Covid-19 #18: Everything Old is New Again!

[rotting sea cow]

20 hours ago, Mudguard said:

Now that we know much more about the virus and disease, including who is most at risk and how to best treat these people, and now that there are several treatments that help, we are seeing much lower rates of deaths in the second waves that are sweeping across Europe.  Slowly opening up things now, while carefully monitoring everything, is a much more reasonable approach than just going for herd immunity right at the beginning when we had little understanding of the virus.

I think this is the best argument to take (harsh) measures early: The real possibility that in few months the understanding of the disease and the virus will allow newer treatments that drastically reduce death and severe illness. These models do not take into account this effect. Now we have a plethora of medicines and treatments, with some of them very promising. 

20 hours ago, Mudguard said:

Personally, I like the approach taken by countries like South Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan, etc., all of which have kept the disease in check from the beginning and have both low cases numbers and low deaths.  It was possible at the beginning for each country to do the same thing, but do to poor choices and a lack of will, here we are.

Don't forget Uruguay

 

21 hours ago, Zorral said:

Yes, protecting the vulnerable while keeping the economy open depends entirely on protecting the vulnerable, and Sweden did not do that, nor has any other nation, and all for the same reasons: greed, selfishness and making profit.  So in the end the economy crashes, whether open or not.

And closing the country doesn't necessarily prevents deaths. Just ask the Argentinians, the longest lockdown eva(tm) and they are at 22k and rising (and they are undercounting). Whilst nearby, little Uruguay hasn't locked down and has managed to keep the infections at very low level (49 deaths today)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

12 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Don't forget Uruguay

 

And closing the country doesn't necessarily prevents deaths. Just ask the Argentinians, the longest lockdown eva(tm) and they are at 22k and rising (and they are undercounting). Whilst nearby, little Uruguay hasn't locked down and has managed to keep the infections at very low level (49 deaths today)

Uruguay probably doesn't have the funds to do a lot of testing, especially outside of Montevideo. And like Brazil, Argentina has giant slums where I'm sure no testing is occurring at all. The numbers from all three countries are likely to be significantly under counted. 

[rotting sea cow]

43 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Uruguay probably doesn't have the funds to do a lot of testing, especially outside of Montevideo. And like Brazil, Argentina has giant slums where I'm sure no testing is occurring at all. The numbers from all three countries are likely to be significantly under counted. 

Uruguay has probably the best standard of living in S. America. If Chile can do almost 3 millions of tests, there is no reason to think that Uruguay can't.

Also, who are you going to test? Practically no country in the world is knocking doors and testing random people. They test people with symptoms and people who have been in contact with infected. These things that Uruguay is doing as well as aggressive contact tracing which can only realistically be done when the number of infected is low.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Uruguay has probably the best standard of living in S. America. If Chile can do almost 3 millions of tests, there is no reason to think that Uruguay can't.

Also, who are you going to test? Practically no country in the world is knocking doors and testing random people. They test people with symptoms and people who have been in contact with infected. These things that Uruguay is doing as well as aggressive contact tracing which can only realistically be done when the number of infected is low.

Google says it ranks third, behind Argentina, where I did a study abroad, and it felt like night and day leaving there to go visit Uruguay. I should also note that Argentina’s stock market fell by nearly 50% in a single day not all that long ago, so we’re talking about the best of mediocrity here.

And yes, they’re not going to actively go out into the slums and favelas, but the point I was making is that they’re not going to be able to track what’s happening there, and I doubt they even want to.

[Zorral]

Today I picked up another book from the library grab 'n go program, which has only been going on since August.

After the library, I went to Trader Joe's, for the first time since very early March before shutdown  (and even then I was wearing gloves, but not yet mask, because nothing had been said about masks, but I started wearing gloves in stores at the end of February). This is the first store I've been in except for the Gourmet Garage, where I began going maybe once a week - 10 days, in July, during its empty periods. But with the information that coronavirus infections are spiking throughout the northeast, and particularly in NYC and NY, I feel we have to be thinking hard about stocking again. TJ's brown rice was on sale, as were organic chicken and some other items that we depend on. I was wearing gloves, eye protection and mask. There were few people in TJ's (they keep a customer numbers at a minimum, though even these tended to stay too close, but the aisles are narrow), and I got out quick.

Got home to see NY City Council President informs us that the plastic bag ban will be implemented for the second time on the 19th. That last time the plastic bag ban went into effect, within days everything was shut down and the ban went out the window. Clearly the state is operating on a timeline put in place before the last two weeks brought us very troubling rapid increase in new cases.

