US Poll-itics

[DMC]

1 minute ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

In which case Trump would be a virtual lock since each state gets one vote and Republicans control more state delegations, even with a minority overall. What a way to run a country!

In terms of the numbers that's inarguable, but I don't even want to think about the shitshow this country would go through if this election got thrown to the House.  Especially if Biden wins the popular vote by, say, 3-4 percent.  Anyway, 2% likelihood is literally statistically insignificant, so wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

In terms of the numbers that's inarguable, but I don't even want to think about the shitshow this country would go through if this election got thrown to the House.  Especially if Biden wins the popular vote by, say, 3-4 percent.  Anyway, 2% likelihood is literally statistically insignificant, so wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

I know it's exceedingly unlikely, I just never tire of pointing out the inanities of our venerated Constitution.

[IheartIheartTesla]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

A loss in PA isnt the end of it for Biden, but he's have to hold on to other Midwest states (which are somewhat correlated to PA), maybe grab AZ etc...

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 hours ago, DMC said:

If we're talking Roberts' general inclinations towards voting rights cases in the longterm I'd agree.  But not when it comes to controversial cases that threaten the court's legitimacy after next Tuesday.

The courts are illegitimate already. And Kal is right to some degree. Now that he's not the swing vote, he could very well rule with the conservative majority in ways he wouldn't beforehand on a 5-4 court.

1 hour ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

In which case Trump would be a virtual lock since each state gets one vote and Republicans control more state delegations, even with a minority overall. What a way to run a country!

Trends suggest this may only get worse with time. 

[Fez]

18 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The courts are illegitimate already. And Kal is right to some degree. Now that he's not the swing vote, he could very well rule with the conservative majority in ways he wouldn't beforehand on a 5-4 court.

Oh in most regular cases he'll almost always rule with the conservative majority no matter what his preference is; assuming he can't flip another judge with him. As Chief Justice, he always gets to assign who writes the majority opinion, so long as he's in the majority. By always ruling with the other conservatives, he can do a lot to ensure that they don't make rulings that go beyond what he's comfortable with. Of course, if he restrains them too much the other 5 could leave the opinion and make a new majority without him. So his power isn't infinite, but there's still quite a bit he can do.

But I think that's different from a blatantly illegal, unjustifiable coup next week.

[DMC]

21 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The courts are illegitimate already.

No, it's not.  Friends/colleagues that study court legitimacy would cringe at this gross simplification, but basically the Supreme Court's legitimacy is based on public approval.  In that regard, it's actually doing better now than it has in a decade, or at least was before Ginsburg died. 

Anyway, I don't really care where Roberts is in general in the future - and of course he's not the swing vote.  Reason I responded is to point out that it's quite possible that he'd be the 4th vote with liberals on any controversial election challenges.  Getting the fifth vote, which I think would have to be Gorsuch, is much more worrisome.

[Relic]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

A loss in PA isnt the end of it for Biden, but he's have to hold on to other Midwest states (which are somewhat correlated to PA), maybe grab AZ etc...

I dunno how anyone here can feel confident of a Biden victory knowing the above that the above is true...

[IheartIheartTesla]

Well, the way I reassure myself is by noting his lead in the polls is now about 9-9.5 points and hasnt shown much reduction. I know PA leans redder than the nation, but it cant be 9 points off (even if the national polls end up at 7.5, this reasoning still holds for that margin, I believe).

If indeed many of the battleground states can withstand such a large national lead and yet go for Trump, then the EC is even more f*cked than I thought.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

36 minutes ago, Fez said:

Oh in most regular cases he'll almost always rule with the conservative majority no matter what his preference is; assuming he can't flip another judge with him. As Chief Justice, he always gets to assign who writes the majority opinion, so long as he's in the majority. By always ruling with the other conservatives, he can do a lot to ensure that they don't make rulings that go beyond what he's comfortable with. Of course, if he restrains them too much the other 5 could leave the opinion and make a new majority without him. So his power isn't infinite, but there's still quite a bit he can do.

But I think that's different from a blatantly illegal, unjustifiable coup next week.

But as you said, if the other five just tell him to kick rocks, there isn't much he can do, and four of the five probably can't wait to do so. Hanging your hopes on Gorsuch is not a great place to be.

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Relic said:

I dunno how anyone here can feel confident of a Biden victory knowing the above that the above is true...

