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US Politics: Town Hell

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Just now, BigFatCoward said:

DMC and Kalibear are the fantasy board equivalent of the volleyball match on top gun. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Ran said:

I believe my particular version of the Florida ballot (for Palm Bay in Brevard County) had 24 separate items to vote on, including 7 judges and 6 constitutional amendments. Took me a couple of days to get through my research before I felt I could vote properly.

Yeah it can be tedious, but I have a hard time complaining about direct democracy.  I'm also generally fine with judicial elections.  If there's runoff for both - which there is quite a bit for judicial elections - so be it.  What I will say is that Missouri plan retention elections are rather pointless.  Pretty sure no Florida SC justice has ever lost a retention election.

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2 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

John Franklin Kennedy

Franklin?

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4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I think he meant John Fitzgerald Kennedy.

I thought the biggest insult to your people was dressage as an Olympic sport.

Isn't the 1936 Olympics for yours? 

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Don't know what the eff is up with NY.  Our ballots still haven't arrived and I put in our requests for them early in September.

Well, as previously said, it's lucky that the early voting polling spot for us is close by.

 

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4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Isn't the 1936 Olympics for yours? 

Never really cared for the Olympics tbh. Only thing I tend to watch are the 100m finals (summer) and the Hockey tournament (winter).

Otherwise, I regard my equestrian brethren in contempt, who willfully dance to the tune of their masters on an open stage. Particularly, if their master's tune of choice is Santana.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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13 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah it can be tedious, but I have a hard time complaining about direct democracy.

True, true. It's more about why the US system seems to take so much longer than that used in other countries. It produces some unique challenges. 

13 minutes ago, DMC said:

  I'm also generally fine with judicial elections.  If there's runoff for both - which there is quite a bit for judicial elections - so be it.  What I will say is that Missouri plan retention elections are rather pointless.  Pretty sure no Florida SC justice has ever lost a retention election.

Yeah, feels rather pointless. I'll vote no as appropriate, but small hope anything comes of it.

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The IBD/TIPP poll that had Biden up yesterday by 'only' 6/5 today has Biden up 8/7, and his average in the polls remains +10.

Speaking of Florida, I am a bit surprised by how the poll average has him up by 4, when most of the recent ones seem to have a smaller margin than that. Might be the average is lagging a bit.

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5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Never really cared for the Olympics tbh. Only thing I tend to watch are the 100m finals (summer) and the Hockey tournament (winter).

Otherwise, I regard my equestrian brethren in contempt, who willfully dance to the tune of their masters on an open stage. Particularly, if their master's tune of choice is Santana.

What? You don't like the one where they ski around and shoot shit? 

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

What? You don't like the one where they ski around and shoot shit? 

Biathlon? I'll watch it, sorta. But not really bullish about it. I couldn't tell you how many competition there are. I guess it's 8? But, I think, our big fat copper would know more about it, than I do.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

Fair enough it's your opinion, but this opinion is simply wrong.  It'd be like saying polling analysis isn't useful.

Er, no. It really isn't. Polling, when done well, is an unbiased sample, which you can use infer any number of things from the population as a whole. Early voting, by its very definition, is biased, because it is specifically people who have already voted. And there is simply no way of knowing what, if any, variables make people who have already voted different from the people who have not voted yet. Any analysis being made with such the potential for a massive uncontrolled, unknown variable is pure garbage.

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1 minute ago, Fez said:

Polling, when done well, is an unbiased sample, which you can use infer any number of things from the population as a whole.

The inferences used to construct unbiased samples rely on assumptions based on past data from the population/electorate.  Just as McDonald and other turnout experts derive their expectations by comparing early voting rates to previous cycles.  It's the same process.  All variables in political science outside of experimental labs are "uncontrolled."  Now there's definitely more uncertainty with early voting data, especially this cycle.  But the current pace outweighs prior cycles by so much that the math is pretty damn clear - even if only 20% vote on election day - unless there's an extraordinary dropoff in the next few weeks.  Is that possible?  Sure.  But it's also very unlikely.  Just like Biden's polling lead getting cut down to 3 to 4 points is possible but very unlikely.

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18 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Biathlon? I'll watch it, sorta. But not really bullish about it. I couldn't tell you how many competition there are. I guess it's 8? But, I think, our big fat copper would know more about it, than I do.

Do not be disparaging about biathlon. It's the ultimate test of physical and mental strength. 

 

Edited by BigFatCoward

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4 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Who the hell is Jack?

John Fitzgerald Kennedy (May 29, 1917 – November 22, 1963), often referred to by his initials JFK and Jack, was an American politician who served as the 35th president of the United States from January 1961 until his assassination in November 1963.

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9 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Yeah, but it would be funny, but then you realize that all the classified informations he had access to during his tenure is gonna go straight to Vladimir Vladimirovich, and it kinda kills the fun.

I don't know, I find it quite amusing to imagine Vlad trying to get anything actually useful out of a confused mess of misrememberings, exaggerations, and plain made up nonsense. There'd certainly be a great deal of classified information Trump theoretically had access to, but either didn't register even at the time, or he's totally forgotten since.

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11 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Do not be disparaging about biathlon. It's the ultimate test of physical and mental strength. 

 

I mean, you also.....
 

 

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29 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Do not be disparaging about biathlon. It's the ultimate test of physical and mental strength. 

 

I wasn't. Was just remarking that you probably know better than I, how many Biathlon competitions there are at the Olympics, I estimate 8. ((Sprint, the big field race, pursuit, team) x2)). I am very likely missing some, no idea, whether mixed team is also at the olympics, and I might also be missing a second team race. And yes, I considered women and men competition, thus x2.

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23 minutes ago, felice said:

I don't know, I find it quite amusing to imagine Vlad trying to get anything actually useful out of a confused mess of misrememberings, exaggerations, and plain made up nonsense. There'd certainly be a great deal of classified information Trump theoretically had access to, but either didn't register even at the time, or he's totally forgotten since.

Don't forget, Jared and Ivanka also got their security clearence. So, they might remember a thing or two. Like I said, when you think about, how much sensitive informaiton was handed out, to not entirely trustworthy people, things get less amusing.

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