Rhaegar's Plot Against his Father - What was his Plan Exactly??

[Canon Claude]

It's pretty clear that Rhaegar was the one who made sure that the great tourney at Harrenhal happened, and the tourney was prestigious enough to draw most of the Seven Kingdoms' nobility. It hasn't been said outright, but it's been implied pretty heavily that there was an ulterior motive to get these people together; Rhaegar wanted to hold a great council to decide what to do about Aerys the Mad King. Assuming that Rhaegar was planning to remove his insane father from power, what exactly was his plan going to be? 

It's not like Aerys was a very old man; he wasn't even forty at the time. He could be expected to live a decent few more decades, especially given how paranoid he was about staying alive. It's not like he would willingly abdicate either. He would have to be removed from his title by force. 

Now, I'm also assuming that Rhaegar wasn't planning on having his father killed; even if he was that bloodthirsty and ruthless, no great council would support such an action. But what would they have approved? It's not like he had any precedent for supplanting his father. That kind of thing was simply unheard of and would have resulted in Aerys ordering his son to be killed for treason. Not even the Faith would have protested against a king condemning his rebellious son to death. Nobody cared when the Targaryens became kinslayers during the Dance of the Dragons or the Blackfyre Rebellions. Rhaegar would have lost his life. 

What was Rhaegar hoping would happen? And would the nobles have gone along with it?

[Curled Finger]

59 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

It's pretty clear that Rhaegar was the one who made sure that the great tourney at Harrenhal happened, and the tourney was prestigious enough to draw most of the Seven Kingdoms' nobility. It hasn't been said outright, but it's been implied pretty heavily that there was an ulterior motive to get these people together; Rhaegar wanted to hold a great council to decide what to do about Aerys the Mad King. Assuming that Rhaegar was planning to remove his insane father from power, what exactly was his plan going to be? 

It's not like Aerys was a very old man; he wasn't even forty at the time. He could be expected to live a decent few more decades, especially given how paranoid he was about staying alive. It's not like he would willingly abdicate either. He would have to be removed from his title by force. 

Now, I'm also assuming that Rhaegar wasn't planning on having his father killed; even if he was that bloodthirsty and ruthless, no great council would support such an action. But what would they have approved? It's not like he had any precedent for supplanting his father. That kind of thing was simply unheard of and would have resulted in Aerys ordering his son to be killed for treason. Not even the Faith would have protested against a king condemning his rebellious son to death. Nobody cared when the Targaryens became kinslayers during the Dance of the Dragons or the Blackfyre Rebellions. Rhaegar would have lost his life. 

What was Rhaegar hoping would happen? And would the nobles have gone along with it?

Like you, I'm pretty much sold on Rhaegar being the force behind making Harrenhal happen.  There was a Harrenhal conversation a couple of years ago that had me convinced Ashara Dayne was passing messages, maybe spying, during all those dances.  Rhaegar had help.  If I was a prince in a miserable situation like deposing my dad and fixing all the troubles of the realm, I would use all the beautiful women I could to glean intel.  Another glaring curious deal with this tourney was Aerys was the only dad who showed up.  No Hoster or Rickard or Jon Arryn or most conspicuously, no Tywin.  Interesting that given even the Nights Watch had a representative there.  Who lets teenagers have a week long party without adult supervision?  We know Hoster and Rickard and Tywin were actively shopping marriages for the kids.  Something is off here.  

So yah, Rhaegar was up to something.  I think that something was to gain support or at least feel the company out for those who might be supportive of a compassionate forced retirement for Aerys.  I can't imagine that a great council just happens at the drop of a pin.  It would take planning.  With most of the realm represented it would have been a great time to at least cozy up to Robert Baratheon, maybe Mace Tyrell since they didn't need daddy's OK on things.  Maybe it wasn't even a matter of cozying up, but getting dirt on them.   I don't know, but I do think he was putting feelers out for the general consensus about Aerys and see if there was support for a great council.  He said as much to Jamie later, when he left King's Landing.  

