NBA Playoffs 2020: Mamba Out

[Red Tiger]

14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

They were very good, but I do think that the game passed them by without it being super obvious.  The reason the Clippers won so many games and always underachieved in the postseason was that two of their big 3 were throwbacks to the 00s.  When GSW came along and clearly outclassed them, they responded by trying to physically dominate the Warriors.  And to some extent, they could.  Certainly Paul/Griffin/Jordan could be far more physical than Curry/Thompson/Green (or if you prefer, Curry/Green/Bogut).  But that didn't matter.  The Warriors were getting physically manhandled and still winning, because they were playing modern basketball.

All of this, plus they had a tendency to peak in the regular season and do quite poorly in the playoffs. Dunks and explosive play work fine in the regular season, but post-moves and fundamentals will give you success in the playoffs, partially because opposing teams will shut the former down. It's one of the things LeBron learned the hard way when he faced Dallas in 2011 and why he went to Olajuwon to fix that.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Vaughn said:

I'd like Harden to get on the Heat, mostly for reverse chemistry / team implosion reasons.

I recall who did it, but there was a study that showed Harden played worse on the road in cities with highly rated strip clubs. Him in Miami would be a bad idea.

[Red Tiger]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I recall who did it, but there was a study that showed Harden played worse on the road in cities with highly rated strip clubs. Him in Miami would be a bad idea.

Holy shit, you weren't kidding.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/dt0ucg/i_analyzed_james_hardens_performance_in_every_nba/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Red Tiger said:

Holy shit, you weren't kidding.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/dt0ucg/i_analyzed_james_hardens_performance_in_every_nba/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

It's why I thought the Rockets might surprise some people in the bubble. 

[Rhom]

The details are spread out over several Shams Charia tweets, so I’m not sure if I’ve got it all; but the bucks are sending Bledsoe and George Hill and three first round picks to NO for Jrue Holiday.

I get that the Bucks expect the picks in the 28-30 range, but that still seems like quite a haul and I’m not sure what Holiday really brings you that the Bucks were lacking. 

[Calibandar]

Well the Bucks got a couple of things there. They get Jrue Holiday who is a big upgrade over Bledsoe, who failed miserably in consecutive post seasons.

Holiday is a few inches taller than Bledsoe and known as one of the league's best defenders, plus a capable playmaker and scorer. Many teams wanted him, so this is a big get for Milwaukee. Assuming Giannis stays, good chance that Holiday re-signs there too. 

They also got Bogdanovic, a great shooting guard. A big upgrade over the shade of Wesley Matthews. So that is now a starting line-up of Holiday Bogdanovic Middleton Giannis and Brook Lopez. Fierce. All of this is done to convince Giannis to sign that supermax in the next few weeks. I kind of hope he does, I like this Bucks team with him on it. Plus they have now replaced the guys where they were clearly not getting enough from in the postseason, Matthews and Bledsoe.

The Pelicans get Bledsoe and Hill but mostly a lot of draft assets. Bledsoe could end up starting next to Lonzo Ball but I find that to be a weird fit. 

[Calibandar]

19 hours ago, Maithanet said:

So the Nets are gonna have Irving, Harden and Durant, plus a bunch of replacement level guys to make those salaries work?  I mean, those guys can play, but there's only one ball, and an Irving/Harden backcourt is pretty awkward.  Not to mention that defensively there are a lot of question marks.  Irving and Harden are both guys who CAN play defense, but often don't.  Durant might not ever be as explosive as he was, and if his athleticism is waning, it will show up most on the defensive end.

I guess it depends on what the Nets have to give up, but IMO the concern in Brooklyn is not lack of ball handling or elite shooting, which is what Harden brings.  I'm also kinda confused about why Harden wants the Nets, unless he's just dying to reuinite with Durant.  There are several teams I can think of that feel like a much better fit for Harden than Brooklyn.  LAC, Denver, Toronto, and Milwaukee just for starters. 

 

I dont have many issues seeing why either side badly wants this. Harden thinks and sees that hhis chances of winning in Houston are just done. He seems to be entirely correct in that assessment. He's a 31 year old superstar, one of the best players in the league, has not won a Ring yet. He's gotta do something at some point. And you can see that everything is falling apart in Houston, Westbrook wants out and they just traded a big piece in Robert Covington to Portland. Covington was seen as an essential piece when he came to Houston just last season and now he's gone, so IMO they are blowing it up. I think they know Harden has to go, otherwise there is no way you trade Covington.

