US Election Predictions Thread

[Fury Resurrected]

22 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Pretty sure Rhom isn’t a neo nazi so probably not the best example 

I’m not sure you’re the best judge of that as your points are exactly those of American Neo Nazis like the Proud Boys. I have known several people who ended up joining, and they parroted the exact same “identity politics” and “national identity” dog whistles that you do. 

[Rhom]

1 minute ago, Heartofice said:

So i'm genuinely interested in whether your vote was FOR Trump or AGAINST Biden? What could the dems have done to convince you to vote for them, what did they do that put you off? Was there a moment where you decided to vote for Trump (you mentioned the protests, was this a key point?)

Just when I think I'm out...

To specifically address your question, I have real concerns about Biden at this point in his life.  I do believe that he displays concerning signs of potential dementia and don't believe he will make it all four years.  Pelosi filing a bill a few weeks ago to outline the process to remove a sitting president via the 25th amendment signals this pretty clearly I believe.  I do believe he gets a pass on issues from the media that they would crucify a Republican for.  Could I have voted for random moderate Democrat?  Maybe.  Do I wish that there was a different option at the head of the Republican ticket?  Sure.  Its why I didn't vote for him four years ago.  I tend to believe that until we have a legitimate third party in this country, we won't make any headway and I have tended to vote for a third party not out of ideological alignments, but out of a practical desire that within my lifetime we might see a viable third party. 

I have somehow been vilified already (as I knew I would be) as some sort of greedy individualist.  When I talk about the benefits to my business, I'm not talking about JUST me.  I'm talking about small business owners just like me across the country.  

I can tell you that the benefits are not small for a business like mine.  In the two years prior to the most recent round of tax cuts, I paid more to the federal government than I took home.  Without using exact figures, I will speak in vague terms just to clarify exactly what I mean.  In 2016, if I took home $100K... I paid the US government $120K.  The last two years has been a drastic difference.  Instead of reading this as me talking about how great I'm doing... think of this as your neighbor down the street.  I am not some faceless millionaire.  I'm solidly middle class in this country.  The overwhelming philosophy of the Democratic party that I saw espoused in the primary debates would pose a very real threat to small businesses in this country that I believe to be the lifeblood of our economy.  My health insurance was set to go up 300% in the wake of the Affordable Care Act until a revision allowed you to keep a grandfathered policy.  I have kept that policy since and even that has gone up from around $200/mo to now at $500/mo with a $5k deductible... if I drop it and go onto the marketplace?  Cheapest plan is well over $1k/mo.  Those policies have without a doubt hit small business owners hard.  Again, these observations are not made about me, they are made about business owners like me who are providing jobs that drive this country.

Did the riots affect my vote personally?  No.  Do I know people who it absolutely did swing their vote?  Yes.  I believe that Greg Fischer the Democratic mayor of Louisville abdicated his responsibility to lead and tore down two decades of progress made by Jerry Abramson (also a Democrat) to breathe life back into the downtown.  Fischer's inaction following the tragic shooting of Breonna Taylor did nothing to assuage the concerns of the community about the circumstances surrounding the botched arrest that night.  As an aside, I personally know Daniel Cameron.  He's from the next town over and is a very intelligent and well spoken young man.  The abuse he gets for correctly applying the law as it is written is a travesty.  Before her name ever became a national narrative, steps were already being taken by Louisville Metro Council to do away with no knock warrants.  Facts didn't matter, the narrative was all that mattered.

So anyways, TL:DR version... greedy racist.  That's me in this echo chamber.  Rather than listen to real concerns, keep talking amongst yourselves and continue to be surprised when the rest of the country doesn't think exactly the same.  

[aceluby]

Just now, Heartofice said:

The onus isn’t on you to understand, but I would have thought after 5 years of clueless mumbling about racism and deplorables you might have some level of curiosity about why half the country don’t agree with you 

What's to be curious about?  It's been the same reasoning for the last 30 years.  Tout 'the economy', ignore everything that pokes holes in that very bad argument, and at the very least be completely fine with overt racism and voter suppression.

