Dothraki vs Westeros

[Aldarion]

Another one of my military commentaries / analyses:

https://militaryfantasy.home.blog/2020/10/01/clash-of-empires-dothraki-vs-westeros/

Again, it is long, so to sum up:

• Dothraki are modeled among other things, on Mongols
• But even Mongols would not be an existential danger to Westeros: case in point, invasion of Hungary
  • First invasion
    • it was Mongols who had more and better heavy cavalry, not Hungarians
    • even so, at Battle of Mohi, what few heavy troops Hungarians did have nearly broke the Mongols
    • most cities which Mongols sacked had only wooden pallisade for protection - no stone fortification fell to the Mongols, but there were only 10 of those in the entire kingdom north of Drava
    • series of sieges and unusually wet winter (turning ground to mud) caused Mongols to become bogged down - they were in retreat even before news of khan's death reached them
  • Second invasion
    • in the leadup to second invasion, Hungary introduced Western-model heavy cavalry and large numbers of crossbowmen
    • 100 new stone fortresses were constructed, of which 66 proper castles on elevated sites
    • Mongols invaded with three armies, but these were delayed by new castles and then defeated in detail as they split up to raid and forage
    • no fortified strongholds were captured by the Mongols
    • Talabuga's army was finally defeated by the royal army in the hills of Western Transylvania, while Nogai's army was destroyed by local Transylvanian forces
    • Poles used similar strategy to defeat Mongols
  • in 1345., Hungarian army under Count Andrew Lackfi launched invasion into Mongol territory, defeated Golden Horde and captured/conquered/liberated today’s Moldavia
• Mongols always won battle in close quarters, but in second invasion it was Hungarians who had better heavy cavalry
• Mongol conquest of China was a case of Chinese conquering themselves, and their success elsewhere was dependant on Chinese engineers - which in Europe were not available (though Chinese artillery was, and played major role in Mongol victories in the field)
• Mongol invasion of Japan was in fact a failure even before the storm hit
• Dothraki's combat record is far from stellar
  • against Qohor, they kept charging as if they were heavy cavalry instead of utilizing proper tactics
  • against Sarnori, performance is of questionable value
    • fact that some khals had died indicates that part of Dothraki host had actually collapsed in rout - Sarnori then plunging into gap and getting outflanked may have been lucky happenstance instead of a planned trap
    • Sarnori army was garbage by Westerosi standards - limited cavalry, light infantry and chariots. Soldiers themselves were untrained and undisciplined. Dothraki had 80 000 cavalry against Sarnori 20 000 cavalry and 100 000 infantry - thus Dothraki actually had massive advantage in combat power.
• Dothraki themselves have neither weapons, tactics, organization or logistics that made Mongols so effective, while Westerosi armies are perfectly structured to defeat Mongols. Thus invasion of Mongols' brain-dead second cousins cannot be considered a threat.
• Dothraki are almost exclusively lightly armoured horse archers. Thus they will find it impossible to defeat any proper infantry force, especially since they have no weapons effective against even light armour. They will also be unable to defeat Westerosi heavy cavalry, as latter utilizes barding. The only chance at victory they have is raiding, but Westerosi terrain and network of castles means that Dothraki war bands will be run down and destroyed piecemeal. Even if not, they will not be able to support themselves from Westerosi countryside with the possible exception of the Reach (and maybe Crownlands).
• Jorah Mormont's arguments boil down to “if Robert Baratheon is a retard who forgets what castles and city walls are for, and if he ignores advice of his closest advisors, and thus acts contrary to normal feudal practice, we will be able to get them to fight in the open field which is our only chance for victory. If that happens, then yeah, we have a very minuscule chance of victory, while normally we have snowball’s chance in Hell”. Everything here is self-delusion: first, assumption that Robert will simply forget to utilize castles (which have more uses than just hiding in them) and second, assumption that Dothraki can win if only they can force an open-field battle (they cannot).

[SeanF]

I think the armed forces of Westeros would defeat the Dothraki on their own, as presently constituted.

