Heartofice Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, mormont said: The problem is, the government are trying to find a middle way. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54518002 That 'robust action', of course, was the 'rule of six' and advice to work from home if possible. Meanwhile, there's evidence that the scientific advisers were against reopening universities for face-to-face teaching for any subject where that is not absolutely essential, and now want face-to-face teaching suspended for at least two weeks where possible. Why did the government not go for a short lockdown when it was recommended? Why did it allow - indeed, encourage - universities to reopen? Because internally, the Conservative party hates lockdown measures and keeps trying to find ways to compromise in order to 'save the economy', leading to lack of clarity, changing rules and further spread of cases (and the economic damage, of course, still happens because that's not how things work. You can't just duck the economic hit by sacrificing a few grannies and crossing your fingers.) Is it even about teaching? Surely the greater issue is that Students gather together, touch each other a lot ( cos it’s fun) and hang around in big groups and mix. The teaching bit seems rather irrelevant. Im assuming that the real goal is to get numbers so low that a track and trace system can work effectively. Even that seems rather unrealistic. Plus looking at the numbers it doesn’t seem like we are ever heading towards the doomsday graph they threw at us, not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stannis Eats No Peaches Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Heartofice said: Is it even about teaching? Surely the greater issue is that Students gather together, touch each other a lot ( cos it’s fun) and hang around in big groups and mix. The teaching bit seems rather irrelevant. If teaching were entirely online, students wouldn’t have to be physically at university. If the universities all closed their halls of residence as a result, you wouldn’t have as many students clustered together, which is indeed where the problem lies. You also wouldn’t have students locked in their halls and left to live on shitty meal deals. Gavin Williamson’s been awfully quiet on this matter. Maybe he’s decided one shit show was enough for him this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Stannis Eats No Peaches said: If teaching were entirely online, students wouldn’t have to be physically at university. If the universities all closed their halls of residence as a result, you wouldn’t have as many students clustered together, which is indeed where the problem lies. You also wouldn’t have students locked in their halls and left to live on shitty meal deals. Gavin Williamson’s been awfully quiet on this matter. Maybe he’s decided one shit show was enough for him this year? Sure , but for how long do we keep doing that? Years? Until there is a reliable vaccine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthanluke Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 58 minutes ago, Heartofice said: Aren't a large proportion of the cases amongst students? Not school children? Aren't children about half as likely to catch and spread the virus as adults? So closing schools makes little sense. Closing most of the businesses in fact makes little sense actually. Most restaurants and pubs are doing fantastic work sticking to the rules and those places are cleaner and safer than most peoples homes. I saw a stat that said the number of cases coming out of gyms was absolutely insignificant, so closing those would be ridiculous as well. I know my own gym is ludicrously clean, and everyone there is going out of their way to wipe everything clean and keep their distance. So I'm not sure why they don't pay more attention to where these actual cases are happening and see what they can do there. Or maybe this entire plan to have local lockdowns is in fact a stupid one that can't work, maybe because the areas they are locking down are just too big and cases are already too spread out, and because people don't confine themselves to just a small area but have the ability to travel. On top of that, is this really the plan now? Just keep locking down everything, hoping to slow the spread.. but to what end? What is the goal? I still don't understand. Are we really just crossing our fingers for a vaccine in April? That is moronic. 73 confirmrd cases from 22 million gym visits since lockdown ended yet gyms in Liverpool are being told to closed. Bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, lessthanluke said: 73 confirmrd cases from 22 million gym visits since lockdown ended yet gyms in Liverpool are being told to closed. Bonkers. It's weird, all the people at work are really strict about using the gym and following the rules (presumably because we dont want to lose it), but slapdash as fuck with everything else. I'm so unpopular with the PC's as I keep shouting at people for not wearing their masks when in cars and minibuses. If we cant even have the people responsible for enforcing the rules buying into it, we have no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthanluke Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said: It's weird, all the people at work are really strict about using the gym and following the rules (presumably because we dont want to lose it), but slapdash as fuck with everything else. I'm so unpopular with the PC's as I keep shouting at people for not wearing their masks when in cars and minibuses. If we cant even have the people responsible for enforcing the rules buying into it, we have no chance. I think your brackets covered it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said: We dont have the time to investigate real crimes, online offence needs to take a back seat. I know it goes on all the time, but still, I'm not sure I'm down with police officers deciding for themselves what is a 'real' crime and what isn't. That's not OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 25 minutes ago, mormont said: I know it goes on all the time, but still, I'm not sure I'm down with police officers deciding for themselves what is a 'real' crime and what isn't. That's not OK. We have always had the ability to use discretion. We couldnt function without it. Obviously being you you took that literally to make a silly point. Everyone else, I'm sure, understand the distinction between offences online (silly name calling that might technically meet the definition of malicious communications for example) and serious crime that should take priority. I accept serious offences happen online, this isnt what we are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Discretion is needed, of course. But there's surely a disinction between using discretion to assess whether a particular situation is best treated as an offence, and writing off large numbers of incidents as 'silly' and 'not real crime' on the basis that they take place online, or in broadcast interviews, or whatever other contexts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Yeah I don't think it should or would be up to individual officers to decide which laws are silly or not. I'd say there needs to be a rethink about the role and involvement of the police when it comes to 'stuff people said online'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 5 hours ago, mormont said: The problem is, the government are trying to find a middle way. