B+A=J almost makes sense

[Alyn Oakenfist]

So, obviously R+L=J is true, but one thing that is interesting is that Jon being Brandon's and Ashara's actually makes sense. It would make sense for Ned to hide who he is, given the messy succession implications that would follow, and the schemers trying to put him in charge at Winterfell, not to mention claiming him as his to hide his brother's dishonor is a very Ned thing to do, like when he takes responsability for Cat kidnapping Tyrion. The only piece of evidence against this theory is Lyanna being "in a bed of blood", but other then that B+A=J actually almost holds up. So what do you think, is it a very fun Red Herring or is it more improbable then I think?

[kissdbyfire]

It is a lot more improbable than you think. For instance, the timeline doesn’t work at all. Jon would have to be several months older than he is. And while it is possible that he is older than Robb, their age difference must be a few months tops; my guess is, no more than 3 months. Also, it wouldn’t make sense for Ned to hide it, despite you claiming that it would. And it especially wouldn’t make any sense at all for Ned to hide it from Cat, something that has caused a lot of hurt to both. There’s also the fact that Ned never once thinks about it. But he does think about Lyanna in her bed of blood, he has the old dream about the ToJ, etc, etc. 

[CamiloRP]

I think a case could be made for it, whit out it meaning it's true, some people have almost convinced me of it the past. 

Quote

Ned thought, If it came to that, the life of some child I did not know, against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do? Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon's life, against the children of her body? He did not know. He prayed he never would.

I like this quote as evidence for it (Jon having somewhat of a claim for Winterfell over Robb)

Also, while I think R+L=J is definitely the most likely of the Jon's parentage theories, but I hate how it glosses over Ashara and the Daynes, they are a part of the story, I get that they are a red herring, but still, they need to have a purpose beyond that.

 

10 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

The only piece of evidence against this theory is Lyanna being "in a bed of blood"

There's another (IMHO) theory that could help that, Dany being the one in that bed of blood. Again, I don't buy this theory, but htere's an argument to be made for it.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

It is a lot more improbable than you think. For instance, the timeline doesn’t work at all. Jon would have to be several months older than he is. And while it is possible that he is older than Robb, their age difference must be a few months tops; my guess is, no more than 3 months. Also, it wouldn’t make sense for Ned to hide it, despite you claiming that it would.

To be fair, as outlined quite a few times before the timeline of the Rebellion is super messed up and doesn't quite make sense, so maybe that could be used as a counter argument?

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And it especially wouldn’t make any sense at all for Ned to hide it from Cat, something that has caused a lot of hurt to both.

It would though. Ned doesn't want to hurt Cat by pointing out that her bethroded was shall we say very unfaithful, not to mention that revealing Jon as Brandon's kid would spike Cat's paranoia of him by a thousand. Cat is a bit paranoid about Jon despite him being Robb's bastard brother. Can you imagine how bad it would be if Cat thought that Jon's claim could be considered better the Robb's.

4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

There’s also the fact that Ned never once thinks about it. But he does think about Lyanna in her bed of blood, he has the old dream about the ToJ, etc, etc. 

As I said, the only thing that ways heavily against B+A=J is Ned's thought about Lyanna and the bed of blood.

5 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

17 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

The only piece of evidence against this theory is Lyanna being "in a bed of blood"

There's another (IMHO) theory that could help that, Dany being the one in that bed of blood. Again, I don't buy this theory, but htere's an argument to be made for it.

Ah yes, a crackpot within a crackpot

[CamiloRP]

3 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

It would though. Ned doesn't want to hurt Cat by pointing out that her bethroded was shall we say very unfaithful,

So he would lead her to believe her husband was unfaithful right after they married? That's worse

 

Quote

Ah yes, a crackpot within a crackpot

My kind of party

[Nathan Stark]

Honestly, I find N+A=J much more convincing as an alternative to R+L=J. I am agreed that Jon is Rheagar and Lyanna's son, however.

[Nathan Stark]

22 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

There's another (IMHO) theory that could help that, Dany being the one in that bed of blood. Again, I don't buy this theory, but htere's an argument to be made for it.

That's Preston Jacobs territory.

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

To be fair, as outlined quite a few times before the timeline of the Rebellion is super messed up and doesn't quite make sense, so maybe that could be used as a counter argument?

The timeline is not messed up. It’s vague, yes, and Martin has said “put down the rulers and stopwatches” for a reason. But irt Brandon it isn’t even that vague, he died well before the rebellion starts, so any offspring of his would be significantly older than Jon. And when it comes to Brandon and Ashara... well, it’s even worse. Because we “know” Ashara got pregnant, so is this the pregnancy in question? Or did she become pregnant twice within a couple of years? If we’re talking a single pregnancy, this child would be older still. Ashara was at Starfall at the end of the rebellion, and yes, she wasn’t nailed to the floor there. But when could she have conceived after Harrenhal? We know some of the places Brandon was seen between the Harrenhal tourney and his death, and nowhere do we hear of Ashara or even some mysterious person who could maybe be Ashara. So, it’s either Harrenhal, which is much too early, or he met her as he rode to KL. And there isn’t a single clue or hint or anything pointing to that. I’ve read someone propose that Ashara got pregnant in the black cells of the Red Keep, while visiting Brandon. Yeah, people come up with many wild ideas, but w/o a shred of textual support it’s all rubbish and special snowflake syndrome.