Assuming that Daenerys takes control of all or part of them, I wonder what kinds of military reforms she'd implement.  If the Dothraki wore silk shirts, and boiled leather breast and back-plates, like Mongol light cavalry, that would reduce casualties among them.  That said, they are, as you point out, light cavalry, good for raiding, scouting, cutting off foragers and small detachments and people bringing supplies, They would be good at pursuing a broken enemy, and turning defeat into a rout.

What they can't do is break heavy horse, or well-trained infantry, properly handled, and any attempt to do so would be disastrous.  Nor do they have any siegecraft. But, I don't think anyone  expects them to be fighting on their own.  It seems that the plan that Illyrio and Varys cooked up envisaged them fighting alongside the Golden Company, and disaffected lords.  If Daenerys brings them to Westeros, they'll be fighting alongside heavy infantry (Unsullied and Marsalen's freedmen, former Tiger soldiers of Volantis), thousands of sellswords, a mix of heavy horse, spearmen, and archers, and the armies of the Red Clergy,  And of course, they'll be backed up by dragonfire.

 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

I agree to almost everything here, but one thing of note, the Dothraki are not the Mongols. First the Mongols actually build stuff and had a functional government, but more importantly, the Mongols had a very advanced army, the likes of which the Dohtraki could hardly dream of. They had incredibly strong heavy horse and incredible discipline as well as revolutionary tactics. The Dothraki are sorely lacking in all 3.

[CamiloRP]

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Jorah Mormont's arguments boil down to “if Robert Baratheon is a retard who forgets what castles and city walls are for, and if he ignores advice of his closest advisors, and thus acts contrary to normal feudal practice, we will be able to get them to fight in the open field which is our only chance for victory. If that happens, then yeah, we have a very minuscule chance of victory, while normally we have snowball’s chance in Hell”. Everything here is self-delusion: first, assumption that Robert will simply forget to utilize castles (which have more uses than just hiding in them) and second, assumption that Dothraki can win if only they can force an open-field battle (they cannot).

I think Robert would face them in the field. More than anything he wants people to love him, and let them be raped killed or enslaved by Dothraki would cause some resentment towards him. And I don't think Viserys, Dany, or even Drogo would let the Dothraki attack a castle. That being said, Westeros's armies would smsh the Dothraki to bits, not only because of all the things you pointed out 9mainly the lack of discipline and armor) but because of the numbers. By AGOT Robert's closest allies where Arryn, Stark, Lannister and maybe even Tully. Both Lannister, Arryn and Baratheon have at least 50k soldiers each, and if needs be they could raise more and hire sellswords, with 20k northerners that's 170k against 40k. And that's not even counting the likely Tully aid, the Crown's forces (for which I believe we have no number) and other kingdom's aid, which is very likely under Robert, specially against foreign enemies such as the Dothraki, and even more if the Dothraki attack their lands. Best case scenario they're fighting 4 to 1, worst case scenario would be something like 8 to 1.

 

But Viserys didn't count just on the Dothraki. He expected some other houses to join him.

Quote

Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. The Dornishmen burn to avenge Elia and her children. And the smallfolk will be with us. They cry out for their king.

With the aid of Dorne, The Reach, and The Iron Islands, the thing would be quite different. He'd have the biggest fleet and a similar number of troops (Tyrell 100k, Dothraki 40k and I'm assuming Dorne has around 30k).

[Aldarion]

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

Assuming that Daenerys takes control of all or part of them, I wonder what kinds of military reforms she'd implement.  If the Dothraki wore silk shirts, and boiled leather breast and back-plates, like Mongol light cavalry, that would reduce casualties among them.  That said, they are, as you point out, light cavalry, good for raiding, scouting, cutting off foragers and small detachments and people bringing supplies, They would be good at pursuing a broken enemy, and turning defeat into a rout.

 

Yeah, but that would be a whole slew of its own problems... basically, you would have Dothraki be dumbed down so that a Westerosi girl could teach them how to be Mongols.