It's the same regardless of who you ask, so not sure what's to be curious about?  The biggest problem is what was shown here, when pressed about why the economic angle doesn't make any sense: play victim, ignore any and all new information and arguments, and then run off to a safe space.

[butterbumps!]

Just now, Heartofice said:

The onus isn’t on you to understand, but I would have thought after 5 years of clueless mumbling about racism and deplorables you might have some level of curiosity about why half the country don’t agree with you 

I don't understand what you persist to see as our "cluelessness" regarding American racism.   Without even bringing up anything else, Trump literally repeatedly refuses to denounce white supremacy when lobbed softball opportunities to do so, and flirts with racists every chance he's offered.   Like these are three of the easiest things in the world to do if you genuinely aren't racist or simply don't want to be seen as racist: don't wink at white supremacists, don't employ open racists like Stephen Miller, and when asked if you support white supremacy, say no.

The fact that people keep voting for this guy means that, at the very least, they are ok with directly empowering white supremacy.  

[DanteGabriel]

32 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

The onus isn’t on you to understand, but I would have thought after 5 years of clueless mumbling about racism and deplorables you might have some level of curiosity about why half the country don’t agree with you 

I wasn't talking to you, I was talking to Rhom, but I guess since there's a white guy nearby who's starting to feel uncomfortable it's your job to cape for him.

I would have thought after five years of cluelessly trying to strawman my arguments you'd have given up. I have talked about a lot of factors here -- racism, LGBTQ discrimination, fiscal policy, Covid bungling -- yet you constantly accuse me of making it just about racism. It's not just about racism, but racism is a big deal and an unparalleled electoral weapon in American politics. I wouldn't expect you to understand, since you're foreign and incurious and apparently predispositioned to handwave away racism to spare the feelings of the nearest white person in the vicinity.

If you can't engage with a whole argument and just keep banging this "Stop making everything about only race" drum, then just wrap your whole mouth around that boot and save me your gaslighting histrionics.

[Rhom]

1 minute ago, DanteGabriel said:

I wasn't talking to you, I was talking to Rhom, but I guess since there's a white guy nearby who's starting to feel uncomfortable it's your job to cape for him.

I would have thought after five years of cluelessly trying to strawman my arguments you'd have given up. I have talked about a lot of factors here -- racism, LGBTQ discrimination, fiscal policy, Covid bungling -- yet you constantly accuse me of making it just about racism. It's not just about racism, but racism is a big deal and an unparalleled electoral weapon in American politics. I wouldn't expect you to understand, since you're foreign and incurious and apparently predispositioned to handwave away racism to spare the feelings of the nearest white person in the vicinity.

If you can't engage with a whole argument and just keep banging this "Stop making everything about only race" drum, then shut the fuck up and stop trying to address me, bootlicker.

I don't feel uncomfortable.  I just realize that there's no point to being part of the discussion where those viewpoints aren't welcome.  I can choose where I like to spend my time.  I enjoy talking football with you.  I would prefer to spend my time there.   

[Macklunkey]

2 hours ago, Rhom said:

It is.  It allows me to provide a decent job to those five people that I mentioned earlier.  It allows me to provide care for a couple hundred patients every week.  It allowed me to teach as a hobby at the local community college.  It gives me the opportunity to volunteer in my community and be part of an international advisory committee of just 8 people for one of the biggest service organizations in the world.  (Seriously, that has been one of the coolest things I've had a chance to do.)

I have been very fortunate in my life.  I won't deny that.  I believe in looking for the best in people and tend to see the sunny side.  I genuinely believe that I live in the greatest country in the world.  Is it perfect?  Of course not.  Can we do better?  Sure.  Do we disagree on the best way to get there?  Yeah.  Does that make you a bad person?  Not at all.  Does it make me a bad person?  I like to think not.

