Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: Pretty early in the discussion for you to pull the species card. Why won't you address the real problem, bear on bear crime? Bear on bear crime is what people want to talk about when they don't understand bird privilege. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, DMC said: K, if you're saying Trump could win a Senate race somewhere (albeit obviously not New York), maybe. Doubt he'd want to. I think he'll run in 2024. And I think the Republicans will be hard-pressed to confront him, any more than they were in 2016. 1 hour ago, DMC said: Exactly. The media will search for a new face to articulate the GOP's hate and authoritarianism. Particularly the rightwing media. And there are plenty of fascists in training to compete for the mantle. There are, but none at least so far have remotely the presence or name recognition or desire to be so much of a fucking asshole. 1 hour ago, DMC said: My point about them cannibalizing their leaders the past 30 years is a broad trend that extends to Congress and promptly ousting Gingrich, Lott, Delay, Boehner, Cantor, Ryan. I think that'd be reasonable if they were comparable to Trump. I don't think that's the case. There are some that will happily jump ship for the next asshole - evangelicals, some of the more traditional Republicans - but that mass of white men that wants to hate? Oh, they're not going to move on until they get that fix, and let's face it - Cotton is not remotely as satisfying as Trump. 1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said: Trump, if he loses, will be a 1 term Republican POTUS, that is a failure and the Christian right will turn on him as having failed because of his moral corruption, and he let a Jew into his family. The Christian Right absolutely loves the shit out of Trump. He has delivered 3 SCOTUSes to their doorstep and something like 25% of all judges. He has gotten private schools to get public benefits, especially religious ones. The notion that they of all people will turn on him when he did everything he said he would and then some? Please. Moral character only matters when you're opposed to the views they have. Evangelical Christians have an absurdly long history of this with their own fucking religious leaders. You think that him swearing a bit is going to matter? Hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Kalibear said: There are, but none at least so far have remotely the presence or name recognition or desire to be so much of a fucking asshole. Oh, I think plenty have the desire to be just as much of a fucking asshole. Obviously Trump has name recognition right now, that doesn't mean anything for an election four years from now. As for presence? Again, plenty are willing to be just as big if not more of a fucking asshole - and that is the key feature of Trump's presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: Translation: Some bad news for...humanity. I’m walking my Dog. Just got a call from a pollster. They asked if I intended to vote. I said I had already voted. They ended the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, DMC said: Oh, I think plenty have the desire to be just as much of a fucking asshole. Obviously Trump has name recognition right now, that doesn't mean anything for an election four years from now. As for presence? Again, plenty are willing to be just as big if not more of a fucking asshole - and that is the key feature of Trump's presence. If they do, they've not shown it yet outside of really fringe assholes like Shapiro or Hannity. And name recognition means a whole hell of a lot, especially with positive sentiment (which, again, trump bizarrely has). That's a big reason why Biden got the nomination after all. Trump is going to have a lot of name recognition at his back as well as a lot of successes that Republicans can point to. Mostly, I don't think he's going to go away in terms of being loud. McCain and Romney got a bit quieter, GWB almost disappeared completely, but Trump? Trump is never, ever going to shut up. There's not going to be any time for someone else to establish any name recognition. And there's not going to be anyone to out-Trump Trump - why would you go for an offbrand when you can go for the real thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, DMC said: ETA: Also, his international support will immediately evaporate if he loses the presidency. Ya -- nobody of that ilk's got time for a loser. ETA -- phone banking friend says something like 98% of Travis County is registered to vote (site of Austin) -- and almost all of them have voted already! since they could since Tuesday. Also this particularly phone banker has relatives in Austin, and they all been working actively non-stop long Before the virus for the Dem party candidate -- whoever it would turn out to be, they didn't care -- they were working on registering people to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Kalibear said: If they do, they've not shown it yet outside of really fringe assholes like Shapiro or Hannity. I'm talking about the potential 2024 GOP primary field in the event Trump loses. Of course no one's shown anything yet. 2 minutes ago, Kalibear said: And name recognition means a whole hell of a lot, especially with positive sentiment (which, again, trump bizarrely has). He'll have name recognition as the guy who lost convincingly. Jimmy Carter had name recognition that way too. Biden got the confirmation because the Dems wanted to avoid a repeat of the last election so instead took the safe choice of a white male former VP - that didn't lose. You're suggesting the GOP will look back at a convincing loss the last election and be like, yeah, let's do that again. It's the opposite of the Dems' rationale for nominating Biden. 5 minutes ago, Kalibear said: Mostly, I don't think he's going to go away in terms of being loud. Definitely agree there. Although I think he may get bored of it after awhile. Again, he's getting old and he's lazy. I'm sure you can always count on him to call in to Fox and Friends though when he wants to whine about something though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 I tell you, Trump is going to have his own radio show, and run again in 4 years. Unless he’s in jail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, DMC said: I'm talking about the potential 2024 GOP primary field in the event Trump loses. Of course no one's shown anything yet. What's the early prognostication of the Republican field in 2024? Haley? Cotton? Ivanka? Is there a Republican "rock star" waiting in the wings that would cause other Republicans to pause and think before they'd let Trump back in? You're more likely to see Ivanka try to get the top spot to do the grifting before her dad does in 2024... