Why isn't SweetRobin dead already?

[Lollygag]

8 hours ago, Lady Dacey said:

The mind boggles. I always read Petyr Baelish to be very connected to the "game of thrones", so to speak, I feel he's precisely the character that seeks mundane power by means of mundane power plays. But your post has picked up my interest and I'd love to read more about this you think we know if you'd care to explain, or maybe provide some links?

I don't really have any links. A lot of it is based on his character not adding up if he's really climbing in the same way Bronn is attempting to do.

To be a major lord, one must appear strong, warrior-like, but LF goes out of his way to appear non-threatening: he smiles all of the time, is helpful, he cracks jokes. Not lord material in any traditional sense. And the incident with Catelyn and Brandon shows the LF doesn't just want the powerful position, he wants to be seen as an equal, or better. And he never will be more than an upjumped steward to them. He offered to marry Sansa but Cersei rejected that because LF wasn't good enough for someone of her birth. It's deeply insulting and a sign of a backward society that they don't recognize LF's clear superiority when they see it while idiots who are lords by luck of birth are higher than him. 

I think he's tearing down a system that rejected him in favor of something meritocracyish though I'm not sure exactly how that might look. He seems to be collecting high-born bastards and he bastardized Sansa. These are powerful kids who have beaten down by the system like LF has so my guess is he will put these high-born kids into power who have the same contempt for that system. And LF knows well that there is more power behind the curtain than in front of it.

ACOK Tyrion VII

"And to hold it you need men, which I've given you . . . as you might have noted, if your ears heard anything but insults. Take them, thank me, and begone before I'm forced to take a crab fork to you again. Give my warm regards to Lord Mormont . . . and to Jon Snow as well." Bronn seized Ser Alliser by the elbow and marched him forcefully from the hall.

Grand Maester Pycelle had already scuttled off, but Varys and Littlefinger had watched it all, start to finish. "I grow ever more admiring of you, my lord," confessed the eunuch. "You appease the Stark boy with his father's bones and strip your sister of her protectors in one swift stroke. You give that black brother the men he seeks, rid the city of some hungry mouths, yet make it all seem mockery so none may say that the dwarf fears snarks and grumkins. Oh, deftly done."

 

The biggest thing is that with everything LF and Varys know, it's impossible that they're not aware of the Others and all of the woohoo stuff going down. To some extent or other, I think both are more deeply tied into the magic side of things than they appear. Also, while clearly adversaries, both also tend to cover for the other, like in the case of LF's dagger ploy and other times, too. Are they not as adversarial as they appear? LF's ties to Braavos and by extension the FM also put magic on his radar. Varys says he hates magic and gives the story of being castrated, but with his propping up Aerys and Aegon, wanting him to hook up Dany and her magic dragons and being buds with the pyromancers, these expose this claimed hatred of magic as a lie. But the story of the voice was too specific. I don't believe the context of the story, but I believe that part totally.

Narratively, it's jarring for me that a story so centered on the Game of Thrones should just get shelved for some high-magic Others and dragons plot. It makes more sense and is more interesting to me if politics, power and magic are actually revealed to be intertwined to some degree.

As to Jon and his possible magical role in the story, it's *impossible* for me to believe Varys and LF don't know about him though I doubt either can prove it (LF's tapestries?). One of Varys' main jobs was tracking Rhaegar, and especially Rhaegar and Lyanna. The "always Cat" guy didn't follow up on Ned's mistress(es) and bastard(s) to try to get near Cat? Only if he did follow up and found the truth didn't help him.

[Lollygag]

7 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

You know? a few days ago I was about to write a post about this but didn't. 

In one instance moss is described as grey-green, and Bloodraven tells us that moss-green eyes mean the children of the forest have 'the gift'. He's also short and has no physical power, 'for every song must have it's balance'.

Nice catches!

You know, the moss in my area is a brighter green so I never made that connection. But I decided to look it up and found this:

ASOS Bran I

He nodded. It was hard to sulk with Meera. She was much more cheerful than her brother, and always seemed to know how to make him smile. Nothing ever scared her or made her angry. Well, except Jojen, sometimes . . . Jojen Reed could scare most anyone. He dressed all in green, his eyes were murky as moss, and he had green dreams. What Jojen dreamed came true. Except he dreamed me dead, and I'm not. Only he was, in a way.

Murky implies a more muted color and I see where Asha made reference to grey-green moss.

7 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

I also noted his obsession with Harrenhall, specifically how he 'gets' it three times: first he gives it to Janos as a reward for doing his job, then Tyrion offers it to him, then he asks for it after he successfully makes the deal with the Tyrells.

Also, Dontos contacts Sansa after Tyrion offers Harrenhall to LF, but then Tyrion goes back on the offer. Then Dontos does nothing until LF is rewarded with Harrenhall. 

I didn't even notice these! Three times seems significant. There's genie imagery around Maggy the Frog as Cersei must rub the lamp so to speak 3 times and gets three questions about her wishes which end up being cursed. Harrenhal is cursed. Don't know if it means anything.

7 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Now for the weird stuff:

Baelish is a way of saying Bael like, is Littlefinger Bael-like?

Well, he's a trickster and he does steal the Lord of Winterfell's daughter. A thing Rhaegar also did, while being a bard, and connected with Harrenhall. So, is there a weird prophecy Rhaegar and Baelish where trying to fulfill?

Let's also keep in mind that Bran and Jojen where visited by the Three-Eyed Crow when they where near death, and LF was near death after his duel with Brandon. Is it possible he was visited?

 

Lastly, this two quotes:

In the latter case, it's obvious that Euron is sending dreams to Aeron, is Littlefinger doing the same in the first case?

I definitely think he's Bael-like. LF's breath is always sweet (minty) and singers are all liars thought they have their own truth in a way. Sweet in ASOIAF is very often associated with sickness deceit, pretense, lies, and at times, death (Sweet Robin is hardly anything sweet). There's also a lot of Lann the Clever stuff around LF, too though I'm doubtful he's a Lannister in any way.

I'm unsure if LF has any magic to him as I can't really find any evidence for this though it might be. I've considered that there may be something to the Stark kids all manifesting as magical and they may not be the only ones who were triggered in some way.

There are some obvious non-magical reasons why LF chose the mocking bird as a personal sigil, but if he has the greenseer eyes as is hinted, the 3EC, a song of ice and fire and LF being a bird who imitates (mocks) songs makes me wonder if there's more to it.

