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Killjoybear

US Politics: Town Hell

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The bottom line is, down by double digits in the polls, Trump did not change many minds Thursday night. He came off as an anti-masker, tax dodger, super spreader, killer of Obamacare and pre-existing conditions coverage, a critic of his own government and someone who continues to be challenged by telling the truth on the simplest of subjects. I doubt he lost votes because of any of this, but he's in the game of winning votes at this point with the clock running out. Another opportunity wasted.

Trump wasted a big opportunity

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/15/opinions/donald-trump-town-hall-nbc-lockhart/index.html

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9 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Btw, it was Janet Yellen. I’m 3 glasses of wine in, so I’m naming names!!!

And to be TRULY geeky, it was an actuarial convention.

A South Carolina Judge I’m friendly with is Ben Bernackies first cousin.  :)

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8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Think everyone understands that Trump won't go quietly into that good night. What is less clear is exactly how he will rage against the dying of his light.

If Trump loses convincingly, such that he looks foolish to attempt to contest the election, his three months as a lame duck give me heart palpitations.  Is there anything he will not do?

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4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Wait the guardian is reporting Pennsylvania has rejected zero ballots out of the many that have been cast?

Not quite, they just don't have rejected ballot data yet (as we all know, the 'naked' ballot issue already resulted in at least 9 votes being thrown out, 7 of which were for Trump)

Edited by IheartIheartTesla

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IBD/TIPP has some more modest Biden leads (+6/+5 if you include Jorgensen), but they seem to be on the lower end of Biden numbers anyways. Should also note they have 950-ish respondents while the USC/Dornsife or Morning Consult have many more. Might be methodology differences, but the average of polls has hardly budged. Cant imagine the town hall yesterday helped.

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15 hours ago, Relic said:

Yeah we had this conversation in 2016, as well. The GOP was on its last legs, bleeding out, all but dead...And yet here we are. 

 

I won't buy it until I see the body. 

Yep.

People should not treat polls by themselves as something that must inevitably reflect reality.

I cannot help but see people lashing out of Silver again as if he promised them for sure Trump would lose instead of giving  a probability.

Trump has a real chance to the presidency—I believe he will—but he also has a real chance of losing.

The mentality for dems should be to treat Biden’s lead as  a point. 
About the same margin Clinton lost around in 2016.

 

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In the War for the Senate: 

  • Iowa debate went well for Greenfield, not so well for Ernst: 
  • polls from Alaska show Gross even or 1 point ahead of Sullivan but a big poll from the NYT landing today; 
  • Most recent spate of SC polls show Harrison at 40% and Graham at 45-46%.  I've not quite let myself believe Harrison can pull it off; 
  • Perdue remains ahead of Ossoff in the polls but below 50% threshold; 
  • New Montana poll shows Bullock 2 ahead.

Likeliest D pickups, IMO: CO, AZ, ME, NC, IA, MT, AK, GA, GA, KS, SC, TX, KY.   

Edited by Gaston de Foix

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All indications are that this is going to be a very high turnout election.  Here's the comparison of the first day of in person early voting:

NC - 333,000 (166,000 in 2016)

GA - 128,000 (91,000 in 2016)

TX - 1.1 million (can't find comparable number in 2016, but all articles with a county level show increases of 10-50%).

 

I can see how the surge in absentee ballots is mostly a COVID thing, but there's no way to blame wanting to vote on the first day of in person voting on COVID.  It's because of Trump.  And a LOT of people want to make their voice heard.  I feel pretty comfortable saying that we should use "high turnout" scenarios from now on. 

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https://www.willmarradio.com/news/murdock-city-council-considers-permit-for-controversial-church-expansion/article_f8afc056-0ee0-11eb-a5ff-33d44dc27c9c.html
 

A special city council meeting in Murdock yesterday was filled to capacity. FOX-9 news says the residents of Murdock showed up to oppose a controversial religious group that some call white supremacists. 