It's actually pretty easy if you applied a veil of ignorance to the 2016 election and all the polling trauma therein.  I know at this time in 2012 I was very confident Obama was going to be reelected.  Now let's compare the final RCP averages in 2012 to the current averages today in the key states:

• PA:  Obama +3.8, Biden +4.5
• WI:  Obama +4.2, Biden +5.5
• MI:  Obama +4.0, Biden +9.0
• FL:  Romney +1.5, Biden +1.8
• NC:  Romney +3.0, Biden +1.2
• OH:  Obama +2.9, Trump +0.6
• AZ:  Romney +7.5, Biden +2.2
• US:  Obama +0.7, Biden +7.8

It's been mentioned on these threads frequently by many (myself included) that Biden is in a better position than Hillary was.  But it should also be emphasized he's in a much better position than Obama was in 2012.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

35 minutes ago, DMC said:

No, it's not.  Friends/colleagues that study court legitimacy would cringe at this gross simplification, but basically the Supreme Court's legitimacy is based on public approval.  In that regard, it's actually doing better now than it has in a decade, or at least was before Ginsburg died. 

Anyway, I don't really care where Roberts is in general in the future - and of course he's not the swing vote.  Reason I responded is to point out that it's quite possible that he'd be the 4th vote with liberals on any controversial election challenges.  Getting the fifth vote, which I think would have to be Gorsuch, is much more worrisome.

Well on the last part I agree. But no, I don't think it's an oversimplification. The courts lost a great deal of legitimacy when McConnell began to refuse filling lower court vacancies, and it all but died when he told a sitting president that he would not get to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court. 

[Ran]

I feel confident in saying is that the only way Biden loses is:

1) Massive systemic polling error

2) Election theft on a scale unheard of since Bush v. Gore, involving not just one state but multiple states.

3) He drops dead in the next few days.

[IheartIheartTesla]

I remember 2012 very well too, I was so confident Obama was going to win that I noted to friends just before that he'd either get 305 or 333 EV depending on how FL ended up.

The 2016 results has thrown a shadow on all that for sure. Even with Biden up in FL (by ~2) for instance, I am not at all confident he will carry the state

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

But no, I don't think it's an oversimplification.

I meant it's an oversimplification to only hold up that Gallup poll as representative of the SC's legitimacy.  Legitimacy is based on public opinion, but those that research it obviously don't just run approval polls - it's more nuanced than that.  However, the point is you're simply wrong to say the court lost a great deal of legitimacy due to McConnell's shenanigans.  Even 56% of Democrats approved of the court in July.  Clearly, the public is not blaming the court(s) itself for what McConnell has done, which I think is fair and makes sense.

3 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Even with Biden up in FL (by ~2) for instance, I am not at all confident he will carry the state

Should be noted that the 2018 races in Florida even further reinforced a lack of confidence in Dems leading on election eve.

[Relic]

6 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Even with Biden up in FL (by ~2) for instance, I am not at all confident he will carry the state

Yeah, can't trust Florida at all.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, DMC said:

I meant it's an oversimplification to only hold up that Gallup poll as representative of the SC's legitimacy.  Legitimacy is based on public opinion, but those that research it obviously don't just run approval polls - it's more nuanced than that.  However, the point is you're simply wrong to say the court lost a great deal of legitimacy due to McConnell's shenanigans.  Even 56% of Democrats approved of the court in July.  Clearly, the public is not blaming the court(s) itself for what McConnell has done, which I think is fair and makes sense.

56% may have approved in July, but the trendline from the graph in your link is that whoever controls the WH tends to approve of the SC.

But this gets to a previous point of mine, that the courts have already been packed, and as long as they remain illegitimately packed there cannot be faith in them.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

the trendline from the graph in your link is that whoever controls the WH tends to approve of the SC.

Yep, but the overall number has never hit 40 or below (or at least this millennia).  Compare that to Congress.  Here's a link with more detailed items demonstrating the court has maintained very solid institutional approval.  You're objectively wrong that the court doesn't have legitimacy, no real point in arguing.

[Maithanet]

Early vote update, 10/27:

Nationally - 66.4 million votes cast (48% of 2016 total)

Swing state votes, as percentage of 2016 votes cast:

Pennsylvania - 28%

Michigan - 43%

Wisconsin - 49%

Florida - 67%

Georgia - 71%

North Carolina - 71%

Arizona - 60%

Nevada - 62%

Texas - 87%

 

7 days left.  Swing states continue to outpace the nation as a whole, with only PA lagging behind.  At least half the votes in for AZ, NV, FL, NC, GA, and TX. 

[Alarich II]

One question from an ignorant European: If Texas has already achieved 87% of the votes cast in 2016, is this an indicator for a massive increase in turnout or a massive shift towards early voting?

[karaddin]

I was starting to feel an unhealthy optimism that maybe the election will actually play out ok, today has dashed that and I'm safely back to cynically hoping to be wrong but bracing for the worst. 

If I was in the US I'd be very fucking scared my marriage was going to get tossed out by the court even if Biden does win but fails to address the SCOTUS issue.