Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Canon Claude

Rhaegar's Plot Against his Father - What was his Plan Exactly??

Recommended Posts

On 10/17/2020 at 2:04 AM, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

I do think that either of them may have given Rhaegar some information that made him fill in a blank, and decided that Lyanna was somehow important to fulfilling the prophecy.

We know that post-Harrenhal Rhaegar was on-track (prophecy wise) with Elia when Aegon was born. He at that stage believed Aegon was the PtwP and there must be a third head of the dragon.
Probably shortly after that the maesters confirmed Elia's health could not sustain another pregnancy - that must have come as a shock. It may well have been the stimulus for the long trip he subsequently took off on which ended with the 'kidnap' of Lyanna. We know that trip 'ultimately' lead him 'back' to the Riverlands and Lyanna. Reasonable suggestions for 'stops' along the way on that trip include Summerhall (his regular muse) and High Heart (the GoHH prophesied related to the PtwP before - and HH is in the Riverlands, so 'ultimately...back to' would fit)...

I think its very likely that neither Lyanna nor anyone else was on his radar prophecy-wise at Harrenhal, and only after Elia was ruled out as the mother of the third head, did he start thinking of alternative options.

I think its likely he met Lyanna secretly at Harrenhal (Aerys instructed him to find the KotLT, and with the KotLT publicly telling his (her) opponents to teach their squires honour, it wouldn't take much quiet investigation for an intelligent man like Rhaegar to figure out the truth. 
I also think, despite the other political machinations potentially going on at Harrenhal, his choice of Lyanna as QoLaB was entirely about her actions as KotLT.  

On 10/17/2020 at 2:04 AM, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

I think part of it may have been that the mother mother of the PtwP was a warrior queen. A Nymeria of sorts. Elia was a descendant of Nymeria, so he may have assumed it was her first, but then Lyanna as the KotLT made him realise she might be the one. It's possible that Howland gave him a piece of information, that made him connect the dots, perhaps something about Lyanna's lineage, the Last Hero or the Night King.. who knows.. but I seriously doubt that Howland just told him or Lyanna the entire prophecy, or would've known the entire prophecy at all.

HR isn't necessary here though. We already know Rhaegar is a student of history and prophecy and familiar with the Song of Ice and Fire (which he believed was Aegon's). Its therefore extremely likely that he was aware of the Pact of Ice ad Fire (which the Targaryens had never held up their end of). 

I think if you throw in the unsealed Pact of Ice and Fire, the Song of Ice and Fire being relevant to the PtwP, Elia's inability to bear the third head of the dragon, Lyanna's performance of the KotLT, and Rhaegar's likely knowledge of that, you get a pretty clear pointer towards Rhaegar getting very very interested in Lyanna as the mother of either the third head or tPtwP. But probably only once Elia is ruled out and he needs to find a new mother, so he has to rethink his plan.
And yes, the warrior-queen mother may further contribute.
I just don't see the need for HR in this process.  He has the clues already, if he really thinks about them with fresh eyes.

On 10/17/2020 at 2:04 AM, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

This is quite interesting.. so if I understand correctly; the tourney took place while Elia was pregnant, but Rhaegar choose to crown Lyanna anyway, even though he still believed that Elia would be the mother of the PtwP. He then traveled back with Elia, saw his son, said he's the PtwP, and then went on to "kidnap" Lyanna, because Elia couldn't have more children..

Yes.

On 10/17/2020 at 2:04 AM, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

that seems like it would've taken a very long time,

It did. There are several months at least, possibly up to 6 months or so but likely 2-3 months, between Harrenhal and Aegon's birth and Rhaegar''s subsequent trip.
Then the trip itself is months long. Anywhere from 2-6, most likely in the 3-4 range. 
So we have 4-12 months for this to take, most likely around 5-7 months. 

This timing is carefully calculated (by others mostly) from a wide variety of factors including time 'forward' in Robert's rebellion and time 'backward' to the origins of Harrenhal well before the false spring even began.

On 10/17/2020 at 2:04 AM, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

and seems a bit off.. why crown Lyanna before he knew Elia wouldn't have more children? The crowning seems too significant to just be a compliment for being the KotLT.

The crowning has been made hugely significant in our eyes, due to subsequent events. But in itself, its not (it can be, but is not always, not in itself).
If Oswell Whent had won the tourney, he would have crowned his un-named niece (he was one of her 5 original champions). If Barristan the Bold had won, he thinks he would have crowned Ashara Dayne. Rhaegar won, and crowed Lyanna (IMO because of tKotLT) which was a shock because he, known to be dutiful and scandal-free, was expected to name his wife. But note that beyond the immediate reactions, nothing actually comes of this for months and months. We have heard no hint of any fallout or scandal or anything further (as yet at least) until probably 6 months later when a new 'event' changes everything. Instead we have Rhaegar returning home with Elia, still apparently on track with her, prophecy wise, and satisfied with that situation. The Starks etc, and everybody else, go on with their business. 
The only hint of scandal originating from Harrenhal appears to be the disgrace of Ashara Dayne, who looked to Stark. And the next we hear of her she's at home in Starfall a year and a half or more later, apparently grieving over a lost baby and maybe more, enough to suicide.