But yes, they do have their uses. That being said...

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

What they can't do is break heavy horse, or well-trained infantry, properly handled, and any attempt to do so would be disastrous.  Nor do they have any siegecraft. But, I don't think anyone  expects them to be fighting on their own.  It seems that the plan that Illyrio and Varys cooked up envisaged them fighting alongside the Golden Company, and disaffected lords.  If Daenerys brings them to Westeros, they'll be fighting alongside heavy infantry (Unsullied and Marsalen's freedmen, former Tiger soldiers of Volantis), thousands of sellswords, a mix of heavy horse, spearmen, and archers, and the armies of the Red Clergy,  And of course, they'll be backed up by dragonfire.

 

Unsullied and freedmen have their own slew of problems, but to put it short, neither can actually face Westerosi infantry and expect to live for long, at least against regular infantry (pikemen and dismounted men-at-arms).

39 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

I think Robert would face them in the field. More than anything he wants people to love him, and let them be raped killed or enslaved by Dothraki would cause some resentment towards him. And I don't think Viserys, Dany, or even Drogo would let the Dothraki attack a castle. That being said, Westeros's armies would smsh the Dothraki to bits, not only because of all the things you pointed out 9mainly the lack of discipline and armor) but because of the numbers. By AGOT Robert's closest allies where Arryn, Stark, Lannister and maybe even Tully. Both Lannister, Arryn and Baratheon have at least 50k soldiers each, and if needs be they could raise more and hire sellswords, with 20k northerners that's 170k against 40k. And that's not even counting the likely Tully aid, the Crown's forces (for which I believe we have no number) and other kingdom's aid, which is very likely under Robert, specially against foreign enemies such as the Dothraki, and even more if the Dothraki attack their lands. Best case scenario they're fighting 4 to 1, worst case scenario would be something like 8 to 1.

 

That part was not about Viserys' plan per se (which, as you point out, was not that idiotic), but specifically about Jorah Mormont's argument to Daenerys. I do agree that Robert would likely face Dothraki in the field... but I do not agree with Jorah's statement that doing so would be a stupid decision on his part, for all the reasons you have noted.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

     I believe King Robert feared the possibility of a rebel Westrosi-Dothraki alliance. The only thing the Dothraki had going for them was the supposed 100,000 man count. The logistics involved in moving that many men, horse, and supplies, across the sea seems unrealistic for the Dothraki to accomplish. Wherever the beachhead would be established may most likely soon be encircled.
     The Dothraki appear great and mighty, and foolishly fearless, against unarmed peasants. We’ve heard of their account against an entrenched military force. Epic fail, if accurate. Cavalry charge into spears and pike? Non-steel arrowheads against shields and “iron skirts”? The only use the Dothraki have would be as scouts and foragers. 
     The more interesting thing about the Dothraki are their supposed past military accomplishments. How did they siege city’s in the past? Just encircled land locked city’s and starved them out? Or did they have allies with military siege craft and political, industrial saboteurs?                                           

     The current politics around the Dothraki and their gifts are very important to consider. Would the gift giving cities want the roaming Dothraki buffer to leave? If the Dothraki left, which people benefit and which cities are weakened? Would territory’s farming expand, and trade increase or decline? 

[argonak]

1 hour ago, Eliscat said:

     I believe King Robert feared the possibility of a rebel Westrosi-Dothraki alliance. The only thing the Dothraki had going for them was the supposed 100,000 man count. The logistics involved in moving that many men, horse, and supplies, across the sea seems unrealistic for the Dothraki to accomplish. Wherever the beachhead would be established may most likely soon be encircled.
     The Dothraki appear great and mighty, and foolishly fearless, against unarmed peasants. We’ve heard of their account against an entrenched military force. Epic fail, if accurate. Cavalry charge into spears and pike? Non-steel arrowheads against shields and “iron skirts”? The only use the Dothraki have would be as scouts and foragers. 
     The more interesting thing about the Dothraki are their supposed past military accomplishments. How did they siege city’s in the past? Just encircled land locked city’s and starved them out? Or did they have allies with military siege craft and political, industrial saboteurs?                                           

     The current politics around the Dothraki and their gifts are very important to consider. Would the gift giving cities want the roaming Dothraki buffer to leave? If the Dothraki left, which people benefit and which cities are weakened? Would territory’s farming expand, and trade increase or decline? 

