TrackerNeil Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: That doesn’t bode well for Democrats, They and they’re supporters are most likely to request mail in ballots and have that as their stated intent on voting. Remember that, when many of us in the Keystone State requested mail-in ballots, we did not know that early voting in Philadelphia and other counties would be available at one of many satellite offices. (I myself didn't know it, and I made sure to drop off my mail-in ballot at one of those locations.) So it is entirely possible that many who received mail-ins decided to vote in person early, or else decided that, with Trump ruining the post office (like he ruins all else he touches), it was safer to just show up at the polls. Or, with all of that early voting, many people might have figured the Election Day polls wouldn't be very crowded, so they decided to wait. There are many, many possibilities, and until I have data, I'm not going to lose sleep figuring out which one is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Fez said: Exactly. This is why, if you use 538's new election simulator, if you just say Biden will win New Hampshire, a state no one is really considering a battleground, it jumps his chances of winning the election from 87% to 93%. If you just say he'll win Nevada to goes from 87% to 94%. Given Biden both and its 96%. And so on. That tool is fun, but I feel like the real insights are when you start mixing results. Like if you say Trump wins FL and AZ, but Biden wins MI, MN and NV, what percentages are you looking at? Well according to this, it's 81%. Down from his current polling, but not a disaster in spite of losing two states he's currently leading. That is the importance of the midwest this year. Likewise, Trump winning PA and losing FL gives him a higher number than winning FL and losing PA (in spite of 9 more EVs in Florida). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maithanet said: That tool is fun, but I feel like the real insights are when you start mixing results. Like if you say Trump wins FL and AZ, but Biden wins MI, MN and NV, what percentages are you looking at? Well according to this, it's 81%. Down from his current polling, but not a disaster in spite of losing two states he's currently leading. That is the importance of the midwest this year. Likewise, Trump winning PA and losing FL gives him a higher number than winning FL and losing PA (in spite of 9 more EVs in Florida). Yeah. It's also cool for seeing the variations in "safe" states. For instance, if you say Biden wins Missouri (a shocker, although there's been a surprising amount of insider tweets about it being closer than people think); then Biden has a 40% chance of winning Kansas and a 29% chance of South Dakota; but only a 9% chance of Nebraska statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkynJay Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Fez said: Spoilers for the upcoming Borat movie I guess. The actress was actually 24, so no crimes here. But still, Giuliani apparently thought he was about to have sex (and maybe started jerking it) to someone he thought was 15. I would be curious how much is on tape here. Was he really under the impression she was 15? Or is Borat running in the first indication of that? Is this something real, or a project Veritas(spl?) type of selective editing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Fez said: Yeah. It's also cool for seeing the variations in "safe" states. For instance, if you say Biden wins Missouri (a shocker, although there's been a surprising amount of insider tweets about it being closer than people think); then Biden has a 40% chance of winning Kansas and a 29% chance of South Dakota; but only a 9% chance of Nebraska statewide. Here's a fun quiz. There are only two states that Trump is currently favored in on 538, where if Biden pulls the upset (without changing any other states), Biden is less than 99% to win the election. Can you guess which ones? Spoiler Alaska (98%) and Mississippi (97%). Those states are sufficiently different from the rest of the country that a crazy upset there doesn't necessarily mean Biden has it in the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Ya'll should watch the YOUTUBE of Sacha B. Cohen singing the Wuhan flu with a bunch of gleefully participating Trump rednecks. It's to die for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 I definitely suspect much more is being made of the Giuliani scene than is probably warranted by the film itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Maithanet said: Here's a fun quiz. There are only two states that Trump is currently favored in on 538, where if Biden pulls the upset (without changing any other states), Biden is less than 99% to win the election. Can you guess which ones? Hide contents Alaska (98%) and Mississippi (97%). Those states are sufficiently different from the rest of the country that a crazy upset there doesn't necessarily mean Biden has it in the bag. Spoiler I got Mississippi right. I thought about Alaska, and should've gone with it. I picked Montana instead. I knew it had to be a low-EV state, and that something had to be demographically different. Though I suppose Montana would mean Iowa also flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 24 minutes ago, Altherion said: Right, but Biden