Next in line after tommen

[Mrstrategy]

Who would be next in line for the iron throne if tommen dies/gets killed and his tyrrel wife is not pregnant or had baby already since I don't think the tyrrel or the other kingdoms would accept Myrcella as queen as the other claimant Stannis is considered a enemy of the Crown by the lannisters/Tyrrels ?does the 7 kingdoms break up into individual kingdoms ?

[argonak]

Myrcella is considered the heir right now.   After her, it would be Stannis.  Real world history there's plenty of examples of a rebellious relative inheriting the throne anyway.  There would have to be a meeting of High Lords to determine whether to call Stannis back to be King, or try and find some other relative.  But most likely there would be peace talks and Stannis would be put in as King.  But he'd be a very weak king from a real power perspective at that point.  Feudalism relies on the loyalty of your vassals, and Stannis would have to earn that loyalty back.

Legally the Lannisters have no claim to inherit the crown, as its held by the Baratheon line.

[Angel Eyes]

1 hour ago, Mrstrategy said:

Who would be next in line for the iron throne if tommen dies/gets killed and his tyrrel wife is not pregnant or had baby already since I don't think the tyrrel or the other kingdoms would accept Myrcella as queen as the other claimant Stannis is considered a enemy of the Crown by the lannisters/Tyrrels ?does the 7 kingdoms break up into individual kingdoms ?

Likely Stannis, since there's a rule that women can't rule in their own right (hence why Viserys I naming Rhaenyra as his heir was controversial and why Viserys II took the throne instead of his brother's daughters). On the other hand it could depend on the culture's interpretation who gets to rule. Dorne follows a pure primogeniture line of succession, hence why Tyene Sand suggests crowning Myrcella and letting the Lannisters come to Dorne and Arianne attempts a coup to crown Myrcella.

[Eltharion21]

37 minutes ago, argonak said:

Myrcella is considered the heir right now.   After her, it would be Stannis.  Real world history there's plenty of examples of a rebellious relative inheriting the throne anyway.  There would have to be a meeting of High Lords to determine whether to call Stannis back to be King, or try and find some other relative.  But most likely there would be peace talks and Stannis would be put in as King.  But he'd be a very weak king from a real power perspective at that point.  Feudalism relies on the loyalty of your vassals, and Stannis would have to earn that loyalty back.

Legally the Lannisters have no claim to inherit the crown, as its held by the Baratheon line.

 Knowledge is power, guard it well.

Also don't let it get dusty for inquistion sake.

[Angel Eyes]

18 minutes ago, Eltharion21 said:

 Knowledge is power, guard it well.

Also don't let it get dusty for inquistion sake.

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!

[Mourning Star]

What I think is more interesting is what if Stannis and Shireen predecease Tommen... or he disinherits them... then Tommen's heir is... Doran Martell?

[Angel Eyes]

39 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

What I think is more interesting is what if Stannis and Shireen predecease Tommen... or he disinherits them... then Tommen's heir is... Doran Martell?

How so?

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Mrstrategy said:

Who would be next in line for the iron throne if tommen dies/gets killed and his tyrrel wife is not pregnant or had baby already since I don't think the tyrrel or the other kingdoms would accept Myrcella as queen as the other claimant Stannis is considered a enemy of the Crown by the lannisters/Tyrrels ?does the 7 kingdoms break up into individual kingdoms ?

Myrcella is Tommen's heir.

3 hours ago, argonak said:

Myrcella is considered the heir right now.   After her, it would be Stannis.  Real world history there's plenty of examples of a rebellious relative inheriting the throne anyway.  There would have to be a meeting of High Lords to determine whether to call Stannis back to be King, or try and find some other relative.  But most likely there would be peace talks and Stannis would be put in as King.  But he'd be a very weak king from a real power perspective at that point.  Feudalism relies on the loyalty of your vassals, and Stannis would have to earn that loyalty back.

Legally the Lannisters have no claim to inherit the crown, as its held by the Baratheon line.

Stannis and Shireen are no longer in the line of succession due to their treason. Doesn't mean people at court might not consider offering the throne to Stannis or Shireen if both Tommen and Myrcella were dead, of course, but as things stand the people in power do not consider them heirs.

