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U.S. Politics: Here At the End of All Things


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Last year was the greatest year in the history of Florida, did you know that?

OK, I think he's high as a kite. "I went through it, I'm strong, I'm immune, I'm walking into audiences, feels so good, kissing guys and all the women..."

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8 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Last year was the greatest year in the history of Florida, did you know that?

OK, I think he's high as a kite. "I went through it, I'm strong, I'm immune, I'm walking into audiences, feels so good, kissing guys and all the women..."

 

1 minute ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

DAYUM

I seem to recall your post describing how you felt after taking similar steroids. 

He's a dose or two away from snorting something out of some stranger's ass. 

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GOP Senator Skewered For Griping About How Much It Hurts To Be Called A Racist
Critics advised Sen. John Kennedy there’s an easy way to avoid that name.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/john-kennedy-racist-comment_n_5f84cfb7c5b6e5c320026ab2

Quote

 

“Now, Judge, I understand this thing can turn sour real fast,” Kennedy said, addressing Barrett directly. “We all watched the hearings for Justice Kavanaugh. It was a freak show. It looked like the cantina bar scene out of ‘Star Wars.’”

Justice Brett Kavanaugh was accused of sexual assault by three women during his confirmation hearings in 2018.

“And I know for someone unaccustomed to it, that it hurts to be called a racist,” Kennedy added. “I think it’s one of the worst things you can call an American. I know that it hurts to be called a white colonialist.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Yeah, you’d think Dr Feelgood....uh, Conley, would be weaning him off of those by now.

I guess at this point in history it's really hard to judge how much of this is effects of steroids, and how much the result of an extreme narcissist getting to let loose in front of a friendly crowd when all the news he sees on the TV he obsessively watches tells him he's way behind in the polls. The sort of stress he's under now would probably make him sound even crazier even without the drugs. 

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I feel like signs are piling up that Democrats are indeed very motivated to vote.  Today early voting started in Georgia, and across the state there were hours long voting lines, particularly in Democratic counties (in spite of minimal technical issues).  Long lines aren't a good sign, but on the first day of early voting with comparatively limited voting locations, it does look like another good sign.

That doesn't mean victory is assured, but it does make a big miss in favor of Republicans feel much less likely.  Right now the polls, absentee ballots and early voting data all look good for Dems.  The only really good sign I'm seeing for Republicans is voter registration data in most swing states.  However, that is tempered by this phenomenon:

That might require a little unpacking, but basically good pollsters like NYT are finding a GOP party ID advantage in their polls, and Trump is down big in spite of this.  How could that be possible?  Biden is winning an unprecedented amount of independent voters (+10 or 20 points).  This is likely partially because GOP-leaning independents are changing their registration to Republican, and other independents are turned off by Trump.  And thus there are indeed more likely GOP voters than likely Dem voters.  But Biden is relying on independents to make the difference.  And FYI, Trump won independents by 4 points in 2016 exit polls. 

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25 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Yeah, you’d think Dr Feelgood....uh, Conley, would be weaning him off of those by now.

Not if crazed Daddy Warbucks wants him some juice! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The only really good sign I'm seeing for Republicans is voter registration data in most swing states.

As Wasserman pointed out in his recent writeup about this, the disparity is likely in large part with more and more Dem leaning young voters preferring not to identify with a party.  Good news there is Biden's coalition is not really reliant on any boost - turnout or persuasion - with young voters.

9 minutes ago, Kalibear said:

Like people are looking at this as a triumph of  turnout when it is a triumph of voter suppression.

Maybe it's because other people can also acknowledge the positive aspects of empirical facts instead of doing mental gymnastics to find any possible downside to every piece of data they interpret.

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6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I did.  I said “I don’t know”.  Not knowing the answer may not be a satisfying response, but it is a response.

What kind of take is that?

"Team" will win?

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Just now, DMC said:

Maybe it's because other people can also acknowledge the positive aspects of empirical facts instead of doing mental gymnastics to find any possible downside to every piece of data they interpret.

Oh please. This should piss people off. I'm  glad that people are voting and that's super awesome, but this is like those feelgood stories of a boss paying someone's medical bills when they were seen on a TV special or a GoFundMe - it's a heartfelt story of dealing with adversity that should never fucking happen. How does this not piss you off? How does this not make you rage with the unfairness? 