 

 

[CamiloRP]

29 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Nice catches!

Thanks! tho most of it I read in many different places I think, I just put it together

 

Quote

You know, the moss in my area is a brighter green so I never made that connection. But I decided to look it up and found this:

ASOS Bran I

He nodded. It was hard to sulk with Meera. She was much more cheerful than her brother, and always seemed to know how to make him smile. Nothing ever scared her or made her angry. Well, except Jojen, sometimes . . . Jojen Reed could scare most anyone. He dressed all in green, his eyes were murky as moss, and he had green dreams. What Jojen dreamed came true. Except he dreamed me dead, and I'm not. Only he was, in a way.

Murky implies a more muted color and I see where Asha made reference to grey-green moss.

Nice!! 

Here's the quote just in case:

Quote

The Old Way. Asha turned away, chains clinking faintly. On the third day the forest pressed close around them, and the rutted roads dwindled down to game trails that soon proved to be too narrow for their larger wagons. Here and there they wound their way past familiar landmarks: a stony hill that looked a bit like a wolf's head when seen from a certain angle, a half-frozen waterfall, a natural stone arch bearded with grey-green moss. Asha knew them all. She had come this way before, riding to Winterfell to persuade her brother Theon to abandon his conquest and return with her to the safety of Deepwood Motte. I failed in that as well.

ADWD The King's Prize.

 

Quote

I didn't even notice these! Three times seems significant. There's genie imagery around Maggy the Frog as Cersei must rub the lamp so to speak 3 times and gets three questions about her wishes which end up being cursed. Harrenhal is cursed. Don't know if it means anything.

Haven't thought about the significance of three times here. Maybe it's just a joke "third time's the charm"

 

Quote

I definitely think he's Bael-like. LF's breath is always sweet (minty) and singers are all liars thought they have their own truth in a way. Sweet in ASOIAF is very often associated with sickness deceit, pretense, lies, and at times, death (Sweet Robin is hardly anything sweet). There's also a lot of Lann the Clever stuff around LF, too though I'm doubtful he's a Lannister in any way.

I'm unsure if LF has any magic to him as I can't really find any evidence for this though it might be. I've considered that there may be something to the Stark kids all manifesting as magical and they may not be the only ones who were triggered in some way.

There are some obvious non-magical reasons why LF chose the mocking bird as a personal sigil, but if he has the greenseer eyes as is hinted, the 3EC, a song of ice and fire and LF being a bird who imitates (mocks) songs makes me wonder if there's more to it.

I'm actually prone to say he has no magic, but Ned's dream keeps calling to me. 

There's also the question of who sent the catspaw after Bran, and I think LF is a likely candidate, but for him to do that he would need a glass candle or something like that. Tho I like Mance better as a suspect.

 

 

 

 

[kissdbyfire]

19 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

There's also the question of who sent the catspaw after Bran, and I think LF is a likely candidate, but for him to do that he would need a glass candle or something like that. Tho I like Mance better as a suspect.

That mystery has been solved already though, and Martin is on the record about it. He doesn’t spell Joffrey’s name out, because back then it hadn’t been officially solved (before Storm was published). But what he does say is enough IMO. Especially when we take into consideration that in ASoS we get Tyrion thinking the whole thing through, and nothing that contradicts it afterwards. 

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/1999/09/

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1082

[Lollygag]

43 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Haven't thought about the significance of three times here. Maybe it's just a joke "third time's the charm"

That's entirely possible, even likely.

43 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

I'm actually prone to say he has no magic, but Ned's dream keeps calling to me. 

There's also the question of who sent the catspaw after Bran, and I think LF is a likely candidate, but for him to do that he would need a glass candle or something like that. Tho I like Mance better as a suspect.

Me too on all of this.

To @kissdbyfire 's post, Joff did it, but the books all but scream out that Joff's too stupid to pull this off and while we get all of the details spelled out about Jon Arryn's death in a satisfying way, Tyrion and Jaime never fill in the pieces and only raise further questions. My only conclusion is that Mance orchestrated this and used Joff and GRRM is being vague because Mance's involvement is spoilery for future books.

Basically, Mance overhears Joff complaining about Bran and Summer as we see Tyrion accidentally overhear him in Tyrion I. Mance has Joff steal an obvious and recognizable weapon and get the silver while Mance lays out the plans and arranges everything - something he could do but is unbelievable from an idiot kid like Joff who knows nothing about Winterfell or the people there. Mance tells the catspaw that no one would be there knowing Cat would be to make sure the attack failed. He was the one who opened the doors for Summer (no opposable thumbs and no reports of Summer breaking through a series of very heavy wood doors) as Mance would recognize Bran as a warg and to make sure Cat wasn't overpowered by the catspaw. Mance's goal of setting up a war between the Starks and Lannisters to get Ned away from the Wall for when Mance wanted to come across was accomplished.

[kissdbyfire]

19 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Basically, Mance overhears Joff complaining about Bran and Summer as we see Tyrion accidentally overhear him in Tyrion I. Mance has Joff steal an obvious and recognizable weapon and get the silver while Mance lays out the plans and arranges everything - something he could do but is unbelievable from an idiot kid like Joff who knows nothing about Winterfell or the people there. Mance tells the catspaw that no one would be there knowing Cat would be to make sure the attack failed. He was the one who opened the doors for Summer (no opposable thumbs and no reports of Summer breaking through a series of very heavy wood doors) as Mance would recognize Bran as a warg and to make sure Cat wasn't overpowered by the catspaw. Mance's goal of setting up a war between the Starks and Lannisters to get Ned away from the Wall for when Mance wanted to come across was accomplished.

But he couldn’t have known Cat would defo be there. He also couldn’t have known for sure she wouldn’t die. He couldn’t be sure he’d be able to open the door for Summer. He couldn’t be sure of what Ned would or wouldn’t do. It also doesn’t make sense for Mance to think troubles w/ the Lannisters would make Ned go south instead of staying put, which would be much more logical imo. Lastly, if Mance did it, then why not ensure that the Lannisters are blamed for it somehow? 

