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Covid-19 #18: Everything Old is New Again!


Fragile Bird

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22 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Indeed the first wave lockdowns were meant to buy time for a vaccine to be developed but also for test, track, trace and isolate systems to be developed an implemented, so that subsequent waves would be smaller, and lockdowns could be shorter and less restrictive. But it appears that time may have been squandered in many places and systems are not in place to control spread during the northern winter.

Which is pretty much what happened in China. It'a little surreal reading this thread because the virus was under control here months ago! Things have been pretty much back to normal since the begining of summer. It's crazy that Europe is still undergoing lockdowns while Wuhan is operating more or less normally. A very  strict lockdown will stop the virus but all these wierd half lockdowns don't appear to be enough. 

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1 hour ago, Darzin said:

Which is pretty much what happened in China. It'a little surreal reading this thread because the virus was under control here months ago! Things have been pretty much back to normal since the begining of summer. It's crazy that Europe is still undergoing lockdowns while Wuhan is operating more or less normally. A very  strict lockdown will stop the virus but all these wierd half lockdowns don't appear to be enough. 

Well a very strict lockdown will stop the virus.. until you open up again, at which point cases go right back up again. Which is pretty much what we are seeing now. Europe actually have a series of very strict lockdowns, and as they gradually let people back out, the virus started to spread. Which is entirely predictable.

Really I don't think it really works to try and compare 'strict lockdowns' to 'half lockdowns'. I'm not even sure what these half lockdowns are? Sweden is often touted as a country that didn't do a lockdown, but it was much more of a 'half lockdown' as it did implement a number of measures, but not as many as other western countries, and essentially has front loaded most of its cases it seems.

The real point about lockdowns, is what you aim to do with the time in lockdown and how you plan to get out of it. If you don't have a viable track and trace system in place or a vaccine then you will see resurgence of the virus. 

It's also hard to compare a country like China to those in the West. There is simply the issue of personal freedoms and so individuals will always resist strict measures over the long term and westerners don't have the same level of trust / fear of the state as those in China. 

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I heard on the radio that in Indonesia, if you are caught without a mask on while being someplace where you have to have a mask, the punishment is having to dig a grave. And that there are stories that some places make you lay in the grave for a while too.

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"Overwhelmed by cases, North Dakota tells residents with COVID-19 to do their own contact tracing"

https://www.inforum.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6725891-Overwhelmed-by-cases-North-Dakota-tells-residents-with-COVID-19-to-do-their-own-contact-tracing

 

Quote

Fargo Cass Public Health spokeswoman Holly Scott said the agency also has a backlog of cases and recently asked the health department for help with the burden. Scott said she didn't know how many cases sit unassigned to contact tracers or when the agency's load became too much to lift. She added that the agency hasn't heard anything about a change in strategy from the state.

Nowhere in the US is there any leadership, direction or even a clue, it seems to contain Covid-19's wildfiring. It's going to be far worse this winter than last winter and spring.  Here we've been told we have one more week before the new cases -- and deaths, which had been going down -- explode.

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A volunteer in the AstraZeneca trial, in Brazil, has died.

The trial will continue. They don’t know if it was related to the vaccine, or if they even got the vaccine or the placebo. Obviously more news will come out after investigation.

I don’t know why they can’t tell us if it was the vaccine or the placebo very quickly.

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54 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

A volunteer in the AstraZeneca trial, in Brazil, has died.

The trial will continue. They don’t know if it was related to the vaccine, or if they even got the vaccine or the placebo. Obviously more news will come out after investigation.

I don’t know why they can’t tell us if it was the vaccine or the placebo very quickly.

If the trial is continuing, AstraZeneca already knows, but just isn't willing to share, whether the patient received the vaccine, placebo, or nothing yet, which they can determine very quickly, and whether the cause of death could be related to the vaccine or clearly isn't (i.e., car accident).  It's probably a clear cut case that the vaccine wasn't responsible for the death, otherwise they would have to pause the trial.  Anything else would be highly unethical.

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30 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

If the trial is continuing, AstraZeneca already knows, but just isn't willing to share, whether the patient received the vaccine, placebo, or nothing yet, which they can determine very quickly, and whether the cause of death could be related to the vaccine or clearly isn't (i.e., car accident).  It's probably a clear cut case that the vaccine wasn't responsible for the death, otherwise they would have to pause the trial.  Anything else would be highly unethical.