2 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Likely Stannis, since there's a rule that women can't rule in their own right (hence why Viserys I naming Rhaenyra as his heir was controversial and why Viserys II took the throne instead of his brother's daughters). On the other hand it could depend on the culture's interpretation who gets to rule. Dorne follows a pure primogeniture line of succession, hence why Tyene Sand suggests crowning Myrcella and letting the Lannisters come to Dorne and Arianne attempts a coup to crown Myrcella.

Stannis is out. Rhaenyra is a relatively weird case in the sense that she is an elder daughter with younger brothers and other male kin. Myrcella is the last viable heir of Robert Baratheon and his sons. Joff and Tommen have no children, Renly didn't live long enough to breed, and Stannis and Shireen are attainted traitors. If Tommen dies Myrcella would be crowned by the powers in KL unless Tommen's death coincides with their downfall (like, say, Aegon deposes them when his people kill Tommen). Neither the Lannisters nor the Tyrells would have any incentive to turn to Stannis. Neither would the Faith.

The idea is that a woman's claim is not nothing. They don't have a law that cuts out females and males through the female line from the succession altogether. It just sort of comes after the claims of male members of the royal family. Or rather closely related members. If Rhaegar had been a woman he would have likely been his father's heir until the birth of Viserys ... not Steffon or Robert Baratheon.

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

What I think is more interesting is what if Stannis and Shireen predecease Tommen... or he disinherits them... then Tommen's heir is... Doran Martell?

Some Targaryen cousin, most likely, since Robert's claim derives from Aegon V, i.e. from House Targaryen. Claimants would thus come from the various (female) cadet branches of the house, meaning the Tarths, Penroses, Plumms, and, yes, the Martells. The latter would have a pretty good chance considering they are the only great house with confirmed Targaryen blood. But there might be others via the six Targaryen-Hightower daughters of Rhaena and Garmund.

Another way could be to bring in a bastard of Robert's, most likely Edric Storm.

There is also a chance that people get confused and think because they are Baratheon cousins/descendants who are not descended from Steffon and Ormund/Rhaelle that they still have a claim. But so far we have no idea who Robert's closest cousin on the Baratheon side is. Are any descendants of Lord Lyonel and his father still around? We have no idea, really. If they are, they cannot be named Baratheons or else we should have heard about them by now.

If Tommen dies, and Myrcella is crowned the people in charge will have to seriously consider who would be her heir and successor if she, too, would meet an untimely end. Whether they could agree on a claimant or even find a suitable candidate is completely unclear, though. No Lannister/Tyrell would want a Martell on the throne, the Tarths seem to be down to an ugly and unnatural woman, and the Penroses are pretty obscure. The Plumms could have a shot, perhaps, I guess.

[Mourning Star]

8 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

How so?

Through Daenerys Targaryen, daughter of Aegon the Unworthy.

 

[Aebram]

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Another way could be to bring in a bastard of Robert's, most likely Edric Storm.

Yes, I was just going to suggest this. Unlike most of Robert's other bastard children, Edric's paternity is well established. And he was raised in a castle and educated by a Maester, so his upbringing makes him better suited to become king then most of the others.

It's still possible that Cersei's incest will be discovered and made public. I can imagine a chapter where Edric, Gendry, and Mya Stone are all brought before the court, along with Tommen and Myrcella ... And Renly. And a Maester with a copy of that book about the history and lineage of the great houses. Guilty!

[Mourning Star]

24 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Myrcella is Tommen's heir.

Only if you ignore the precedent that no woman can rule from the Iron Throne.

As it stands the line of succession can only pass through a woman if no male line exists... but there is no precedent for a Queen ruling in her own right, and precedent for opposing the idea.

Quote

Some Targaryen cousin, most likely, since Robert's claim derives from Aegon V, i.e. from House Targaryen. Claimants would thus come from the various (female) cadet branches of the house, meaning the Tarths, Penroses, Plumms, and, yes, the Martells. The latter would have a pretty good chance considering they are the only great house with confirmed Targaryen blood. But there might be others via the six Targaryen-Hightower daughters of Rhaena and Garmund.

While these are possible, it isn't clear to us who, if anyone, is directly descended from the royal line... House Penrose and house Plumm both married an Elaena Targaryen, and both were further back than Daenerys Martell. Likewise, Garmund Hightower marrying into house Targaryen was much further up the tree.

Tarth is interesting, but we still don't know what the connection to house Targaryen actually is...

Not knowing what happened to Egg's sisters leaves a big question mark to be honest.

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Only if you ignore the precedent that no woman can rule from the Iron Throne.

