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US Politics: Town Hell

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2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Early vote update, 10/16:

Nationally - 22.1 million votes cast. 

Swing state votes, as percentage of 2016 votes cast:

Pennsylvania - 11%

Michigan - 27%

Wisconsin - 26%

Florida - 24%

Georgia - 27%

North Carolina - 19%

Arizona - 17%

Nevada - 8%

Texas - 27%

 

Almost 5 million new votes came in since yesterday!  Adding Texas even though it's only marginally a swing state, because I think that they will come the closest among the swing states to exceeding their 2016 vote total prior to election day.  This is because Texas is much more competitive this year and the population is growing rapidly. 

Neat! This kind of thing limits the impact of an October surprise, as a large percentage of Americans will already have voted by the time Trump can convince the FDA to approve some witch's brew of a vaccine. I think that is a good thing; late-breaking developments shouldn't have that kind of impact on an election. In any case, the notion that most voters are using additional time to carefully evaluate evidence and issue positions is just laughable. 

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Just now, TrackerNeil said:

Neat! This kind of thing limits the impact of an October surprise, as a large percentage of Americans will already have voted by the time Trump can convince the FDA to approve some witch's brew of a vaccine. I think that is a good thing; late-breaking developments shouldn't have that kind of impact on an election. In any case, the notion that most voters are using additional time to carefully evaluate evidence and issue positions is just laughable. 

I'm happy as anyone to see so many people already voted, but I'm not sure it has the impact that you are ascribing it.  Most of the earliest votes are the most partisan voters.  Lukewarm supporters and true undecideds almost always wait till the last minute.  Clinton was way ahead in the polls for most of October, and it made no difference.

I'm taking a lot more consolation in the fact that early voting is confirming the polls to some extent.  Democratic voters are much more enthusiastic to turn out than 2016.  This looks like a high turnout election and if it's not, it will be because Trump's support collapses, not Dems staying home.   High turnout elections favor Democrats generally, and they hurt Trump in particular since he is so reliant on base turnout.  It is realistic Biden can find 10-12 million more voters than Clinton did in 2016, and it is hard to see how Trump could do the same. 

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1 hour ago, Relic said:

Would be better if he had some testicular fortitude. 

Would be better if he voted Green party. Would be better if he voted for Biden. Would be better if he wasn't a fucking clown. 

As is, he's just mocking the process. And maybe it deserves ot be mocked, with these bullshit candidates we vote for time and time again. However, being a politician with a voice he can do a LOT more than write in his idol. 

Wasn't he trying to broadcast to the world in general he's no supporter of the insane monster, and broadcast to the RNC that he remains, however, a Real Rplican?

Anyway, as far as the real numbers of how many watched which one, the official count is always going to be that nobody ever got the highest numbers evah than him, just like his inauguration had the highest numbers of attendees ever in the history of the world of anything.

As far as early voting by mail -- our ballots haven't even arrived, that's what a wreck this is here with the goDDEmned Dems.

Edited by Zorral

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Lukewarm supporters and true undecideds almost always wait till the last minute. 

But there are hardly any of undecideds, according to all the polling and surveys. They're like 4% of the electorate compared to, IIRC, 10% in 2016.

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1 minute ago, Ran said:

But there are hardly any of undecideds, according to all the polling and surveys. They're like 4% of the electorate compared to, IIRC, 10% in 2016.

True, this election the lukewarm supporters are probably more relevant.  Biden has plenty of those, and ensuring that they turn up to vote is probably the most important thing his campaign can do in the next three weeks. 

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40 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

Georgia is tinting blue people...

Yassss, it’s why Trump pulled all his ads in Minnesota to concentrate on GA.

Which means that I have to put up with seeing stupid billboards featuring a smiling picture of the man, with his photoshopped hands giving a thumbs up, with a caption of TRUMP 2020: Americans vs Communism.

I sh1t you not.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I'm taking a lot more consolation in the fact that early voting is confirming the polls to some extent.  Democratic voters are much more enthusiastic to turn out than 2016.  This looks like a high turnout election and if it's not, it will be because Trump's support collapses, not Dems staying home.   High turnout elections favor Democrats generally, and they hurt Trump in particular since he is so reliant on base turnout.  It is realistic Biden can find 10-12 million more voters than Clinton did in 2016, and it is hard to see how Trump could do the same. 

Somewhat ironically, since it usually seems like I'm the most optimistic in these threads about the election, I don't have any such positive takeaways from the early voting numbers. I don't have any negative takeaways either. I just think that the circumstances surrounding this election are just so unusual that it seems impossible to draw any real conclusions.

Trump's anti-mail voting talk seems to have discouraged his supporters from voting early, but that doesn't mean there might not be massive hordes of them voting on election day. And we don't know yet to what extent Democrats are capturing new/unlikely voters versus cannibalizing their election day vote even more than normal. 

 

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Joementum.

On October 21st, 2016 (one week before the Comey letter), they had 323-191 with 24 toss ups. More states in play now, Biden with an overall greater lead, and again, the polling is just better tuned. 

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

And we don't know yet to what extent Democrats are capturing new/unlikely voters versus cannibalizing their election day vote even more than normal. 

Pretty sure NYT shared survey stuff showing that Biden has won a substantial number of people who voted for Trump or third party in 2016, so there's definitely some new people involved in voting for him who did not vote for Clinton four years ago.

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12 minutes ago, Ran said:

Pretty sure NYT shared survey stuff showing that Biden has won a substantial number of people who voted for Trump or third party in 2016, so there's definitely some new people involved in voting for him who did not vote for Clinton four years ago.