We know Rhaegar was a different sort of Targaryen.  He was beloved by those who knew him--even Ned has no bad words for Rhaegar.  Harrenhal could have been the gauge for his popularity.  Whatever it was, Harrenhal was the start of if.  Under normal circumstances say a bad uncle like Maegor usurping the throne is maybe expected, but he had a dragon.  Hell to pay all the way around.  Aerys and Rhaegar didn't have dragons.  Best I can remember, there were no other Targ sons trying to oust their dad.   This would have been sticky.  Supposing Rhaegar was all he is talked up to be, there is no telling what support a beloved prince would gain in a popular effort to take power from the bad king dad.  

The only way it could have worked is with the noble's support.  That Rhaegar didn't reach out to Tywin 1st before ever even imagining a mixer tourney is a missed opportunity and quite a bad move in my humble opinion.  

 

[Floki of the Ironborn]

Well, it's a complicated situation.

We know that the Reach and Dorne remained loyal to the Iron Throne during Robert's Rebellion, and neither of them were involved in the big marriage fest that was going on between those other regions (not for lack of trying, of course). If it was Rhaegar vs. Aerys, I'm pretty sure that Dorne would support Rhaegar. He was the one married to Elia, after all. The Reach might have stayed loyal to Aerys, though, as Rhaegar was setting a dangerous precedent.

The Stormlands might have proved a problem if Steffon had still been alive, since he seemed determinedly loyal to Aerys. Robert wouldn't appreciate the guy who sent his parents on that fatal mission, and as long as Rhaegar keeps it in his pants around Lyanna, Robert will be a useful ally.

That pants comment also applies to Dorne, the North, and the Vale of course. I don't think Rhaegar would be able to suggest that she be his second wife. That would offend three or all four of those regions and completely derail the plan. It would just dissolve into a full on rebellion against the entirety of House Targaryen, and maybe this time, Dorne joins in the fight with the rebels to avenge Elia's honour (assuming that she and her kids can flee to Dorne this time anyway). 

The Riverlands are a cautious bunch, not quick to jump into a war that's not affecting them directly, or else picking both sides in a big free for all because House Tully is paradoxically weak within their strength. Hoster was linking himself to the North, so he would presumably follow their lead. It helps that the Riverlands is the closest thing to a first men-prominent region of Westeros south of the Neck.

The crownlands will, of course, fall in line with Aerys, but they have the least amount of troops of any region. They will not be the deciding factor. 

The real wild cards are the Iron Islands (for obvious reasons) and the Westerlands. Tywin had plenty of reasons to dislike Aerys, but on the other hand, he has no reason to like Rhaegar. My guess is that he'd sit on his arse  next to Quellon Greyjoy and wait for the winner to emerge. And speaking of Quellon, he wasn't as invested in the conflict but his sons were opportunists, and they managed to persuade him to lead an expedition. And this time Quellon might not be fighting in the Reach, maybe he'd be sailing to King's Landing and cripple the Royal Fleet for the rebels if necessary? Who knows what would have changed if Quellon had survived Robert's Rebellion. Maybe he doesn't like the idea of one, two, three, or even any of his sons replacing him? There's other Greyjoys, he could decide that a cousin should be favoured so that Quellon's work isn't completely in vain? All that effort to turn the Iron Islands away from the old ways? Maybe another civil war instead of a pointless move for independence? Who knows. 

But to the point, Rhaegar basically has the power to make or break the entire plan, depending on what he decides is more important. And since he's probably the biggest fathead in the history of House Targaryen, and that's saying a lot, he still thought taking Lyanna, whether by will or by force, to produce a third head for some non-existing dragon is better than having a grand alliance of Dorne, the North, the Riverlands, the Stormlands, the Vale, and maybe the Reach if Mace Tyrell isn't busy being the biggest fathead in the Reach. If GRRM reveals that Rhaegar threw all that away to fulfill some mumbo-jumbo promised prince nonsense? And I really hope that the PTWP is something that matters because otherwise, if there IS no real payoff for the PTWP, that makes Rhaegar (and possibly Lyanna Stark) as the worst person of this entire book series. All that for nothing? Lyanna's father and brother, Rhaegar's whole family, a sequence of events which leads to all the stuff that's torn at our hearts ever since we first read these books? Look how worked up we get on this site. All that anguish is thanks to two absolute lovesick egotists who don't care about anything except fulfilling an empty promise that doesn't matter at all. It's the reason why I will always call them the Unspeakables. That is the biggest slap in the face we have ever felt and would ever feel all over again if that's how the book series also goes.