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, DMC said: I'm talking about the potential 2024 GOP primary field in the event Trump loses. Of course no one's shown anything yet. They'd better get started if they want to do anything about Trump. 10 minutes ago, DMC said: He'll have name recognition as the guy who lost convincingly. Jimmy Carter had name recognition that way too. Biden got the confirmation because the Dems wanted to avoid a repeat of the last election so instead took the safe choice of a white male former VP - that didn't lose. You're suggesting the GOP will look back at a convincing loss the last election and be like, yeah, let's do that again. It's the opposite of the Dems' rationale for nominating Biden. This is assuming a blowout loss then? With no shenanigans and court battles and the like? Good luck with that. I think Trump has an easy excuse - the China virus stopped his amazing economy and look how bad Biden is mismanaging things and how the recession still hasn't been recovered (due to GOP obstructionism, but who the fuck cares about things like facts now?) He'll be able to say - and convince others - that outside of that, he was the bestest ever and don't you want to go back to MAGA? Plus he'll get to point to all the illegal mail voting and all the court cases and be able to tell Real Americans that he was robbed. And they'll want to believe him. I think you're really more than anything assuming that Republicans - and especially Trump Republicans - are going to take the loss as something legitimate. I think that was true of everyone else before - Romney, McCain, Dole, GHWB. Trump will not do that, and he has enough pull that they won't let him off the hook. Now, I do say this with one caveat. If Fox somehow found someone more entertaining who also attacked Trump? They'd turn on Trump in an instant. But good luck with that. 10 minutes ago, DMC said: Definitely agree there. Although I think he may get bored of it after awhile. Again, he's getting old and he's lazy. I'm sure you can always count on him to call in to Fox and Friends though when he wants to whine about something though. The idea that a malignant narcissistic sociopath is going to get bored of media attention and crowds telling him that they love him is such a misread of the person that it kind of staggers me. Trump doesn't love things like governing or making decisions or having people not do precisely what he wants them to do (even if he can't actually say what he wants because he's incapable of having consistent thoughts) but he LOOOOOOVES crowds and talking to them and hearing them chant his name. He loves stoking people up and getting them pissed off. Hell, he loves them sending him money for doing nothing more than being an asshole. This is his prized gig. The only thing better is if he could do it while golfing or sexually assaulting women. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, DMC said: I'm talking about the potential 2024 GOP primary field in the event Trump loses. Of course no one's shown anything yet. He'll have name recognition as the guy who lost convincingly. Jimmy Carter had name recognition that way too. Biden got the confirmation because the Dems wanted to avoid a repeat of the last election so instead took the safe choice of a white male former VP - that didn't lose. You're suggesting the GOP will look back at a convincing loss the last election and be like, yeah, let's do that again. It's the opposite of the Dems' rationale for nominating Biden. You're applying logic to a bunch of people that would rather see their families die than admit the libs were right about masks. People who refute climate change while crying that it doesn't snow on Christmas anymore. The same mushbrained morons who look at Donald J Trump and say "more, please." Rational has got nothing to do with these people, no matter your rationale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 It's remarkable to just...listen to Biden. It's not always perfect, especially with his stutter, but actually hearing people with grasps of policy and empathy after this long is just...crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 39 minutes ago, Kalibear said: I think he'll run in 2024. And I think the Republicans will be hard-pressed to confront him, any more than they were in 2016. He'll be 78 then, and have four years of watching Ivanka age into Ivana and watching his sons' chins recede. Four years of McDonald's and Diet Coke and his own bile. Maybe he'll have put us all out of his misery by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: He'll be 78 then, and have four years of watching Ivanka age into Ivana and watching his sons' chins recede. Four years of McDonald's and Diet Coke and his own bile. Maybe he'll have put us all out of his misery by then. He lived through Covid. The fucker is going to not die, he'll be preserved like a fucking hand in a jar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Just now, Jaxom 1974 said: What's the early prognostication of the Republican field in 2024? Haley? Cotton? Ivanka? I have no idea. That's kinda my point - a shitload can happen in 4 years. Or, let's even say two and a half years cuz that's when the primary will start really getting going in this fucked up perpetual campaign. I could see Ivanka running, yeah. I could also see anyone else emerging, who that fuck knows? Who thought Trump would be the 2016 nominee in the event of a Romney loss in October 2012? 2 minutes ago, Kalibear said: This is assuming a blowout loss then? With no shenanigans and court battles and the like? Good luck with that. Not exactly. Convincing lost does not necessarily mean a blowout. I'm saying if he legitimately loses by, say, 100-200k votes in the EC - a la Hillary. Then yes, I'd say Trump has a very good chance to recapture the nomination - at least right now, again a lot can change very quickly. But if he loses convincingly in the EC and actually does lose by 6-7 in the popular vote? Nah, he's done. 5 minutes ago, Kalibear said: If Fox somehow found someone more entertaining who also attacked Trump? They'd turn on Trump in an instant. But good luck with that. I think this is our fundamental disagreement. Fox will undoubtedly start looking for the next Trump if he loses. The Murdochs have no loyalty to him and the younger son loathes Trump. 