Also, this report from Florida says that Democrats who have already voted there have more "low propensity voters" and also more newly registered voters.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/14/florida-swing-states-428893

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4 minutes ago, Fez said:

Somewhat ironically, since it usually seems like I'm the most optimistic in these threads about the election, I don't have any such positive takeaways from the early voting numbers. I don't have any negative takeaways either. I just think that the circumstances surrounding this election are just so unusual that it seems impossible to draw any real conclusions.

Trump's anti-mail voting talk seems to have discouraged his supporters from voting early, but that doesn't mean there might not be massive hordes of them voting on election day. And we don't know yet to what extent Democrats are capturing new/unlikely voters versus cannibalizing their election day vote even more than normal.

A couple of things I see as positive signs:

1.  Dems are returning their absentee ballots at a higher rate than republicans.  In past elections, the reverse was true.  Yes, this is partly because Trump is criticizing vote by mail.  However, absentee ballots help candidates win, and being ahead is better than being behind. 

2.  In person voter turnout is up significantly compared to 2016 in NC, GA, OH, and TX (the only states I've looked for data).  Usually dems like early voting vs election day, so that is a good thing.  But it also just shows high enthusiasm for voting overall.  Like I said, high turnout elections favor Democrats generally, and they hurt Trump in particular since he is so reliant on base turnout. 

3. The disparity in ballot returns even applies to states that vote almost entirely by mail like Colorado, where Dems have nearly a 2 to 1 edge thus far.

4.  At least some of these early voters are new, although it is hard to know whether these percentages are above or below what you would expect.

Quote

an AP analysis of the early vote shows 8% of early voters had never cast a ballot before, and 13.8% had voted in half or fewer of previous elections for which they were eligible.

 

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Regarding that politico article, it does make the point that a Republican wave is coming, so I'm not sure we can extrapolate too much (plus its Florida). Personally I find it hard to connect these numbers with what polls estimate since it requires a detailed understanding of Florida and its demographics

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1 hour ago, SaltyGnosis said:

Georgia is tinting blue people...

I never would have thought to see that again in my lifetime.  

Edit:  Last time they voted blue was in 1992, with a 13% spoiler for Ross Perot.

Edited by argonak

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I'm happy as anyone to see so many people already voted, but I'm not sure it has the impact that you are ascribing it.  Most of the earliest votes are the most partisan voters.  

In any other year, I might agree with you; in the midst of a pandemic, I am less sure. I imagine lots of people are trying to avoid long lines for fear of getting sick, so it might not just be partisans voting early.

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Going back to the Larry Hogan writing in Zombie Reagan.

It doesn'T really make much of a difference, whether he votes Biden or not. Maryland is (supposedly) not exactly a swing state. Biden is supposed to carry that state easily. If Biden really needed Hogan's vote/endorsement to win it, then his campaign would've a lot more to worry about than the Ron Zombie vote.

Ofc, Hogan could'Ve easily put his vote, where his mouth is, but like I said, Maryland is not a swing state. If he had pulled that stunt in Ohio, I would get the outrage.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Regarding that politico article, it does make the point that a Republican wave is coming, so I'm not sure we can extrapolate too much (plus its Florida). Personally I find it hard to connect these numbers with what polls estimate since it requires a detailed understanding of Florida and its demographics

I am in no way discounting the Republican votes that are very likely to come.  I am just saying that early voting indicates (strongly) that Democrats are very motivated to vote.  That makes a big polling miss in favor of Republicans less likely.  Not impossible, just less likely. 

Just now, TrackerNeil said:

In any other year, I might agree with you; in the midst of a pandemic, I am less sure. I imagine lots of people are trying to avoid long lines for fear of getting sick, so it might not just be partisans voting early.

Yeah, which makes the Trump strategy of having all his voters wait until election day even more risky.  COVID is trending up, and there's a reasonable chance that it will be Republicans that are facing long lines on election day.  Which would be a reversal. 

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22 minutes ago, Kalibear said:

See, @DMC was right and Republicans are just moving on from Trump as fast as they can

He probably shouldn't associate himself with Micheal Steele though.  Anyway, rather uninspired joke from the Onion - pretty sure that's their fourth or fifth iteration of the same canard over the past 20 years.

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33 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Going back to the Larry Hogan writing in Zombie Reagan.

It doesn'T really make much of a difference, whether he votes Biden or not. Maryland is (supposedly) not exactly a swing state. Biden is supposed to carry that state easily. If Biden really needed Hogan's vote/endorsement to win it, then his campaign would've a lot more to worry about than the Ron Zombie vote.

Ofc, Hogan could'Ve easily put his vote, where his mouth is, but like I said, Maryland is not a swing state. If he had pulled that stunt in Ohio, I would get the outrage.

If a random Republican wants to write in a dead race baiting reactionary President instead of the living race baiting reactionary President I can shrug and say it's one less vote in favor for the present danger, so basically a good thing.

It just gets under my skin for a politician to be such a coward though. I feel any politician owes it to their constituents to be honest about their views. Larry Hogan does not truly expect Reagan to be elected President. He should be honest about what he means by his symbolic vote. Does he prefer Trump to Biden but wants to ineffectually scold Trump by writing in Reagan? Or does he prefer Biden to Trump but wants to ineffectually support Biden by writing in Reagan? His personal vote doesn't matter either way, but he's a public figure and he should own his view, whatever it is. 

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