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54518002 That 'robust action', of course, was the 'rule of six' and advice to work from home if possible. Meanwhile, there's evidence that the scientific advisers were against reopening universities for face-to-face teaching for any subject where that is not absolutely essential, and now want face-to-face teaching suspended for at least two weeks where possible. Why did the government not go for a short lockdown when it was recommended? Why did it allow - indeed, encourage - universities to reopen? Because internally, the Conservative party hates lockdown measures and keeps trying to find ways to compromise in order to 'save the economy', leading to lack of clarity, changing rules and further spread of cases (and the economic damage, of course, still happens because that's not how things work. You can't just duck the economic hit by sacrificing a few grannies and crossing your fingers.) If we're going to blame the university fiasco on the mentality of the Tory party why have the SNP done the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Chaircat Meow said: If we're going to blame the university fiasco on the mentality of the Tory party why have the SNP done the same thing? Fair question, and it's worth noting we don't (AFAIK) have the advice given to Scottish ministers. It would clearly have been extremely difficult to have a different policy in Scotland given the significant cross-border flow of students at many unis, but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 After getting caught up over the last page, my question is, doesn’t the government give a breakdown of who is being newly infected? Do they not tell you where clusters and outbreaks are? Is this a silly question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 So I was reading the SAGE evidence behind the different public health interventions that have been implemented so far, and came across this gem regarding curfews in pubs, bars and restaurants Quote Curfews likely to have a marginal impact. Low confidence Also, re: universities - it's woeful how unprepared universities were for what the scientists were fairly confident would happen. Quote Outbreaks are very likely in universities, given their size and the degree of close contact typical through shared living arrangements and while socialising and during lectures and practicals. Highly feasible for HE institutions to offer remote learning for many courses. Likely fewer issues with equity of access for students, though these remain problematic. It's no surprise that lockdowns are the most effective intervention Quote Very high impact.Reduction of Rt from around 2.7 to around 0.6 post “lockdown” in most of the UK(i.e. roughly 75% reduction) But the circuit breaker thing they wanted also has a significant impact Quote Likely to have similar levels of effectiveness as national lockdown in Spring, reducing Rt to below 1.However, would only apply for a short period and so have limited effect.Modelling suggests that14 daysof significant reduction in transmission in Octobercould put the epidemic back 28 days and could significantly reduce the prevalence of infection in December.As with all interventions the earlier it is implemented (in the face of growing incidence) the higher the impact Posted this in the covid thread, but we basically wasted the time we bought during the first lockdown and we are seeing the consequences of that right now. Gotta somehow pray that the time bought during these second phase of lockdowns isn't wasted ( I'm sure we won't be seeing things like Eat out to help out, or Boris telling us to go to work etc). Honestly, this summer can be used as a perfect case study of a disaster in public health communication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 143 deaths. I hope that us a statistical outlier and not the start of a trend. I was hoping that huge increase in cases would be offset by improved treatment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Looking at the SAGE advice, and it also seems that Starmer is pushing for a circuit break option. But then from the above link it basically says that closing hospitality has only a moderate effect, closing gyms has a low effect.. so why bother closing those? We can see from the age ranges and locations where the cases are, and a large portion of it is students. So fix that issue. The circuit break option feels like using a sledgehammer to fit a nail. Honestly I don’t think you’ll get the same level of adherence now anyway, their levels of confidence in it are way too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 45 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said: 143 deaths. I hope that us a statistical outlier and not the start of a trend. I was hoping that huge increase in cases would be offset by improved treatment. It's roughly a 10 percent difference in mortality with Dexa among the sickest patients ( Ventilated ones) and a 3 percent mortality difference among those requiring oxygen. It's the only drug we have for mortality. There's certainly a difference but if you have rising cases to the extent seen in the UK ( even amongst the young), you will eventually see hospitalizations and deaths And these deaths are probably from the cases a couple of weeks ago, the numbers we are seeing right now will be reflected in the deaths in about 2 weeks to a month, so I imagine it will get worse but I hope it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 I saw somewhere that the average age of deaths in recent weeks was about 85. Where are these happening would be my question. If we are supposedly protecting the elderly then this should be impossible. Are infections happening in hospitals or care homes, if so then that is an absolute disgrace, those are 2 places where there should be zero infections now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 9 hours ago, lessthanluke said: 73 confirmrd cases from 22 million gym visits since lockdown ended yet gyms in Liverpool are being told to closed. Bonkers. Where did these numbers come from and how was gym defined? Honest to goodness, and not to get into a fight with you, but this sounds at best wishful thinking and at worst a load of crap. Just a quick search on a case in Calgary that I remembered, from June or July, a fitness club had at least 42 cases, and now a spin gym in Hamilton, ON is up to 51 cases with another 90 in self-isolation to see if they develop symptoms. That's at least 93 cases from a country a little more than half the size of the UK, and I'm pretty sure I remember reading about cases from other provinces related to gyms but I can't be bothered trying to find them. You've talked about your place and it certainly sounds like a gym that likely is safer than other fitness gyms. Honestly, you should be able to ask for an exemption but governments in this pandemic aren't interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derfel Cadarn Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Shielding still not been renewed for those particularly vulnerable. Trchnically I’m still in that category even though I stopped the inmune suppressants in March per GP guidance (and my consultant agreed with my suggestion to stay off them indefinitely to see if my condition was manageable without). If it flares up, I’ll need to go back on them, not that it makes much difference as I’ll be working from home until march next year (unless covid’s still a big problem). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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