I'm alright Jack.

[Knight Of Winter]

By not listening to Rhom and at least acknowledging that his reasons could be valid, you're doing yourself pretty big disservice. Look, like everyone here, I struggle to understand what prompted apparently decent person to give his vote to Trump (or in case of my country, other trump-like politicians). In that aspect, Rhom's post is a gift - reasonable, well-meaning and non-inflamatory piece of text that calmly states his reasoning. Now, you can take it to heart and use it to expand your knowledge about society and politics, you can learn and therefore "profit" from it. Or you can dismiss it as ramblings from just another racist (or bigot, or racially insensitive guy etc. - anything that amounts to "bad person") and then be surprised in 5 or 10 years when another Trump, Putin or Orban wins yet another election in some country. How could this could have happened - you will all wonder, for everyone I know agrees that he just sucks. By then it will be too late, of course. You were just to busy circlejerking in your own epistemological bubble to notice.

To be fair, several responses here were reasonable, well-argumented and encouraging of further discussion - I will single out posts by Toth, DanteGabriel and Ran. But most of the rest is just a hot mess of insecurity, virtue-signaling and basest insults, comforted by the fact that everyone here supports their ideological position. For example:

- first response is proud gotcha post, telling Rhom that whatever he thinks of himself, he actually is kind of a racist, or at least has some racial bias. Because why else would one vote for Trump, if not for racist reasons?

- next one comes from master cryptographer, gifted with ability to see things noone else is able to see. Ciphers, secret messages and coded languages unfold before him like Moon Landing unfolds in front of conspiracy theorist. Who would be the recipient of such coded language in this staunchly anti-Trump forum remains unclear.

- third one is ever so eager to take moral high ground and self-righteously publicly condemn the unfortunate sinner. For how much did you sell your political soul, full of indignation asks the guy who voted for known warmonger and accused rapist. And yes, were I an American, I'd vote for this very same warmonger and accused rapist. Point is: it's very easy - and very lazy - to sound virtuous by using labels to condemn the other side and accuse them of some kind of moral depravity. I hoped that this place is above using such cheap tricks. Apparently not

- fourth one offers such a simple explanation: Rhom is a selfish guy who simply doesn't care about other people. Isn't it just magnificently wonderful to have such a worldview, such simple black-and-white morality? Selfish people vote for Trump, and altruistic ones against him. Problem solved.

I'll probably sound antagonistic for what I wrote above, and I get why some might see it so. But this whole affair is seriously disappointing. If the group of well educated and otherwise reasonable leftists - which by tradition stand for virtues like tolerance, diversity, open mindedness etc. - can't respond to one polite Trump voter without petty ad hominems and virtue signalling, well, that's just sad. Again, kudos to posters who wrote sensible rebuttals or Rhom's points and who are unfortunately in a minority. 

[DanteGabriel]

It's not that I refuse to consider Rhom's viewpoint. It's that, based on all available evidence of Trump's performance, his reasons do not make sense to me. I spelled that right out at the beginning. I said I disagreed with his premises, reasoning, and conclusion.

A benighted over-privileged white guy explaining the great reasons he had for voting for an incompetent bigoted conman who is actually responsible for untold suffering and death just isn't as convincing to us as it is to you.

[Spockydog]

6 minutes ago, Macklunkey said:

I'm alright Jack.

The American Way. 

[Kalbear]

9 minutes ago, Knight Of Winter said:

By not listening to Rhom and at least acknowledging that his reasons could be valid, you're doing yourself pretty big disservice. Look, like everyone here, I struggle to understand what prompted apparently decent person to give his vote to Trump (or in case of my country, other trump-like politicians). In that aspect, Rhom's post is a gift - reasonable, well-meaning and non-inflamatory piece of text that calmly states his reasoning. 