[Lollygag]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

But he couldn’t have known Cat would defo be there. He also couldn’t have known for sure she wouldn’t die. He couldn’t be sure he’d be able to open the door for Summer. He couldn’t be sure of what Ned would or wouldn’t do. It also doesn’t make sense for Mance to think troubles w/ the Lannisters would make Ned go south instead of staying put, which would be much more logical imo. Lastly, if Mance did it, then why not ensure that the Lannisters are blamed for it somehow? 

No, he couldn't know any of these for sure but he could be reasonably certain given Cat never left his side. He did ensure the Lannisters were blamed - because that's where the suspicion would automatically land given the smallest proof as you could eliminate Robert and Valyrian steel eliminated most everyone else. That's what LF knew and why his dagger story worked on Ned and Cat. Ned wouldn't be able to resist going after the Lannisters, especially believing they tried to kill Bran. It's Westeros' revenge culture and just human nature. We saw this when Ned was sitting the IT in place of Robert and went full on after Tywin cause he hated him and was ticked off even though it wasn't the smartest move.

Did Mance want Cat and Bran dead? Nope. But he'd risk them before his own people. Ned needed to be gone if they were to cross the Wall. Ideally with most of the North's forces if things went in Mance's favor.

The not being entirely sure and being no certainties is part of the game. It's literally called a game. GRRM told us as much.

AFFC Alayne I

The mention of the queen's name made her stiffen. "She's not kind. She scares me. If she should learn where I am—"

"—I might have to remove her from the game sooner than I'd planned. Provided she does not remove herself first." Petyr teased her with a little smile. "In the game of thrones, even the humblest pieces can have wills of their own. Sometimes they refuse to make the moves you've planned for them. Mark that well, Alayne. It's a lesson that Cersei Lannister still has yet to learn. Now, don't you have some duties to perform?"

 

 

[sweetsunray]

47 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Basically, Mance overhears Joff complaining about Bran and Summer as we see Tyrion accidentally overhear him in Tyrion I. Mance has Joff steal an obvious and recognizable weapon and get the silver while Mance lays out the plans and arranges everything - something he could do but is unbelievable from an idiot kid like Joff who knows nothing about Winterfell or the people there. Mance tells the catspaw that no one would be there knowing Cat would be to make sure the attack failed. He was the one who opened the doors for Summer (no opposable thumbs and no reports of Summer breaking through a series of very heavy wood doors) as Mance would recognize Bran as a warg and to make sure Cat wasn't overpowered by the catspaw. Mance's goal of setting up a war between the Starks and Lannisters to get Ned away from the Wall for when Mance wanted to come across was accomplished.

Kudoz for the effort to try to tie this together, but it all falls apart on the fact that Ned Stark was already going South. There is absolutely no need for Mance to set up an assassination plot onto Bran's life in order to make sure Ned Stark goes south. In fact, if Cat had sent a speedy courrier after Ned after the assassination, that courrier would have reached Ned shortly after crossing the Neck and he would have turned back and go straight back to WF. As @kissdbyfire mentioned - there are too many unreliable vectors and unknown outcomes of such a plot. That's why it makes sense it was handled by a stupid kid like Joffrey.

I agree it makes sense for Mance to want Ned Stark to be far down South by the time he intends to breach the Wall, so Ned could not come to the NW's aid. But he did not have to do anything to make that happen. He went to WF, learned of Ned's appointment as Hand and intention to go South, and all he had to do at this point is thank the Old Gods for so much luck.

[Lollygag]

17 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Kudoz for the effort to try to tie this together, but it all falls apart on the fact that Ned Stark was already going South. There is absolutely no need for Mance to set up an assassination plot onto Bran's life in order to make sure Ned Stark goes south. In fact, if Cat had sent a speedy courrier after Ned after the assassination, that courrier would have reached Ned shortly after crossing the Neck and he would have turned back and go straight back to WF. It makes sense for Mance to want Ned Stark to be far down South by the time he intends to breach the Wall, so Ned could not come to the NW's aid. But he did not have to do anything to make that happen. He went to WF, learned of Ned's appointment as Hand and intention to go South, and thanked the Old Gods for so much luck.

Without a war or the prospect of one against Tywin and perhaps the IT itself, Robb could just mobilize forces at the Wall in Ned's stead with other Northern families. Robb was a kid, but the other heads of houses are seasoned warrior generals. Ned wasn't ever going to defend the Wall by himself.

The Lannisters got Ned's goat, but in the end Ned stayed in KL after the attempt on Bran because he feared the attempt on Bran was about the Lannisters making a move on the IT via Jon Arryn, Bran/Starks, and eventually Robert. Mance was in the NW at this time so he likely was aware of Ned, Jon and Robert and the thing with the Lannisters and the Rebellion and we know he's been looking for ways across the Wall and would be aware of these things because he's not an idiot.

AGOT Bran VI

He was awfully big, Bran thought as he watched him go. "Are there truly giants beyond the Wall?" he asked Osha, uncertainly.

"Giants and worse than giants, Lordling. I tried to tell your brother when he asked his questions, him and your maester and that smiley boy Greyjoy. The cold winds are rising, and men go out from their fires and never come back … or if they do, they're not men no more, but only wights, with blue eyes and cold black hands. Why do you think I run south with Stiv and Hali and the rest of them fools? Mance thinks he'll fight, the brave sweet stubborn man, like the white walkers were no more than rangers, but what does he know? He can call himself King-beyond-the-Wall all he likes, but he's still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower. He's never tasted winter. I was born up there, child, like my mother and her mother before her and her mother before her, born of the Free Folk. We remember." Osha stood, her chains rattling together. "I tried to tell your lordling brother. Only yesterday, when I saw him in the yard. 'M'lord Stark,' I called to him, respectful as you please, but he looked through me, and that sweaty oaf Greatjon Umber shoves me out of the path. So be it. I'll wear my irons and hold my tongue. A man who won't listen can't hear."

"Tell me. Robb will listen to me, I know he will."

"Will he now? We'll see. You tell him this, m'lord. You tell him he's bound on marching the wrong way. It's north he should be taking his swords. North, not south. You hear me?"

Bran nodded. "I'll tell him."

But that night, when they feasted in the Great Hall, Robb was not with them. He took his meal in the solar instead, with Lord Rickard and the Greatjon and the other lords bannermen, to make the final plans for the long march to come.