As I recall, (and its been ages since I read the chapters where they're initially described), I think the Dothraki are described as a sort of "siege in being" vs actual sieges.  They show up, burn everything around the city, and start grazing their herds.  If your essos citystate army comes out to fight them, the Dothraki evaluate, and if they think they have the advantage, the attack, win, and pillage the city.  if they think they are at a disadvantage, their decline battle and move their herds away until your army gets bored and goes back into the city.  Then they can just come back and continue pillaging your countryside, or move on somewhere with easier targets.  They're completely dependent on a mobility advantage.  They wouldn't necessarily have that advantage in Westeros.

[Lord Browndodd]

Who are these elite Westerosi infantry of which you speak?  The infantry forces we see in the book are ill-equipped peasant levies.  The only professionals out there are the gold cloaks, who do not impress as disciplined infantry from what we see of them.  Both would be little more than something a Dothraki horde would play with, like a cat would play with a mouse.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

12 minutes ago, Lord Browndodd said:

Who are these elite Westerosi infantry of which you speak?  The infantry forces we see in the book are ill-equipped peasant levies.  The only professionals out there are the gold cloaks, who do not impress as disciplined infantry from what we see of them.  Both would be little more than something a Dothraki horde would play with, like a cat would play with a mouse.

...Or a rat. Knights, hedge knights, squires, house guards, and sell swords. Put some iron on and in the hands of mountain men and ya got some savage killers. Soldiers not so much. But any peasant equipped properly would be equal to a Dothraki I’d think. What’s a Dothraki but a peasant with a horse?

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

Anyone thinking “blankets“ as “gifts*” to an invading Dothraki hoard may be in the future?

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

42 minutes ago, argonak said:

As I recall, (and its been ages since I read the chapters where they're initially described), I think the Dothraki are described as a sort of "siege in being" vs actual sieges.  They show up, burn everything around the city, and start grazing their herds.  If your essos citystate army comes out to fight them, the Dothraki evaluate, and if they think they have the advantage, the attack, win, and pillage the city.  if they think they are at a disadvantage, their decline battle and move their herds away until your army gets bored and goes back into the city.  Then they can just come back and continue pillaging your countryside, or move on somewhere with easier targets.  They're completely dependent on a mobility advantage.  They wouldn't necessarily have that advantage in Westeros.

I believe you are correct. As I now recall it

[Aebram]

7 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Unsullied and freedmen have their own slew of problems, but to put it short, neither can actually face Westerosi infantry and expect to live for long, at least against regular infantry (pikemen and dismounted men-at-arms).

Good morrow Aldarion, I always enjoy your historical insights!  But I have to question this comment.  Unsullied are well trained, disciplined, and of couse fearless.  Why do you think Westerosi infantry could defeat them?

[Curled Finger]

I'm no great military strategist, but damn you guys have some of the most interesting conversations when you get going.   1 small thing I want to stress is we only have "best guesses" regarding the sizes and configurations of the Westerosi Army.  There are some mentions in the text regarding military populace around the continent.  I believe, again, I did not research before posting and would be glad to have honest to goodness text to back the numbers up.  Off the top of my head there were 40,000 ready to rock in the Vale, 20,000 Dornish swords and close to 100,000 Reachmen.  Jamie mentions 60,000 Lannisters but that's before the first round of war ended.   And what says the Reachmen in Kings Landing don't just slaughter every Lannister they see?  A good many of the Ironborn are at sea, I reckon maybe 10 to 15,000 able squids in the area.  There are exactly 2 northmen left and Stannis' ragtag band is looking thin these days--maybe 2,000 Northmen including everyone we know to be in play.  All the Riverlands has left is the Freys and maybe an armed BwB.  The Stormlands are being captured with zero hope of aid from Washington, I mean Kings Landing.    Aegon has 20,000 or there about.  It's all up to the Vale, Dorne and Reach now.  Great.  