Is the fit that awkward with Kyrie? Not sure. You can have questions about defensive ability yes, I do too. But that is two hyper talented scorers playing next to each other, plus Durant. I love it. I do really think Harden and Durant want to be re-united which is why no other teams you mentioned are being named as possible destinations. There is all this talk of them having been working out in LA recently and discussing it.

The other option popping up in rumors is Philadelphia. But I imagine they would need to throw in either Simmons or Embiid. Now that might make make for a more attractive package to Houston though, if they get Simmons in return and Harden desperately wants out, maybe they do that.

From the Nets, they could get a handful of young guys but no standout player like Simmons. But Harden in Philadelphia with Embiid, not sure that is what he wants. Problem for the Nets is, you dont want to give up too much because then you have no role players.

Re; Griffin. Agreed, not as useful anymore but with the league going smaller I think he could be played at the 5 in some teams. I still like a Westbrook to Detroit deal that pairs these two for some real fun

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Lopez opted out though, so there’s no guarantee he’s coming back. Frankly that seems like a bad trade for the Bucks, especially without a known commitment from Giannis. And damn do the Pelicans have a lot of picks going forward.

[Rhom]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Lopez opted out though, so there’s no guarantee he’s coming back. Frankly that seems like a bad trade for the Bucks, especially without a known commitment from Giannis. And damn do the Pelicans have a lot of picks going forward.

The Giannis signing is what makes it really iffy for me.  He signs, the picks are end of the first round types and doesn’t make a huge difference for either team.  He leaves... you just gave NO three high lottery picks to build around Zion.

[Argonath Diver]

Giannis said he was out if they didn't make moves. They went out and made two moves that tailor very well to his game - guys that can score, especially in the 4th- if teams cheat to double him or pack the paint. Presumably the Bucks will do all they can to retain Lopez, and fill the depleted bench with some ring chasers or journeymen. 

If they'd not done this, and instead shopped Giannis, they would be punting for years, and everyone on the internet would be shitting on them. Instead, they've made aggressive moves to build a beast of a starting 5. I expect both Lopez and Antetekounmpo to buy into this vision. On paper it looks like a very strong playoff team in the East.

[Proudfeet]

Um, unless I'm missing something, Brook and Robin are not the same person. 

Anyway, about Harden, his next contract is $50m. That's about half your cap space. I guess its doable if you already have your team and just need to go into luxury tax, but if you're still in need of a player or two, you're basically signing your championship hopes away. Has any team/player turned out better after just being eligible for the supermax? Seems that it leads to more divorces than teams keeping players. How many teams have offered / players signed?

[Maithanet]

This article mostly echoes my thoughts from earlier about why the Nets are a bad fit for Harden.  The short version is:

 - Three ball dominant offensive stars will run into a lot of diminishing returns.  Just like how Durant/Curry often didn't seem to be operating at/near 100% efficiency and instead relied on sheer talent to overwhelm opponents.  This team will obviously still be great on offense, but Durant+Irving is already really good offensively - will Harden really make them all that much better?  I have doubts. 

 - The Nets will have huge depth problems, since beyond that big 3, they only have Jordan and a bunch of chumps.

 - Jordan is a very bad fit with Harden, since he offers no spacing and has to defend the post.  But they'll have to play them together, because they don't have any depth.

 - Every member of the team is mediocre or worse on defense.  The only exception is Durant, and coming off a major injury, it's hard to see him being the defensive lynchpin. 

3 hours ago, Calibandar said:

I dont have many issues seeing why either side badly wants this. Harden thinks and sees that hhis chances of winning in Houston are just done. He seems to be entirely correct in that assessment. He's a 31 year old superstar, one of the best players in the league, has not won a Ring yet. He's gotta do something at some point. And you can see that everything is falling apart in Houston, Westbrook wants out and they just traded a big piece in Robert Covington to Portland. Covington was seen as an essential piece when he came to Houston just last season and now he's gone, so IMO they are blowing it up. I think they know Harden has to go, otherwise there is no way you trade Covington.

Is the fit that awkward with Kyrie? Not sure. You can have questions about defensive ability yes, I do too. But that is two hyper talented scorers playing next to each other, plus Durant. I love it. I do really think Harden and Durant want to be re-united which is why no other teams you mentioned are being named as possible destinations. There is all this talk of them having been working out in LA recently and discussing it.

