Heresy 233 A Walk on the White Sid[h]e

[oldbus]

The advantage I see in this theory is that it is compatible with Bran's vision of the Heart of Winter which scared him, and I assume is a key source for the "big bad dark lord" (at least it was for me).

If the Cold is is elemental which draws walkers from the trees and raises the wights, looking into the Heart of Winter (the ultimate cold in the far north) would also be terrifying for Bran, without the need for a dark lord-type figure.

Speculating on Cold, leads on to what is the opposite: Fire. Valyria with the volcanoes would probable be the ultimate expression of that.  And if you have Fire then, as Melisandre points out, you have shadows (that also naturally emerge).

[Tucu]

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Returning to the thread and Tucu's proposition that the walkers and wights are an accidental side effect.

As things stand at the moment we have two "mainstream" theories; one that the blue-eyed lot are are some kind of a secret weapon controlled by the three-fingered-tree huggers, the other is that somewhere out there is a so far unseen "big bad" dark lord personified by the Mummers as the Knights King. Both have big drawbacks which we've discussed endlessly over the years, so I won't rehearse the arguments again beyond saying that the blue-eyed lot [both versions] seem the antitheses of what the tree-huggers represent, while the Big Bad simply hasn't appeared.

Turn to Tucu's suggestion that they are instead an unintended consequence, and to Qhorin Halfhand's warning that the trees have eyes again.

If the Tree-huggers are responsible, why should the trees have eyes again ?

We have a shrewd suspicion that in the past men have been sacrificed to the trees. We also have a lot of testimony that the appearance of the blue-eyed lot is linked with the Cold. I've suggested above that the wights are raised by the Cold, which to some extent is straightforward enough, while the Walkers are former skinchangers - but what if the Cold draws them out of the trees ?

In the Time and Causality threads we discussed the ghostly "cold dreams" that are linked to a cold event in the surroundings of the dreamer. I listed the "cold dreams" that I could find here:

and here:

Varamyr's emergence from the weirwood is also linked to a cold event:

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The white world turned and fell away. For a moment it was as if he were inside the weirwood, gazing out through carved red eyes as a dying man twitched feebly on the ground and a madwoman danced blind and bloody underneath the moon, weeping red tears and ripping at her clothes. Then both were gone and he was rising, melting, his spirit borne on some cold wind.

<...>

True death came suddenly; he felt a shock of cold, as if he had been plunged into the icy waters of a frozen lake. Then he found himself rushing over moonlit snows with his packmates close behind him.

<...>

Below, the world had turned to ice. Fingers of frost crept slowly up the weirwood, reaching out for each other. The empty village was no longer empty. Blue-eyed shadows walked amongst the mounds of snow.

 

So if an individual ghostly visit/dream and the emergence of a soul from the weirwoods can generate cold events, could a positive feedback loop create the conditions for a continent wide extreme cold event? Chaos theory and the butterfly effect comes to mind. A short description of a positive feedback loop in Biology:

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A positive feedback loop occurs in nature when the product of a reaction leads to an increase in that reaction. If we look at a system in homeostasis, a positive feedback loop moves a system further away from the target of equilibrium. It does this by amplifying the effects of a product or event and occurs when something needs to happen quickly.

GRRM already applies the concept of positive feedback loop here:

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Before the First Men came all this land that you call Westeros was home to us, yet even in those days we were few. The gods gave us long lives but not great numbers, lest we overrun the world as deer will overrun a wood where there are no wolves to hunt them

 

[Tucu]

Some further thoughts on the idea of a positive feedback loop.

GRRM mentions three times the question if the wights and Others come with the cold or if they bring the cold. First in ASOS Samwell II:

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Yes," said Sam, "but is it the cold that brings the wights, or the wights that bring the cold?"

And then on the repeated Sam and Jon interaction in AFFC Samwell I and ADWD Jon II:

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The Others come when it is cold, most of the tales agree. Or else it gets cold when they come. Sometimes they appear during snowstorms and melt away when the skies clear. They hide from the light of the sun and emerge by night . . . or else night falls when they emerge

Sam makes it sound like this is an exclusive disjunction (XOR), but it could well be an inclusive disjunction (OR). If there is a positive feedback loop the emergence of the wights and WW can at the same time be caused by the cold and it can bring additional cold.