My little bit of no doubt wrong numbers matches at least the 100,000 in the hoard with a little left over for any foot soldiers Dany could toss out 1st, maybe 2nd round.  Maybe longer if all the Westerosi are armored, but she's got the numbers almost 2:1 on the home team.   The Dothraki are fierce and Unsullied are precision personified.  Even without Mothers Men and everyone else Dany gets on her side, she's got a lot in her favor here.  I'm not sure how many will be left once Aegon gets moving.  Many variables.  

[Aldarion]

6 hours ago, Aebram said:

Good morrow Aldarion, I always enjoy your historical insights!  But I have to question this comment.  Unsullied are well trained, disciplined, and of couse fearless.  Why do you think Westerosi infantry could defeat them?

Because Westerosi infantry is also well-trained and disciplined, while being far better equipped (pikes vs spears) and tactically flexible (and this is true even if we are comparing melee infantry only, ignoring longbowmen and such). I wrote on Unsullied, and to sum it up: they lack the shock impact, staying power and flexibility of Westerosi infantry. Just giving them new equipment will not change it, as much of these flaws are inherent in their organization, training and biology.

And even ignoring all of the above, we already know how Unsullied fare against a well-led Westerosi force. Golden Company actually sacked Qohor. Now, GC itself is above-average even compared to Westerosi forces, but that would be a logical outcome of a confrontation between Unsullied and any Westerosi force (with possible exception of Ironborn, where Unsullied may be able to survive).

9 hours ago, Eliscat said:

I believe King Robert feared the possibility of a rebel Westrosi-Dothraki alliance. The only thing the Dothraki had going for them was the supposed 100,000 man count. The logistics involved in moving that many men, horse, and supplies, across the sea seems unrealistic for the Dothraki to accomplish. Wherever the beachhead would be established may most likely soon be encircled.
     The Dothraki appear great and mighty, and foolishly fearless, against unarmed peasants. We’ve heard of their account against an entrenched military force. Epic fail, if accurate. Cavalry charge into spears and pike? Non-steel arrowheads against shields and “iron skirts”? The only use the Dothraki have would be as scouts and foragers. 
     The more interesting thing about the Dothraki are their supposed past military accomplishments. How did they siege city’s in the past? Just encircled land locked city’s and starved them out? Or did they have allies with military siege craft and political, industrial saboteurs?                                           

That is what I believe as well. Dothraki by themselves were not a threat, but they would have given legitimacy to Viserys' claim, thus making it more likely that lords will join him. And that is where real threat lay, as it meant that not only Robert's military base would be diminished, but Viserys would also get access to competent troops which are already familiar with the terrain.

Dothraki in the past fought against Bronze Age level civilizations. Think of Mariotis or Akkadians vs Huns. And from what is written about Century of Blood etc., impression I get is that Dothraki didn't bother besieging cities, they just raided the countryside until cities started starving and were forced to come out and fight. And even without that, they would have likely come out to fight - think the siege of Troy in Illiad which was not so much a siege proper as it was Greeks camping in front of Troy and Trojans coming out to duke it out in front of the city on a regular basis.

8 hours ago, Lord Browndodd said:

Who are these elite Westerosi infantry of which you speak?  The infantry forces we see in the book are ill-equipped peasant levies.  The only professionals out there are the gold cloaks, who do not impress as disciplined infantry from what we see of them.  Both would be little more than something a Dothraki horde would play with, like a cat would play with a mouse.