Sigh.

The whole idea of going back to March, April, May -- or lordessa, but I think we have to, because, well, we all know.

Losing the library again, makes my heart and brain just hurt.

But that's what the sorts such as Sturgis, the ultra orthodox, the ravers and the richies are doing to us -- AGAIN.

[The Anti-Targ]

22 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Uruguay has probably the best standard of living in S. America. If Chile can do almost 3 millions of tests, there is no reason to think that Uruguay can't.

Also, who are you going to test? Practically no country in the world is knocking doors and testing random people. They test people with symptoms and people who have been in contact with infected. These things that Uruguay is doing as well as aggressive contact tracing which can only realistically be done when the number of infected is low.

Uruguay has a pretty low testing rate. It has almost 1/3 the testing rate of NZ and almost double the cases for 60% of the population. Guaranteed they are under-counting the number of cases, significantly more than countries with a much higher per capita testing rate.

 

[kairparavel]

Couple of thoughts on masks.

First, what is a mask supposed to look like? What is it supposed to be made from? How long can you wear a mask before it stops being useful? I have ideas. You have ideas. But we need actual facts. With MC going back to work in a kitchen he prefers disposable over the cotton masks we wear for grocery outings etc. I struggled with what to get because how do we know that what's in the box is suitable when mask making (and hand sanitizer manufacturing) has become a side economy for so many? Who is using proper materials and manufacturing process versus who is filling our lungs with fiberglass shards? (Hyperbole yes, but these things are covering airways).

If you want masks and mask wearing to become part of the norm, then there needs to be some actual guidelines for manufacturing and wearing non-surgical masks. If you've seen any recent photos of Lana Del Rey you'll see why there needs to be more than just 'Wear a mask.' And yes, I understand that everything I've just said is laughable under this administration but at any rate...

Second thing is about fines. They'll just become the new parking ticket. It's pretty low stakes to get a fine in Walmart. Higher stakes is being barred from entering Walmart. And Publix. And Macys. And the bar, etc. But your minimum wage Walmart employee shouldn't be the one barring entry to establishments. Anyways. Coupled with that is the will of establishments to enforce mask bylaws. How many businesses have been fined and/or shutdown in these phased reopening after defying the guidelines because 'America!'? Probably not as many as should be.

Another thing about fines is that it becomes another financial penalty on low income persons. It's not lost on me the cost of these items - 10-25 dollars for cotton, 10-30 dollars for a box of disposable. And with that price point for low income families, my first point becomes even more important regarding reuse and wear and tear. There is a distinction between Sharon at Trader Joe's crying about freedom and other people who likely want to do the right thing but maybe can't afford to. Masks are important but they are also an expense item on already tight budgets. 

I certainly have no answers.

[Raja]

Masks alone are not a silver bullet, neither are lockdowns - No one intervention is the silver bullet - just like *many* other infectious diseases, you need a host of public health interventions ( which obviously include masks and social distancing), to try and control the spread of the virus.

Here in the UK we're seeing what happens when you do nothing with the time that lockdown has bought you - with a failed tracking and tracing system and a failed testing strategy, and a failure in public health communication and messaging, we're looking at a bleak winter.

As an aside - here's an informative interview with Drosten, one of the virologists leading Germany's response to the pandemic - found it fascinating, especially his comments on a vaccine

 

[Zorral]

The solution to this problem of poverty and masks is obvious, as are many solutions that should be implemented for many of the issues and problems and hardships caused by this contagious disease.
 

Every community and neighborhood has set up a community distribution center for masks -- as well as food and testing.

But that's too simple, I guess.  Also it would likely need a federal or at least state mandate, and since serious illness and death from this disease is a hoax made to destroy our shoggoth master politically, hell no we won't go!

I actually heard some old screaming this at the Farmer's Market earlier today when he was being told to leave because he refused to wear a mask.

 

[rotting sea cow]

7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Uruguay has a pretty low testing rate. It has almost 1/3 the testing rate of NZ and almost double the cases for 60% of the population. Guaranteed they are under-counting the number of cases, significantly more than countries with a much higher per capita testing rate.

They are doing pooled testing as far as I understand, which allowed them to quickly go through suspected groups. Certainly they are undercounting as every other country, but there is no evidence so far they are having large outbreaks. The latest were related to teenagers parties but it didn't spread further, it seems. Certainly, they might have been just lucky and benefit themselves from the reduced travel and other countries quarantines, but at the same time they have limited community spread so far, saving themselves of having to close the country again for second waves, which is the dilemma that e.g. european countries struggle now.

