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US Election Predictions Thread


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3 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

There was a vote count just released, CNN showed the votes for Trump and the votes for Biden. This may shock you, but most of the suburbs voted for a Trump.

I am sorry, but you are just wrong. Here is a link to CNN showing the blue vs. red map of Pennsylvania. Delaware County and indeed all of the suburban counties directly bordering Philadelphia are clearly blue, not red:

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/11/05/pennsylvania-vote-counting-counties-election-2020-vpx-elexnight.cnn

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9 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I am sorry, but you are just wrong. Here is a link to CNN showing the blue vs. red map of Pennsylvania. Delaware County and indeed all of the suburban counties directly bordering Philadelphia are clearly blue, not red:

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/11/05/pennsylvania-vote-counting-counties-election-2020-vpx-elexnight.cnn

Hey, I literally quoted it right off the screen. Maybe they showed the wrong name.

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1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

Hey, I literally quoted it right off the screen. Maybe they showed the wrong name.

They must have. TV networks have certainly been known to miswrite or misspeak data in other instances. 

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Just now, Ormond said:

They must have. TV networks have certainly been known to miswrite or misspeak data in other instances. 

Whatever suburb it was, all night they have been showing counties that went heavily for Trump (and over 60% for Trump is fairly heavy, but others were in the 80s) returned mail-in ballots the were strongly for Biden, showing that Democrats voted by mail in PA. This county was 62% for Trump, but the mail-in ballots were heavily in Biden’s favor.

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Just now, Fragile Bird said:

Whatever suburb it was, all night they have been showing counties that went heavily for Trump (and over 60% for Trump is fairly heavy, but others were in the 80s) returned mail-in ballots the were strongly for Biden, showing that Democrats voted by mail in PA. This county was 62% for Trump, but the mail-in ballots were heavily in Biden’s favor.

I certainly have seen that phenomenon mentioned, though the examples of particular counties I've heard mentioned in that context have been in Georgia, not Pennsylvania. I've heard them say that about Pennsylvania in general, but haven't seen them give figures for any specific Republican county there. 

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8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

This county was 62% for Trump, but the mail-in ballots were heavily in Biden’s favor.

Biden is up 62/36 in Delaware county, not the other way around.

Anyway, you two youngsters get back in the right thread!

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2 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I certainly have seen that phenomenon mentioned, though the examples of particular counties I've heard mentioned in that context have been in Georgia, not Pennsylvania. I've heard them say that about Pennsylvania in general, but haven't seen them give figures for any specific Republican county there. 

In Pennsylvania, as of several hours ago, Trump had not underperformed his 2016 election totals in any rural county. There was a great interview with Senator Casey and John King early in the afternoon about the incredible job Trump did pulling out the rural vote. Casey called it the best result of any Republican President he has ever seen, kind of worrisome for future elections, but Casey is convinced no one in 24, 28 or 32 will be able to duplicate what Trump has done. Even so, Biden has managed to flip Erie. If you remember that was where Trump showed up last week and told the crowd he didn’t expect to ever to return there, but they made him go back to work to ask for their votes.

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1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

Yes, I just looked for myself, but this county that CNN just showed was 62.2 for Trump.

Gotcha.  And your general point above is correct - in terms of the mail-in votes coming in, Biden has not lost in a single county throughout PA.  That's how Democratic the mail-in votes are here.

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32 minutes ago, Toth said:

Trump is now only 600 votes ahead in Georgia... damn, I ran out of nails to bite long ago...

In other news, Der Spiegel today posted this title page: https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/1aa34509-835c-4eb1-837f-e0cc1dead157_w948_r1.77_fpx55.64_fpy54.97.jpg

Edit: While I wrote this, it shrunk down to 463. XD

And now Biden has surpassed him by over 900 votes in Georgia!

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