Wrong. Some of infantry forces in the book are ill-equipped peasant levies, but majority are well-equipped, semi-professional soldiers: pikemen, longbowmen, crossbowmen, dismounted men-at-arms. And even beyond pure descriptions, military organization, mobilization and strategic employment of armies all point to the conclusion that vast majority of Westerosi troops are professionals. If they truly were peasant levies, Robb Stark's army would have fallen apart before he even reached the Neck - forget about any campaign in Riverlands or Westerlands. Nor would have Tyrells be able to maintain 60 000+ soldiers in the field with levee en masse army and feudal society.

3 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I'm no great military strategist, but damn you guys have some of the most interesting conversations when you get going.   1 small thing I want to stress is we only have "best guesses" regarding the sizes and configurations of the Westerosi Army.  There are some mentions in the text regarding military populace around the continent.  I believe, again, I did not research before posting and would be glad to have honest to goodness text to back the numbers up.  Off the top of my head there were 40,000 ready to rock in the Vale, 20,000 Dornish swords and close to 100,000 Reachmen.  Jamie mentions 60,000 Lannisters but that's before the first round of war ended.   And what says the Reachmen in Kings Landing don't just slaughter every Lannister they see?  A good many of the Ironborn are at sea, I reckon maybe 10 to 15,000 able squids in the area.  There are exactly 2 northmen left and Stannis' ragtag band is looking thin these days--maybe 2,000 Northmen including everyone we know to be in play.  All the Riverlands has left is the Freys and maybe an armed BwB.  The Stormlands are being captured with zero hope of aid from Washington, I mean Kings Landing.    Aegon has 20,000 or there about.  It's all up to the Vale, Dorne and Reach now.  Great.  

My little bit of no doubt wrong numbers matches at least the 100,000 in the hoard with a little left over for any foot soldiers Dany could toss out 1st, maybe 2nd round.  Maybe longer if all the Westerosi are armored, but she's got the numbers almost 2:1 on the home team.   The Dothraki are fierce and Unsullied are precision personified.  Even without Mothers Men and everyone else Dany gets on her side, she's got a lot in her favor here.  I'm not sure how many will be left once Aegon gets moving.  Many variables.  

I did an overview of army strengths here:

https://militaryfantasy.home.blog/2020/02/11/military-of-westeros-1-organization-and-manpower/

But that is maximum potential strength of each kingdom - which is actually more relevant here, as "Dothraki horde vs Westeros" was plan for initial Viserys' invasion. Daenerys will not have just Dothraki with her, while Westeros will be depleted.

As far as Daenerys' invasion scenario goes, we will have maybe 80 000 Westerosi vs 83 000 Daenerys' troops, if my estimations are correct. But out of Daenerys' army, only 5 000 will be on par with Westerosi. Dothraki are incompetence personified, and Unsullied are no great shakes either. As it stands now, her army would get crushed in Westeros in a fairly short order, which means that she needs to get competent troops from somewhere: possibly Volantis, assuming its troops are actually competent.

[SeanF]

43 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Because Westerosi infantry is also well-trained and disciplined, while being far better equipped (pikes vs spears) and tactically flexible (and this is true even if we are comparing melee infantry only, ignoring longbowmen and such). I wrote on Unsullied, and to sum it up: they lack the shock impact, staying power and flexibility of Westerosi infantry. Just giving them new equipment will not change it, as much of these flaws are inherent in their organization, training and biology.

And even ignoring all of the above, we already know how Unsullied fare against a well-led Westerosi force. Golden Company actually sacked Qohor. Now, GC itself is above-average even compared to Westerosi forces, but that would be a logical outcome of a confrontation between Unsullied and any Westerosi force (with possible exception of Ironborn, where Unsullied may be able to survive).

That is what I believe as well. Dothraki by themselves were not a threat, but they would have given legitimacy to Viserys' claim, thus making it more likely that lords will join him. And that is where real threat lay, as it meant that not only Robert's military base would be diminished, but Viserys would also get access to competent troops which are already familiar with the terrain.