 

 

[CamiloRP]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

That mystery has been solved already though, and Martin is on the record about it. He doesn’t spell Joffrey’s name out, because back then it hadn’t been officially solved (before Storm was published). But what he does say is enough IMO. Especially when we take into consideration that in ASoS we get Tyrion thinking the whole thing through, and nothing that contradicts it afterwards. 

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/1999/09/

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1082

A character's guess is not hard confirmation tho, and I know about George saying it would be solved, but still there are many wholes in Tyrions story:

He remembers Joffrey saying "send a dog to kill a wolf" yet Joffrey said "send a dog (Clegane, not a catspaw) to kill a dog (Summer, not Bran)"

Tyrion also thinks that Joff wouldn't ask Sandor to do it, but Clegane had offered to kill Summer, so it's not far fetched that he would accept Joffrey's request, and he showed worry at Bran's suffering. In my opinion, if Joff had asked, Clegane would have done it.

Then Tyrion claims Joff searched for a killer amongst the camp followers. How would he do that unnoticed? How would he know how to find a trustworthy hitman? 

Then he thinks Joff is cunning enough to ask for the catspaw to wait a few days, yet he was stupid enough to provide him with a dagger that could be traced back to him. Did the hitman not have a dagger? could he not have used his hands or a sharpened stick?

The catspaw was already payed, so why would he still murder the son of the lord of Winterfell instead of going away with the money? he's an incredibly dedicated hitman, sleeping in the stabled for eight days, then burning the library to create a distraction and then attacking Bran when he has nothing to gain from it. Then he decides to kill Cat, despite the fact that the mission he was given was the mercy killing of an "already dead" boy, not the murder of a noble lady. How did Joff find such a loyal and hardworking assassin amongst the camp followers without being discovered?

Then Tyrion goes from Joff knowing valiryan steel (the thing that made him suspect him) to not knowing it so he chooses a plain dagger, which still the assassin would have no use for.

Then Tyrion claims Joff was vicious to do such a thing, yet to most Westerosi that wouldn't be vicious, it would be mercy, and Joff viciousness shows when he doesn't care about Bran's suffering.

Then Tyrion thinks Joff knows that he knows Joff sent the assassin, yet he thinks Joffrey didn't know the dagger was valiryan steel, so how would he know?

Then there's the fact that Tyrion doesn't have a motive for Joffrey to kill Bran, yet Jaimie does, but I think it's also not a good explanation: he thinks he did it for a pat on the head from Robert.

But the last time Joff killed something for Robert he beat him so hard Stannis thought he might kill him, why would he try such a thing again? Would he boast to Robert afterwards? that doesn't seem right.

[Lollygag]

11 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

A character's guess is not hard confirmation tho, and I know about George saying it would be solved, but still there are many wholes in Tyrions story:

He remembers Joffrey saying "send a dog to kill a wolf" yet Joffrey said "send a dog (Clegane, not a catspaw) to kill a dog (Summer, not Bran)"

Tyrion also thinks that Joff wouldn't ask Sandor to do it, but Clegane had offered to kill Summer, so it's not far fetched that he would accept Joffrey's request, and he showed worry at Bran's suffering. In my opinion, if Joff had asked, Clegane would have done it.

Then Tyrion claims Joff searched for a killer amongst the camp followers. How would he do that unnoticed? How would he know how to find a trustworthy hitman? 

Then he thinks Joff is cunning enough to ask for the catspaw to wait a few days, yet he was stupid enough to provide him with a dagger that could be traced back to him. Did the hitman not have a dagger? could he not have used his hands or a sharpened stick?

The catspaw was already payed, so why would he still murder the son of the lord of Winterfell instead of going away with the money? he's an incredibly dedicated hitman, sleeping in the stabled for eight days, then burning the library to create a distraction and then attacking Bran when he has nothing to gain from it. Then he decides to kill Cat, despite the fact that the mission he was given was the mercy killing of an "already dead" boy, not the murder of a noble lady. How did Joff find such a loyal and hardworking assassin amongst the camp followers without being discovered?

Then Tyrion goes from Joff knowing valiryan steel (the thing that made him suspect him) to not knowing it so he chooses a plain dagger, which still the assassin would have no use for.

Then Tyrion claims Joff was vicious to do such a thing, yet to most Westerosi that wouldn't be vicious, it would be mercy, and Joff viciousness shows when he doesn't care about Bran's suffering.

Then Tyrion thinks Joff knows that he knows Joff sent the assassin, yet he thinks Joffrey didn't know the dagger was valiryan steel, so how would he know?

Then there's the fact that Tyrion doesn't have a motive for Joffrey to kill Bran, yet Jaimie does, but I think it's also not a good explanation: he thinks he did it for a pat on the head from Robert.

But the last time Joff killed something for Robert he beat him so hard Stannis thought he might kill him, why would he try such a thing again? Would he boast to Robert afterwards? that doesn't seem right.

Yeah, GRRM has Tyrion and Jaime theorize about how Joff did it and why (my guess as to why is to spite Tyrion who defended Bran and Joff like a coward goes after the easy target who reminds him of the target he won't take on) and then undercuts those reasons with other text leaving the issue unresolved.

We were told that Jaime's guess that it was for Robert's approval is wrong. We repeatedly hear about how Robert didn't pay any attention to Joff other than beat him silly on occasion and for Joff's part:

ACOK Sansa I

"I am sorry for your loss as well, Joffrey," the dwarf said.

"What loss?"

"Your royal father? A large fierce man with a black beard; you'll recall him if you try. He was king before you."

"Oh, him. Yes, it was very sad, a boar killed him."

 

[CamiloRP]

@sweetsunray @Lollygag @kissdbyfire My two cents on all of this:

The attempted murder of Bran plays really well into the hands of Mance and Petyr, it's the prime cause of the Stark-Lannister hate, which is one of the prime causes of the war. LF wants to cause war, I assume we all agree in this, and Mance needs it aswell, The Wall is seriously unmanned, so the Freefolk could pass through, but after that they would definitely be smashed by the armies of The North, like they have been in the past, so a war that spends most of The North's armies is perfect for Mance.

Petyr has a man in Winterfell (the one who leaves the Myrish lens for Lewin) and him being the assassin would explain why he was so dedicated to the work. Also the dagger allows LF to be of use to Ned and gain his trust. The only problem with this is the communication, could LF send a raven spelling the plan to his man? probably not, that's why I brought it up with regards to magic.