On 10/17/2020 at 2:04 AM, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Sure he could've fallen in love with her, but he comes across as a person too composed to do an irrational thing like that, just because he had a crush on a girl he just met.

The scene with Elia and Aegon is counter-indicative of Rhaegar 'falling in love' with Lyanna at Harrenhal.
Which is fine. Like you I think he comes across and is described by those who knew him as not at all the sort of person to pull a crazy stunt like that.

So likely, he didn't. And there are better alternative explanations anyway.

On 10/17/2020 at 2:04 AM, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

There needs to be enough truth for it to be captivated, and enough mystery and room for interpretation and confusion, to keep her and the reader guessing. We are meant to recognise those first visions, so that we'll break or heads about the mumbled mess that comes after them.

Well said, I agree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would Howland need to tell Jojen and Mirra about this? He told them the story of the KotLT, that's all they need to know.

Bran is acting lord of Winterfell, which is a pretty important place for when the Long Night comes. The Wall & the North will be the initial zone of defense against the Others, it would seem important for whoever's in charge to know about what's going to happen.

Quote

Why would he choose not to tell Ned? Maybe because of what the last Stark went and did when she learned the truth?

You're right, Ned would definitely run off to get knocked up by Rhaegar!

Quote

And it is probably an amalgam of the languages used by those who sing the song of ice and those who sing the song of fire

Where is there evidence that those separate songs exist?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, he did do something with the information: he told Lyanna. And since we don't know what the soiaf is or how complicated it is to explain, why would we assume if couldn't be done in one night, or even one hour. And who's to say it was explained in one night? Maybe it took a few.

But we don't know for sure if he told Lyanna anything. For all we know she just fell madly in love with Rhaegar. We can only make assumptions. My personal belief is that they told Howland something, which may just have been a small part of the prophecy, or they didn't tell him anything about the prophecy, but perhaps he just learned some random information that didn't seem connected to anything whatsoever. I do believe that Rhaegar got a piece of information, be it from Lyanna or Howland directly, and connected some dots of the prophecy that he couldn't connect before. But it's not something I, or anyone else for that matter, know. Presumably Howland learned something with the GM, but it may as well have been skills. 

Quote

Why would Howland need to tell Jojen and Mirra about this? He told them the story of the KotLT, that's all they need to know. Why would he choose not to tell Ned? Maybe because of what the last Stark went and did when she learned the truth? And who is to say that Howland "found out everything" from the Green Men? I can imagine they have a lot to tell considering they've been in existence since the Dawn Age -- probably more than can be relayed in two years.

I would assume he'd tell Ned whatever he told Lyanna, because it might give Ned some clues about where his sister was hanging out, and why she went there in the first place. Maybe not though, but he seemed to have become quite close with Ned during their journey, so I think there's a reasonable chance he'd open up to him. Besides, Ned wasn't going to run off with Rhaegar to make babies with him. But it's possible that Howland didn't know that he knew valuable information.

With everything I meant the full prophecy/song of Ice and fire, not the entire history of everything. I thought that was quite clear.

 

Quote

I'm sure the GM have an agenda, or more accurately, a purpose. Whatever it is, though, it stretches out over the eons and likely has global ramifications, like the return of the Long Night. So sure, I see no reason why the GM would divulge any more information to Howland that they felt they had to, nor is it clear that they knew exactly what Howland or Lyanna or anybody would do from this point on. And sorry, but I don't see how Howland is jeopardizing his own children in any of this. They're not even born yet.

You seem to be going out of your way to not understand what I'm saying. If Howland has learned exactly what the song of Ice and fire is, or means(which was what you were suggesting, although now you seem to have changed that opinion). Then he probably still remembers it in the current timeline. I'm the current timeline Jojen and Meera go to WF for a reason. To swear fealty, sure, but also because of Bran and a greendream Jojen has had. With that in mind, at the very least, Howland must understand that it is somehow connected the soiaf. That Jojen and Meera are connected to the soiaf. And if so, wouldn't it be the most sensible thing to say: "hey, before you go I have some potentially relevant information, that Bran may need to know." Jojen has been dreaming about his death for ages, wouldn't it at least be fair to give him a better understanding of where is death could fit into the bigger picture? I'm sure both Howland and Jojen already knew that it wouldn't be just a visit to WF and then back home. I think it's at least reasonable to assume, or guess if you prefer, that if Howland has some vital information about the soiaf, he would've told Jojen, and perhaps Meera as well. They may not have shared that information with Bran yet, but I think that if it was extensive information, they would've at least dropped some hints during all this traveling chapters..