There is no such precedent. There are precedents of women and descendants through the female line being passed over, but the Targaryens are not the French kings. No law was made nor invented to cut out women permanently from the succession. There are just individual precedents ... and quite a few of them actually established women as potential heirs. Rhaena, Aerea, Rhaenys, Rhaenyra, Jaehaera, Baela/Rhaena all were heirs at various points, and Princess Aelora was even the Heir Apparent and Princess of Dragonstone after the death of her twin brother and husband Aelor had died.

6 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

As it stands the line of succession can only pass through a woman if no male line exists... but there is no precedent for a Queen ruling in her own right, and precedent for opposing the idea.

In Myrcella's and Shireen's cases there are no males around. There are no brothers, nephews or cousins who could challenge their respective claims.

6 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

While these are possible, it isn't clear to us who, if anyone, is directly descended from the royal line... House Penrose and house Plumm both married an Elaena Targaryen, and both were further back than Daenerys Martell. Likewise, Garmund Hightower marrying into house Targaryen was much further up the tree.

Basically, this is a complete mess. In Westeros there would be no way to figure out whose claim is stronger because these people do not have proper succession laws. A Queen Myrcella or a Queen Shireen would have to name/acknowledge a presumptive heir, but even that would not guarantee that this person could succeed them after their deaths if other, more powerful claimants would come forth. If no heir is named, then chances would be pretty good that some powerful dude - Mace Tyrell, say - would try to usurp the Iron Throne because none of the potential claimants with royal blood out there have close ties to court or the great houses.

But I very much doubt that the people in charge could actually agree on who should the presumptive heir be. Prior to the return of Prince Viserys, the succession of Aegon III was unclear, too, because the regents and Hand couldn't agree whether the elder or younger half-sister of the king should be his heir. As Gyldayn tells the story, the chances for another Dance were pretty high if Aegon III had died before Viserys' return. Some people would have proclaimed Baela queen, others Rhaena, and others still would have insisted Jaehaera was the rightful queen as only surviving child of Aegon II (assuming Aegon III would have died while Jaehaera was still alive, of course).

The Plumms and Penroses could, for instance, claim that their claim is stronger because they are descendants of Aegon III, making them the more senior female Targaryen cadet branch whereas the Martells are only descended from Viserys II's younger branch. The Martells could counter that this is bogus since they are descended from a more recent king, etc.

6 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Tarth is interesting, but we still don't know what the connection to house Targaryen actually is.

Chances are that it is the most recent one, possibly through one of Egg's sisters (in my opinion by ways of Daella marrying Dunk whose daughter then ends up becoming Selwyn Tarth's mother). But then - Vaella the Simple or Prince Maegor could also have had offspring, Princess Daenora could have remarried after Aerion's death, and Duncan and Jenny could have been outlived by some of their children (if they had any).

[Lord Varys]

31 minutes ago, Aebram said:

Yes, I was just going to suggest this. Unlike most of Robert's other bastard children, Edric's paternity is well established. And he was raised in a castle and educated by a Maester, so his upbringing makes him better suited to become king then most of the others.

Problem with Edric is that he is in exile right now, and if we assume Myrcella were to succeed Tommen as queen - and no Targaryen rival pretenders would show up and oust the Targaryen-Baratheons or fail at that task before Myrcella were to die - then chances are that people would not make him her heir since he was actually another potential rival claimant.

They would install another guy as presumptive heir, and Edric would remain in exile until after Myrcella's death ... when there would be a very short timeframe where he could be brought in to challenge whoever else wants the throne. If there were a prolonged succession war he could eventually start a campaign, but if they found some heir who then quickly succeeded Myrcella then he would be out of the picture.

After all, Edric is still clearly a bastard. He was acknowledged by Robert, never legitimized. And people really need a very good incentive to overlook that or sort of agree to view him as a legitimized bastard ... or make him a bastard king. That is nothing we can expect the boy to do from exile.

31 minutes ago, Aebram said:

It's still possible that Cersei's incest will be discovered and made public. I can imagine a chapter where Edric, Gendry, and Mya Stone are all brought before the court, along with Tommen and Myrcella ... And Renly. And a Maester with a copy of that book about the history and lineage of the great houses. Guilty!

Oh, if that happens it is most likely going to happen via Cersei's trial-by-combat. Nobody is going to need 'evidence' of that sort if the gods themselves where to condemn Cersei. After all, the parentage of her children is one of the many things the trial-by-combat is supposed to 'rule' on.