Mance is in Winterfell. He even has a bag of silver, same as the assassin. But would he really take all the trouble of crossing The Wall, risking being captured or killed, just to look at some people? he's in the middle of planning a war, he's needed elsewhere, this is an unnecessary risk when he's desperately needed, and it also takes a lot of time, time he could spend planning his war. But maybe he figured it would be an excellent opportunity to cause chaos and make his invasion easier. Also Mance has an extra motive for killing Bran, as it's what would be done in the Freefolk culture. So Mance stole a dagger from Robert to frame him or his companions and send one of the free riders he was traveling with, or maybe a fellow man from north of The Wall who traveled with him, to do the killing, the assassin even sounds like Val when he says "it's a mercy, he's dead already". The problem with this is, in my opinion, that Mance also found a really dedicated assassin who go the extra mile despite already having been payed, or that he gave bag of silver to one of his men for no reason.

[Springwatch]

10 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Yeah, GRRM has Tyrion and Jaime theorize about how Joff did it and why (my guess as to why is to spite Tyrion who defended Bran and Joff like a coward goes after the easy target who reminds him of the target he won't take on) and then undercuts those reasons with other text leaving the issue unresolved.

We were told that Jaime's guess that it was for Robert's approval is wrong. We repeatedly hear about how Robert didn't pay any attention to Joff other than beat him silly on occasion and for Joff's part:

ACOK Sansa I

"I am sorry for your loss as well, Joffrey," the dwarf said.

"What loss?"

"Your royal father? A large fierce man with a black beard; you'll recall him if you try. He was king before you."

"Oh, him. Yes, it was very sad, a boar killed him."

Yes. But there was also that interesting moment when Joff mocks Tywin, saying his dad was a better man. There is something there.

[kissdbyfire]

11 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

@sweetsunray @Lollygag @kissdbyfire My two cents on all of this:

The attempted murder of Bran plays really well into the hands of Mance and Petyr,

Depending on how you look at it, one could argue that it plays really well for any number of characters. 

11 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

it's the prime cause of the Stark-Lannister hate, which is one of the prime causes of the war.

From what we are shown in the text, Ned has disliked and mistrusted the Lannisters for a very long time. 

11 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

LF wants to cause war, I assume we all agree in this, and Mance needs it aswell, The Wall is seriously unmanned, so the Freefolk could pass through, but after that they would definitely be smashed by the armies of The North, like they have been in the past, so a war that spends most of The North's armies is perfect for Mance.

Littlefinger benefits from war, sure. And yes, it can be argued that it is in Mance’s interest as well. That said, this alleged plan of Mance’s has too many moving parts, too many variables, and Mance is not stupid. So I really don’t see him planning something like this. 

11 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Petyr has a man in Winterfell (the one who leaves the Myrish lens for Lewin) and him being the assassin would explain why he was so dedicated to the work.
 

Why would it explain the man being “so dedicated to the work”? 

11 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Also the dagger allows LF to be of use to Ned and gain his trust. The only problem with this is the communication, could LF send a raven spelling the plan to his man? probably not, that's why I brought it up with regards to magic.

No, that isn’t the only problem. IMO. Again, there’s too many variables and Littlefinger is many things, but he isn’t stupid. For instance, he can’t be sure the dagger will allow him to gain Ned’s trust. And no, he wouldn’t be able to communicate via raven without others knowing. And as far as I can tell there’s nothing in the text suggesting Littlefinger has any type of magical ability. Yes, it’s been proposed many times over the years, but that alone proves nothing. IMO this type of “theory” pops up for different reasons. 

1. readers who aren’t satisfied by something, like, the solution/explanation for a mystery, and feel there simply must be more to it. And sometimes, even most times, there isn’t. Martin very often doesn’t give full and detailed answers, and that leaves room for readers to question the solutions given in the text. But that doesn’t mean anything other than some readers want more details; doesn’t mean they’re going to get any imo. In the case of the assassination attempt on Bran, I think there’s a fair chance we won’t get anything more than we already have.

2. readers have an idea that doesn’t quite work based on the info in the text, but this idea “*could* work if“. In this case, for this to work, Littlefinger must have magical abilities, so let’s start looking for something that supports it. So, it’s sort of doing it in reverse. Instead of finding clues and hints, and trying to work out the solution from those, people “find” a solution and start looking for clues to support it.

11 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Mance is in Winterfell. He even has a bag of silver, same as the assassin. But would he really take all the trouble of crossing The Wall, risking being captured or killed, just to look at some people? he's in the middle of planning a war, he's needed elsewhere, this is an unnecessary risk when he's desperately needed, and it also takes a lot of time, time he could spend planning his war. But maybe he figured it would be an excellent opportunity to cause chaos and make his invasion easier.

Do you realise all these points can be used to argue against Mance being behind the attempt on Bran’s life? The risks, the amount of time, the fact that he’s needed elsewhere, etc. To the bold: how did he figure it out? 

11 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Also Mance has an extra motive for killing Bran, as it's what would be done in the Freefolk culture.

Huh? I have no idea what you mean here.

11 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

So Mance stole a dagger from Robert to frame him or his companions and send one of the free riders he was traveling with, or maybe a fellow man from north of The Wall who traveled with him, to do the killing, the assassin even sounds like Val when he says "it's a mercy, he's dead already".
 

Hmmm. That’s exactly what Jaime says.

AGoT, Tyrion I

"He will if Robert commands it," Tyrion said. "And Robert will command it. There is nothing Lord Eddard can do for the boy in any case."

"He could end his torment," Jaime said. "I would, if it were my son. It would be a mercy."

"I advise against putting that suggestion to Lord Eddard, sweet brother," Tyrion said. "He would not take it kindly."

 

11 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

The problem with this is, in my opinion, that Mance also found a really dedicated assassin who go the extra mile despite already having been payed, or that he gave bag of silver to one of his men for no reason.

I don’t know what you mean here. 

[CamiloRP]

42 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Depending on how you look at it, one could argue that it plays really well for any number of characters. 

I agree.

 

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From what we are shown in the text, Ned has disliked and mistrusted the Lannisters for a very long time. 

Also yes, but Bran's attempted killing changes things for the worse, he even cites it to LF as a reason to not settle for peace with the Lannister.

