US Poll-itics

[Gaston de Foix]

9 minutes ago, Killjoybear said:

HEY GUYS DONT WORRY YOU SHOULD RESPECT THE SCOTUS DECISIONS AND PEOPLE BECAUSE THAT ONE TIME THEY DIDNT SUCK

 

No one is arguing that.  We are saying that there are no effective remedies to the Republican stacking of the Court, and that court packing will not work.  

Like much of Rehnquist's work what he said in the Bush v Gore concurrence was sophistic reasoning. Federal courts have to step in to police state courts when they decide what the state's election laws and constitutional protections mean?  Bullshit.  

Btw, Barrett is sending a message by having Thomas (the now senior associate justice) swear her in and not Roberts, her fellow Hoosier.   

[Fez]

12 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Don't think anyone here is under any illusions of what this court will do with no swing votes needed to maintain court appearances. The US is going back to a shittier time.

ETA: If you haven't voted, go vote. There will almost certainly be a ruling by the SCOTUS to stop counting ballots that haven't been counted by midnight on Nov 3rd. 

Not midnight, since that's before the polls even close in Alaska (or Hawaii, not that they'd care about that) and they might not those 3 EVs. But yeah, it's become much more important that Biden is winning states totaling at least 270 EVs by about 9am Nov. 4. State election officials better be ready to count overnight. Kavanugh is going blatant with the "flip" language in his concurrence (which Kagan rightly calls out in her dissent).

One good bit of news on that front, I've seen some election folks starting to say that Biden will likely be winning Arizona on election night regardless of what happens. Democrats got their mail-in votes in so quickly, and its Republicans lagging that likely need a late count to get to whatever the true. final margin is.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

No one is arguing that.  We are saying that there are no effective remedies to the Republican stacking of the Court, and that court packing will not work.  

Like much of Rehnquist's work what he said in the Bush v Gore concurrence was sophistic reasoning. Federal courts have to step in to police state courts when they decide what the state's election laws and constitutional protections mean?  Bullshit.  

Btw, Barrett is sending a message by having Thomas (the now senior associate justice) swear her in and not Roberts, her fellow Hoosier.   

Why not?

[Mindwalker]

Now these guys make me nervous, too!

Some poll and campaign analysis and outlook on election day, counting etc.

***

 

[Kalbear]

29 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Don't think anyone here is under any illusions of what this court will do with no swing votes needed to maintain court appearances. The US is going back to a shittier time.

ETA: If you haven't voted, go vote. There will almost certainly be a ruling by the SCOTUS to stop counting ballots that haven't been counted by midnight on Nov 3rd. 

I was literally told a few weeks ago that I needed to respect the court and not assume that they would make bad decisions because of reasons.

I am emphatically dunking on that bullshit. 

[Fragile Bird]

Welcome to Poland, comrades! Welcome to Poland!

[Mindwalker]

Any Avengers fans among us?

 

[Guest]

The White House looks like an idiot's idea of a dictatorship.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

The White House looks like an idiot's idea of a dictatorship.

Flag face tattoos?

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Flag face tattoos?

It's got what plants crave.

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Why not?

Yeah, what's the concern here?

It's fucked now.  If Dems pack it and Repubs answer back sometime down the road that's no worse off than we are right now.  Or maybe the reach some kind of ceasefire agreement and actually reform the process.

The only other alternative seems to be wait and hope it swings back to a more liberal composition, but I'm not sure what in history suggests that would ever happen.  The GOP has shown to be much more committed to getting the results they want here.  And then there's the rest of the federal judiciary that's been stacked.

Why won't court packing work?  It seems like the only option left.  

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Not midnight, since that's before the polls even close in Alaska (or Hawaii, not that they'd care about that) and they might not those 3 EVs. But yeah, it's become much more important that Biden is winning states totaling at least 270 EVs by about 9am Nov. 4. State election officials better be ready to count overnight. Kavanugh is going blatant with the "flip" language in his concurrence (which Kagan rightly calls out in her dissent).

Pennsylvania was allowing for ballots to be counted till Nov 6 if they were postmarked election day. Not sure how many that will end up being (well, we do have a way of estimating by looking at the difference between ballots requested and returned).

Edit: By the way, Nate Cohn just explained why 4 polls out of Texas had different outcomes (or at least 3 of them). They had the same margin for Trump in white voters (~63-30), but UT Tyler had Biden up among hispanics by 58 points, Siena by 23 and YouGov by 18.Tough to model turnout among that group, and to get them to answer surveys depending on where they reside.

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Yeah, what's the concern here?

It's fucked now.  If Dems pack it and Repubs answer back sometime down the road that's no worse off than we are right now.  Or maybe the reach some kind of ceasefire agreement and actually reform the process.

The only other alternative seems to be wait and hope it swings back to a more liberal composition, but I'm not sure what in history suggests that would ever happen.  The GOP has shown to be much more committed to getting the results they want here.  And then there's the rest of the federal judiciary that's been stacked.

Why won't court packing work?  It seems like the only option left.  

There's another alternative - assassination. 

If people don't want to change the laws or change the counts there has traditionally been one solution to serving for life terms. 

[Jace, Extat]

1 minute ago, Killjoybear said:

There's another alternative - assassination. 

If people don't want to change the laws or change the counts there has traditionally been one solution to serving for life terms. 

He's joking, my American friend is just joking!

But I also don't know him so well as to be guilty by association.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Well that took a dark turn. 

4 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Yeah, what's the concern here?

It's fucked now.  If Dems pack it and Repubs answer back sometime down the road that's no worse off than we are right now.  Or maybe the reach some kind of ceasefire agreement and actually reform the process.

The only other alternative seems to be wait and hope it swings back to a more liberal composition, but I'm not sure what in history suggests that would ever happen.  The GOP has shown to be much more committed to getting the results they want here.  And then there's the rest of the federal judiciary that's been stacked.

Why won't court packing work?  It seems like the only option left.  

I really don't want the courts to be packed, but face it, the Republicans have already done it. They played dirty, but within the letter of the law. Packing the courts, expanding the House and awarding statehood to D.C., Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands would just be doing that too.

And besides, fuck them. 

[Zorral]

4 minutes ago, Killjoybear said:

There's another alternative - assassination. 

Not as if the USA hasn't resorted to that mode many times.  And successfully.  But it was always assassination of the liberal and inclusive, not the crazy white supremacist howlers.

Theodore Roosevelt even, adored as he was by most of the country, barely survived the attempt by a guy who was saving the US from progressivism/socialism.  If that bullet hadn't been deflected a millimeter or so by hitting a rib it would have entered his heart.  It (along with many other injuries and chronic maladies such as malaria) nearly killed him as it was, and deflected his campaign severely.

 

[Fez]

18 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Pennsylvania was allowing for ballots to be counted till Nov 6 if they were postmarked election day. Not sure how many that will end up being (well, we do have a way of estimating by looking at the difference between ballots requested and returned).

That was the old 4-4 court; now there's a new and improved 5-4 court.

[Mexal]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

That was the old 4-4 court; now there's a new and improved 5-4 court.

And Kavanaugh signaled that SCOTUS has ability to override state supreme courts on federal election rulings.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, Mexal said:

And Kavanaugh signaled that SCOTUS has ability to override state supreme courts on federal election rulings.

Political hack is gonna political hack, amirite? 

[Mindwalker]

Classy, they are.