Again, if you really want to ensure that voting suppression doesn't happen, make it as easy and fast to vote as possible. The biggest suppression comes from people having to spend an entire day in a line to vote on a workday. 

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Just now, Chataya de Fleury said:

Ok, the board doesn’t like me trying to quote, so....

@Kalibear - this is simply, seriously, heavy interest in the election. Last time I waited in a line like this was 2008. The line I waited in for 2012 was maybe 45 minutes, and 2016 was all of 10 minutes. 

Early voting in GA is from Oct 12-Oct 30, and includes 1 Saturday. Hours are 7 am - 7 pm. You can vote at ANY early voting location in your county, and check online to find projected wait times at each location easily. 

That is plenty of time, plenty of days. And then there’s 7-7 on Election Day, to which you are restricted to voting in your precinct.

You shouldn't have to wait in any line to cast a vote. You should get it in the mail, cast your vote by dropping it in a box whenever you want, and do it at your convenience. 

I understand this is heavy interest and that is good. It is also an indictment in the system and how incredibly unfair it is to working people and how it is absurdly inefficient to do this at any scale, and it also happens to likely be an actual source of danger for people to catch a disease. 

Also, @Chataya de Fleury, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the precinct you went to vote in is probably not quite the same as the one that these people are in. You probably had one fairly close by, convenient, and well-staffed for the number of people voting. I'm going to guess the folks in that precinct? Not so much. 

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1 minute ago, Kalibear said:

Oh please. This should piss people off. I'm  glad that people are voting and that's super awesome, but this is like those feelgood stories of a boss paying someone's medical bills when they were seen on a TV special or a GoFundMe - it's a heartfelt story of dealing with adversity that should never fucking happen. How does this not piss you off? How does this not make you rage with the unfairness? 

Of course it pisses me off.  But that doesn't blind me from the fact that long lines on the first day of early voting means strong turnout, and strong turnout almost certainly means good things.  Seriously man sometimes your pessimism reaches extents where I'm pretty sure you're that dad at the beach that stomps over some other family's kids' sandcastle and tells a tearful 6 year old to get over it because that's life. 

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2 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

It does not matter what precinct you are in for early voting. You can go to ANY location in your county.

The fact that you think it's easy to just go to anywhere in a county is telling.

2 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

And GA *does* allow absentee for any reason. I chose not to and many people are choosing not to, because we want our votes to be reported on Election Day.

That's also a problem. You shouldn't have to choose at all. We don't in WA. I'll get my ballot on the 16th, turn it in on the 17th, and it'll be processed and counted on the 18th and I'll be able to see it get tracked on the website. Why have it some other way? Why have the choice of needing to have it counted and actually risk danger? Why is this acceptable to you?

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Of course it pisses me off.  But that doesn't blind me from the fact that long lines on the first day of early voting means strong turnout, and strong turnout almost certainly means good things.  Seriously man sometimes your pessimism reaches extents where I'm pretty sure you're that dad at the beach that stomps over some other family's kids' sandcastle and tells a tearful 6 year old to get over it because that's life. 

Strong turnout is great. Strong turnout during a pandemic and the things that people are having to do to even be vaguely heard pisses me off. I'm sorry that I can't see the joy of people dying or getting sick as a sign of a healthy democracy working well. 

I mean, this isn't pessimism. This isn't me thinking things are going to be bad - this is me looking at a situation and saying 'this FUCKING SUCKS. ' It could be that this is a great foreteller of an election gone right - but right now I'm pissed off so many people have to risk personal danger in order to do a very basic thing. 

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2 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

That, and I think he secretly - or maybe not so secretly - feels that Georgia is a hick state and only super-privileged people have a near 4 hour wait at a polling place “likely nearby and well staffed” etc, as he said.

I drove 45 minutes to get to the Cobb County polling place with the shortest line. 

I don't think Georgia is a hick state. I think it's run by Republicans who are not remotely interested in making it at all easy to vote, have consistently tried to get people off the rolls and reduce polling places whenever possible, and that a 4  hour wait isn't as bad as a 12 hour wait referenced above. I think it's also a sign of privilege that you think it's 'easy' to a) go anywhere in the county, b ) look up wait times on the internet and c) wait for only 4 hours - and somehow you're actually thinking this is the system working

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