Jump to content

US Election Predictions Thread


Fez

Recommended Posts

Seemed worth making a separate thread so this doesn't get lost in the constant churn of the regular US politics thread. Time for people to put their (hypothetical, virtual) money where their mouth is, and make their predictions on how the election next week goes. So after the dust settles we can have a better record of who's a hopeless optimist, who's a sneering cynic, and who's a steely-eyed realist.

Here's mine. And note that my first, and largest, prediction is that in the end we do get a fair and accurate count of all the votes.

President: Biden 350 Electoral Votes, Trump 188 Electoral Votes

Map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Y22mB

Biden gets the Clinton states, MI/WI/PA, IA/NE2, NC, and AZ/TX. Trump holds on to OH, GA/FL, and all the rest. My reasoning:

The Clinton states: None of them seem at-risk anymore, not even NH/NV/MN.

The MI/WI/PA trio: Polling is clear that Biden is up big in all of them, and I just don't see a polling error big enough for that to be wrong. And that's actually the election there. Though if that's all that Biden wins, it's far too easy for things to get stolen.

IA/NE2 vs. OH: Iowa hasn't been talked about much recently, but recent polling has been quite good for Biden there. And it's a much more elastic state than Ohio, easy to see it flip back. It's also a state with record early voting, which we can't read any results into, but at least suggests Democrats aren't sleeping there the way they were in 2016.

NC vs. GA/FL: All three are pretty equal in the polls, but there's a crucial difference: I just don't trust Georgia or Florida. With Florida, I don't trust the polling, it was still wrong in 2018. And Georgia is the one state that I could see something nefarious happening in a razor-thin race; which I'm pretty sure did happen in the governors race in 2018.

AZ/TX: I think Biden's support is being understated in both, just like Democratic support was in 2018. Biden's already favored in Arizona, but I think he's going to win by a lot more than expected, and I think he'll just barely squeak by in Texas. The one wrinkle is just how terrible COVID has gotten in El Paso and whether that significantly impacts election day turnout there.

Other Trump states: Latent GOP support is just too high for any of them to flip to Biden unless there's a major polling error that favors Biden. Even without that, I do think there will be some close calls, just not enough to get over the edge. I think Missouri will be shockingly close for instance, not quite to Obama 2008 levels, but almost. 

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 46. Both Georgia races go to run-offs.

Map: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5nY7YM

Democrats flip: Colorado, North Carolina, Maine, Arizona, Iowa, and Montana. Republicans flip: Alabama

Most of these races hav been talked about enough that I don't think any in-depth reasoning is needed. Democrats have consistently been up a lot in CO/ME/AZ and Republicans in AL, those seem set. I think Biden's wins in NC and IA will be enough to flip those.

Most of the other close-ish senate races, AK/SC/KS/MS, I think latent GOP support will be too much, and Trump winning the state will be enough to get them over the edge. The one exception is MT. I know polling doesn't really back it up, Bullock has only been up in 1 of the past 5 polls. I just feel that he's going to get more cross-over votes then expected, there's a reason he was able to be governor for 8 years there. As for Texas, I think Biden's win will be narrow enough that it's not enough to get Hegar over the line, and I think Cornyn does outrun Trump by a few points.

House: Democrats 247, Republicans 188

Not going to try analyzing individual races. I just think, based on the totality of district polling, that Democrats netting +15 seats seems reasonable.

State Legislatures

I don't know enough about these to make educated predictions, except to say that I'm pretty confident Democrats take the MN senate and the AZ House. Anything beyond that though, no idea.

Governors

Not really any competitive races besides Montana. I don't think there's any upsets though, and I think Republicans win Montana. Of all the statewide races there this year, only Bullock wins.

What you got?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

This thread feels about four days too early.  I will get back to you on Monday. 

Fair. I guess my other predictions is that polls have been static and will continue to be static for the last few days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Fez said:

Fair. I guess my other predictions is that polls have been static and will continue to be static for the last few days.

I don't expect a lot of movement either.  But we are going to get a LOT of polls between now and then, and there's a good chance that the current muddle of FL/GA/NC/IA which are all currently Biden +1-2 will get clearer.  I'm definitely hoping we see slight improvement from either NC or FL.  I feel like the most painless non-blowout result for Biden would just be to win AZ and one of FL/NC on election night.  Do that and when WI/MI get called (probably the next morning) and it's over. 

I mean, winning TX or GA or OH would be great, but all of those are really red states and thus feel like a much heavier lift (even if they're polling is pretty comparable). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/vlljk

Probably too optimistic after seeing today's Biden +17 poll in Wisconsin, but, whatever, I'm used to being wrong about these things. 

Anecodotal, I know, but there are far far more Biden/Harris signs in and around my lily white Milwaukee suburb than I would have thought...but then it seems to be really progressive for a suburb at times, other times not as much (ie the recent property damage after the marches when a cop who killed a young African American man last February wasn't charged, despite it being the third person he's shot and killed over his career...)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm feeling optimistic about the election, so I'm predicting that Democrats sweep the White House, Senate, and House.  This is the only good thing that is going to result from Trump's complete mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Leap said:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Bv20p

Go big or go home.

 

In this case I would rather win small than not win at all. 

My Senate prediction differs from @Fez on MT (I think Trump carries Daines across the line and the majority of polls have shown Bullock running behind) and Georgia (I think Ossoff has momentum and has been inching closer and closer to 50%).  But we get to the same result.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/vlljk

Probably too optimistic after seeing today's Biden +17 poll in Wisconsin, but, whatever, I'm used to being wrong about these things. 