 

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Littlefinger benefits from war, sure. And yes, it can be argued that it is in Mance’s interest as well. That said, this alleged plan of Mance’s has too many moving parts, too many variables, and Mance is not stupid. So I really don’t see him planning something like this. 

Why? It'd be the same as he did, only he would travel south of The Wall with a purpose, to find a ay to cause a war.

 

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Why would it explain the man being “so dedicated to the work”? 

Because if he was a LF he would be more than just a paid assassin found amongst the camp followers. It'd be someone whom LF trust to a certain degree, enough to leave that letter to Cat. Such a person is not likely to run away with your money before doing the deed, and is more likely to go the extra mile, as he will continue to work for LF, put this way, Steelshanks would be more dedicated to orders from Roose than a random catspaw.

 

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No, that isn’t the only problem. IMO. Again, there’s too many variables and Littlefinger is many things, but he isn’t stupid. For instance, he can’t be sure the dagger will allow him to gain Ned’s trust. And no, he wouldn’t be able to communicate via raven without others knowing. And as far as I can tell there’s nothing in the text suggesting Littlefinger has any type of magical ability. Yes, it’s been proposed many times over the years, but that alone proves nothing. IMO this type of “theory” pops up for different reasons. 

He can't be sure that it will, but he can't use it to try, and even if it doesn't it's still creates conflict within Starks and Lannisters, and he wants that.

With regards of LF having magical powers, I'm not even kinda sure about that, but there are some hints, like I stated in the message that started all of this, specially Ned's dream. Now, do this hints definitely mena anything? nope, not at all, but maybe.

 

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1. readers who aren’t satisfied by something, like, the solution/explanation for a mystery, and feel there simply must be more to it. And sometimes, even most times, there isn’t. Martin very often doesn’t give full and detailed answers, and that leaves room for readers to question the solutions given in the text. But that doesn’t mean anything other than some readers want more details; doesn’t mean they’re going to get any imo. In the case of the assassination attempt on Bran, I think there’s a fair chance we won’t get anything more than we already have.

Yeah, this is always the first thing I think about. "maybe Geroge just made a mistake" has crossed my mind many times, but Tyrion's reasoning is just, so off.

 

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2. readers have an idea that doesn’t quite work based on the info in the text, but this idea “*could* work if“. In this case, for this to work, Littlefinger must have magical abilities, so let’s start looking for something that supports it. So, it’s sort of doing it in reverse. Instead of finding clues and hints, and trying to work out the solution from those, people “find” a solution and start looking for clues to support it.

I think the one who did it was Mance tho, I was just saying that if LF had magical abilities, that qouls counter the only hole I have for him not being the culprit.

 

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Do you realise all these points can be used to argue against Mance being behind the attempt on Bran’s life? The risks, the amount of time, the fact that he’s needed elsewhere, etc. To the bold: how did he figure it out? 

YEs, but it makes sense for him to take all that risk for something that would benefit him greatly, once the Freefolk cross The Wall, The North would stop them, they've done so in the past and Stannis did it with just 1K or so soldiers, so he needs to ensure The North enters a war and spends it's forces or take them south. It's a way better reason for all that risk and time lost that just wanting to look at some people.

I meant that he figured out having so many strangers in Winterfell would be a great opportunity to cause some war starting conflict, it's not a weird idea to have.

 

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Huh? I have no idea what you mean here.

Freefolk culture kills handicapped people, they see it as a mercy.

 

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Hmmm. That’s exactly what Jaime says.

AGoT, Tyrion I

"He will if Robert commands it," Tyrion said. "And Robert will command it. There is nothing Lord Eddard can do for the boy in any case."

"He could end his torment," Jaime said. "I would, if it were my son. It would be a mercy."

"I advise against putting that suggestion to Lord Eddard, sweet brother," Tyrion said. "He would not take it kindly."

 

"It is not always mortal in children."

"North of the Wall it is. Hemlock is a sure cure, but a pillow or a blade will work as well. If I had given birth to that poor child, I would have given her the gift of mercy long ago."

This was a Val that Jon had never seen before. "Princess Shireen is the queen's only child."

(snip)

I want the monster out of there. Him and his wet nurses. You cannot leave them in that same tower as the dead girl."

Jon shook her hand away. "She is not dead."

"She is. Her mother cannot see it. Nor you, it seems. Yet death is there." She walked away from him, stopped, turned back. "I brought you Tormund Giantsbane. Bring me my monster."

 

That's a better fit, she speaks both of mercy and of her being already dead, it's likely a common feeling amongst the Freefolk that killing a cripple is a mercy and that they are 'already dead'

 

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I don’t know what you mean here. 

Well, if Mance planned the whole thing there are two options for who the catspaw is:

- Either he's a camp follower whom Mance payed, which wouldn't explain his dedication.

- A Freefolk that traveled with Mance, which wouldn't explain the bag of silver, except that maybe Mance expected for him to be caught and he wanted to use the silver as further proof.

 

[sweetsunray]

14 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Without a war or the prospect of one against Tywin and perhaps the IT itself, Robb could just mobilize forces at the Wall in Ned's stead with other Northern families. Robb was a kid, but the other heads of houses are seasoned warrior generals. Ned wasn't ever going to defend the Wall by himself.

Warriors who fight amongst themselves who gets to lead.

And again, the "war" was not something that needed to be pushed by Mance by sending a catspaw to Bran. The Lannisters did that quite fine by themselves. Ned didn't really investigate Bran's catspaw incident in KL. He stumbled over evidence of Robert's bastards and Cersei's infedility and children being Jaime's. When he confronted her, he stated that Cersei and Jaime pushed Bran from the tower to make him fall, but the catspaw isn't even mentioned.

Even if Cat had not kidnapped Tyrion, Ned and Cersei were heading towards a clash over the heir of the throne, and Robert was going to die. Ned would have been thrown down in the dungeon, Tywin would have sent his dogs loose onto the Riverlands because it's closer than the North and easy pickings and he loves any excuse to send harsh messages (he never actually needed Cat's arrest of Tyrion for that... it was just the first opportunity for him to do so). And you still have Robb going south with an army, and Joffrey chopping off Ned's head.

All the catspaw really did was wake up Cat from her misery, appreciate the wolves, get her away from Winterfell, have Cat end up an agent to make Ned trust Littlefinger (but LF is capable of doing that without Cat just as well), and be the opportunity Tywin was itching for to push back against Tullies and Starks in power near the IT. Hell, Varys anticipated war between the allies for years.