[Canon Claude]

3 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Well, it's a complicated situation.

We know that the Reach and Dorne remained loyal to the Iron Throne during Robert's Rebellion, and neither of them were involved in the big marriage fest that was going on between those other regions (not for lack of trying, of course). If it was Rhaegar vs. Aerys, I'm pretty sure that Dorne would support Rhaegar. He was the one married to Elia, after all. The Reach might have stayed loyal to Aerys, though, as Rhaegar was setting a dangerous precedent.

The Stormlands might have proved a problem if Steffon had still been alive, since he seemed determinedly loyal to Aerys. Robert wouldn't appreciate the guy who sent his parents on that fatal mission, and as long as Rhaegar keeps it in his pants around Lyanna, Robert will be a useful ally.

That pants comment also applies to Dorne, the North, and the Vale of course. I don't think Rhaegar would be able to suggest that she be his second wife. That would offend three or all four of those regions and completely derail the plan. It would just dissolve into a full on rebellion against the entirety of House Targaryen, and maybe this time, Dorne joins in the fight with the rebels to avenge Elia's honour (assuming that she and her kids can flee to Dorne this time anyway). 

The Riverlands are a cautious bunch, not quick to jump into a war that's not affecting them directly, or else picking both sides in a big free for all because House Tully is paradoxically weak within their strength. Hoster was linking himself to the North, so he would presumably follow their lead. It helps that the Riverlands is the closest thing to a first men-prominent region of Westeros south of the Neck.

The crownlands will, of course, fall in line with Aerys, but they have the least amount of troops of any region. They will not be the deciding factor. 

The real wild cards are the Iron Islands (for obvious reasons) and the Westerlands. Tywin had plenty of reasons to dislike Aerys, but on the other hand, he has no reason to like Rhaegar. My guess is that he'd sit on his arse  next to Quellon Greyjoy and wait for the winner to emerge. And speaking of Quellon, he wasn't as invested in the conflict but his sons were opportunists, and they managed to persuade him to lead an expedition. And this time Quellon might not be fighting in the Reach, maybe he'd be sailing to King's Landing and cripple the Royal Fleet for the rebels if necessary? Who knows what would have changed if Quellon had survived Robert's Rebellion. Maybe he doesn't like the idea of one, two, three, or even any of his sons replacing him? There's other Greyjoys, he could decide that a cousin should be favoured so that Quellon's work isn't completely in vain? All that effort to turn the Iron Islands away from the old ways? Maybe another civil war instead of a pointless move for independence? Who knows. 

But to the point, Rhaegar basically has the power to make or break the entire plan, depending on what he decides is more important. And since he's probably the biggest fathead in the history of House Targaryen, and that's saying a lot, he still thought taking Lyanna, whether by will or by force, to produce a third head for some non-existing dragon is better than having a grand alliance of Dorne, the North, the Riverlands, the Stormlands, the Vale, and maybe the Reach if Mace Tyrell isn't busy being the biggest fathead in the Reach. If GRRM reveals that Rhaegar threw all that away to fulfill some mumbo-jumbo promised prince nonsense? And I really hope that the PTWP is something that matters because otherwise, if there IS no real payoff for the PTWP, that makes Rhaegar (and possibly Lyanna Stark) as the worst person of this entire book series. All that for nothing? Lyanna's father and brother, Rhaegar's whole family, a sequence of events which leads to all the stuff that's torn at our hearts ever since we first read these books? Look how worked up we get on this site. All that anguish is thanks to two absolute lovesick egotists who don't care about anything except fulfilling an empty promise that doesn't matter at all. It's the reason why I will always call them the Unspeakables. That is the biggest slap in the face we have ever felt and would ever feel all over again if that's how the book series also goes.