I think this is the real rub. Rhom's post is not particularly non-inflammatory, and that's sort of the point. Rhom blames Democrats - and more importantly believes Trump is better - in dealing with a riot that was caused from violence to an innocent black woman by the state. That same person - Trump - repeatedly supports the police in every single way, including this case.

And again, this happened during Trump's watch. 

This is absolutely inflammatory. The notion that it isn't is ridiculous. But because it is said without swear words it is considered reasonable? Please. It's not reasonable to blame a Democratic POTUS for actions that occurred during a Republican POTUS, or believe that 4 more years of that person is going to make things better. That is an entirely unreasonable position to take. Now, if Rhom had come out and said that all of that was bad and Trump isn't going to make that better but he is voting for the person who provides more tax relief to him, THAT would be reasonable. (it might still be inflammatory, but it's reasonable). But he didn't. He instead attempted to rationalize his viewpoint even though it doesn't actually fit real facts. 

 

[Rippounet]

11 minutes ago, Knight Of Winter said:

Rhom's post is a gift - reasonable, well-meaning and non-inflamatory piece of text that calmly states his reasoning. Now, you can take it to heart and use it to expand your knowledge about society and politics, you can learn and therefore "profit" from it.

I'm curious. What kind of profit do you have in mind ? 

[Kalbear]

Now, one thing I think is accurate here - Trump ran very heavily against the defund the police/ reform police/BLM movement, and I suspect that moved many people (including people like Rhom) to vote for Republicans and Trump. That was definitely an error and an overreach. That isn't going to fly as a good political argument in all but the most progressive cities, and even there it's backfiring some (Seattle isn't super happy about it now, frex). That is something we can use to 'profit' from it. In particular I suspect that's going to be a major reason why LatinX voters across the board did turn out for Trump more than expected.

[DanteGabriel]

Just now, Killjoybear said:

Now, one thing I think is accurate here - Trump ran very heavily against the defund the police/ reform police/BLM movement, and I suspect that moved many people (including people like Rhom) to vote for Republicans and Trump. That was definitely an error and an overreach. That isn't going to fly as a good political argument in all but the most progressive cities, and even there it's backfiring some (Seattle isn't super happy about it now, frex). That is something we can use to 'profit' from it. In particular I suspect that's going to be a major reason why LatinX voters across the board did turn out for Trump more than expected.

Yep. The "law and order" pitch never gets old. I wouldn't be surprised if cops turned up their abusive tactics to ratchet up the tension. Their brutality actually picked up after the Floyd murder.

[Durckad]

I absolutely love that Democrats need to accept responsibility for shit that doesn't happen under their watch and Republicans just get to do whatever, fail spectacularly, and nobody on the right seemingly gives a fuck.

Welcome to America motherfuckers.

[DanteGabriel]

Just now, Durckad said:

I absolutely love that Democrats need to accept responsibility for shit that doesn't happen under their watch and Republicans just get to do whatever, fail spectacularly, and nobody on the right seemingly gives a fuck.

Welcome to America motherfuckers.

Right. Like how every media organization spends all their time staring into the navels of "white working class" voters and how left behind they feel in this economy, while the struggles of black and brown people who are doing even worse in this economy is just background noise. The COVID economic crunch is harder on non-whites. Yet it's weekend warrior chuds with the money to spend on camo, guns, and militia training whose economic concerns need to be considered.

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, DanteGabriel said:

Right. Like how every media organization spends all their time staring into the navels of "white working class" voters and how left behind they feel in this economy, while the struggles of black and brown people who are doing even worse in this economy is just background noise. The COVID economic crunch is harder on non-whites. Yet it's weekend warrior chuds with the money to spend on camo, guns, and militia training whose economic concerns need to be considered.

To be fair, that is exactly right. At least as far as winning POTUS goes. Those nonwhites are significantly underrepresented in swing states. Those white working class are significantly overrepresented in those states, and are also pissed off. It is beyond ridiculous that we can simply ignore whole swaths of population which is hurting to assuage those voters, but from a strategic standpoint this is fundamentally the correct thing to do. 

