't think he's a decent kid, he wants to be lord of The Twins, which likely means he wants a lot of his family members to die.

I think the blood over BW is LW, I think he was present when Ramsay killed him and Ramsay convinced him not to say anything.

BW knows what Ramsay is capable off, so I assume he would be quite scared of him, I would, and if he threatened BW, he would do anything to not let the threats come true.

 

BW is probably better at lying, also Hosteen would care a whole bunch more about LW than BW, also, it poinst away from Ramsay, which is nice for him.

 

The secret entrance is to the crypts, not to Winterfell from the outside, so why does she want it?

The murders where almost certainly committed by the spearwives.

If there's a BNC the Manderlys are pretty obviously a part of it, why would they want to frame themselves, star a fight that causes more of them to die than anyother, and then be forced outside? Why not frame Ramsay and start a conflict between both their enemies? They could have murdered Fat Walda and framed Ramsay, that would've been better.

 

Why does Luton die in the conflict? He probably wasn't fighting, yet he died, why? Why does Ramsay make such a scene of the murder? Why does he seem to threaten BW?

 

Lol, no evidence that anyone was trying to cheat him. And yet you have evidence that LW is a dolt? That the game is just about hitting and shoving and not winning the arguments over who said Mayhaps? That Ramsay is so worried about the Dreadfort that he is willing to get himself slaughtered by Stannis right now? That he would risk his whole plan being blown just on the hunch that he can coopt BW? That Hosteen wouldn't protect BW and try to kill Ramsay if he knew who really killed LW?

LW is nine, and he thinks he's good at dice. Who better than to cheat, not knowing, of course, that LW has been dicing with experts for some time and is more than able to outcheat a cheater who takes him lightly.

So BW is present at the murder but did not commit the murder. That means when Ramsay stabbed him, all the blood gushed out of the wound to cake all over BW's hands, bypassing Ramsay entirely? Sorry, try again.

If there is a secret entrance to the crypts, then it stands to reason that it is also a secret entrance into Winterfell. Because, you know, you can get into Winterfell from the crypts.

Yes, the spearwives committed the first murders, but not LW. Someone else did that.

Who knows if there is a BNC (or a GNC, as I've heard it called), or what it entails if it does exist? Even if the Manderlys are in on this, they wouldn't expect anyone to pin the murder on them directly, nor that it would lead to their lord getting slashed. But it does lead to Manderlys and Freys outside the castle, along with multiple other lords, while inside the castle the Boltons are surrounded by northern lords as well . . . One of the most basic rules of warfare is to split your opponent's forces. And even if Roose does outnumber the northern forces inside the castle, all it takes is one open gate to correct that situation. Sorry, but this is far more plausible than Ramsay is going to weaken himself in the fight with Stannis just to strengthen himself for the off-chance that he will have to contend for the Dreadfort someday. Ramsay will get plenty of men to hold Winterfell. Why would Roose leave him there all alone? And there will be plenty of time afterward to deal with any little Boltons, as Roose fully expects Ramsay to do.

Dreadfort men were trying to break up the fighting, and Luton is a Dreadfort man. For someone who disputes ideas simply because there is no evidence, you seem perfectly content to submit plenty of your own evidence-free ideas.

[CamiloRP]

49 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, no evidence that anyone was trying to cheat him.

You said thtat they wanted to cheat him, not me.

 

Quote

And yet you have evidence that LW is a dolt? That the game is just about hitting and shoving and not winning the arguments over who said Mayhaps?

If it was about the argument, why wouldn't BW win? He's the smartest. No, this seems to be a theme: BW is the better horseman, but LW wins at jousting bc he's bigger. BW is more fit for ruling and older, yet LW is ahead of him in the order of succession. BW is smarter, and therefore he should win a game about tricking your opponent more frequently, yet the game also involves pushing (I assume that after you say "mayhaps" you can try and take the castle, but the opponent has a right to defend it, and that's when the shoving starts) and LW is way more fit for shoving than BW, so again, BW seems to be better at the game, yet he loses.

 

Quote

That Ramsay is so worried about the Dreadfort that he is willing to get himself slaughtered by Stannis right now?