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

But we don't know for sure if he told Lyanna anything. For all we know she just fell madly in love with Rhaegar. We can only make assumptions. My personal belief is that they told Howland something, which may just have been a small part of the prophecy, or they didn't tell him anything about the prophecy, but perhaps he just learned some random information that didn't seem connected to anything whatsoever. I do believe that Rhaegar got a piece of information, be it from Lyanna or Howland directly, and connected some dots of the prophecy that he couldn't connect before. But it's not something I, or anyone else for that matter, know. Presumably Howland learned something with the GM, but it may as well have been skills. 

I would assume he'd tell Ned whatever he told Lyanna, because it might give Ned some clues about where his sister was hanging out, and why she went there in the first place. Maybe not though, but he seemed to have become quite close with Ned during their journey, so I think there's a reasonable chance he'd open up to him. Besides, Ned wasn't going to run off with Rhaegar to make babies with him. But it's possible that Howland didn't know that he knew valuable information.

With everything I meant the full prophecy/song of Ice and fire, not the entire history of everything. I thought that was quite clear.

 

You seem to be going out of your way to not understand what I'm saying. If Howland has learned exactly what the song of Ice and fire is, or means(which was what you were suggesting, although now you seem to have changed that opinion). Then he probably still remembers it in the current timeline. I'm the current timeline Jojen and Meera go to WF for a reason. To swear fealty, sure, but also because of Bran and a greendream Jojen has had. With that in mind, at the very least, Howland must understand that it is somehow connected the soiaf. That Jojen and Meera are connected to the soiaf. And if so, wouldn't it be the most sensible thing to say: "hey, before you go I have some potentially relevant information, that Bran may need to know." Jojen has been dreaming about his death for ages, wouldn't it at least be fair to give him a better understanding of where is death could fit into the bigger picture? I'm sure both Howland and Jojen already knew that it wouldn't be just a visit to WF and then back home. I think it's at least reasonable to assume, or guess if you prefer, that if Howland has some vital information about the soiaf, he would've told Jojen, and perhaps Meera as well. They may not have shared that information with Bran yet, but I think that if it was extensive information, they would've at least dropped some hints during all this traveling chapters..

 

Well of course we don't know for sure. If we knew for sure then we wouldn't even be discussing it. I am proposing that Howland told Lyanna what he learned on the IoF, and Lyanna then went and did what she did based on this information.

He spent two years with the GM. Whatever he learned, it was quite a bit. Whether it is everything that the GM know is doubtful, though. And however the chain of information worked out, the point is that it began with Howland and led to the events that sparked the war. It's really not that complicated.

How would telling Ned about the soaiof lead him to where Lyanna is being kept? I seriously doubt the song is that prescient and detailed. But I think it's safe to conclude that Ned did not know about it, so Howland did not tell him for whatever reason we are not privy to. I suspect Howland was just being cautious at this point, given what Lyanna did.

The full song of ice and fire might not be all that complicated: Others up north, the return of the Long Night, a hero with ice/fire blood who will save mankind. Certainly something that can be relayed in two years.

There are all kinds of reasons why Howland might not tell J&M the whole story, the primary one being that if they know the whole story (and how it will affect them), they might make decisions that could interfere with a successful conclusion. They know all they need to know at this point: get Bran to the three-eyed crow. After that, it's in the hands of the gods.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I am proposing that Howland told Lyanna what he learned on the IoF, and Lyanna then went and did what she did based on this information.

Quote

There are all kinds of reasons why Howland might not tell J&M the whole story, the primary one being that if they know the whole story (and how it will affect them), they might make decisions that could interfere with a successful conclusion.

So he told Lyanna, who he'd just met, because there's no way that would affect anything, but he wouldn't tell his own children?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/20/2020 at 8:40 PM, John Suburbs said:

Well of course we don't know for sure. If we knew for sure then we wouldn't even be discussing it. I am proposing that Howland told Lyanna what he learned on the IoF, and Lyanna then went and did what she did based on this information.

He spent two years with the GM. Whatever he learned, it was quite a bit. Whether it is everything that the GM know is doubtful, though. And however the chain of information worked out, the point is that it began with Howland and led to the events that sparked the war. It's really not that complicated.

How would telling Ned about the soaiof lead him to where Lyanna is being kept? I seriously doubt the song is that prescient and detailed. But I think it's safe to conclude that Ned did not know about it, so Howland did not tell him for whatever reason we are not privy to. I suspect Howland was just being cautious at this point, given what Lyanna did.

