IheartIheartTesla Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Can someone inform me how pollsters deal with early voters? Are they included in likely voters or excluded? There are a few ways I can think some of the polls may be off Ear;y voters non-response to polls - underestimating D support 1st debate non response - R voters now returning to polls leading to tightening Early voters not included in polls at all - underestimating D support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teej6 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 New NYT/Sienna poll shows Biden with a 9 point lead. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/us/politics/biden-trump-times-poll.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Can someone inform me how pollsters deal with early voters? Are they included in likely voters or excluded? They're included. For an example, just pulling up the ABC/WaPo NC poll, the third item asks if the respondent plans to vote on election day, vote early, or already voted. 10% said they already voted, and they're still included in the sample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 34 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: A few quality polls out today - Siena has Biden up nationally by 9, ABC/WaPo has him up by 1-3 in NC, UNF by 1 in Florida. Note that both state polls went for Trump in 2016, so if you add +6 (or 7) to what the state margins were in 2016, they might end up being relatively close to what you see now. Gotta say, I don't love these polls. These are closer to the pre-debate polls rather than the polls (excluding Trafalgar) of the past few weeks. Though I also didn't love the CBS polls over the weekend or the Reuters PA poll yesterday. Things may be getting closer again for some reason. On the other hand, most national polling has been great still. Also, the various house district polling mostly looks incredible for Biden. And, as others have pointed out, that was the leading indicator in 2016 that Trump was breaking through. So hopefully it's a similar sign for Biden this time. I dunno. I didn't sleep great last night, so I think I'm just in a pessimistic mood today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Fez said: Yes, I think it should have to go the PA Supreme Court first. But the GOP could always just try filing directly with SCOTUS. And if there was a majority there that was "damn the torpedos, we're full steam ahead on the SS Trump", they could throw out centuries of precedent and just take the case. The US Supreme Court’s original Jurisdiction is quite limited, particularly on State law issues. I don’t think it can accept original jurisdiction in a case like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 42 minutes ago, DMC said: Well, RCP currently has his lead in PA at 3.8. It's 6.5 according to 538, but such a drop wouldn't be that shocking. And again, if so, there are still many more paths for Biden to hit 270 - most glaringly Arizona - than there realistically were for Hillary. I wouldn’t press much faith in Arizona. It’s voted red for decades after all and on RCP it’s average currently isn’t that different than Pennsylvania’s. 42 minutes ago, DMC said: Importantly, I'm referring to how the race looks right now compared to how it looked on election eve in 2016. Here are the final RCP averages in 2016: Wait are you citing the final averages or the averages two weeks out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said: I wouldn’t press much faith in Arizona. I have more faith in AZ than FL or NC. 3 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: Wait are you citing the final averages or the averages two weeks out? As the quote you're responding to stated, final averages. As an aside, if you look here, today would be the equivalent of when Clinton's RCP 'top battleground' lead started to tank. On October 24 (equivalent to October 19 this cycle), she held a 4.8 point lead. The next three days that dropped to 4.4 to 4.1 to 3.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 minute ago, DMC said: I have more faith in AZ than FL or NC. Fair. But if Pennsylvania can’t be relied upon I think it’s fair to call the election for Trump. Its unlikely he’d get lucky enough to get Florida or NC to make up for it. 3 minutes ago, DMC said: As the quote you're responding to stated, final averages. True. Apologies for misreading it before responding. 3 minutes ago, DMC said: On October 24 (equivalent to October 19 this cycle), she held a 4.8 point lead. The next three days that dropped to 4.4 to 4.1 to 3.8. Ah. Let’s see if a similar trend happens with Biden. Hopefully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: Fair. But if Pennsylvania can’t be relied upon I think it’s fair to call the election for Trump. Its unlikely he’d get lucky enough to get Florida or NC to make up for it. ....Even if he doesn't get FL or NC to make up for it - which is a baseless assumption he wouldn't - he still could get AZ. So, no, it would not at all be fair to "call the election for Trump." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 30 minutes ago, DMC said: ....Even if he doesn't get FL or NC to make up for it - which is a baseless assumption he wouldn't - he still could get AZ. So, no, it would not at all be fair to "call the election for Trump." Yes, he could, but the polling there shows it to be far more favourable to Trump than Pennsylvania. I won't say Biden can't get FL or NC. He could also theoretically get Texas-I’m just saying that's an extremely unlikely scenario if Biden loses Pennsylvania Perhaps it's a little presumptivs to call the election on that state being lost. But I don't think unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/north-carolina/ The north Carolina senate race is tightening. This is weeks out from.the reveal of the affair but I really hope the Democrats’ chances of taking back the senate aren't dashed because a guy did the most unsexy sexting I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: I won't say Biden can't get FL or NC. He could also theoretically get Texas-I’m just saying that's an extremely unlikely scenario if Biden loses Pennsylvania No, it's absolutely not an extremely unlikely scenario. That's simply wrong. Just because he loses PA does not necessarily mean he'll lose FL or AZ or NC. Particularly considering how demographically different the first two states are than PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 I'm sure we'll get a LOT of polling in the next two days prior to the final debate. I agree that polls over the past 2-3 days have been less favorable for Biden, but they're still a long way away from good for Trump. NYT Biden +9 nationally is still a complete disaster, we're just spoiled with double digit results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 IBD/TIPP has Biden up +3 though, so I do believe the race is tightening, just as we expected. Not sure where we will end up, but we should also expect some of the state polls to be closer. Thats just the reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 The Justice Department is about to announce they are bringing an anti-trust lawsuit against Google. The market is shrugging it off, either they lose and Google continues as a great company, or they win and succeed in breaking up parts of the company, unlocking value for shareholders. Either way, buy the stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielcassady/2020/10/19/trumps-denial-of-rape-allegation-was-official-act-doj-asserts-in-seeking-to-take-over-presidents-case/amp/ Your tax dollars at work people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teej6 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: IBD/TIPP has Biden up +3 though, so I do believe the race is tightening, just as we expected. Not sure where we will end up, but we should also expect some of the state polls to be closer. Thats just the reality. I’m putting my faith in early voting trends, probably a bit naive of me. The enthusiasm for early voting shows that the electorate cares this time (as opposed to 2016) around and want their voices heard/ votes counted. And if one makes the reasonable and logical assumption that democrats are far likelier to vote early, then the early voting lines bode well for Biden. Besides, I don’t see how there can be so great a narrowing of the margins the closer we get to Nov 3, if we believed most pollsters when they said most people have already made up their minds. Either they were wrong then, or they are now. I’m still quite optimistic about Biden’s chances for a big win, but also think we should be cognizant of Jen O’ Malley Dillon’s warning and not feel this is a done deal. Every democrat in this country that is eligible to vote, should vote like their lives depended on it, and vote early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, teej6 said: I’m putting my faith in early voting trends, probably a bit naive of me. The enthusiasm for early voting shows that the electorate cares this time (as opposed to 2016) around and want their voices heard/ votes counted. And if one makes the reasonable and logical assumption that democrats are far likelier to vote early, then the early voting lines bode well for Biden. Besides, I don’t see how there can be so great a narrowing of the margins the closer we get to Nov 3, if we believed most pollsters when they said most people have already made up their minds. Either they were wrong then, or they are now. I’m still quite optimistic about Biden’s chances for a big win, but also think we should be cognizant of Jen O’ Malley Dillon’s warning and not feel this is a done deal. Every democrat in this country that is eligible to vote, should vote like their lives depended on it, and vote early. I wouldn't say we're seeing a great narrowing in the polls. We're seeing a bit of movement. The only poll that has moved significantly is the IBD/TIPP poll, and they lean republican (although they aren't a joke firm like Trafalgar/Rasmussen). The early voting trends look good, but there's a lot we still don't know. Definitely no room for complacency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Maithanet said: I wouldn't say we're seeing a great narrowing in the polls. We're seeing a bit of movement. The only poll that has moved significantly is the IBD/TIPP poll, and they lean republican (although they aren't a joke firm like Trafalgar/Rasmussen). The early voting trends look good, but there's a lot we still don't know. Definitely no room for complacency. Yeah. The other polls I don't like from the past few days, don't necessarily show a narrowing, because they're the first polls from those organizations of those states in a while. What they do show is the race basically where it was before the first debate, rather than match what's come since. So whether there was a debate bounce that faded or a narrowing or nothing at all, I don't know. IBD/TIPP is showing a narrowing. Although, they have the race changing by, what?, 4 points in 2 days. Something seems off there. Though I agree they aren't a joke poll, just an R-leaning one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielcassady/2020/10/19/trumps-denial-of-rape-allegation-was-official-act-doj-asserts-in-seeking-to-take-over-presidents-case/amp/ Your tax dollars at work people. That’s an old story I reported weeks ago. Still outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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