 

On 10/9/2020 at 5:17 PM, Tywin et al. said:

Google says it ranks third, behind Argentina, where I did a study abroad, and it felt like night and day leaving there to go visit Uruguay. I should also note that Argentina’s stock market fell by nearly 50% in a single day not all that long ago, so we’re talking about the best of mediocrity here.

And yes, they’re not going to actively go out into the slums and favelas, but the point I was making is that they’re not going to be able to track what’s happening there, and I doubt they even want to.

Well, it depends whom you ask is where Uruguay sits. I've also been in these countries. But anyway, as in any LA country inequality is very high and that has been the Achilles heel over there. The virus was initially brought by international travellers and it was contained for a while as more affluent people were able to take measures, but once SARS-CoV-2 started to hit poorer areas it was a lost cause and there is really no way to control the spread. It has been the same in Peru, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, etc. So far, it hasn't happened in Uruguay.

Since I was made aware of this peculiar situation, I've been checking regularly the newspapers and forums and it seems that COVID-19 is not a major topic over there.

1 hour ago, Raja said:

Masks alone are not a silver bullet, neither are lockdowns - No one intervention is the silver bullet - just like *many* other infectious diseases, you need a host of public health interventions ( which obviously include masks and social distancing), to try and control the spread of the virus.

This is my main point. There seems to be the idea that this can only be fought with lockdowns, which is not the case and actually - given that it's extremely damaging - it should be the last resort.

I don't criticize the early lockdowns as countries were struggling to understand what was going on. I still - of course - criticize the governments for not putting enough attention.

1 hour ago, Raja said:

Here in the UK we're seeing what happens when you do nothing with the time that lockdown has bought you - with a failed tracking and tracing system and a failed testing strategy, and a failure in public health communication and messaging, we're looking at a bleak winter.

Pretty much. It seems to me that Europe has not only wasted the lockdowns but also the whole summer and now there is no strategy at all.

 

 

[Clueless Northman]

8 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Something just has to be done about the anti-maskers. Start with requiring masks, violators initially get educational classes online and escalate to fines, then heavy fines for repeat offenders. That biotch at the Wal-Mart without her mask is going to think twice if it costs her $200. 

Well, to begin with, I'd just force them to immediately undergo an emergency covid-test and then force them to quarantine until the result comes. Being stuck for 1 day with having to explain to their boss or professor why they couldn't attend will be fun.

Then, I fully agree with Kairpravel. We're months into this shit and with full availability of masks, yet no education, no serious news, no serious campaign about how to wear them, what not to do, when to discard them (and how). And masks cost, if it's a public safety issue, people shouldn't pay the full price for that - specially when they're still sold for way more than they should.

 

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Pretty much. It seems to me that Europe has not only wasted the lockdowns but also the whole summer and now there is no strategy at all.

Oh, the strategy in most European countries was obvious: the political leaders basically expected the virus to disappear into thin air during the summer and things to go back to the normal - just like they expected the virus never to leave China, and later on never to cross the Italian border. But then, they're mostly stuck to an economic system whose entire premise is magical thinking, so that doesn't even surprise me anymore.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Everyone should know by now

I work for a hospital, and management regularly walks around without masks. No one follows basic standards. We don't even have drinking water in most places at our facility. It's a joke. 

Good luck with all that

[Clueless Northman]

15 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Again, stuff *we* all know, because we can and do Google and are well-read people, but there DO need to be PSAs on this like the PSAs on AIDS and drunk driving in the 80’s.

We're more than 7 months in this shit in Europe and America, and the official response is still abysmal in most countries; this is a bloody joke. Besides, some European countries are going to have to limit testing because they're basically running out of tests. How this is possible is just beyond my understanding. We're really led by complete dunces. Gee, if all "Western" countries had such idiots in charge back in 1939, we would all be talking German, Japanese or maybe Russian right now - they're intellectually diminished and fully unable of grasping what an emergency actually is and how to act in such cases

As for masks, like you, when I just use one for a very short time, say 15 min to go out buy a drink and a sandwich, then I put it into a plastic bag and use it again a few days later for similar use. When it comes to lengthy use, I discard them when they're not needed anymore (sure, it can be wasteful to use a mask for 1 hour, and I could try to use them a couple of times instead, but that's a bit of a hassle to keep tabs on several used masks).