As to Cat and Ned, I don’t know... they loved each other, and I would think she’d rather her former fiancé cheated on her than her hubby. I do think the inheritance issue might have played a part, but I still don’t think it justifies not telling her (from Ned’s perspective).
 

 

[John Suburbs]

45 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So, obviously R+L=J is true, but one thing that is interesting is that Jon being Brandon's and Ashara's actually makes sense. It would make sense for Ned to hide who he is, given the messy succession implications that would follow, and the schemers trying to put him in charge at Winterfell, not to mention claiming him as his to hide his brother's dishonor is a very Ned thing to do, like when he takes responsability for Cat kidnapping Tyrion. The only piece of evidence against this theory is Lyanna being "in a bed of blood", but other then that B+A=J actually almost holds up. So what do you think, is it a very fun Red Herring or is it more improbable then I think?

Sorry, but I don't there is anything obvious about it at all. There are more reasons to be skeptical of it than actual evidence that supports it.

[Frey family reunion]

I think the problem with this theory is that Ned doesn't have a good enough justification to lie to Jon, his wife, his king, and make a false affirmation of Jon, just because the problem that a Brandon bastard may have for a Winterfell succession.  And Lordlings having bastards isn't that big a stain on the family honor.  It seems to happen often and in many of the major families.  It's just not that big of a deal.

I think for Ned to tell this big of a lie and keep it from everyone, it has to be a major issue.  For me, it still comes down to only two possible scenarios.  Either Rhaegar and Lyanna or Brandon and Lyanna.  Those are the two scenarios that would cause Ned to believe that lying to Jon about his true paternage would actually help Jon.

[CamiloRP]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

The timeline is not messed up. It’s vague, yes, and Martin has said “put down the rulers and stopwatches” for a reason. But irt Brandon it isn’t even that vague, he died well before the rebellion starts, so any offspring of his would be significantly older than Jon. And when it comes to Brandon and Ashara... well, it’s even worse. Because we “know” Ashara got pregnant, so is this the pregnancy in question? Or did she become pregnant twice within a couple of years? If we’re talking a single pregnancy, this child would be older still. Ashara was at Starfall at the end of the rebellion, and yes, she wasn’t nailed to the floor there. But when could she have conceived after Harrenhal? We know some of the places Brandon was seen between the Harrenhal tourney and his death, and nowhere do we hear of Ashara or even some mysterious person who could maybe be Ashara. So, it’s either Harrenhal, which is much too early, or he met her as he rode to KL. And there isn’t a single clue or hint or anything pointing to that. I’ve read someone propose that Ashara got pregnant in the black cells of the Red Keep, while visiting Brandon. Yeah, people come up with many wild ideas, but w/o a shred of textual support it’s all rubbish and special snowflake syndrome.

As to Cat and Ned, I don’t know... they loved each other, and I would think she’d rather her former fiancé cheated on her than her hubby. I do think the inheritance issue might have played a part, but I still don’t think it justifies not telling her (from Ned’s perspective).
 

 

Well, Cersei and Cat believe Jon is Ashara's baby, so it seems like it's not an impossibility.

[CamiloRP]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think the problem with this theory is that Ned doesn't have a good enough justification to lie to Jon, his wife, his king, and make a false affirmation of Jon, just because the problem that a Brandon bastard may have for a Winterfell succession.  And Lordlings having bastards isn't that big a stain on the family honor.  It seems to happen often and in many of the major families.  It's just not that big of a deal.

I think for Ned to tell this big of a lie and keep it from everyone, it has to be a major issue.  For me, it still comes down to only two possible scenarios.  Either Rhaegar and Lyanna or Brandon and Lyanna.  Those are the two scenarios that would cause Ned to believe that lying to Jon about his true paternage would actually help Jon.

He was to quick to jump to incest in Cersei's case, but that seems unwarranted.

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Well, Cersei and Cat believe Jon is Ashara's baby, so it seems like it's not an impossibility.

Cat remembers that once she brought up Ashara’s name and Ned got angry, the name was never heard again in Winterfell. But even much later on, Cat doesn’t even think about Ashara, and wonders about Jon’s mum. 
Cersei hear some gossip that she throws at Ned, but isn’t sure of anything and doesn’t seem to care at all. 
So, how does the above mean anything at all?

[CamiloRP]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Cat remembers that once she brought up Ashara’s name and Ned got angry, the name was never heard again in Winterfell. But even much later on, Cat doesn’t even think about Ashara, and wonders about Jon’s mum. 
Cersei hear some gossip that she throws at Ned, but isn’t sure of anything and doesn’t seem to care at all. 
So, how does the above mean anything at all?

Cat thinks about the possibility of her being Jon's mother

Quote

If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be.

And some  do aswell.

Cersei doesn't care but again, she thinks it's a possibility. So it seems like it might be.

Quote

How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole?