The other option popping up in rumors is Philadelphia. But I imagine they would need to throw in either Simmons or Embiid. Now that might make make for a more attractive package to Houston though, if they get Simmons in return and Harden desperately wants out, maybe they do that.

From the Nets, they could get a handful of young guys but no standout player like Simmons. But Harden in Philadelphia with Embiid, not sure that is what he wants. Problem for the Nets is, you dont want to give up too much because then you have no role players.

I get why Harden wants out of Houston, that's not the question.  But of the 29 other teams in the league, the team where Harden's skillset would be MOST redundant is probably Brooklyn (Dallas and GSW are about equally bad).  If Harden wants to play for a contender, why doesn't he look at teams that have good defense but need additional offensive playmaking?  Milwaukee and Toronto would be real contenders with Harden.  I don't know if LAC could swing it, but Leonard/Harden/George is a much better fit than Durant/Irving.  Those guys needed additional playmakers in their run, and have plenty of defensive talent to fill in for Harden.  That team would, IMO be an overwhelming favorite if they could make it happen (it might be impossible to make that trade work). 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I think I'm finally sold on us taking Edwards first overall. Wiseman might be the best prospect, but the fit isn't great, and Golden State is going to get a steal that reopens their window for years to come. He is perfect for them and that contract will help give their core three's deals. 

[Argonath Diver]

I agree, Tywin. I do hope that all the chit-chat about his work ethic and/or attitude dissolve once he's a pro, but it's still about his only red flag. I think Ball is going to be a disappointment to whoever takes him. I do like Wiseman plenty, though. I think the Warriors get him and either trade him immediately, or showcase him when they can and try to make a big move mid-season. Then I simply hope Charlotte picks Ball.

Absolutely, hilariously, zero clue where the Bulls' ship is pointed. The Bulls forum I frequent has linked about two dozen rumors from random tweets all the way up to national guys, all of which are wildly disparate. If Jordan sniffs him out and picks a surprise at #3, and Ball drops (snicker), I won't be happy, but he said today he didn't even work out for the Bulls, so I'd expect a pick swap or they simply pass him by. I have bounced between about ten different kids now I either thought it likely they draft, or I had a hunch they'd be a star. No inkling, or frankly much of an opinion either way.

All these trade rumors flying around tonight have been insane! I just hate the piss out of Harden, Durant and Irving all, so I'd delight if they were together, alternately stomping teams by 30 or squabbling and throwing to garbage opponents.

[Argonath Diver]

I hate double posting, but this is specific to Edwards and not my usual ramble:

Not exactly the best interview for a #1 draft pick

Quote

He retells the story about the first time he dunked and how it signaled to him that he was talented and could accomplish something he might not have been able to in football, which was his first love. So that's the direction he went, simple as that, hanging up his cleats. "That's all I needed to see," he says.

So when after that did he get into basketball?

"I'm still not really into it," he says. "I love basketball, yeah. It's what I do."

He's not entirely convincing. He says if he were drafted by the NFL tomorrow, he'd let basketball go. "Because you can do anything on the field," he explains. "You can spike the ball. You can dance. You can do all type of disrespectful stuff." In the NBA, he says, "you can't do any of that. You'll get fined."

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, Argonath Diver said:

Absolutely, hilariously, zero clue where the Bulls' ship is pointed. The Bulls forum I frequent has linked about two dozen rumors from random tweets all the way up to national guys, all of which are wildly disparate. If Jordan sniffs him out and picks a surprise at #3, and Ball drops (snicker), I won't be happy, but he said today he didn't even work out for the Bulls, so I'd expect a pick swap or they simply pass him by. I have bounced between about ten different kids now I either thought it likely they draft, or I had a hunch they'd be a star. No inkling, or frankly much of an opinion either way.

I think the Bulls are in a good spot at 4. The top three players in the draft haven't really separated from one another, and one could fall and be either an unexpected surprise or increase the value of the pick in a trade. If not, Avidja is really intriguing (I'd be cool if the Wolves traded back to get him there for a few picks) and Toppin seems to be flying up boards. I've seen him going as high as two. 

Regarding that link about Edwards, that just sounds like a kid being a little too honest. I'm not concerned about that. 

