Fez Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, Ran said: Interesting: Apparently they've also stopped tracking polls in Florida. Hmm... Have they calculated that at worst it'll be close enough that the FL GOP and state courts will move the needle in their direction, and at best that it's in the bag? Already debunked. It's just that the ad expenditures in Florida (except a handful of Spanish language ones) have switched from the Trump campaign to the RNC. It's just some internal accounting stuff, has nothing to do with anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, Fez said: Already debunked. It's just that the ad expenditures in Florida (except a handful of Spanish language ones) have switched from the Trump campaign to the RNC. It's just some internal accounting stuff, has nothing to do with anything. Ah! Well then, I guess they do still think ads and polls still matter in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alguien Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Dammit. I was doing so well. Got riled up enough to write a response to a comment on a friend's Facebook page from a guy who was stating, with respect to the Supreme Court, that "both sides are bad." I don't think my comment was off base or overly emotional, but I'd promised myself not to get sucked into that pointless exercise anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: Why? High turnout in a place that routinely votes for Republicans logically implies more republican voters. Logically you wouldn't expect more democratic voters to miraculously pop up in a place like Alabama, right? In general studies have shown that things like mandatory voting or high turnout in general do not boost any one side. What you want is high turnout for demographics that support you. Sure, but my point was not R v D. It was whether there are Trump voters in 2020 who were not Trump voters in 2016. Maybe there are. I just struggle to see what it is that would motivate them to vote for him now when they didn't in 2016. Of course there are a whole category of voters who were not eligible in 2016 and are now that I'm excluding. My question is beyond that category... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Argonath Diver Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Zorral said: The line here at our polling place again, today, is over 5 hours long. My friend was at the 169th location today for four-ish hours, judging by his FB post and re-commenting. As he said, even with layoffs and shutdowns, nobody in New York's got time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, Fez said: Already debunked. It's just that the ad expenditures in Florida (except a handful of Spanish language ones) have switched from the Trump campaign to the RNC. It's just some internal accounting stuff, has nothing to do with anything. Why is it when a conservative leaning publication makes a claim about democrats and their strategies, "they're out of money" or something to that effect, it'll sit out there and get media play for more than an hour or two, sometimes up to a day or three, letting the incorrect story sit there and fester, working on potential voters to discourage them...but when a more liberal leaning publication does the same to a republican and their possible strategy or lack there of, it's debunked before there is traction? Not condoning or decrying the idea here...but if Bloomberg was trying to cause a little fuss by creating a narrative that Trump was just letting Florida go so another state would be getting his attention...well, if it makes a few hundred voters think about actually voting for him... I don’t think that was specifically what the Bloomberg article was going for...but I could see tactics like that being out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said: Why is it when a conservative leaning publication makes a claim about democrats and their strategies, "they're out of money" or something to that effect, it'll sit out there and get media play for more than an hour or two, sometimes up to a day or three, letting the incorrect story sit there and fester, working on potential voters to discourage them...but when a more liberal leaning publication does the same to a republican and their possible strategy or lack there of, it's debunked before there is traction? Because Republicans are better at politics, sad to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 30 minutes ago, alguien said: Dammit. I was doing so well. Got riled up enough to write a response to a comment on a friend's Facebook page from a guy who was stating, with respect to the Supreme Court, that "both sides are bad." I don't think my comment was off base or overly emotional, but I'd promised myself not to get sucked into that pointless exercise anymore. This is like a temporary "falling off the wagon" when one is dieting. Take a deep breath, forgive yourself, and know you can get back on track with your promise to yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Wow. Linday Graham said ACB is going to help them stay in power, Moscow Mitch called her a political asset, plus that tweet yesterday... They're not pretending anymore, are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 hours ago, larrytheimp said: Early voting lines in my county (Columbia) were over an hour first thing Saturday. Haven't checked on how it's been during the week. That was by far the longest I've ever waited. It's also crazy the number of people I know who have requested mail in voting and never received a ballot (same thing happened to me during the primary.). NY needs to get its shit together, if we were a swing state we'd be a laughing stock. OK. Local News tonight. ONE of the many reasons things are so fracked here in NYC for voting is because the NYC BOE reassigned poll assignments -- giving the largest number of voters the assignment of the poll spots that has the smallest number of voters. Which means, that Barclay Spots Center has the fewest voters of all. Places like mine, a church basement, has the most. So, now, they have to extend the number of hours to vote and count, which, of course They are doing everything to declare invalid. So, the journos ask, Why did they do this? The journos' response is Well lots of reasons but they never told us any except They thought this was a good way to speed up voting. And here I'd dreamed of moving somewhere smarter than the people who ran North Dakota, so ya, let's live in NYC. Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Trump says militia that sought to kidnap and kill Michigan’s Gov. Whitmer was ‘maybe a problem, maybe it wasn’t’ “People are entitled to say maybe it was a problem, maybe it wasn’t,” Trump told his rally. https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/trump-says-militia-that-sought-to-kidnap-and-michigans-gov-whitmer-was-maybe-a-problem-maybe-it-wasnt/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: Trump says militia that sought to kidnap and kill Michigan’s Gov. Whitmer was ‘maybe a problem, maybe it wasn’t’ “People are entitled to say maybe it was a problem, maybe it wasn’t,” Trump told his rally. https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/trump-says-militia-that-sought-to-kidnap-and-michigans-gov-whitmer-was-maybe-a-problem-maybe-it-wasnt/ Trump had to be at least loosely aware of the surveillance on the group. Whitmer was. And yet Trump was still attacking her publicly the whole time and immediately attacked her directly after the plot was foiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Trump had to be at least loosely aware This is always a shaky place to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Appears i was wrong - polling basically didn't do jack post debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 @DMC Mostly the nomination yeah. The reminders that they have no expectation of winning legitimately reinforced that they'll be doing absolutely everything they can to steal it and with that is a worry that all the early voting is just set up as a trap and it won't actually get counted. Also it's just a week to go, sustaining cynicism for a week won't have too much impact on my mental health, feeling optimistic for a week only to have it crushed again would take a significant toll. It's not like I'm a participant here and can shift the needle in any direction so emotional safety takes precedence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, karaddin said: Also it's just a week to go, sustaining cynicism for a week won't have too much impact on my mental health, feeling optimistic for a week only to have it crushed again would take a significant toll. Heh, can't argue with that logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 AOC:: This is about the preservation of our democracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Killjoybear said: Appears i was wrong - polling basically didn't do jack post debate. It should be noted a lot of these polls started before the debate. It may skew the results no? Emerson released a poll today that puts Biden merely at q five point lead nationally . It appears independent are brealing towards trump 47-41. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Those are all post-debate polls. And the last Emerson poll had Biden up +3 (in September), so its possible they are similar to IBD/TIPP in that they show poorer results for Biden. I wouldnt sweat single polls at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Prince of Dorne Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: It should be noted a lot of these polls started before the debate. It may skew the results no? Emerson released a poll today that puts Biden merely at q five point lead nationally . It appears independent are brealing towards trump 47-41. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out I think every Emerson national poll has been much closer than the average this election cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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