winning by 7 is not the same thing as Biden leading in the polls by 7 close to election day. You can get 99%+ from the former because it's really hard to see how such a large national margin leaves room for him to lose the Electoral College (not impossible, but hard -- you have to construct some highly implausible pathological scenario with blowouts in many states and really close results in many others). On the other hand, if Biden leads by 7 in the polls, it's entirely possible that he'll win by 3 or by 11 -- not likely, but possible. The combination of a downward fluctuation for Biden and moderate vote distribution effects (such as in 2016) is why Silver only rate's Biden's chance at 87% or so. To the bolded that is a fair point. Though shouldn't the forecast already by in the 90s given the closeness of the election and the increase of Biden’s polling lead? 26 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Decades is a stretch give it was just three presidential cycles ago. Apologies for the error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ran said: I definitely suspect much more is being made of the Giuliani scene than is probably warranted by the film itself. I had to see it, so you do too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 30 minutes ago, Ran said: I definitely suspect much more is being made of the Giuliani scene than is probably warranted by the film itself. Yeah, there's probably a perfectly innocent explanation for why he followed a young "reporter" into a hotel room, complimented her looks, they removed each other's microphones, and then he laid down on the bed and put his hands down his pants. I bet he was just trying to prove that the Trump "pee tape" couldn't possibly have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Just now, DanteGabriel said: Yeah, there's probably a perfectly innocent explanation for why he followed a young "reporter" into a hotel room, complimented her looks, they removed each other's microphones, and then he laid down on the bed and put his hands down his pants. I bet he was just trying to prove that the Trump "pee tape" couldn't possibly have happened. He also agreed to eat a bat. WHOMST AMONGST US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: I had to see it, so you do too: OK, I'm ready to swallow the bleach cure now, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 34 minutes ago, Ran said: I definitely suspect much more is being made of the Giuliani scene than is probably warranted by the film itself. I kinda don't care about Giualini trying to get with a woman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Having seen the behind-the-scenes of the previous Borat film and others of Cohen's antics, and assuming others have as well, I'm surprised at the complete credulousness that the presentation of what happened is 100% congruent with what Giuliani thought was happening. I mean, it's going to be hilarious, but still, come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonak Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: I had to see it, so you do too: We really are in the stupidest timeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ran said: Having seen the behind-the-scenes of the previous Borat film and others of Cohen's antics, and assuming others have as well, I'm surprised at the complete credulousness that the presentation of what happened is 100% congruent with what Giuliani thought was happening. I mean, it's going to be hilarious, but still, come on. Rudy already bragged to the press months ago about how SBC didn't "get" him. He talked about being surprised by a man in a "transgender outfit" during a TV interview and calling the cops on him, then realizing it was Borat. He curiously didn't mention having his hands down his pants. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/rudy-giuliani-calls-police-being-pranked-by-sacha-baron-cohen-1302570 Anyway, even though the reporter was actually 24 and not 15, I think it's safe to say that Sacha Baron Cohen has now done more to fight child trafficking than all QAnon morons combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 24 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: Yeah, there's probably a perfectly innocent explanation for why he followed a young "reporter" into a hotel room, complimented her looks, they removed each other's microphones, and then he laid down on the bed and put his hands down his pants. I bet he was just trying to prove that the Trump "pee tape" couldn't possibly have happened. Well if you remember Stormy's recount of her time with Donald, he kind of did the same thing. I guess creepy game recognizes creepy game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ran said: Having seen the behind-the-scenes of the previous Borat film and others of Cohen's antics, and assuming others have as well, I'm surprised at the complete credulousness that the presentation of what happened is 100% congruent with what Giuliani thought was happening. I mean, it's going to be hilarious, but still, come on. I posted Bruno's fun time here with Ron Paul before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 ETA: Unfortunately, the Indiana College Democrats guy has admitted the text exchange today was "just satire." Doesn't detract from the actual Borat video though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.