 

Edited by Varysblackfyre321

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Fragile, sometimes there are telecommunications issues. It’s not like the good old telephone...though even that is not as clean as we’d like to think. I’m paraphrasing a telecom industry person that I know very well.

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Interesting article from Brian Beutler about what to do regarding the GOP after Trump. It's a laundry list of new laws and programs that will prevent the GOP from holding the nation hostage with obstructionism, particularly ideas like automatic stimulus when unemployment raises that have been gaining currency as well as entirely getting rid of the debt ceiling. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's interesting seeing on the news that Rudy is being linked to the possible leak of Hunter Biden's emails.

Speaking of children of politicians and sins of the father: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/15/rudy-giuliani-daughter-endorses-joe-biden

Quote

“If being the daughter of a polarizing mayor who became the president’s personal bulldog has taught me anything, it is that corruption starts with ‘yes-men’ and women, the cronies who create an echo chamber of lies and subservience to maintain their proximity to power,” his daughter writes.

Right in time for Thanksgiving.......

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Looks like Democrats are taking the Senate races seriously. Some of this money might be wasted on races that won't win, but it's a good sign that D voters are engaged.

Democratic Senate challengers shatter money records, boosting their hopes of flipping chamber from Republicans

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/15/politics/democratic-senate-candidates-campaign-cash-windfall/index.html

Quote

 

(CNN)Democratic challengers from Arizona to South Carolina have raised tens of millions of dollars in their battle to win control of the US Senate -- as an energized liberal base sends gushers of cash to Democrats up and down the ballot ahead of Election Day.

Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and first-time candidate seeking to oust Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona, raised more than $38.7 million in the July-to-September fundraising quarter, his campaign announced Thursday. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, a Democrat trying to knock off first-term Republican Sen. Steve Daines, took in nearly $27 million, which his campaign said topped state records.
And in Kentucky, home to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, filings from his Democratic rival, Amy McGrath, show she has collected more than $36.8 million in her bid to topple the Senate's top Republican.
In all, at least eight Democratic challengers have announced fundraising totals that top $20 million during the third quarter, ahead of a midnight deadline for candidates to file reports with federal regulators that detail their recent political activity.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Hmm, when I click on the link it seems to work.

Odd.

I got nothing but an NBC logo.

But when I went back to my quote of the link, the link works. This has happened repeatedly on the board, people mention “the link doesn’t work”, leave the thread, come back in and try again, the link works. Or in their quote of the post. Weird.

32 minutes ago, HoodedCrow said:

Fragile, sometimes there are telecommunications issues. It’s not like the good old telephone...though even that is not as clean as we’d like to think. I’m paraphrasing a telecom industry person that I know very well.

Nah, it’s just annoying as all hell!

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16 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Looks like Democrats are taking the Senate races seriously. Some of this money might be wasted on races that won't win, but it's a good sign that D voters are engaged.

Democratic Senate challengers shatter money records, boosting their hopes of flipping chamber from Republicans

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/15/politics/democratic-senate-candidates-campaign-cash-windfall/index.html

 

Forcing the Republicans to invest in what they had thought were safe seats is a good strategy if you have the money to burn, which the Democrats seem to have this year.  Whereas the GOP have had funding issues due to Trump raiding (and embezzling) the war chest.  It also helps just in general.  During the early 2000s it seemed as though the DNC got too focused on the federal races, and practically gave up on state legislatures.  This ended up costing them a lot, because those states have a lot of subtle influence on the federal races.   We really need to fight for every state, because the Republican Propaganda machine knows no borders at this point.

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35 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Speaking of children of politicians and sins of the father: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/15/rudy-giuliani-daughter-endorses-joe-biden

Right in time for Thanksgiving.......

Yeah, I saw that too. I wouldn't read too much into it.

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Looking at money, the Trump campaign is pulling ads from MN's largest media market, indicating they are running low on money and have given up hope on poaching the state (instead having to defend GA etc.)

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