Dothraki in the past fought against Bronze Age level civilizations. Think of Mariotis or Akkadians vs Huns. And from what is written about Century of Blood etc., impression I get is that Dothraki didn't bother besieging cities, they just raided the countryside until cities started starving and were forced to come out and fight. And even without that, they would have likely come out to fight - think the siege of Troy in Illiad which was not so much a siege proper as it was Greeks camping in front of Troy and Trojans coming out to duke it out in front of the city on a regular basis.

Wrong. Some of infantry forces in the book are ill-equipped peasant levies, but majority are well-equipped, semi-professional soldiers: pikemen, longbowmen, crossbowmen, dismounted men-at-arms. And even beyond pure descriptions, military organization, mobilization and strategic employment of armies all point to the conclusion that vast majority of Westerosi troops are professionals. If they truly were peasant levies, Robb Stark's army would have fallen apart before he even reached the Neck - forget about any campaign in Riverlands or Westerlands. Nor would have Tyrells be able to maintain 60 000+ soldiers in the field with levee en masse army and feudal society.

I did an overview of army strengths here:

https://militaryfantasy.home.blog/2020/02/11/military-of-westeros-1-organization-and-manpower/

But that is maximum potential strength of each kingdom - which is actually more relevant here, as "Dothraki horde vs Westeros" was plan for initial Viserys' invasion. Daenerys will not have just Dothraki with her, while Westeros will be depleted.

As far as Daenerys' invasion scenario goes, we will have maybe 80 000 Westerosi vs 83 000 Daenerys' troops, if my estimations are correct. But out of Daenerys' army, only 5 000 will be on par with Westerosi. Dothraki are incompetence personified, and Unsullied are no great shakes either. As it stands now, her army would get crushed in Westeros in a fairly short order, which means that she needs to get competent troops from somewhere: possibly Volantis, assuming its troops are actually competent.

Tiger soldiers are generally reckoned to be good.  And, she'll have thousands of professional sellswords, not only useful in their own right, but also quite capable of training the rest of her forces to fight against Westerosi soldiers.

Bear in mind too, that thousands of the best soldiers in Westeros are now dead, and more will die in the fighting between the Tyrells and fAegon/Arianne. 

I expect the biggest issue for Dany will be logistics - ferrying tens of thousands of soldiers across the Narrow Sea, and ensuring they're fed is going to need immense resources.

[frenin]

I don't think that the Dothraki on their own stand a chance against Westeros, unless it's as broken as the one Young G is facing right now, that said if significant forces join them, which is odd because... Dothraki, say the Dornish and half the Reach, i would not bet against them.

[argonak]

16 hours ago, Aebram said:

Good morrow Aldarion, I always enjoy your historical insights!  But I have to question this comment.  Unsullied are well trained, disciplined, and of couse fearless.  Why do you think Westerosi infantry could defeat them?

Per the accounts I recall, unsullied are essentially greek hoplites.  They're not even using a macedonian style phalanx with spears.  Outside of writer preference or shenanigans, any professional military force using middle ages weapons, armor and tactics are going to smash them.  They also won't run, reportedly, so after one defeat they'll be just gone.  They can probably stand up to Westeros cavalry reasonable well, but Westeros armies are reported to be using combined arms and would in a straight fight simply wreck them.

That's not even getting into all the weaknesses inherent in making young boys into eunuchs and expecting them to fight.

[Curled Finger]

On 10/2/2020 at 12:21 AM, Aldarion said:

I did an overview of army strengths here:

https://militaryfantasy.home.blog/2020/02/11/military-of-westeros-1-organization-and-manpower/

But that is maximum potential strength of each kingdom - which is actually more relevant here, as "Dothraki horde vs Westeros" was plan for initial Viserys' invasion. Daenerys will not have just Dothraki with her, while Westeros will be depleted.

As far as Daenerys' invasion scenario goes, we will have maybe 80 000 Westerosi vs 83 000 Daenerys' troops, if my estimations are correct. But out of Daenerys' army, only 5 000 will be on par with Westerosi. Dothraki are incompetence personified, and Unsullied are no great shakes either. As it stands now, her army would get crushed in Westeros in a fairly short order, which means that she needs to get competent troops from somewhere: possibly Volantis, assuming its troops are actually competent.