 

9 minutes ago, Leap said:

These are the exact same map except for Onion has Biden winning Iowa as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I live in Georgia. Nothing nefarious happened in 2018.

I was a certified poll watcher and also a volunteer on The Voter Hotline.

And, yes, I’m a microcosm in the state as far as poll watching, but the Voter Hotline calls were statewide. The calls were by and large from older people unfamiliar with technology (the Internet) who wanted to know if their absentee ballot had been accepted. In 99% of the cases, it had. In 1% of the cases, the voter could “cure” the issue that day. It was usually signature mismatch from people who didn’t sign the same signature as they did 20 years ago (again, age). 

Nothing nefarious?

https://www.theroot.com/exclusive-thousands-of-black-votes-in-georgia-disappea-1832472558

Quote

Kemp wasn’t afraid to publicly warn his colleagues about the dangers of black voters. He disproportionately purged black voters from rolls. He threw out black absentee ballots. He used unauditable voting machines and left voter data unsecured. He essentially got to referee his own match.

And in the end, Brian Kemp won...

We think.

There were so many abnormalities during the Georgia election that many people questioned the validity of the results. There were numerous calls from black voters whose machines were misrecording their votes for some reason. Then, someone discovered a vulnerability in the secretary of state’s “My Voter” website that allowed anyone to have access to the entire voter registration database.

 

From the Coalition of Good Governance (linked in article) 

Quote

The extreme undervote issue occurred at statistically significant levels in 101 of Georgia’s 159 counties. However, the undervotes on voting machines are concentrated in precincts where African American voters make up the majority of the precincts’ registered voters. The rates of touchscreen machine–reported undervotes in such precincts in the Lt. Governor contest are far greater than the undervote rates in non–African American neighborhoods regardless of whether those neighborhoods lean Democratic or Republican. The undervote problem did not happen at the same exaggerated levels in many primarily White neighborhoods that overwhelmingly voted for Stacey Abrams and other Democrats, rebutting the argument that the difference can be explained by party-driven voter behavior.

Finally --

Quote

The statistics professor from Berkeley can’t explain it. The voting-machine expert at the University of Michigan doesn’t know how it happened. The data analyst from one of the leading analytics firm in the world has no answers. The political expert who specializes in black voters can’t explain it.

Either all the black people in Georgia collectively decided to skip a vote on their ballot or something happened with the voting machines. But only the machines where black people voted.

So what happened to all those black votes?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Relic said:

im just gonna predict an epic flustercluck to close out the year. Regardless of who wins, we all lose. 

I predict that if Biden wins and Dems take all the House and Senate we will be hearing about how we need to reign in the deficit, and there will be no UBI retroactive or otherwise in a covid/stimulus bill.

There will be no court expansion.

I predict it will be closer to anything McConnel proposed than to the House's bill from earlier in the year (HEROS or CARES?) that never got a vote.

If Trump wins I have no fucking idea what happens.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I’m not going to play the conspiracy theory game. 

For sure, your anecdotal experience in a white area of Georgia carries far more weight than the documented evidence of purging voter rolls, reducing polling places, etc. in predominantly Black counties.

Disappointing that you would stick your head in the sand on this issue rather than acknowledge that active suppression and disenfranchisement is occurring in your state which retired its state flag with the Confederate battle flag with a more subtle (but still pretty obvious) Confederate flag. https://www.courier-journal.com/story/opinion/2020/07/08/donald-trump-happy-forgotten-confederate-flag-georgia/5392651002/

Anyway, off-topic getting into the past, present, and future sins of Georgia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Sure, buddy, if you want to go ahead and donate some cash (as I do) to Project Fair Fight, please feel free.

Until then, quit preaching about a place you’ve never been.

And why do you think I live in a “white area”? I never have. My first neighborhood’s primary language was Portuguese.

You frequently refer to Cobb County -- which is the majority white suburb that the Braves moved to after closing Turner Field. 

I have family in GA and briefly went to school there. But ok! /peace sign

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

I predict that if Biden wins and Dems take all the House and Senate we will be hearing about how we need to reign in the deficit, and there will be no UBI retroactive or otherwise in a covid/stimulus bill.

There will be no court expansion.

I predict it will be closer to anything McConnel proposed than to the House's bill from earlier in the year (HEROS or CARES?) that never got a vote.

Well aren't you just a ray of sunshine.

I agree with others that it's a bit too early.  Try to get in my predictions by football Sunday.  If the Niners win, they'll be optimistic.  If, in all likelihood, the Seahawks beat their depleted squad, they'll be evenhanded.  If the Niners lose even more key performers in the process, they'll be pessimistic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trump will win.

I predict Trump will crumple the Democrats chances at the attaining the blue wall once again by perhaps even wider margins than he did last time.

I predict he will also capture Minnesota which Clinton barely held onto in 2016.

It May still be close, but I fundamentally believe Trump will take it

Arizona will not be taken by Biden.

Nor will Texas, or any other traditionally red state Dems had salivated over this election.

Florida will be Trump’s as well.

The stories of seniors defecting to Biden will prove to be just that; just stories.

And this may be sound tin foil haty but I do think he’ll outperform his margins none-whites greater than the modest gains a lot of polls shown him having. Not at 50 or even 30 percent.

But but over the typical ten Republicans could expect.

I expect this drive to be key in uneducated blacks as opposed to college educated blacks.

I predict many will  take Trump’s victory as illegitimate proof that their views alone constitute the norm Even if Trump only won the popular vote(which may be unlikely for him), by a million, or not have won the popular vote at all.

Because they lack nuance to see America isn't dark red, or blue, but a largely a distinct purple.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...