[sweetsunray]

13 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

"It is not always mortal in children."

"North of the Wall it is. Hemlock is a sure cure, but a pillow or a blade will work as well. If I had given birth to that poor child, I would have given her the gift of mercy long ago."

This was a Val that Jon had never seen before. "Princess Shireen is the queen's only child."

(snip)

I want the monster out of there. Him and his wet nurses. You cannot leave them in that same tower as the dead girl."

Jon shook her hand away. "She is not dead."

"She is. Her mother cannot see it. Nor you, it seems. Yet death is there." She walked away from him, stopped, turned back. "I brought you Tormund Giantsbane. Bring me my monster."

 

That's a better fit, she speaks both of mercy and of her being already dead, it's likely a common feeling amongst the Freefolk that killing a cripple is a mercy and that they are 'already dead'

The big difference is that Val is speaking specifically about greyscale, which is infectuous. She's using 3 sets of arguments: 1) it's irresponsible towards other people who might get infected 2) Shyreen will die of it eventually 3) Val wants Gilly's baby far away from Shyreen. Falling from towers and lying in a coma isn't infectuous. That is not to say that "mercy killing" is not part of Free Folk culture (I imagine it would be), but it's also very much part of Westerosi culture south of the Wall: Jaime's comments in front of Cersei, Tyrion and 2 of his children, Cersei's thoughts and opinions on it to Tyrion, the innuendo between Joffrey and Sandor (no they were not just talking about putting down Summer), Cersei's claim that Robert made such a statement, Sandor teaching Arya how to mercy kill, Arya and the BwB mercy killing the prisoners in their cages at Stony Sept, Joffrey referring to Ned's beheading as a mercy (and his leg stinking and rotting).

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, CamiloRP said:

Yeah, this is always the first thing I think about. "maybe George just made a mistake" has crossed my mind many times, but Tyrion's reasoning is just, so off.

We have Tyrion's AND Jaime's reasoning. There are some oddities with it, sure. Imho Tyrion assumes and Cersei claims it was because of something Robert said. But we have Jaime saying it in front of Tommen and Myrcella, and Cersei was actually of the same opinion and spends the most time with Joffrey. Jaime believes Cersei on her word at the time when she "complains" Robert wished for it in front of Joffrey's hearing. But do us readers have any reason to believe Cersei on her word? Is it not possible that Cersei ended up planting the idea in Joffrey's head? She had the best motive to want Bran dead. She loves to "think aloud" and hint at people - like she hinted Jaime to hunt and kill Arya, and Sandor hunt and kill Mycah. She spends the most time with Joffrey otherwise. That's what is imo "off". But there's nothing off imo with an arrogant cruel kid of 12 believing he can "command" some guy to go kill Bran once they leave, and let the catspaw take his pick from the hundreds of hunted knives gifted to Robert with which he never hunts anyway. Stupid catspaw sees a VS dagger and wants it. The silver is extra. So, why catspaw and not Sandor? Well there's where Cersei comes in imo. She's bold, stupid, but also cunning enough. She knew Sandor would be out of the question.

IMHO, Joffrey complained to Cersei about the words he had with Tyrion, shortly after she left Tyrion and Jaime to themselves. When she learned of the reason of the argument "sending a dog to kill a dog", she realized she could manipulate Joffrey into sending someone to get rid of Bran for good, and defended Joffrey's opinion over Tyrion's, but mentioned somehow that it would be better to send a "cat(spaw)" to do the work than a known knight who's Joffrey's bodyguard. And Cersei suggested it all in such a way, that Joffrey felt it was his own brilliant plan. And then when Robert came to their private living quarters, she made sure to goad him into saying "It would be a mercy to just kill him".

Then when Jaime confronts Cersei about it, discussing Tyrion's potential motive, Cersei is confronted with the potential backlash of the catspaw attempt. As the convo continues and Jaime is not so easily persuaded to think of Tyrion as the monster, Cersei imo becomes more cautious on what she reveals regarding the catspaw, including projecting the wish onto Robert and how Robert was irresponsible by talking mercy-killing in front of Joffrey. It sounds too much like an easy scapegoat for Cersei and to deflect any suspicion of her. At this point she's not convinced Jaime would choose her over Tyrion. Revealing that she either supports Joffrey in this act or even instigated it via manipulation would make her lose Jaime's support, despite the fact that he was the hand who threw Bran from the tower. She can already sense that something is different about Jaime. 

[Back in Black-Snow]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

We have Tyrion's AND Jaime's reasoning. There are some oddities with it, sure. Imho Tyrion assumes and Cersei claims it was because of something Robert said. But we have Jaime saying it in front of Tommen and Myrcella, and Cersei was actually of the same opinion and spends the most time with Joffrey. Jaime believes Cersei on her word at the time when she "complains" Robert wished for it in front of Joffrey's hearing. But do us readers have any reason to believe Cersei on her word? Is it not possible that Cersei ended up planting the idea in Joffrey's head? She had the best motive to want Bran dead. She loves to "think aloud" and hint at people - like she hinted Jaime to hunt and kill Arya, and Sandor hunt and kill Mycah. She spends the most time with Joffrey otherwise. That's what is imo "off". But there's nothing off imo with an arrogant cruel kid of 12 believing he can "command" some guy to go kill Bran once they leave, and let the catspaw take his pick from the hundreds of hunted knives gifted to Robert with which he never hunts anyway. Stupid catspaw sees a VS dagger and wants it. The silver is extra. So, why catspaw and not Sandor? Well there's where Cersei comes in imo. She's bold, stupid, but also cunning enough. She knew Sandor would be out of the question.

IMHO, Joffrey complained to Cersei about the words he had with Tyrion, shortly after she left Tyrion and Jaime to themselves. When she learned of the reason of the argument "sending a dog to kill a dog", she realized she could manipulate Joffrey into sending someone to get rid of Bran for good, and defended Joffrey's opinion over Tyrion's, but mentioned somehow that it would be better to send a "cat(spaw)" to do the work than a known knight who's Joffrey's bodyguard. And Cersei suggested it all in such a way, that Joffrey felt it was his own brilliant plan. And then when Robert came to their private living quarters, she made sure to goad him into saying "It would be a mercy to just kill him".