[Calibandar]

9 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think I'm finally sold on us taking Edwards first overall. Wiseman might be the best prospect, but the fit isn't great, and Golden State is going to get a steal that reopens their window for years to come. He is perfect for them and that contract will help give their core three's deals. 

I would take him as well if I was the T-Wolves. Looks like a fantastic prospect, really like what I see from him. He'd my number one here, and thats without even looking at him obviously being a great fit for Minnesota. And if they do, things suddenly look up in Minnesota, Towns is still an excellent player, Edwards coming in...I do have my questions about Russell though. Also wonder if Minnesota will be able to garner a second high pick.

17 hours ago, Maithanet said:

 

I get why Harden wants out of Houston, that's not the question.  But of the 29 other teams in the league, the team where Harden's skillset would be MOST redundant is probably Brooklyn (Dallas and GSW are about equally bad).  If Harden wants to play for a contender, why doesn't he look at teams that have good defense but need additional offensive playmaking?  Milwaukee and Toronto would be real contenders with Harden.  I don't know if LAC could swing it, but Leonard/Harden/George is a much better fit than Durant/Irving.  Those guys needed additional playmakers in their run, and have plenty of defensive talent to fill in for Harden.  That team would, IMO be an overwhelming favorite if they could make it happen (it might be impossible to make that trade work). 

Well I agree the Clippers might be a better fit. Certainly after the Paul George debacle you'd think they'd be super keen to get in on Harden. But rumors about him to the Nets are piling up constantly, apparently Harden only wants to leave for the Nets and be re-united with KD.

On top of that we can keep an eye on the Ibaka to the Nets storyline, where there is apparently strong interest from both sides. But he would need to take a huge paycut apparently. But you can see what might be cooking here, if Harden comes, Ibaka might be interested too because these OKC guys are wanting to reunite....or maybe they dont get Harden but they do get Ibaka. Again how that would work financially I am not quite sure.

9 hours ago, Argonath Diver said:

Absolutely, hilariously, zero clue where the Bulls' ship is pointed. The Bulls forum I frequent has linked about two dozen rumors from random tweets all the way up to national guys, all of which are wildly disparate. If Jordan sniffs him out and picks a surprise at #3, and Ball drops (snicker), I won't be happy, but he said today he didn't even work out for the Bulls, so I'd expect a pick swap or they simply pass him by. 

I was surprised to hear he didnt work out for the Bulls, I thought they were gonna take a PG and he's the big option there. Looks like he wont go to Chicago then. Also rumors about LaVine being traded.

[Maithanet]

2 hours ago, Calibandar said:

Well I agree the Clippers might be a better fit. Certainly after the Paul George debacle you'd think they'd be super keen to get in on Harden. But rumors about him to the Nets are piling up constantly, apparently Harden only wants to leave for the Nets and be re-united with KD.

On top of that we can keep an eye on the Ibaka to the Nets storyline, where there is apparently strong interest from both sides. But he would need to take a huge paycut apparently. But you can see what might be cooking here, if Harden comes, Ibaka might be interested too because these OKC guys are wanting to reunite....or maybe they dont get Harden but they do get Ibaka. Again how that would work financially I am not quite sure.

I'm not a cap expert or anything, but from what I understand it will be really really hard to bring Ibaka in unless he is willing to take a HUGE (60-70%) paycut.  I dunno, maybe Ibaka will do that, but it seems unlikely.  The guy already has a ring, so I doubt he's that desperate to get another one.  Maybe if they could move Jordan first, but I get the impression that Durant and Irving love having Jordan around, so I doubt that would fly. 

Even if they could make it work, the team would have no bench at all, the salary would be the 5 starters plus a bunch of minimum salary guys.  And a starting 5 of Irving, Harden, Durant, Ibaka, Jordan is still IMO fairly awkward.  Lots of injury concerns, tons of defensive holes, and some glaring matchup problems with key teams they need to beat like Boston and LAL. 

I remain convinced that Harden to the Nets is a bad idea.  I think the Nets have a better chance at winning a championship without him.  And there are several places that offer Harden a better shot at a ring. 

[Slurktan]

Milwaukee is doing the best copy of a "Cleveland Cavaliers going into the last year of LeBrons contract" strategy I've seen in a while.  They are fucked when he goes to Toronto next year.

[Maithanet]

Giannis definitely has more talent around him this year than Lebron did any year of his first Cleveland run.  It might not be enough, but the roster they've built is a pretty good one.