7 minutes ago, Kalibear said: The idea that a malignant narcissistic sociopath is going to get bored of media attention and crowds telling him that they love him is such a misread of the person that it kind of staggers me. That a lazy entitled 75 year old man in ill health may tire of politics when he's never been that interested in the first place and just got humiliated by losing? Yeah, it's just such a crazy premise. He can still go to CPAC and get his love. Or - yes - endorse candidates during the midterms at rallies. Or even hold Tea Party-esque rallies. I'm not denying any of that - that's what Palin did. Her political career was still over. 12 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said: You're applying logic No I'm not. I'm applying their past behavior to anticipate their future behavior. That's generally how you evaluate political behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 44 minutes ago, Kalibear said: of Trump. He has delivered 3 SCOTUSes to their doorstep and something like 25% of all judges. He has gotten private schools to get public benefits, especially religious ones. The notion that they of all people will turn on him when he did everything he said he would and then some? Please. Moral character only matters when you're opposed to the views they have. Evangelical Christians have an absurdly long history of this with their own fucking religious leaders. You think that him swearing a bit is going to matter? Hah. If he loses in Nov, esp if the Senate is also lost and Congress goes even more blue, yes I expect they will turn on him. Every Republican president who doesn't get 2 terms AND is immediately replaced by another Republican president winds up being not conservative enough. Hence the last president who was exactly the right conservative was Reagan, because he got his 2 terms and gave his vice the White House, only for Bush Snr to turn out to be a RINO. Swearing will be the least of Trump's moral failings as the reasons he lost if he loses in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Kalibear said: He lived through Covid. The fucker is going to not die, he'll be preserved like a fucking hand in a jar. It took the orator I've quoted for years several weeks to kick the bucket. His pizza is still shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Wasn't Barrett involved in the Bush/ Gore election fiasco? Trump didn't skip his debate prep this time. He's lying all the time, plus hardly ever replying to a question, but seems almost sane. He placed a black woman behind him who nods whenever he speaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, Kalibear said: It's remarkable to just...listen to Biden. It's not always perfect, especially with his stutter, but actually hearing people with grasps of policy and empathy after this long is just...crazy. It's truly remarkable. He isn't a perfect candidate (who is?), but to see somone who knows what he speaks of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: If he loses in Nov, esp if the Senate is also lost and Congress goes even more blue, yes I expect they will turn on him. Maybe? But it won't be because of his moral failings. And again, they don't care so much about the feckless senate and the House because they don't do that much to move the ball. Now if the filibuster goes away and they start seeing real laws being passed they might be more angry - but it still probably won't be at Trump. They got three justices. I think you don't understand how much power that actually represents for the next 40 years. 2 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: Every Republican president who doesn't get 2 terms AND is immediately replaced by another Republican president winds up being not conservative enough. Hence the last president who was exactly the right conservative was Reagan, because he got his 2 terms and gave his vice the White House, only for Bush Snr to turn out to be a RINO. Using a sample size of 1 is not particularly strong. Bush Jr was a failure because he got shellacked by the economy, and that's entirely it. There simply aren't many 1-term POTUS out there at all, and GHWB is the only real other example. Is GHWB remotely similar to Trump? 6 minutes ago, DMC said: Not exactly. Convincing lost does not necessarily mean a blowout. I'm saying if he legitimately loses by, say, 100-200k votes in the EC - a la Hillary. Then yes, I'd say Trump has a very good chance to recapture the nomination - at least right now, again a lot can change very quickly. But if he loses convincingly in the EC and actually does lose by 6-7 in the popular vote? Nah, he's done. Outside of a 400 EC win, I don't see anything as 'convincing' to Republicans. Especially with the firestorm of court hearings we're going to have to deal with for the next half a year. 6 minutes ago, DMC said: I think this is our fundamental disagreement. Fox will undoubtedly start looking for the next Trump if he loses. The Murdochs have no loyalty to him and the younger son loathes Trump. Sure! But the problem is that there is no one else and Trump is eating all the airtime. Not just from Fox either - I've counted how many days that the news bulletin on NPR doesn't lead with "Trump" as one of the first 5 words, and it's something like 1 in 20. On NPR! No one is around right now to replace that. 6 minutes ago, DMC said: That a lazy entitled 75 year old man in ill health may tire of politics when he's never been that interested in the first place and just got humiliated by losing? Yeah, it's just such a crazy premise. I don't think he has ever been or is capable of feeling humiliation - that implies being able to feel humbled. Again, this is a gross mischaracterization of a narcissist. What he will do is rage, blame everyone (but especially people that are others, like black people and China), and make it clear that it isn't his fault, it isn't his issue, and everyone else cheated. So yes, this is a crazy premise - it very much misunderstands what drives a person like Trump. 6 minutes ago, DMC said: No I'm not. I'm applying their past behavior to anticipate their future behavior. That's generally how you evaluate political behavior. And what does Trump's past behavior imply about what he'll do next? Does it imply he'll go away? Does it imply that he'll act at all humiliated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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