Realistically, if you could have an otherwise unremarkable platform but had a candidate that was absurdly popular with Cubans in Florida, that would be one of  the best political strategies that you could possibly do. That is idiotic, but that is what the system is.

[DanteGabriel]

1 minute ago, Killjoybear said:

To be fair, that is exactly right. At least as far as winning POTUS goes. Those nonwhites are significantly underrepresented in swing states. Those white working class are significantly overrepresented in those states, and are also pissed off. It is beyond ridiculous that we can simply ignore whole swaths of population which is hurting to assuage those voters, but from a strategic standpoint this is fundamentally the correct thing to do. 

Realistically, if you could have an otherwise unremarkable platform but had a candidate that was absurdly popular with Cubans in Florida, that would be one of  the best political strategies that you could possibly do. That is idiotic, but that is what the system is.

Yes, it's a profitable electoral strategy. I'm trying to point out the inherent inequality in all the attention being paid to the economic struggles of a certain group of people who may be suffering, but are suffering less than others, yet it's supposed to be everyone else's responsibility to understand, sympathize with, and cater to the prejudices of that group. I understand that's the reality, it's just fucking ridiculous and the last thing I'm going to stand for is more people on this forum trying to pretend that the whole fucking country hasn't tried to bend over backwards to appeal to resentful white people who'd rather blame a Mexican day laborer for their problems than the factory owner who sent their job to China and bought a vacation home with the profits.

[Week]

3 hours ago, Rhom said:

See.  This right here.  This is the bullshit I’m talking about.  You people in this part of the board ran off a great person like Triskele and you just have to keep piling on accusing anyone who doesn’t agree with you of being racist.

We could go round and round with me pointing out that child separation has been a policy going back into prior administrations, but I don’t see any value in that argument.

I can point out that many of those restaurants I mentioned were hanging on by a thread in the pandemic until the rioting in downtown Louisville pushed them over the edge.

I could make the argument that many of the end goals are things we all agree on, but we differ on what is the better avenue to approach it.

But none of that matters.  Because racist.

Go ahead and make that argument in bold. It is incorrect in meaningful ways. Please, I ask you, try to make it. Then, after you've been corrected* - let me know if it was your ignorance of the policy or disregard for the group of people impacted that explains why you were wrong. Those are your two options. 

Your logic is faulty and the arguments you are making are, in fact, racist. If you sincerely don't believe that you are racist then I would suggest some serious introspection and reassessment is in order. Otherwise you'll continue to be "accidentally" called a racist.

Quote

 

*The Obama administration separated children from adults at the border only in cases when there was a doubt about the familial relationship between a child and an accompanying adult or if the adult had a serious criminal record.

 

Mr. Trump’s “zero tolerance” policy was a deliberate act of family separation, meant to deter migrants from trying to enter the United States. It directed prosecutors to file criminal charges against everyone who crossed the border without authorization, including parents, who were then separated from their children when they were taken into custody.

 

To the bold, this is an intentional act of violence on a group of people that lack political power without any regard for the human impact.

 

Not also to mention that an ideal way to avoid "rioting" in downtown Louisville would be for the police to stop murdering Black people and to be accountable for that violence when it occurs. Again, your framing of this issue leaves a lot to be desired in terms of logic, racial consciousness, and basic decency.

[kairparavel]

So, the complaints of coded language being unfair/untrue get completely tossed out when describing Daniel Cameron as 'intelligent and well-spoken'. He's the AG of Kentucky. I would hope he was. But these descriptors only come out when describing the good kind of Black person. Which is the root of racial bias. It's generally unconscious, built in to perception, after hundreds of years of reinforcing non-whites and non-Americans as others.

So honestly, how about there's some reaching across the aisle this way to learn about this and how language plays into stereotypes. It can't just be just large swaths of us trying to see the viewpoint of Trump supporters. Especially if they 'aren't racist' and 'care about people'.