[LynnS]

57 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Some further thoughts on the idea of a positive feedback loop.

GRRM mentions three times the question if the wights and Others come with the cold or if they bring the cold. First in ASOS Samwell II:

And then on the repeated Sam and Jon interaction in AFFC Samwell I and ADWD Jon II:

Sam makes it sound like this is an exclusive disjunction (XOR), but it could well be an inclusive disjunction (OR). If there is a positive feedback loop the emergence of the wights and WW can at the same time be caused by the cold and it can bring additional cold.

Hah!  This really cool! 

 

[Melifeather]

On 1/24/2021 at 8:07 AM, Black Crow said:

As things stand at the moment we have two "mainstream" theories;

While I still prefer my non-mainstream theory that the wildlings are to blame for bringing the white walkers to life, I do acknowledge that a more accidental or unintended creation would make a nice inverted parallel to Melisandre's deliberate creation of black shadows.

[Black Crow]

22 hours ago, oldbus said:

The advantage I see in this theory is that it is compatible with Bran's vision of the Heart of Winter which scared him, and I assume is a key source for the "big bad dark lord" (at least it was for me).

If the Cold is is elemental which draws walkers from the trees and raises the wights, looking into the Heart of Winter (the ultimate cold in the far north) would also be terrifying for Bran, without the need for a dark lord-type figure.

Quite, Bran's vision is often interpreted as him seeing some kind of a dark lord sitting on an icy throne surrounded by the legions of the damned as they wait for the off.

For along time now I've  been of the mind that he simply sees the future, but that of course isn't incompatable at all with seeing the elemental cold which raises the dead and draws the souls of skinchangers from the wood.

There is a further wrinkle to this of course in the hints that there's something nasty in the Winterfell woodpile and an old theory on heresy that the current big winter storm emanates from Winterfell

[Tucu]

5 hours ago, Melifeather said:

While I still prefer my non-mainstream theory that the wildlings are to blame for bringing the white walkers to life, I do acknowledge that a more accidental or unintended creation would make a nice inverted parallel to Melisandre's deliberate creation of black shadows.

They could still be unintentionally responsible in part for the re-awakening. Their souls (including skinchangers) have been feeding into the trees for thousands of years, Mance went tomb raiding and they supply the bodies for the wights.

Ygrette feels responsible for freeing the shades so maybe Mance started opening graves before the old powers gained strength. Mance actions might be the butterfly.

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We opened half a hundred graves and let all those shades loose in the world

 

[LynnS]

17 hours ago, Tucu said:

Some further thoughts on the idea of a positive feedback loop.

I like this idea.  You could say that Martin is also using time and causality as a feedback loop.

My question:  how does dragonglass fit in with breaking the spell? 

[Black Crow]

12 hours ago, Tucu said:

We opened half a hundred graves and let all those shades loose in the world

While at first sight Ygritte's statement sounds a bit apocalyptic, it needs to be tempered by a sense of proportion

Mance is acting in response to an existing threat. Ygritte references shades - ghosts - not wights, Presumably if in life they were skinchangers [qualifying for indentifiable graves - barrows?] once "released" that's a potential, or at least feared, 50 Walkers

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

My question:  how does dragonglass fit in with breaking the spell? 

Presumably the spell is cast by the skinchanger/walker using the same Cold which "raised" him, but this is countered by the application of Dragonglass aka frozen fire

[Tucu]

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

While at first sight Ygritte's statement sounds a bit apocalyptic, it needs to be tempered by a sense of proportion

Mance is acting in response to an existing threat. Ygritte references shades - ghosts - not wights, Presumably if in life they were skinchangers [qualifying for indentifiable graves - barrows?] once "released" that's a potential, or at least feared, 50 Walkers

I will try to explain my probably too convoluted line of thought.