Wonderful!   Thank you for the link to better numbers.  It's interesting that you don't credit the Dothraki or Unsullied as real threats to the armies of Westeros.  We saw in AGOT how a fully armored Jorah is seriously injured in one to one combat with a Dothraki.  While I do understand the the defense in armor and protective devices, perhaps some weapons of Westeros even, there are always vulnerabilities when opposing numbers are greater.  I also assume Westerosi armies will be much depleted by the time Dany arrives.  However, as I ponder these possibilities of Dany's war machine, it's entirely possible she may add to her forces upon arrival or shortly thereafter.  It will be very interesting to read it when it all happens.  

[Daeron the Daring]

https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/06/the-population-of-the-seven-kingdoms/

This shows you the strenght of the 7K.

The Dothraki wouldn't be good for anything, maybe raiding, yet you have to consider that every peasant can get a sicle, a fork or a scythe in his hands, and that would mean more than 400000 men, because not that many died in the Battle of the Five Kings, just deserted. 

 

[Aldarion]

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Wonderful!   Thank you for the link to better numbers.  It's interesting that you don't credit the Dothraki or Unsullied as real threats to the armies of Westeros.  We saw in AGOT how a fully armored Jorah is seriously injured in one to one combat with a Dothraki.  While I do understand the the defense in armor and protective devices, perhaps some weapons of Westeros even, there are always vulnerabilities when opposing numbers are greater.  I also assume Westerosi armies will be much depleted by the time Dany arrives.  However, as I ponder these possibilities of Dany's war machine, it's entirely possible she may add to her forces upon arrival or shortly thereafter.  It will be very interesting to read it when it all happens.  

Jorah is hardly extraordinary fighter, whereas Quotho was a bloodrider. Also, looking at their duel, Jorah had a) not worn his helm and b) had donned what must have been really shitty-quality mail, seeing how Quotho managed to cut through it. This is guy trying to cut through mail. Even with nothing underneath, only results would be slight cuts and bruises. Yet Quotho managed to cut Jorah to the bone, through mail.

But more importantly, there is difference in military organization and culture. Dothraki culture is based around glory; unlike Mongols, they do not have combined arms approach (no heavy cavalry, no artillery, no infantry, no military engineering) and do not use tactics (that famed "feigned retreat" against Sarnori looks more like a rout which worked out than a deliberate feint). While Westerosi also have similar mindset (in some areas such as Reach), they a) still have highly varied military capable of combined-arms operations, b) have significant technological advantage and c) are capable of complex tactics (unless commanded by the likes of Mace Tyrell). Daenerys will have all elements of a combined-arms army, but fact remains that hers will be a highly heterogenous force, comprised of elements which likely will never have worked together before coming under her - Unsullied, Dothraki, freedmen, sellswords. Westerosi meanwhile have the experience of regularly fielding armies numbering multiple tens of thousands of troops and comprised of multiple combat arms. Realistically, Daenerys should not be able to win even against a significantly weaker enemy army, let alone one that matches hers numerically. Dothraki would fare even worse, as they have shown no ability to besiege cities beyond "sticking around in general area until city starves" and would not be capable of countering Westerosi pikemen + longbowmen mix.

1 hour ago, HerblYY said:

https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/06/the-population-of-the-seven-kingdoms/

This shows you the strenght of the 7K.

The Dothraki wouldn't be good for anything, maybe raiding, yet you have to consider that every peasant can get a sicle, a fork or a scythe in his hands, and that would mean more than 400000 men, because not that many died in the Battle of the Five Kings, just deserted. 

Eh, "every peasant" getting a sicle or a fork would easily mean 4 000 000 troops and potentially more - Roman Republic managed to mobilize up to 10% of population going all-out, feudal societies could do the same if they wanted to (but rarely did).

Also, population of Westeros can go anywhere between 12 000 000 and 98 000 000, but personally I would put it towards higher end of the range - so cca 50 to 100 million.