He would tell Ned, because it was at least part of the reason why she ran off with Rhaegar. If someone is missing any information can be vital to finding out where they are. Ned would be tracing her steps before she disappeared, similar to how he was asking around what Jon Arryn had been up to before he died. Why would Howland withhold any information that could be helpful. Ned probably believed that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna, IF Howland had reason to believe she went with him on her own account, than that would be information too important not to share.

Not to mention that when people spend a lot of time together searching for a certain person, they would have nostalgic conversations about that person. Like how Robert muses about Lyanna when he sees Ned again, and how Edric Dayne tells Arya that he's Jon's milk brother. It's what people do. Since Howland hadn't spend much time with Lyanna, he only had one story to tell.

Quote

The full song of ice and fire might not be all that complicated: Others up north, the return of the Long Night, a hero with ice/fire blood who will save mankind. Certainly something that can be relayed in two years.

Could be, but that doesn't mean they wanted to share that information with Howland. We really don't know anything about his time there. We can assume he learned things that are important to the story, but that doesn't mean that it has to be a prophecy.

Quote

There are all kinds of reasons why Howland might not tell J&M the whole story, the primary one being that if they know the whole story (and how it will affect them), they might make decisions that could interfere with a successful conclusion. They know all they need to know at this point: get Bran to the three-eyed crow. After that, it's in the hands of the gods.

That would be a very good reason for the GM not to tell Howland Reed. I bet Howland's children are more willing to sacrifice themselves, than anyone would be to sacrifice ALL his children.. you are probably right that the soiaf is quite vague, like all prophecy. So if Howland knows it, he probably doesn't know what to make of it, but in that light it would be weird not to tell them. I think that if he does know the prophecy, it's one of the stories he has been telling his children, but none of them knows what it actually entices. The green dreams are the main reason Jojen and Meera go to Bran, not the prophecy. If Howland (and M&R) know it, they probably only know that it has something to do with the soiaf, but they don't really understand what exactly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

He would tell Ned, because it was at least part of the reason why she ran off with Rhaegar. If someone is missing any information can be vital to finding out where they are. Ned would be tracing her steps before she disappeared, similar to how he was asking around what Jon Arryn had been up to before he died. Why would Howland withhold any information that could be helpful. Ned probably believed that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna, IF Howland had reason to believe she went with him on her own account, than that would be information too important not to share.

Not to mention that when people spend a lot of time together searching for a certain person, they would have nostalgic conversations about that person. Like how Robert muses about Lyanna when he sees Ned again, and how Edric Dayne tells Arya that he's Jon's milk brother. It's what people do. Since Howland hadn't spend much time with Lyanna, he only had one story to tell.

Could be, but that doesn't mean they wanted to share that information with Howland. We really don't know anything about his time there. We can assume he learned things that are important to the story, but that doesn't mean that it has to be a prophecy.

That would be a very good reason for the GM not to tell Howland Reed. I bet Howland's children are more willing to sacrifice themselves, than anyone would be to sacrifice ALL his children.. you are probably right that the soiaf is quite vague, like all prophecy. So if Howland knows it, he probably doesn't know what to make of it, but in that light it would be weird not to tell them. I think that if he does know the prophecy, it's one of the stories he has been telling his children, but none of them knows what it actually entices. The green dreams are the main reason Jojen and Meera go to Bran, not the prophecy. If Howland (and M&R) know it, they probably only know that it has something to do with the soiaf, but they don't really understand what exactly.

He might not tell Ned if he was worried about what Ned would do if he knew all of this started with Howland. This would have been after the war was fought, after Ned risked his life multiple times, after the Targ babes were murdered . . . Howland might have been terrified over what Ned might think of all this. Ned does not need to know the whole truth from Howland in order to learn where Lyanna is; he got that information from someone else.

This would not be a nostalgic conversation. This would be, "it's actually all my fault, all of it, Lyanna's disappearance, your dead father and brother, the war, the dead children, King's Landing, it all started with me . . . sorry."

Yes, we don't know what they discussed. I am attempting to connect the dots, and the dots I see are Rhaegar and Lyanna making a baby that can be considered to have ice and fire blood in his veins shortly after Lyanna encounters Howland Reed who is fresh off the Isle of Faces where there is a high likelihood of deep knowledge about the song of ice and fire. It's called theorizing. It's what readers do all the time, particularly in matters surrounding Rhaegar, Lyanna and Jon.

No, it would not be weird for Howland not to tell his children. Look what happened with Lyanna. She went ahead and took specific actions because he told her about this prophecy. Look at the entire story and see all the trouble people get into because they think they know their futures and take active steps to either fulfill or avert their destinies. It never ends well.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We don’t have enough information other than Rhaegar was planning something. It’s very possible that he wanted to assemble another Great Council imo. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...