It seems that the WW/wight threat has existed for a long time beyond the Wall but at some point it reached some sort of equilibrium. The wildlings burn their dead and live in low density settlements; the ancient tombs are probably warded like the Winterfell crypts; Craster and some tribes in the Frozen Shore worship and sacrifice to cold gods.

Craster says that he dismissed Mance's fears when he visited:

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There had been no attacks while they had been at Craster's, neither wights nor Others. Nor would there be, Craster said. "A godly man got no cause to fear such. I said as much to that Mance Rayder once, when he come sniffing round. He never listened, no more'n you crows with your swords and your bloody fires. That won't help you none when the white cold comes. Only the gods will help you then. You best get right with the gods."

Unlike Craster, Mance was raised in the NW to fear the ancient enemies. After deserting he started gathering wildlings and raiding tombs.So my question is: were his actions to find ways to fight the Others a key part in breaking the equilibrium?

[Black Crow]

59 minutes ago, Tucu said:

I will try to explain my probably too convoluted line of thought.

It seems that the WW/wight threat has existed for a long time beyond the Wall but at some point it reached some sort of equilibrium. The wildlings burn their dead and live in low density settlements; the ancient tombs are probably warded like the Winterfell crypts; Craster and some tribes in the Frozen Shore worship and sacrifice to cold gods.

Craster says that he dismissed Mance's fears when he visited:

Unlike Craster, Mance was raised in the NW to fear the ancient enemies. After deserting he started gathering wildlings and raiding tombs.So my question is: were his actions to find ways to fight the Others a key part in breaking the equilibrium?

Its important of course that Craster equates the danger with the white cold, but Mance's object, ostensibly at least, wasn't to fight the Others but to find a way to bring down the Wall in order to run away from them,

I stress ostensibly because of course we don.t know what he's rightly up to, but that's what he told his people and why they broke what was presumably a strong taboo to break into those graves [barrows?]  

[Melifeather]

5 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Mance is acting in response to an existing threat.

I disagree. I believe Mance devised a plan - after meeting Dalla - to manufacture a threat and convince the Watch to release the wildlings from incarceration with minimal loss of life and leave the Wall in place. The mention of red fabric from Asshai that she used to mend his cloak was intended to connect Dalla to Melisandre in thought and deed. Ygritte’s anger when she educated Jon on the wildling perspective was demonstrative of the emotion Mance exploited to gather all the tribes to unite and make him King Beyond the Wall. The wight and white walker horde preceded them down the mountain. They weren’t fleeing. They were following.

[Tucu]

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Its important of course that Craster equates the danger with the white cold, but Mance's object, ostensibly at least, wasn't to fight the Others but to find a way to bring down the Wall in order to run away from them,

I stress ostensibly because of course we don.t know what he's rightly up to, but that's what he told his people and why they broke what was presumably a strong taboo to break into those graves [barrows?]  

Regarding Craster and the white cold: he seems to think that he bought protection from its eventual return with his sacrifices. Maybe a place in some warded warm cave with a freezer full of mysterious meat.

On Mance, his fear seems sincere but he is a lying crow so you are right that we can't be sure on his real plans. In ADWD he still seems to be looking for tombs to raid. Do we have an estimate of how long he has been gone from the Wall?

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, Tucu said:

Regarding Craster and the white cold: he seems to think that he bought protection from its eventual return with his sacrifices. Maybe a place in some warded warm cave with a freezer full of mysterious meat.

I think that Craster's belief is straightforward. He doesn't fear the blue-eyed lot because he's square with the Gods. Where I think any confusion may arise [quite deliberately] is in the understandable assumption that when he talks about Gods he's referencing his own choice from among the Old Gods and the New. However his daughter Gilly refers to the Walkers themselves as Gods, "the ones that come in the night" and that's why he reckons he's right by them, because he's dealing direct when he makes his sacrifices to "the Cold Gods"

1 hour ago, Tucu said:

On Mance, his fear seems sincere but he is a lying crow so you are right that we can't be sure on his real plans. In ADWD he still seems to be looking for tombs to raid. Do we have an estimate of how long he has been gone from the Wall?