Wow... that took a turn. Really touches on a lot of bitter feelings I've been holding onto. But focusing on canon, it does make sense that Rhaegar would never be able to talk his way out of taking Lyanna as a paramour or as a second wife. Either option has a good chance of triggering Robert's Rebellion at Harrenhal. So that means he was always planning on eloping with Lyanna, even before Varys ruined everything. Rhaegar was doomed to shoot himself in both feet no matter if he was honest or dishonest about beginning a relationship with Lyanna. And as bad as that is, it's still better than the idea that he really did abduct Lyanna against her will. 

But you're being way too harsh on Lyanna Stark. She was a teenager. She was probably a bit more like Sansa than people would want to admit. She fell for the handsome prince with the voice of an angel. Sansa Stark fell for Loras Tyrell, imagine if he could also sing? She'd have wept too. And no, I don't hate Sansa either; she's clearly an underage girl who was a victim of abuse. That's not someone I feel that I could hold fully responsible with those actions. Lyanna was a victim. I can't hate her for being swept up in some teenage love story with a literal Prince Charming. Of course she wasn't mature enough for that situation. Last I checked, we shouldn't shame 15-year-olds if a 24-year-old married father has sex with her. One of those people should have known better in almost any and all such situations.

[John Suburbs]

13 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

It's pretty clear that Rhaegar was the one who made sure that the great tourney at Harrenhal happened, and the tourney was prestigious enough to draw most of the Seven Kingdoms' nobility. It hasn't been said outright, but it's been implied pretty heavily that there was an ulterior motive to get these people together; Rhaegar wanted to hold a great council to decide what to do about Aerys the Mad King. Assuming that Rhaegar was planning to remove his insane father from power, what exactly was his plan going to be? 

It's not like Aerys was a very old man; he wasn't even forty at the time. He could be expected to live a decent few more decades, especially given how paranoid he was about staying alive. It's not like he would willingly abdicate either. He would have to be removed from his title by force. 

Now, I'm also assuming that Rhaegar wasn't planning on having his father killed; even if he was that bloodthirsty and ruthless, no great council would support such an action. But what would they have approved? It's not like he had any precedent for supplanting his father. That kind of thing was simply unheard of and would have resulted in Aerys ordering his son to be killed for treason. Not even the Faith would have protested against a king condemning his rebellious son to death. Nobody cared when the Targaryens became kinslayers during the Dance of the Dragons or the Blackfyre Rebellions. Rhaegar would have lost his life. 

What was Rhaegar hoping would happen? And would the nobles have gone along with it?

All kings rule by the sufferance of their lords. So my guess is that the tourney was probably intended to gauge the high lords' feelings about deposing Aerys and putting Rhaegar on the throne. Ideally, this would all be done peacefully -- either by getting an overwhelming number of lords to go along with it or at least a majority who could do it quickly before loyalists could call their banners.

As for killing Aerys, kinslaying only applies if the kin takes part in the slaying. If the lords take it upon themselves to remove Aerys permanently after he is taken into custody, and perhaps make it look like a suicide . . . 

[James Steller]

The whole thing seems really harebrained to me. Rhaegar was risking a lot by doing this. He didn’t just approach people face to face. He just tried to bring everyone over so he could maximize the chances of being betrayed. Imagine if he had all the lords around him, he starts talking about his intentions, and someone stands up and declares him guilty of treason. He’d be right, too, and he’d be duty bound to go tell Aerys right away, or even arrest Rhaegar on the spot. And then Rhaegar’s supporters would have to decide if they were going to kill or apprehend the loyalist. Killing someone at a great council is one of the least honourable actions that happens in this world. Yet it seems like Rhaegar, assuming this is how it went down, was putting a line of powder kegs in a circle around him and throwing out lit torches while blindfolded. You don’t discuss it extreme actions like that with so many witnesses if you’re serious about covering your back.