Vice versa, it would also mean that if Cersei were to win the trial and her champion being declared the victor that officially the parentage of her children could not be formally challenged in the future. If the Seven ruled on the matter there would be no authority left to challenge it. Meaning even if Jaime were starting to run around telling everybody that he was the father of Cersei's children it should be difficult for people to go against the High Septon/Faith in this matter if they declared that Robert was the father.

[GoldenGail3]

20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Vice versa, it would also mean that if Cersei were to win the trial and her champion being declared the victor that officially the parentage of her children could not be formally challenged in the future

I believe she's gonna lose her trial though. I have this gut feeling....

[Lord Varys]

Just now, GoldenGail3 said:

I believe she's gonna lose her trial though. I have this gut feeling....

Well, I expect Ser Robert to win ... but his identity and nature to be revealed during the trial (say, by his opponent knocking of his helmet and thus opposing him for all the world to see).

If that were to happen, I don't think the High Septon and the Faith will view this as a won trial-by-combat even if Ser Robert technically killed his opponent. Rather, one should expect him to denounce Cersei as the worst abomination alive, accusing her of using black magic and the support of demons and the lord of the seven hells to try to deceive the Seven themselves.

If something like that happens Cersei will have to run for her life ... and it will be the beginning of the quick end of King Tommen.

[El Guapo]

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

Only if you ignore the precedent that no woman can rule from the Iron Throne.

As it stands the line of succession can only pass through a woman if no male line exists... but there is no precedent for a Queen ruling in her own right, and precedent for opposing the idea.

 

Then why is it after finding out that Viserys is dead does Barristan not turn around to jon Stannis at Dragnstone instead of going half way around the world to find Dany?  Why does an educated man like Tyrion not say taht Dany has no claim because she is a woman?  The only thing he does say in this matter is that Aegon (if real) has the better claim.

[Lord Lannister]

I half think that if something happened to Tommen, Margaery would suddenly show up pregnant having consummated her marriage with the boy king before the end.  

[CamiloRP]

@FictionIsntReal and I argued about this not so long ago.

He claimed that Stannis would go before Myrcella.

My claim is closer to that of @Lord Varys I think the law right now is held by the small council and the faith, neither of those groups would want Stannis as king, as the first one is made of Lannister suporters and the second one has a lot of reasons to hate Stannis. Also, I think that Stannis, by being a traitor and a rebel has negated himself as an heir (which, side note, is why I think Mel didn't kill Balon, Robb and Joffrey with the leeches, as if she had that power she could have killed Joff and Tommen before Stannis rebels, giving him a much stronger claim). 

But even if Stannis isn't negated as an heir the Lannisters hold the realm by force more than by law (as Jaime tells Cersei when he suggests they should come clean). So the Heir of their regime would be who they see fit and likely won't be a man whom they can charge with treason, kinslaying, attempted kingslaying and probably much more. And Tyrion thinks Cersei is likely to accept Dornish law, so Myrcella still looks like the prime candidate, IMHO.

In peace times they could call a great council, which we don't know how they work exactly, but if it's only the high lords "voting' between likely candidates we can assume Myrcella would have the vote of The Westerlands, The Crownlands and The Stormlands for sure with the really likely support of The Riverlands and The North (if the Boltons still rule there, if not, Stannis has likely already been named king by them) and the Likely support of Dorne (if they deem it fair for their plot) and The Reach (if Cersei hasn't pissed them off completely), with The Vale as a wild card and The Iron Islands vote being negated bc they are rebels.

So, in my opinion, all roads lead to Queen Myrcella.

[Angel Eyes]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, I expect Ser Robert to win ... but his identity and nature to be revealed during the trial (say, by his opponent knocking of his helmet and thus opposing him for all the world to see).

If that were to happen, I don't think the High Septon and the Faith will view this as a won trial-by-combat even if Ser Robert technically killed his opponent. Rather, one should expect him to denounce Cersei as the worst abomination alive, accusing her of using black magic and the support of demons and the lord of the seven hells to try to deceive the Seven themselves.

If something like that happens Cersei will have to run for her life ... and it will be the beginning of the quick end of King Tommen.

I wonder whose head is under that helmet... is it Gregor's head? Robb Stark's head?

[Hodor the Articulate]

Myrcella.

The precedent set by the great council isn't binding. Anyway, Stannis was implicitly rejected when hardly anybody supported his claim.