[DireWolfSpirit]

I hang a few masks on my truck mirror and leave a few in my work locker and then have another half dozen that I'm recycling through the laundry so once a week everything is replaced with fresh ones. Been my routine for the year. Am about ready to get another dozen or so as the older ones are get frayed after enough cycles.

Work hands out a weekly mask but they are so cheaply made they usually do not make it through a whole work day and I just give up on using theirs.

Honesty the CDC or Health Dept can come out with whatever guidance they please, but for me out of self preservation, I will be wearing a mask till I'm inoculated someday. This is what I'm going to do. I'm not relying on any background chatter, media sensationalism or untrustworthy administration officials to guide me otherwise. I feel more secure socially distancing, and taking the mask precaution and will not stop till I decide the threat has subsided.

One big thing I've been preaching at work is for people to stop sitting in clusters on their lunch breaks. It's a unnecessary fools gamble but people still do it. I myself will not sit within 10 feet of anyone at lunch (I avoid the lunchroom altogether).

We have a newly elected Union President who is recovering from a case of Covid and will be back on the job next week. I'm thinking of making this point to him( distancing during lunch) and asking him to push that point with the company to come up with better breakroom arrangements that do not result in herd clusters. Habits need to be broken and people need to stop endangering one another imo.

With him being fresh back from a infection himself, my hope is he could be a powerful advocate to push for this step.

 

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

With him being fresh back from a infection himself, my hope is he could be a powerful advocate to push for this step.

I really hope this is the case!  I too will not be ditching masks until vaccine time, and maybe not even then, considering how long it will take, and that there won't be any strategic plan to innoculate everyone if They are running thing.  And even if we win this upcoming election, it's going to take a long time to get to every community since Those allowed with glee and joy to let the disease run unchecked and blossom in every corner of the land.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

We're more than 7 months in this shit in Europe and America, and the official response is still abysmal in most countries; this is a bloody joke. Besides, some European countries are going to have to limit testing because they're basically running out of tests. How this is possible is just beyond my understanding. We're really led by complete dunces. Gee, if all "Western" countries had such idiots in charge back in 1939, we would all be talking German, Japanese or maybe Russian right now - they're intellectually diminished and fully unable of grasping what an emergency actually is and how to act in such cases

As for masks, like you, when I just use one for a very short time, say 15 min to go out buy a drink and a sandwich, then I put it into a plastic bag and use it again a few days later for similar use. When it comes to lengthy use, I discard them when they're not needed anymore (sure, it can be wasteful to use a mask for 1 hour, and I could try to use them a couple of times instead, but that's a bit of a hassle to keep tabs on several used masks).

And who picks them?

[DireWolfSpirit]

6 minutes ago, Zorral said:

I really hope this is the case!  I too will not be ditching masks until vaccine time, and maybe not even then, considering how long it will take, and that there won't be any strategic plan to innoculate everyone if They are running thing.  And even if we win this upcoming election, it's going to take a long time to get to every community since Those allowed with glee and joy to let the disease run unchecked and blossom in every corner of the land.

 

Right, we need to be doing the masking for the long haul likely.

[Zorral]

Months and months of information and phone calls and information and outreach, now with red zones popping up all over the city -- well this is one of the primary reasons, I, at least, will probably have to wear a mask until I die and be unable to socialize with my friends and have to stay inside my own apartment as much as possible:

https://gothamist.com/news/simchat-torah-begins-usual-borough-park-large-crowds-and-few-masks-despite-red-zone-restrictions

I went over to the River today -- wearing a mask of course.  It was packed with people, mostly, except for the skateboarders and bikers, masked.  The wind that came off the River under the overcast sky bearing the rain from what was hurricane Delta, was cold.  The temperature today never got out of the 60's, and the air temperature quickly dropped after 3PM Daylight Savings Time. We're going to be back in the virus fostering weather much sooner than many believe. 

 

 

[mcbigski]

5 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

We have a newly elected Union President who is recovering from a case of Covid and will be back on the job next week. I'm thinking of making this point to him( distancing during lunch)...

 

If he has recovered from Covid in recent weeks, why do you need to distance?  That makes zero sense from a disease transmission point of view.  I guess there are symbolic reasons to do that, but do you ever science?

[A True Kaniggit]

11 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

If he has recovered from Covid in recent weeks, why do you need to distance?  That makes zero sense from a disease transmission point of view.  I guess there are symbolic reasons to do that, but do you ever science?

Ahhh. mcbigski.

You’re always good for a laugh.

Remember that time you claimed, “the Democrats are the party of slavery!” ?

As if the last 150 years or so didn’t exist.