[John Suburbs]

10 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

 

But to the point, Rhaegar basically has the power to make or break the entire plan, depending on what he decides is more important. And since he's probably the biggest fathead in the history of House Targaryen, and that's saying a lot, he still thought taking Lyanna, whether by will or by force, to produce a third head for some non-existing dragon is better than having a grand alliance of Dorne, the North, the Riverlands, the Stormlands, the Vale, and maybe the Reach if Mace Tyrell isn't busy being the biggest fathead in the Reach. If GRRM reveals that Rhaegar threw all that away to fulfill some mumbo-jumbo promised prince nonsense? And I really hope that the PTWP is something that matters because otherwise, if there IS no real payoff for the PTWP, that makes Rhaegar (and possibly Lyanna Stark) as the worst person of this entire book series. All that for nothing? Lyanna's father and brother, Rhaegar's whole family, a sequence of events which leads to all the stuff that's torn at our hearts ever since we first read these books? Look how worked up we get on this site. All that anguish is thanks to two absolute lovesick egotists who don't care about anything except fulfilling an empty promise that doesn't matter at all. It's the reason why I will always call them the Unspeakables. That is the biggest slap in the face we have ever felt and would ever feel all over again if that's how the book series also goes.

I have a sneaking suspicion that we will find out that Rhaegar was not the driver of events behind Lyanna's disappearance. I think two possibilities still exist:

Lyanna learned all about the Song of Ice and Fire from Howland Reed, who got it directly from the Green Men, and that it was vital to produce a hero who has both ice (Stark, descended from Others) blood as well as fire (Targ, descended from dragons) in his veins, and this hero would save mankind from the threat that even then was stirring in the far north. It was Lyanna who compelled Rhaegar to run away, not the other way around -- and none of it was done for love; or,

The Mad King had both Rhaegar and Lyanna taken separately and then put out the story that Rhaegar was a mad kidnapper/rapist. They were never together during Lyanna's disappearance, Rhaegar is not Jon's father -- it was all a mad plot by a mad king who saw it as a way to rid himself of two of his enemies while at the same time disrupting the marriages that would have allied the great houses against him.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

38 minutes ago, James Steller said:

The whole thing seems really harebrained to me. Rhaegar was risking a lot by doing this. He didn’t just approach people face to face. He just tried to bring everyone over so he could maximize the chances of being betrayed. Imagine if he had all the lords around him, he starts talking about his intentions, and someone stands up and declares him guilty of treason. He’d be right, too, and he’d be duty bound to go tell Aerys right away, or even arrest Rhaegar on the spot. And then Rhaegar’s supporters would have to decide if they were going to kill or apprehend the loyalist. Killing someone at a great council is one of the least honourable actions that happens in this world. Yet it seems like Rhaegar, like the fool that he is, was putting a line of powder kegs in a circle around him and throwing out lit torches while blindfolded. You don’t discuss it extreme actions like that with so many witnesses if you’re serious about covering your back.

Same. Which is why I think the tourney was designed to get Aerys out of the Red Keep for the world to see. Aerys had not left the Red Keep since the Defiance of Duskendale. If his appearance and behavior are anything like what the World Book described, then it would have been shocking for the lords and smallfolk alike to see the king in that state. Meanwhile, Rhaegar, the king-in-waiting is very sane, looks the opposite of his father, enters the joust, shows some martial prowess.

It sort of reminds of Jon's first chapter in AGoT, when he sees Robert for the first time and how he thinks the king was a great disappointment. He looks nothing like what Jon anticipated him to look like. He was fat, his face was red because he was drunk and so on. Then he sees Jaime and he thinks that that's what a king should look like (I'm also well aware that this was meant for an earlier idea that GRRM had about Jaime's character).

How many people at the tourney looked at Aerys, then looked at Rhaegar and thought the exact same thing that Jon thought of Robert?