 

 

[Lord Browndodd]

Does it work if the B stands for Benjen?  I've wondered about this, as reading his conversation with Jon in AGOT Jon I, it does suggest he sired a bastard somewhere along the line.

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Cat thinks about the possibility of her being Jon's mother

And some  do aswell.

Cersei doesn't care but again, she thinks it's a possibility. So it seems like it might be.

 

 

ACoK, Catelyn VI

If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be. And it made no matter. Ned was gone now, and his loves and his secrets had all died with him.

She thinks about the possibility, yes. But she doesn’t know, that’s the point. And she only thinks Ashara could be Jon’s mum because of the whispers she heard at Winterfell. Whispers that Ned silenced immediately, while telling Cat not to ask him about Jon. Jon, not Ashara. 
 

Cersei is only trying to get under Ned’s skin, and she doesn’t know much about him, but she does know he has a bastard son, so that’s what she uses. 
I’m sure there are more people in universe who think it’s possible. The fact that Ned killed Arthur Dayne and then returned Dawn to Starfall, etc. That doesn’t mean it happened or even that it is possible. I’ve already given my reasoning regarding Brandon and Ashara. As to Ned and Ashara, while I can’t say it’s impossible with the info we have at the mo, I can and will say I find it extremely, extremely unlikely, bordering on impossible. Because while we have a lot on Lyanna in Ned’s PoVs, we get literally zero about Ashara. Also, there are no real hints or clues for it in the text, apart from Ned dancing with Ashara at Harrenhal, and the whispers Cat hears in Winterfell. To me both are obvious red herrings. 

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, Lord Browndodd said:

Does it work if the B stands for Benjen?  I've wondered about this, as reading his conversation with Jon in AGOT Jon I, it does suggest he sired a bastard somewhere along the line.

No. 

[CamiloRP]

3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

ACoK, Catelyn VI

If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be. And it made no matter. Ned was gone now, and his loves and his secrets had all died with him.

She thinks about the possibility, yes. But she doesn’t know, that’s the point. And she only thinks Ashara could be Jon’s mum because of the whispers she heard at Winterfell. Whispers that Ned silenced immediately, while telling Cat not to ask him about Jon. Jon, not Ashara. 
 

Cersei is only trying to get under Ned’s skin, and she doesn’t know much about him, but she does know he has a bastard son, so that’s what she uses. 
I’m sure there are more people in universe who think it’s possible. The fact that Ned killed Arthur Dayne and then returned Dawn to Starfall, etc. That doesn’t mean it happened or even that it is possible. I’ve already given my reasoning regarding Brandon and Ashara. As to Ned and Ashara, while I can’t say it’s impossible with the info we have at the mo, I can and will say I find it extremely, extremely unlikely, bordering on impossible. Because while we have a lot on Lyanna in Ned’s PoVs, we get literally zero about Ashara. Also, there are no real hints or clues for it in the text, apart from Ned dancing with Ashara at Harrenhal, and the whispers Cat hears in Winterfell. To me both are obvious red herrings. 

Let's agree to disagree then, there's not much else to argue, I was just pointing out that if people think it's possible for Jon to be whom Ashara was pregnant with, it would be possible for her and Brandon too, as in both cases it would need to have happened before the war, not that I think any of these things are likely.

[kissdbyfire]

23 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Let's agree to disagree then, there's not much else to argue, I was just pointing out that if people think it's possible for Jon to be whom Ashara was pregnant with, it would be possible for her and Brandon too, as in both cases it would need to have happened before the war, not that I think any of these things are likely.

Actually, Ned and Ashara could have happened after the war started. For instance, some propose that Ashara is the fisherman’s daughter. Mind you, I don’t believe it myself, but others do. There’s also the fact that Martin said Ashara wasn’t nailed to the floor during the war, and that’s also used to support N+A=J, because she could have met him during the war and conceived Jon. And while these could work irt the timeline and Jon’s age, unlike B+A=J, there’s simply no proper evidence for it as there is for R+L=J. That’s why IMO it’s a red herring. At any rate, all these options are “possible” only because we don’t yet have enough information to state beyond any doubt that they’re impossible. Not a very compelling argument to support a theory imo. 

[Mourning Star]

Personally, I think GRRM's reference to putting down the rulers and stopwatches is about the age difference between Robb and Jon.

After all, the rumors about Ned having a bastard all have one thing in common, the child would be born far earlier than the Tower of Joy, be it to a fisherman's daughter or Ashara Dayne.

Quote

"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."
"She killed herself, though," said Arya uncertainly. "Ned says she jumped from a tower into the sea."
"So she did," Harwin admitted, as he led her back, "but that was for grief, I'd wager. She'd lost a brother, the Sword of the Morning." He shook his head. "Let it lie, my lady. They're dead, all of them. Let it lie . . . and please, when we come to Riverrun, say naught of this to your mother."

A Storm of Swords - Arya VIII

The rumor, which Cat later hears and asks Ned about, is that Jon was conceived at Harrenehall. But she somehow construes it as Ned having a bastard after they were married.

It is easier for me to believe that Cat alone was just wildly off (or willfully unobservant) about Jon's age (and Jon-Robb's relative age), than that everyone else was.