UK Politics - It's a bit glitchy

[Heartofice]

Just now, Zorral said:

So you're volunteering to take out the bodies and bury the dead when the numbers overwhelm the facilities and capacities and even the manpower.  You're volunteering to nurse the 'mildly' ill and empty their bedpans and wash their bodies and change their clothes because there are no nurses available, due to illness, death and just plain burn-out, and well, lack of numbers.  You're volunteering to bring food to the children left without care because their parents are too sick to do it, clean their homes and wash their clothes and tuck them into bed.  O would there were thousands and thousands more just like you!

 

There is no evidence any of that would happen which is exactly my point. The NHS never came close to breaking, nowhere near, and that was at its absolute peak. Your language is predictably ludicrous.
 

So the question is, if the goal is to get the numbers down.. to what end? There is no track and trace system close to being viable that will pin point every single outbreak. 
 

So the answer I’m assuming is to stop as few people getting the disease before we get a vaccine? How long is that? What if there isn’t one? What then?

I still feel like there is an assumption going around that the virus is going away. But it isn’t. We are stuck with it forever now. 

[BigFatCoward]

47 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Speaking from an American perspective, you may overestimate the effect that many deaths would have on the seriousness levels of fucking idiots.

From a non American point of view, you may underestimate how much stupider your stupid people are, compared to regular run of the mill stupid. 

[BigFatCoward]

Gym owner hit with 1 grand fine for staying open in liverpool, maybe he shouldn't have been all over social media telling everyone he planned to do it. 

[DanteGabriel]

19 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

From a non American point of view, you may underestimate how much stupider your stupid people are, compared to regular run of the mill stupid. 

It's very possible. The British have done a bangup job concentrating their exceptionally stupid people in the upper branches of government.

[maarsen]

40 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

It's very possible. The British have done a bangup job concentrating their exceptionally stupid people in the upper branches of government.

 

[DaveSumm]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

There is no evidence any of that would happen which is exactly my point. The NHS never came close to breaking, nowhere near, and that was at its absolute peak.

It didn’t. Due to the lockdown we had.

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

So the question is, if the goal is to get the numbers down.. to what end? There is no track and trace system close to being viable that will pin point every single outbreak. 

I half agree with you I think, that higher numbers aren’t inherently the problem. I think the goal would be to find the perfect cruising speed to keep the R at 1 (even with the numbers we have now, so long as they don’t overwhelm the NHS), in some sort of combination which allows for maximum opening of the economy. It feels like we could possibly be circling a solution there, but what absolutely can’t happen is exponential growth. That has been a real danger these last few weeks, that we don’t have a handle on the figures.

[Heartofice]

5 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

It didn’t. Due to the lockdown we had.

I half agree with you I think, that higher numbers aren’t inherently the problem. I think the goal would be to find the perfect cruising speed to keep the R at 1 (even with the numbers we have now, so long as they don’t overwhelm the NHS), in some sort of combination which allows for maximum opening of the economy. It feels like we could possibly be circling a solution there, but what absolutely can’t happen is exponential growth. That has been a real danger these last few weeks, that we don’t have a handle on the figures.

Yeah I think the point is what the lockdowns are to prevent exponential growth. Thing is I don’t see why that would happen.
 

If we take into account that most people are actually social distancing etc, and that the vulnerable are shielded then it really doesn’t seem likely that the numbers would even get close to what we had in March when no measures had been taken. 

[williamjm]

5 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

I half agree with you I think, that higher numbers aren’t inherently the problem. I think the goal would be to find the perfect cruising speed to keep the R at 1 (even with the numbers we have now, so long as they don’t overwhelm the NHS), in some sort of combination which allows for maximum opening of the economy. It feels like we could possibly be circling a solution there, but what absolutely can’t happen is exponential growth. That has been a real danger these last few weeks, that we don’t have a handle on the figures.

I think at the moment I'd be content with the situation that we've seen in the likes of South Korea or Japan where they've never gotten close to eradicating the virus and have had a few peaks in their outbreaks and will probably have more in the future but they've never had a high death rate at any point. They have introduced various restrictions at times but not to the same extent that European countries have. It's frustrating that other countries haven't managed to learn to do the same.

Of course, it would be even better to be like Taiwan or New Zealand and have almost no cases in the community, but I think that's even more difficult to achieve.

[JoannaL]

36 minutes ago, williamjm said:

I think at the moment I'd be content with the situation that we've seen in the likes of South Korea or Japan where they've never gotten close to eradicating the virus and have had a few peaks in their outbreaks and will probably have more in the future but they've never had a high death rate at any point. They have introduced various restrictions at times but not to the same extent that European countries have. It's frustrating that other countries haven't managed to learn to do the same.