If Rhaegar decides to take his father in hand and call a great council to depose him or name a regent, then those who were at the tourney would probably see the sense in that. That's not to mention all the stories that would have spread across the realm like wildfire. Tywin doesn't need to know what Aerys looks like or how he behaves, he already knows. But Jon Arryn and Mace Tyrell and Robert Baratheon and the Stark children may only have heard stories. But now they get to see.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

10 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

But you're being way too harsh on Lyanna Stark. She was a teenager. She was probably a bit more like Sansa than people would want to admit. She fell for the handsome prince with the voice of an angel. Sansa Stark fell for Loras Tyrell, imagine if he could also sing? She'd have wept too. And no, I don't hate Sansa either; she's clearly an underage girl who was a victim of abuse. That's not someone I feel that I could hold fully responsible with those actions. Lyanna was a victim. I can't hate her for being swept up in some teenage love story with a literal Prince Charming. Of course she wasn't mature enough for that situation. Last I checked, we shouldn't shame 15-year-olds if a 24-year-old married father has sex with her. One of those people should have known better in almost any and all such situations.

That's a fair point. I retract what I said about her. And that honestly makes me hate Rhaegar even more.

2 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Same. Which is why I think the tourney was designed to get Aerys out of the Red Keep for the world to see. Aerys had not left the Red Keep since the Defiance of Duskendale. If his appearance and behavior are anything like what the World Book described, then it would have been shocking for the lords and smallfolk alike to see the king in that state. Meanwhile, Rhaegar, the king-in-waiting is very sane, looks the opposite of his father, enters the joust, shows some martial prowess.

It sort of reminds of Jon's first chapter in AGoT, when he sees Robert for the first time and how he thinks the king was a great disappointment. He looks nothing like what Jon anticipated him to look like. He was fat, his face was red because he was drunk and so on. Then he sees Jaime and he thinks that that's what a king should look like (I'm also well aware that this was meant for an earlier idea that GRRM had about Jaime's character).

How many people at the tourney looked at Aerys, then looked at Rhaegar and thought the exact same thing that Jon thought of Robert?

If Rhaegar decides to take his father in hand and call a great council to depose him or name a regent, then those who were at the tourney would probably see the sense in that. That's not to mention all the stories that would have spread across the realm like wildfire. Tywin doesn't need to know what Aerys looks like or how he behaves, he already knows. But Jon Arryn and Mace Tyrell and Robert Baratheon and the Stark children may only have heard stories. But now they get to see.

Which makes Rhaegar's subsequent (alleged) actions regarding Lyanna even more infuriating. It just reeks of impulsivity, disregard for consequences, and a deliberate tanking of everything he was working towards before that. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

2 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Which makes Rhaegar's subsequent (alleged) actions regarding Lyanna even more infuriating. It just reeks of impulsivity, disregard for consequences, and a deliberate tanking of everything he was working towards before that. 

I think it depends what story you buy into at the end of the day. If you think he kidnapped or ran off with Lyanna, then yes, he's 100% stupid. If you think he was rescuing her from his father (which is what I think happened), because he found out that she was the KotLT, then his actions are not so stupid. 

[Floki of the Ironborn]

Just now, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I think it depends what story you buy into at the end of the day. If you think he kidnapped or ran off with Lyanna, then yes, he's 100% stupid. If you think he was rescuing her from his father (which is what I think happened), because he found out that she was the KotLT, then his actions are not so stupid. 

That's assuming she WAS the KotLT, which we don't know yet. I think there's merit to the argument that it was Ned, given that Howland was so loyal to him all those years. 

But saving someone doesn't mean that you whisk them away to Dorne, live with them for a year while the world is on fire, and then whisper her name when you're dying. That feels more like something reckless, motivated by passion. It's one of GRRM's biggest messages across the series; love is the death of duty, and how many people died because Rhaegar chose that impossible love?

[Lord Lannister]

1) Call all the lords of Westeros to Harrenhall under the pretense of a tournament.

2) ???

3) Profit

[Floki of the Ironborn]

8 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

1) Call all the lords of Westeros to Harrenhall under the pretense of a tournament.

2) ???