Its a bit vague, although like a lot of things I suspect that's more down to GRRM not paying attention. Its also a bit contradictory. Jon meets a middle-aged but still vigorous man, yet is reminded that he met him some years before as part of Lord Qorgyle's escort. The trouble is that as Jon is still only a teenager that doesn't leave a lot of time to get injured by a shadowcat, nursed back to health, return to the Wall, desert, stumble across the threat, build up a reputation and become a feared King Beyond the Wall. Yet Jon remembers him as being a young man.

[Tucu]

6 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Its a bit vague, although like a lot of things I suspect that's more down to GRRM not paying attention. Its also a bit contradictory. Jon meets a middle-aged but still vigorous man, yet is reminded that he met him some years before as part of Lord Qorgyle's escort. The trouble is that as Jon is still only a teenager that doesn't leave a lot of time to get injured by a shadowcat, nursed back to health, return to the Wall, desert, stumble across the threat, build up a reputation and become a feared King Beyond the Wall. Yet Jon remembers him as being a young man.

Too bad. It would be interesting to have a timeline of Mance's plan evolution. In GOT Bran VI, Osha seems to think that Mance was still intended on fighting the WWs

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"The cold winds are rising, and men go out from their fires and never come back … or if they do, they're not men no more, but only wights, with blue eyes and cold black hands. Why do you think I run south with Stiv and Hali and the rest of them fools? Mance thinks he'll fight, the brave sweet stubborn man, like the white walkers were no more than rangers, but what does he know? He can call himself King-beyond-the-Wall all he likes, but he's still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower. He's never tasted winter. I was born up there, child, like my mother and her mother before her and her mother before her, born of the Free Folk. We remember."

 

[Melifeather]

15 hours ago, Tucu said:

He's never tasted winter. I was born up there, child, like my mother and her mother before her and her mother before her, born of the Free Folk. We remember."

Interesting. The last time it was winter was 9-10 years ago, right? Jon was 16 when he went to the Wall so he was around 5 years old the last time it was winter. When Mance visited Winterfell as a man of the Watch it was winter then, correct? Isn't there some comment about Jon and Robb pushing snow down on people as they passed under a walkway? 

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A Storm of Swords - Jon I

It made no sense at first, but as Jon turned it over in his mind, dawn broke. "When you were a brother of the Watch . . ."

"Very good! Yes, that was the first time. You were just a boy, and I was all in black, one of a dozen riding escort to old Lord Commander Qorgyle when he came down to see your father at Winterfell. I was walking the wall around the yard when I came on you and your brother Robb. It had snowed the night before, and the two of you had built a great mountain above the gate and were waiting for someone likely to pass underneath."

"I remember," said Jon with a startled laugh. A young black brother on the wallwalk, yes . . . "You swore not to tell."

 

 

[Black Crow]

 

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

A Storm of Swords - Jon I

It made no sense at first, but as Jon turned it over in his mind, dawn broke. "When you were a brother of the Watch . . ."

"Very good! Yes, that was the first time. You were just a boy, and I was all in black, one of a dozen riding escort to old Lord Commander Qorgyle when he came down to see your father at Winterfell. I was walking the wall around the yard when I came on you and your brother Robb. It had snowed the night before, and the two of you had built a great mountain above the gate and were waiting for someone likely to pass underneath."

"I remember," said Jon with a startled laugh. A young black brother on the wallwalk, yes . . . "You swore not to tell."

Quite. It depends a bit on whether we're talking about winter or Winter but we're still left with that contradiction between that "young black brother" and middle-aged Mance Rayder, King beyond the Wall. I don't think that there's any underlying textual significance, but if does make it difficult to establish a timeline.

[Tucu]

Tricky question to answer. From GOT we know that the North gets late summer snows. We don't get specifics about spring and early or mid-summer

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

 

Quite. It depends a bit on whether we're talking about winter or Winter but we're still left with that contradiction between that "young black brother" and middle-aged Mance Rayder, King beyond the Wall. I don't think that there's any underlying textual significance, but if does make it difficult to establish a timeline.

I guess that's all it takes - 10 years to go from "young" to "middle-aged"!