US politics: 2 weeks notice

[Ran]

It definitely is sexist, using all the usual tropes of what used to be called "harridans", "shrews", and "viragos". One of the worst overused memes of our current moment, IMO.

Apparently, it seems like 538 has vanished the Trafalgar polls from their site. Not sure if the averages reflect this, or if they're going to keep them in place but not take them on going forward.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Don’t assume Trump loses.  If you haven’t voted get out and vote!

[Fez]

5 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

There is a term for male Karens. A Chad.

I don't think that's quite right. Chad much often seems like its used as a term of endearment; like all those "Virgin X vs. Chad Y" memes. And all the variations of "Look at that absolute unit. What a Chad."

[Relic]

6 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

There is a term for male Karens. A Chad.

"Chads" are what INCELS call "normies", or normal men, who get laid. In no way should you be using that word, and propagating their language. And yes, the Karen thing IS stupid, and potentially sexist, as well. 

[Heartofice]

I thought a Chad was like a Jock, basically the douchey guy that all the girls like and has no issues with getting laid and who's life is totally easy. The sort of guy Incels absolutely hate.. more than the women who reject them.. but aspire to be. 

[Maithanet]

Really good Biden polling this morning from UGA and CBS/Yougov. 
GA: Biden +0.3

WI: +9

PA: +8

MI: +10

That midwestern 3 is still holding strong for Biden.  It's looking more and more like Trump's strategy is to try and sweep the remaining swing states (FL, NC, GA, AZ, IA, OH and NE-2), accept the loss in WI and MI, and then challenge PA in court since they'll be so slow in counting the ballots that he'll probably still be ahead for several days post-election. 

Sweeping those states on the first list I made will be almost impossible if Biden is winning nationally by 7+ points, but if there's a small polling error in his favor, he could potentially win all of those by less than 2 points.

[A Prince of Dorne]

15 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

Anybody here think that adding Justices to the SC is a bad move if Dems somehow capture the presidency and Senate? 

I would rather prioritize statehood for DC and Puerto Rico. Addressing the rural tilt of the Senate will be a better long-term solution, so that future justices aren't always being confirmed (or not) by a right-wing Senate

[Fez]

18 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Sweeping those states on the first list I made will be almost impossible if Biden is winning nationally by 7+ points, but if there's a small polling error in his favor, he could potentially win all of those by less than 2 points.

If Biden really wins by even 6 points, I'm not sure its possible for him to actually only be at that 279-259 EC map. The swing states you list, plus Texas which is right there, have about 30% of the US population. If Biden is losing all of them, even if it's only by very little, can he really win the other 70% of the country by enough to have an overall 6 point national win?

Sure he could rack up margins in CA and NY, but there's plenty of mid-sized red states to counterbalance most of the other mid-sized blue states. I'm just not sure the math works out there. Even at 5 points it seems pretty dicey; 4 points or lower though, and yeah, I can see it.

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

If Biden really wins by even 6 points, I'm not sure its possible for him to actually only be at that 279-259 EC map. The swing states you list, plus Texas which is right there, have about 30% of the US population. If Biden is losing all of them, even if it's only by very little, can he really win the other 70% of the country by enough to have an overall 6 point national win?

Sure he could rack up margins in CA and NY, but there's plenty of mid-sized red states to counterbalance most of the other mid-sized blue states. I'm just not sure the math works out there. Even at 5 points it seems pretty dicey; 4 points or lower though, and yeah, I can see it.

It is unlikely that Trump could hold in case of a 5-6 point national loss, although who knows.  Right now he is up nationally by 9 and tied in TX, IA, GA, OH and 2-3 points up in FL, AZ, NC.  If polls are overestimating Biden by 3, then it seems quite possible that Trump sweeps those seven states, yes. 

Trump has been polling much worse (~10-15 points) in the deep red states like WV, SD, OK, NE, ID, MO.  It is very conceivable that he banks 30-50% less votes from them this year than 2016.  I haven't been paying much attention to Biden's margin vs Clinton's in blue states like CA, NY, IL, MD, MA, NJ, CT, etc, but I fully expect him to crush it. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

29 minutes ago, A Prince of Dorne said:

I would rather prioritize statehood for DC and Puerto Rico. Addressing the rural tilt of the Senate will be a better long-term solution, so that future justices aren't always being confirmed (or not) by a right-wing Senate

You can both add states and expand the courts at the same time.....

[Fragile Bird]

I was just talking to a friend who has family members who bought a house in Arizona so they could do the snowbird thing, moving south for the winter months.

Apparently some enterprising campaign worker has figured out which houses in the development they’re in are owned by Canadians and has loaded them up with Trump signs, figuring no one was going to show up to object.

[Maithanet]

Early vote update, 10/26:

Nationally - 60.1 million votes cast (44% of 2016 total)

Swing state votes, as percentage of 2016 votes cast:

Pennsylvania - 24%

Michigan - 41%

Wisconsin - 45%

Florida - 63%

Georgia - 66%

North Carolina - 67%

Arizona - 47%

Nevada - 59%

Texas - 82%

 

8 days left.  Swing states continue to outpace the nation as a whole, with only PA lagging behind.  Virtually guaranteed that more than half of the 2020 votes have been cast in FL, GA, NC, NV and TX. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Speaking of early voting:

Quote

Two Texas counties, Denton in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs and Williamson in the Austin suburbs, have now surpassed their total 2016 turnout with early voting, according to Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.

Those suburbs have been trending D in the past few years.

[Kalbear]

Early voting data suuuuuuuucks and is basically a rorschach test

 

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Didnt stop him from throwing in a paragraph about how 2020 results were worse than 2016 for the Democrats (edit: in North Carolina).

[Maithanet]

Early voting data can tell you something about voter turnout and nothing about voter preferences.  Until you know voter's preferences, you're never going to really know how an election is going.  However, getting a better picture of voter turnout can help you understand some aspects of the race.  For example, "low turnout" scenarios are basically off the table based on what we're seeing in TX, MT, GA, etc. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

I thought a Chad was like a Jock, basically the douchey guy that all the girls like and has no issues with getting laid and who's life is totally easy. The sort of guy Incels absolutely hate.. more than the women who reject them.. but aspire to be. 

Eh the incels hate the women the most.

They’re envious of ”chads” but their problem still lies with the fact most of the women they’d like to enslave.

Incels grievances aren't really about lack of access to sex.

If you have 70 or even 60 dollars it's not hard to find a prostitute.

 

[Heartofice]

6 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Eh the incels hate the women the most.

They’re envious of ”chads” but their problem still lies with the fact most of the women they’d like to enslave.

Incels grievances aren't really about lack of access to sex.

If you have 70 or even 60 dollars it's not hard to find a prostitute.

 

Lol, I'm not getting into a debate about who the incels hate the most! haha!

Anyway, its actually a bigger topic, but sure. ok.

[Kalbear]

13 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Didnt stop him from throwing in a paragraph about how 2020 results were worse than 2016 for the Democrats (edit: in North Carolina).

Yes! And the point is that no one knows if this matters! 

[IheartIheartTesla]

I'm still using the poll averages for the most part, and using early voting as maybe giving some inkling as to whether toss up states may be influenced by GOTV efforts. Based on the fraction of independent voters and cross-voters it is hard to make too many predictions is something everyone can agree on.