3) Profit

It baffles me that Rhaegar is so liked so many readers. All those people who give Jon Snow shit for abandoning his duties? I say it's the biggest indication that he's Rhaegar's son. Much as I do like Jon Snow, he's got more than one of Rhaegar's worst personality treats, no matter how much he got from his foster father. 

[Megorova]

If someone indeed was plotting something at Harrenhal, then it was Varys, not Rhaegar. Varys, who is a Blackfyre, wanted to clash Aerys against Rhaegar, to set up Rhaegar, that supposedly he plotted to usurp his father's cown. He wanted to cause a civil war at 7K, and after the end of it, no matter who would have won, either Aerys or Rhaegar, 7K's troops would have been weakened. And then Golden Company would have attacked Westeros. Varys planned to accuse Rhaegar, that Rhaegar supposedly conspired with attendants of Harrenhal's Tournament to overthrow Aerys. Unfortunately for Varys shortly after the Tournament Rhaegar left and no one knew for many months where he was. Thus it would have been hard for Varys to pretend that whatever is someone doing behind Aerys' back is done by Rhaegar or his people, because Rhaegar wasn't even there. And without knowing where he was, Varys was unable to lure Rhaegar into his plotting. Then Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, and Robert's Rebellion happened. After it, even though Targaryen regime had fallen, 7K were more united than ever, with all those political marriages. The North/Ned + Riverlands/Cat, the Vale/Jon Arryn + Riverlands/Lysa; The North, Stormlands, and the Vale were united thru friendship between Jon, Ned and Robert; Stormlands/Robert + Westerlands/Cersei; 5 out of 7 Kingdoms were supporting Robert Baratheon after the war ended, and if 7K would have been under attack of the outside forces, like Golden Company, then they all would have fought for Robert, thus GC had no chances of winning. Thus the Invasion of Blackfyres became indefinitely postponed.

A lot of those people that were supposedly Rhaegar's friends and supporters were actually working for Varys. Most likely, House Whent were Varys' agents.

[FictionIsntReal]

21 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Nobody cared when the Targaryens became kinslayers during the Dance of the Dragons

It's stated to be a big deal when Aemond became known as a kinslayer, even if Aegon II was fine with it. And that led to the Blacks retaliating via Blood & Cheese, and the bar for acceptable behavior getting continually lowered.

18 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Tywin had plenty of reasons to dislike Aerys, but on the other hand, he has no reason to like Rhaegar

Tywin had made clear his preference for Rhaegar taking Aerys' place during the Defiance of Duskendale.

Quote

that makes Rhaegar (and possibly Lyanna Stark) as the worst person of this entire book series

I really dislike Rhaegar, but this series has so many terrible people that he can't really compete. Littlefinger deliberately causes civil war, while Rhaegar foolishly sparks one unintentionally.

17 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

even before Varys ruined everything

What is the evidence that Varys did anything relevant at all to this?

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lyanna learned all about the Song of Ice and Fire from Howland Reed, who got it directly from the Green Men

We know Rhaegar was acting according to prophecy even from an early age, and his own birth was the result of his parents & grandparents acting on a prophecy. We don't hear of Howland acting according to any prophecy. Lyanna just happens to observe him getting beat up, he didn't seek her out.

Quote

it was all a mad plot by a mad king who saw it as a way to rid himself of two of his enemies

Two of his enemies? Even if he believed Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree (rather than Jaime, defying Aerys' order), she wouldn't be comparable to Rhaegar because she hadn't actually done anything to oppose Aerys and wasn't a rival ready to displace.

6 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

If you think he was rescuing her from his father (which is what I think happened), because he found out that she was the KotLT, then his actions are not so stupid. 

Lyanna wasn't in Aerys' clutches. The tourney of Harrenhal had ended and Aerys was back in KL. Lyanna was only in the Riverlands for Brandon's wedding.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

He wanted to cause a civil war at 7K, and after the end of it, no matter who would have won, either Aerys or Rhaegar, 7K's troops would have been weakened. And then Golden Company would have attacked Westeros.

There WAS a civil war, but the GC didn't do anything.