Ramsay won't go on the battle, Manderlys and Freys will go. Neither Ramsay, nor Roose seriously consider Stannis winning, so he's just spending his enemies forces. Like Roose did in TWOT5K.

 

Quote

That he would risk his whole plan being blown just on the hunch that he can coopt BW?

It's not that big a risk, since Ramsay has a way with people, and Ramsay has done similar things before. He went hunting with no company other than Reek in a forest where people where waring against him.

 

Quote

LW is nine, and he thinks he's good at dice. Who better than to cheat, not knowing, of course, that LW has been dicing with experts for some time and is more than able to outcheat a cheater who takes him lightly.

It seems like a ridiculous motion to have a not particularly smart kid with close to no experience beat a bunch of grown men with experience, why would GRRM write that, LW is the brute, not the brain, BW is the brain, if he had pulled this off it would make sense, but what you claim goes against logic and characterization. 

 

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So BW is present at the murder but did not commit the murder. That means when Ramsay stabbed him, all the blood gushed out of the wound to cake all over BW's hands, bypassing Ramsay entirely?

It has happened enough time that LW's blood has frozen. Ramsay could have cleaned himself while BW was occupied hiding the body, tho while he was hiding it he got caught by Hosteen and claimed to be uncovering it. Otherwise, why is he the only one caked with blood? Hosteen is the one carrying the corpse.

 

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Sorry, try again.

No need to be rude.

 

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If there is a secret entrance to the crypts, then it stands to reason that it is also a secret entrance into Winterfell. Because, you know, you can get into Winterfell from the crypts.

The crypts are inside Winterfell. The entrance to the crypts is inside Winterfell. It's likely the same entrance.

 

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Who knows if there is a BNC (or a GNC, as I've heard it called), or what it entails if it does exist? Even if the Manderlys are in on this, they wouldn't expect anyone to pin the murder on them directly, nor that it would lead to their lord getting slashed. But it does lead to Manderlys and Freys outside the castle, along with multiple other lords, while inside the castle the Boltons are surrounded by northern lords as well

You claimed that it was a plan to have the Manderlys kill the Freys while the other northerners kill the Boltons. This plan could only make sense if the Manderlys are a part of it, so why frame themselves instead of framing an enemy?

 

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One of the most basic rules of warfare is to split your opponent's forces. And even if Roose does outnumber the northern forces inside the castle, all it takes is one open gate to correct that situation.

It would be even better to have Stannis, Bolton and Freys kill eachother. As all are people that the members of the proposed conspiracy have no reason to like.

 

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Sorry, but this is far more plausible than Ramsay is going to weaken himself in the fight with Stannis just to strengthen himself for the off-chance that he will have to contend for the Dreadfort someday.

He's not weakening himself in the fight with Stannis tho, if that where the case, Roose wouldn't have sent his forces outside, everyone believes that they'll win. Also Ramsay really wants the Dreadfort, as he keeps claiming to be it's heir over and over.

 

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Ramsay will get plenty of men to hold Winterfell. Why would Roose leave him there all alone?

Any army that Roose leaves him would still pale in comparison to the rest of the northerner armies, unless he has the whole army of the Dreadfort, which seems to be about as big as the other northerner armies combined. And since no one in The North likes him, they will kill him with ease.

 

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And there will be plenty of time afterward to deal with any little Boltons, as Roose fully expects Ramsay to do.

Ramsay can't be sure of that. After all, it would be hard to kill anyone if he's in Winterfell and they're in the Dreadfort.

 

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Dreadfort men were trying to break up the fighting, and Luton is a Dreadfort man.

But Luton is a bastard boy. Bastard's boys are absolute dicks, why would he care about the fighting? why would he risk his life for people he cares little about? Also, we only hear of nine death's in the conflict: Six White Harbor men, two Freys and Luton, he's the only one who dies who wasn't a part of the conflict. Isn't that suspicious?

 

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For someone who disputes ideas simply because there is no evidence, you seem perfectly content to submit plenty of your own evidence-free ideas.

Again, no need to be rude, but also I presented a lot of evidence for this case, not only based on the actions but based on how the text is written, you are welcome to read again. If you don't find the evidence convincing then, fine by me, do as you will, but don't claim I haven't any, because that is simply not true.