Ormond Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 As to the 538 election simulator -- as a voter in Nebraska's 2nd district, I was interested in seeing how predictive we are. If Trump wins the second district, Biden has a 55% chance of winning the electoral college. If Biden wins the 2nd district, he has a 96% chance. I am amazed that who wins the one electoral vote where I live makes that much difference in the overall prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: POPULAR VOTE MARGIN SCENARIOS BIDEN’S CHANCES OF WINNING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE Biden +6 to Biden +7 >99% Biden +5 to Biden +6 98 Biden +4 to Biden +5 93 Biden +3 to Biden +4 77 Biden +2 to Biden +3 54 Biden +1 to Biden +2 29 TIE to Biden +1 11 Trump +1 to TIE 3 Trump +2 to Trump +1 <1 He's started if Biden wins by at least 7 points in the popular video Biden would have a 99% chance of winning. And in this article, he started months ago if Biden had a 7 point lead Biden would have 90+ percent chance at winning based on the fact time ran out. I don't know what that image is taken from - be nice if you provided an actual link - but on September 30, when 538 had Biden's national lead at 7.6, Silver said this: Quote Case in point: In an election held today — Trump has no more time to make up ground — his chances would be 9 percent, not 21 percent, according to our forecast. And less than 72 hours ago, Silver said this: Quote And if Joe Biden maintains his current lead in the polls, Trump’s chances will fall further — although the forecast thinks it’s more likely that the race will tighten. But say Trump’s chances do decline further — to 5 percent by Election Day, for example — I’d keep a few things in mind. So, seems pretty clear to me Silver anticipates the model will narrow to Trump having about a 5-10 percent chance if Biden maintains a 7-10 point national lead on election day - NOT less than one percent. Anyway, on this "if Biden loses PA" scenario you keep harping on, Silver's new interactive tool today actually lets us look at this. If all you do is say Trump wins PA and nothing else, then yes obviously Biden's chances of winning drop dramatically. However, he still would have a 25% chance of winning the EC. That's pretty bad, yeah, but it also means independent of any other information/results, Biden would still have a 1 in 4 chance of winning. That's still twice Trump's current chances of winning in 538's model, and it's about the same chances 538's model gave Trump in their final forecast before election day in 2016. Hell, it's 11 points more than Trump's chances to win PA right now. This is why your constant posts foreboding doom and gloom are not only preposterous and tiring, but entirely detached from both reality and anyone attempting to objectively describe empirical polling analysis on the current state of the race. 28 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: He also agreed to eat a bat. WHOMST AMONGST US Obviously Giuliani just thought he was about to participate in an election simulation on zoom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ormond said: As to the 538 election simulator -- as a voter in Nebraska's 2nd district, I was interested in seeing how predictive we are. If Trump wins the second district, Biden has a 55% chance of winning the electoral college. If Biden wins the 2nd district, he has a 96% chance. I am amazed that who wins the one electoral vote where I live makes that much difference in the overall prediction. Seriously? 538’s poll average is over 7 points. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/nebraska-2/ Yet Silver still gives Trump a better chance of getting that than Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ormond said: As to the 538 election simulator -- as a voter in Nebraska's 2nd district, I was interested in seeing how predictive we are. If Trump wins the second district, Biden has a 55% chance of winning the electoral college. If Biden wins the 2nd district, he has a 96% chance. I am amazed that who wins the one electoral vote where I live makes that much difference in the overall prediction. If Biden wins NE-2, there's much less chance of a big polling miss in favor of Trump. In addition, NE-2 is similar to (at least parts of) the key midwestern states he needs to win (MI, WI and PA). Conversely, if Biden's polls are wrong in NE-2, there's a much higher chance they're wrong elsewhere and the door is open for a Trump win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: Yet Silver still gives Trump a better chance of getting that than Pennsylvania. No, he doesn't. His model gives Biden a 78% chance of winning the Nebraska 2nd and a 86% chance of winning PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Lots of polls out of Iowa today, pollsters must think there is something afoot. Biden is running even or slightly ahead in them. Unfortunately, voters seem to be threading the needle between Trump and Ernst, since she leads in a few of those. I thought her soybean fiasco would affect her, but probably more evidence debates matter less and less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Just now, IheartIheartTesla said: Lots of polls out of Iowa today, pollsters must think there is something afoot. Biden is running even or slightly ahead in them. Unfortunately, voters seem to be threading the needle between Trump and Ernst, since she leads in a few of those. I thought her soybean fiasco would affect her, but probably more evidence debates matter less and less. Still a good chance that whoever wins the Presidential race will win the Senate as well, so I'm happy to see Biden doing as well as he ever has there. It is odd that Ernst seems to be a bit ahead of Trump when she'd been a couple points behind him all cycle. Hard to really come up with a reason why that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, Maithanet said: If Biden wins NE-2, there's much less chance of a big polling miss in favor of Trump. In addition, NE-2 is similar to (at least parts of) the key midwestern states he needs to win (MI, WI and PA). Conversely, if Biden's polls are wrong in NE-2, there's a much higher chance they're wrong elsewhere and the door is open for a Trump win. Although I think the education attainment is NE-2 is really high compared to any of those entire states. So I'm bit surprised that it would be that predictive. But I guess it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Just now, Fez said: Although I think the education attainment is NE-2 is really high compared to any of those entire states. So I'm bit surprised that it would be that predictive. But I guess it is. Hence me saying parts of. But if Biden is doing at least 3 points better than Clinton in high education suburban districts like NE-2 (since Trump won it by 2.3%), then that is a good start on Biden doing the same in highly educated cities like Madison, Detroit and Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Hence me saying parts of. But if Biden is doing at least 3 points better than Clinton in high education suburban districts like NE-2 (since Trump won it by 2.3%), then that is a good start on Biden doing the same in highly educated cities like Madison, Detroit and Pittsburgh. For sure. But it doesn't answer the question of if Biden is doing any better among rural areas, or the same, or doing even worse than Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 56 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: Yes. EEEEEEEEWWWWW I do enjoy @Killjoybear’s new name, though. That’s the only good thing to come out of October thus far. That was thanks to @Gaston de Foix! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Fez said: For sure. But it doesn't answer the question of if Biden is doing any better among rural areas, or the same, or doing even worse than Clinton. Ultimately it does, though perhaps not in the way you want. If the kind of demographic NE-2 votes for Biden, that implies both turnout and demographic that are similar to other places which would in turn mean those are likely going to go Biden as well. I don't think that's necessarily accurate for a variety of reasons, the biggest one being that in-person voting is likely to be very differently impacted by Covid depending on what state you're in, so you can't make the same kind of blanket demographic comparison that you could normally. But that's their logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Fez said: For sure. But it doesn't answer the question of if Biden is doing any better among rural areas, or the same, or doing even worse than Clinton. It doesn't, but if we get one piece of information showing him improving on Clinton's margins (even with only a subset of the voting public), that is still a really good sign. Because Trump can only win (or win fairly anyway) with a big polling miss in his favor. Winning NE-2 makes that far less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 CNN has Biden +10 in PA, +4 in FL with LVs. Big RV/LV advantage for Dems (it's only Biden +5 and +2 with RVs). Still, those are definitely good results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 This is too perfect. Trump and the White House press secretary presented Lesley Stahl with a massive book which they said represented the President's beautiful health care plan. The White House tweeted out the image of the presentation and her reaction to how heavy it was .... and her opening it up to take a peek and discovering that it was the usual big pile of blank pages. Why are they this incompetent? Or is the Resistance in the WH press shop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonak Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ran said: This is too perfect. Trump and the White House press secretary presented Lesley Stahl with a massive book which they said represented the President's beautiful health care plan. The White House tweeted out the image of the presentation and her reaction to how heavy it was .... and her opening it up to take a peek and discovering that it was the usual big pile of blank pages. Why are they this incompetent? Or is the Resistance in the WH press shop? This really shouldn't be surprising. Trump is a showman. There's nothing behind the curtain. He sells dreams and feelings, and then moves on with your money. He is the epitome of a slick big city con man who travels the countryside ripping off rubes. He's mastered the art of manipulating them. And his people believe his own lies. They probably think there's nothing wrong with this. That it's just a metaphor for the amazing plan he'll make, without seeing that it really is a metaphor for everything that is trump. A fancy expensive cover on an empty blank book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: That was thanks to @Gaston de Foix! We will have to give you a more festive name once the election turns out OK. The Boss and I watched Trump's Erie rally yesterday. She pays a lot less attention to politics than I do, but she said two interesting things. The first was that he seemed much more prepared to defend his COVID performance than in the first debate and the banning travel from China talking point. I wonder if we will see that in the debate tomorrow in addition to talking about Hunter Biden and Rudy Giuliani. The second was that his vagueness and imprecision is strategic: he's not trying to express thoughts but feelings (which echoes something said upthread). Short words, simple sentences, with a lot of ambiguity thrown in. And saying what people want to hear. That's what has made him popular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 50 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Unfortunately, voters seem to be threading the needle between Trump and Ernst, since she leads in a few of those. I thought her soybean fiasco would affect her, but probably more evidence debates matter less and less. I don't like the polls showing a Ernst lead but the overwhelming number still show a Greenfield lead. I would prefer a world where every single poll shows we win that seat of course (as the polls in AZ, CO and ME do), but that is an unrealistic standard. The polls showing Barbara Bollier tying with Marshall in KS are also very encouraging. I think this could be a sleeper win the Dems pull off. KS, MT, GA (x2). One of them has to turn out OK. I just don't want us to be in a position where Joe Manchin as the 50th vote can kill Biden's entire agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterbumps! Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 53 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Still a good chance that whoever wins the Presidential race will win the Senate as well, so I'm happy to see Biden doing as well as he ever has there. It is odd that Ernst seems to be a bit ahead of Trump when she'd been a couple points behind him all cycle. Hard to really come up with a reason why that would be. Could that reflect people who typically vote repub but truly hate Trump such that they are either abstaining from a vote for president or voting Biden, while also voting for republicans down ticket to limit the “damage” Biden can do? (and to mitigate the identity crisis caused by voting dem I imagine) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, Ran said: This is too perfect. Trump and the White House press secretary presented Lesley Stahl with a massive book which they said represented the President's beautiful health care plan. The White House tweeted out the image of the presentation and her reaction to how heavy it was .... and her opening it up to take a peek and discovering that it was the usual big pile of blank pages. Why are they this incompetent? Or is the Resistance in the WH press shop? Isn't that in the wheelhouse of what they think is a great joke? They do this kind of thing on purpose because they think it makes -- in this case, Stahl -- look stupid, and that's very funny and their fans eat it up with a spoon, because they showed how stupid she was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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