Quote

Thus it would have been hard for Varys to pretend that whatever is someone doing behind Aerys' back is done by Rhaegar or his people, because Rhaegar wasn't even there.

On the contrary: if nobody knows where he is, he could be anywhere and doing anything. He wouldn't be able to defend himself againt any accusation from Varys, nor could his supporters do so if they don't even know what he's been up to.

Quote

After it, even though Targaryen regime had fallen, 7K were more united than ever

New regimes are typically less stable than old regimes (and Robert's does falter after his death). Legitimacy accrues with time, particularly in a feudal society where law is the product of custom rather than some sort of rationalized legislation. Balon was a complete idiot during the War of the Five Kings, but there was a grain of sense in thinking this new regime would be weaker than the Targaryens had been.

[Canon Claude]

30 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

 

What is the evidence that Varys did anything relevant at all to this?

 

Varys persuaded Aerys to go to the tourney to discourage any talk of treason. 

[Bronn Urgandy]

Rhaegar - “started plotting, had a breakdown, Bon apetit”

[Ivan Tsarevich]

18 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Then he sees Jaime and he thinks that that's what a king should look like (I'm also well aware that this was meant for an earlier idea that GRRM had about Jaime's character).

Seizing on this, I'd be interested if you cared to share the reasoning behind it. I'm aware of the 1993 outline, but besides what one can conclude from that and it's proximity to the time AGoT was first published, I know nothing that supports the position. So if you have something, could you please enlighten me?

[Seams]

We suspect that Rhaegar read something that led him to change his life - he became a warrior because (we suspect) he realized that he needed to fulfill the terms of a prophecy. Some comments by Maester Aemon support this interpretation of Rhaegar's actions, as well.

Shortly before the tournament at Harrenhal, Prince Viserys was born. Suddenly, there is an alternative heir to the throne.

Winning a tournament is a way that GRRM shows us that a character is going to be triumphant in some way, perhaps even becoming a kingmaker or king. (This idea came from @sweetsunray but I also found it to be true in analyzing the tourney in The Hedge Knight.)

Rhaegar may have realized that he needed to win a tournament in order to keep his place in line as the heir to the throne.

From a literary analysis perspective, Aerys may have been supportive of Rhaegar's action: he made sure that Jaime was taken out of play and he became bound and determined to capture the Knight of the Laughing Tree when that mystery knight became the clear frontrunner to win the jousting.

The KotLT disappears before the tourney is finished and Rhaegar is declared champion. But is he really?

What other aspects of the mysterious prophecy might Rhaegar have been trying to fulfill? This is a relatively new line of thinking for me, but I think he may have been trying to unite north and south through his marriage to Elia and his connection with Lyanna. Like Aegon having two wives, Rhaegar tried to create a balance for the realm by going first south and then going north. It's a sort of uroboros image and may be the reason that GRRM uses the word "southron" (which contains "north" spelled backwards) as one of his neologisms for the series. While his championship in the tourney may have been questionable, Rhaegar's presence at the tourney does seem to have been successful in connecting him with a northern paramour. He dies before he can become king, but he has high hopes for his descendants, hoping he has created the requisite three heads of the dragon.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I really dislike Rhaegar, but this series has so many terrible people that he can't really compete. Littlefinger deliberately causes civil war, while Rhaegar foolishly sparks one unintentionally.

It's different in Rhaegar's case. Most of the other terrible people - Ramsay, Gregor, Joffrey, Cersei - all clearly have some kind of mental disorder, some level of socio/psychopathy. Rhaegar, by all accounts, was a sane man of sound mind. The fact that Rhaegar clearly should have known better but still destroyed everything for the sake of a prophecy? I'm much more inclined to hate him for that. It just speaks to a level of colossal arrogance and irresponsibility, or just plain stupidity, both of which drive me crazy when I come across them in my real life. I don't come across many men like Gregor Clegane, by contrast. Or a Euron Greyjoy. People like that are more like fantasy trope villains than people who make your life miserable on a daily basis. I know a LOT of Rhaegars.