According to https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-54634518 they were in the placebo group:

The BBC understands that the volunteer did not receive the vaccine.

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7 hours ago, Denvek said:

My taste is already coming back, so it looks like I've got away with the very mild strain.

The pedant is coming out in me. It's not necessarily a mild strain. You just, thank R'hllor, had mild symptoms because your immune system didn't go batshit crazy in its response to the virus. But someone else getting the same strain from wherever you picked it up could be severely affected.

No doubt an unnecessary word of caution, but don't be lulled into a false sense of security that anyone potentially picking the virus up from you will also have mild symptoms. Chances are they will have mild symptoms because the vast majority of people do, but it won't be because of the particular strain you have. 

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49 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Right; I almost got pedantic, and I’m an accountant, which means I just like *accuracy*.

As of now, there are no different “strains” of COVID. It’s all SARS-CoV-2. There are different variants, but it’s like a brown eyed person saying hello to you vs a blue eyed person.

You have a mild *case* of the virus, which may be due to a confluence of factors - your age, general health, viral load, etc.

Here is a pretty good article that talks about strain, variant and lineage, which pretty much lines up with my understanding. That will allow all of us to become COVID pedants and appear to be know-it-alls when talking with our irl pleb friends and work colleagues.

https://medium.com/swlh/variants-lineages-and-strains-of-coronavirus-7a71a0e699d7

 

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17 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

“It is currently appropriate to consider these lineages all the same virus”

Sounds good - exactly like what we were saying.

Definitely. From a public health perspective, and esp health communication perspective, for now, even if there are  different strains according to the first definition in the article (actual functional differences) there is no point in creating any potential confusion out there by talking about strains, lineages etc. As the article notes, there possibly are up to 10 functionally distinct strains of SAR-COV-2, but we do not have different public health responses according to strains (not sure about vaccine coverage though??).

There is actually some danger to people coming to the view that there are mild and severe strains. It can create the impression in people's minds that if they have a mild illness that must mean they have a mild strain and they might think they are doing a great public service by having COVID parties to spread the mild strain of the virus among family and friends thus "protecting" them from the bad strains of the virus. This would be an example of a little bit of knowledge being dangerous.

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On 10/20/2020 at 6:43 PM, Rippounet said:

The curfew turns out to be a huge bummer. Lack of social activities at a time when the workload and work-related stress have increased dramatically is really tough. I know everyone is struggling to cope (with the anxieties and fears), and I'm starting to wonder what consequences this is going to have if it goes on. Can people really carry on like this for months or years? We're basically allowed to work, but not much besides. Daily life slowly devolves into an absurd routine in which one needs to keep face - we do it for the kids I think. Folks at work tend to be unusually cheerful to compensate, which only adds to the absurdity. At times it feels like living through the sick brainchild of kafkaesque bureaucracy (with a bazillion new procedures to follow) and beckettian tragi-comedy.
I fear that I'll become addicted to every kind of drug I can get my hands on before this is over.

Yes this whole thing is a massive strain on my mental health, and I can only imagine it must be for others as well. My sister was telling me about the precautions my nephew's basketball team is taking, and mentioned that the high school has had more deaths by suicide than covid. Maybe not covid-related, but then again maybe.

I've basically been in the same 1-bedroom condo by myself since March. I see practically no one. I touch no one. It's been somewhat bearable over the summer, but as the dark and cold descends--gods, honestly there are days I question how I will handle it except for the sheer fact that I there's no other choice. I've applied 3 times so far for a travel exemption to reunite with my partner in Australia. I am willing to pay thousands of dollars for scarce plane tickets, pay for a 2 week quarantine there, do whatever the government asks, I've submitted pages and pages of proof that we are genuine partners, but I just get the same one sentence rejection. I'm in a facebook group for people in similar situations and some have applied 30+ times before receiving their exemptions (while others get it on try 1 or 2--honestly it seems to be half a lottery more than actually checking off the supposedly sufficient requirements). And that's just one particular set of people (partners where one person lives in Australia and the other abroad), and there are thousands of people in it that are suffering. These sorts of mini crises are playing out all across the world.

(None of this to say, btw, that covid restrictions are unnecessary! Just that this situation is awful awful awful and has severe impacts beyond just the direct issue of catching covid.)

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