Of course, it would be even better to be like Taiwan or New Zealand and have almost no cases in the community, but I think that's even more difficult to achieve.

Taiwan and New Zealand are islands. We Europeans can not go that way of isolation.

But with the onset of fall we see that our rules so far don't work any longer. A lot of scientists predicted this - coronaviruses being the  viruses also of the common cold which is generally coming back every October and stays with us till March/April. So to achieve a balanced R value of 1 again we now have to tighten the rules. How far is the question. But there is no question that this needs to be done really very very fast to not loose control again. The higher the number of daily infections is  when (if ) R is balanced again will decide how many people will die.

[lessthanluke]

3 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Gym owner hit with 1 grand fine for staying open in liverpool, maybe he shouldn't have been all over social media telling everyone he planned to do it. 

He's raised 35k in a day on GoFundMe so there's that. I gave money to him. 

There are currenly 70 gyms in the Merseyside area that are staying open so not just him. 

[Chaircat Meow]

3 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Gym owner hit with 1 grand fine for staying open in liverpool, maybe he shouldn't have been all over social media telling everyone he planned to do it. 

It is a shame we can't retrospectively fine Margaret Ferrier. 

[HexMachina]

9 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

From a non American point of view, you may underestimate how much stupider your stupid people are, compared to regular run of the mill stupid. 

 

9 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Gym owner hit with 1 grand fine for staying open in liverpool, maybe he shouldn't have been all over social media telling everyone he planned to do it. 

The irony of these posts one after the other

[BigFatCoward]

6 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

 

The irony of these posts one after the other

Well quite. 

[BigFatCoward]

13 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

He's raised 35k in a day on GoFundMe so there's that. I gave money to him. 

There are currenly 70 gyms in the Merseyside area that are staying open so not just him. 

Yeah but by the week he could be up to 70 grand in fines. and go fund me isnt going to bail all of those other gym owners out.  It's absolutely shit when you consider risk compared to impact for small business owners like this. 

[broken one]

14 hours ago, williamjm said:

I think at the moment I'd be content with the situation that we've seen in the likes of South Korea or Japan where they've never gotten close to eradicating the virus and have had a few peaks in their outbreaks and will probably have more in the future but they've never had a high death rate at any point. They have introduced various restrictions at times but not to the same extent that European countries have. It's frustrating that other countries haven't managed to learn to do the same.

Of course, it would be even better to be like Taiwan or New Zealand and have almost no cases in the community, but I think that's even more difficult to achieve.

maybe it is question of people's attitude, sort of discipline which is absent in , for example, eastern europe. everyone over here is a cowboy, a cossack, a prince in his castle...

[Heartofice]

You have to really worry about compliance this time around. First wave most people were totally on board with the message. Now the rules don't really make any sense, that will probably be ineffective, it's going to cause an inevitable backlash. I'm sure a lot of people will be supporting this Gym owner, and the more he gets hit with fines, the more public annoyance there will be.

[lessthanluke]

21 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Yeah but by the week he could be up to 70 grand in fines. and go fund me isnt going to bail all of those other gym owners out.  It's absolutely shit when you consider risk compared to impact for small business owners like this. 

Well if he closes he'll lose his business anyway so not like he has much choice really. 

[Luzifer's right hand]

15 hours ago, JoannaL said:

Taiwan and New Zealand are islands. We Europeans can not go that way of isolation.

But with the onset of fall we see that our rules so far don't work any longer. A lot of scientists predicted this - coronaviruses being the  viruses also of the common cold which is generally coming back every October and stays with us till March/April. So to achieve a balanced R value of 1 again we now have to tighten the rules. How far is the question. But there is no question that this needs to be done really very very fast to not loose control again. The higher the number of daily infections is  when (if ) R is balanced again will decide how many people will die.

The UK is an island too I believe.  Scale up should not be a problem.

Taiwan has 4,8 times the population of New Zealand and both made it work pretty well.

The UK only has 2,9 times the population of Taiwan. It is a culture problem not a problem of feasibility imo. 

[Loge]

48 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

The UK is an island too I believe.  Scale up should not be a problem.

Not really. First, there's Northern Ireland. Then there's Heathrow airpot, which is a big international travel hub. And then there's a lot of cargo crossing the Channel. And let's not forget the tunnel. They'd have a hard time keeping their borders shut.

[Luzifer's right hand]

6 minutes ago, Loge said:

Not really. First, there's Northern Ireland. Then there's Heathrow airpot, which is a big international travel hub. And then there's a lot of cargo crossing the Channel. And let's not forget the tunnel. They'd have a hard time keeping their borders shut.

How are airports and the tunnel difficult to close or control? Northern Ireland is difficult I admit but you can keep the main island safe. Although they should have plans to close the Irish border because of Brexit anyway.