Then when Jaime confronts Cersei about it, discussing Tyrion's potential motive, Cersei is confronted with the potential backlash of the catspaw attempt. As the convo continues and Jaime is not so easily persuaded to think of Tyrion as the monster, Cersei imo becomes more cautious on what she reveals regarding the catspaw, including projecting the wish onto Robert and how Robert was irresponsible by talking mercy-killing in front of Joffrey. It sounds too much like an easy scapegoat for Cersei and to deflect any suspicion of her. At this point she's not convinced Jaime would choose her over Tyrion. Revealing that she either supports Joffrey in this act or even instigated it via manipulation would make her lose Jaime's support, despite the fact that he was the hand who threw Bran from the tower. She can already sense that something is different about Jaime. 

This.

[CamiloRP]

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

The big difference is that Val is speaking specifically about greyscale, which is infectuous. She's using 3 sets of arguments: 1) it's irresponsible towards other people who might get infected 2) Shyreen will die of it eventually 3) Val wants Gilly's baby far away from Shyreen. Falling from towers and lying in a coma isn't infectuous. That is not to say that "mercy killing" is not part of Free Folk culture (I imagine it would be), but it's also very much part of Westerosi culture south of the Wall: Jaime's comments in front of Cersei, Tyrion and 2 of his children, Cersei's thoughts and opinions on it to Tyrion, the innuendo between Joffrey and Sandor (no they were not just talking about putting down Summer), Cersei's claim that Robert made such a statement, Sandor teaching Arya how to mercy kill, Arya and the BwB mercy killing the prisoners in their cages at Stony Sept, Joffrey referring to Ned's beheading as a mercy (and his leg stinking and rotting).

But when Robert talked about it he complained that Westerosi culture isn't 'strong' enough to be 'merciful' with crippled kids, so Westerosi culture isn't as prone to doing that as Freefolk culture is.

Yes, I get Val was talking about something else, but the sentiment of what she does say is remarkably similar to what the catspaw says. I don't want to get hanged up in this because it's by far the weakest of the points I made.

 

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

We have Tyrion's AND Jaime's reasoning.

Yeah, but both are completely corrupted, Tyrion starts the whole thing because of a 'clue' he then dismisses entirely, and he also makes a bunch of mistakes I noted above. Jaime attributes a motive to Joff that, IMHO, makes little sense, as the last time Joff attempted something similar he got beaten nearly to death. 

Also, in your explanation about why Jaime and Tyrion are right you disregard all of their arguments, as Tyrion's guesses (method, how he came up with the idea, and such) are different to yours and Jaime's motive is also different to the one you sugest.

 

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There are some oddities with it, sure. Imho Tyrion assumes and Cersei claims it was because of something Robert said. But we have Jaime saying it in front of Tommen and Myrcella

I don't understand what you're trying to say.

 

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and Cersei was actually of the same opinion and spends the most time with Joffrey. Jaime believes Cersei on her word at the time when she "complains" Robert wished for it in front of Joffrey's hearing. But do us readers have any reason to believe Cersei on her word? Is it not possible that Cersei ended up planting the idea in Joffrey's head? She had the best motive to want Bran dead. She loves to "think aloud" and hint at people - like she hinted Jaime to hunt and kill Arya, and Sandor hunt and kill Mycah. She spends the most time with Joffrey otherwise. That's what is imo "off".

TBH I like this idea very much, and the whole scene in which Jaime 'figures it out' does read like Cersei is scape goating, yet Cersei thought there was no reason for Jaime to kill Bran, and almost everyone believes he's going to die anyway. Also, why didn't she have Jaime do it? he would definitely do it, and he's more trustworthy than a mere camp follower, who can talk to anyone, be questioned, etc. 

 

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But there's nothing off imo with an arrogant cruel kid of 12 believing he can "command" some guy to go kill Bran once they leave,

But Joff was cruel because he didn't care about Bran suffering, trying to end his suffering would be a weird act of cruelty. And why would he do it? I get Cersei manipulated him, but what did he thought he had to win by doing it?

 

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and let the catspaw take his pick from the hundreds of hunted knives gifted to Robert with which he never hunts anyway. Stupid catspaw sees a VS dagger and wants it. The silver is extra.

So he let the catspaw enter Roberts room/cart/wherever he holds his knives? that's stupid. Also, what kind of stupid person would assume you have to provide an assassin with a knife? Any good assassin would have one, but also Bran is in a coma, he can be strangled, stab with a stick or his head could be smash with a rock, there was no need to provide a traceable knife, and no person with any amount of brain would do something like that. Like, I get Joff is not clever, but not even book one Sansa would do such a thing, not even Viserys.

 

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So, why catspaw and not Sandor? Well there's where Cersei comes in imo. She's bold, stupid, but also cunning enough. She knew Sandor would be out of the question.

Why would he be out of the question? he does whatever he's told, he offered to sneak up on Bran's room to kill Summer and he seems to empathize with Bran's suffering, likely thinking the correct thing to do is kill him.

 

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IMHO, Joffrey complained to Cersei about the words he had with Tyrion, shortly after she left Tyrion and Jaime to themselves. When she learned of the reason of the argument "sending a dog to kill a dog", she realized she could manipulate Joffrey into sending someone to get rid of Bran for good, and defended Joffrey's opinion over Tyrion's, but mentioned somehow that it would be better to send a "cat(spaw)" to do the work than a known knight who's Joffrey's bodyguard. And Cersei suggested it all in such a way, that Joffrey felt it was his own brilliant plan. And then when Robert came to their private living quarters, she made sure to goad him into saying "It would be a mercy to just kill him".

Then when Jaime confronts Cersei about it, discussing Tyrion's potential motive, Cersei is confronted with the potential backlash of the catspaw attempt. As the convo continues and Jaime is not so easily persuaded to think of Tyrion as the monster, Cersei imo becomes more cautious on what she reveals regarding the catspaw, including projecting the wish onto Robert and how Robert was irresponsible by talking mercy-killing in front of Joffrey. It sounds too much like an easy scapegoat for Cersei and to deflect any suspicion of her. At this point she's not convinced Jaime would choose her over Tyrion. Revealing that she either supports Joffrey in this act or even instigated it via manipulation would make her lose Jaime's support, despite the fact that he was the hand who threw Bran from the tower. She can already sense that something is different about Jaime.