B+A=J almost makes sense

[The Green Bard]

12 minutes ago, corbon said:

He promised him he'd talk with him about his mother.

That was a show-only thing. 

If you look elsewhere in the thread you'll see what I mean about what could change from when he thought of having kept his promises.  Fact is though, we just don't know what those promises were, so we don't know how the events of the ensuing chapters changed whether they were still fulfilled by the time he was in the black cells.  

[corbon]

8 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

That was a show-only thing. 

Oops.  

Quote

If you look elsewhere in the thread you'll see what I mean about what could change from when he thought of having kept his promises.  Fact is though, we just don't know what those promises were, so we don't know how the events of the ensuing chapters changed whether they were still fulfilled by the time he was in the black cells.  

So, what you are meaning is that the same promises he'd kept earlier, were now unkept?

I don't see what changed that could be relevant to those promises. 
If he'd kept them before, that means he'd fulfilled their keeping. Something like, for example, raising Jon to know who his real parents were, is not something he'd kept. though it may be something he still intended to keep.

So what are some examples, that you might (ie speculatively) say he'd kept then and not now? So I can understand, please.
ETA, I've read the whole thread, don't recall anything suitable. Even just a post# will do. Don't mean to ask you to repeat yourself.

[Frey family reunion]

58 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

That was a show-only thing. 

If you look elsewhere in the thread you'll see what I mean about what could change from when he thought of having kept his promises.  Fact is though, we just don't know what those promises were, so we don't know how the events of the ensuing chapters changed whether they were still fulfilled by the time he was in the black cells.  

My general opinion is that Ned never planned on telling Jon about his parentage.  The time he would have sat down and talked to Jon about it was before Jon left for the Night’s Watch, so Jon could make an informed decision.  Since Ned didn’t do that, I think Ned was planning on taking his secrets to the grave with him.

Up until he was in the black cells.  The nightmares he was having seemed to cause him sorrow and shame about Jon, and that’s the first time we hear Ned wanting to sit down and have a talk with Jon.

[The Green Bard]

On 11/3/2020 at 7:34 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Up until he was in the black cells.  The nightmares he was having seemed to cause him sorrow and shame about Jon, and that’s the first time we hear Ned wanting to sit down and have a talk with Jon.

My general interpretation is pretty much the same, though the show confused me on first read (I watched season 1 before realizing there were books).  

To extend it a bit further, He then thought he'd made a deal with Varys to enable him to spend a great deal more time with Jon, only for... well Joffrey (and Littlefinger). 

[The Green Bard]

On 11/3/2020 at 6:38 PM, corbon said:

I don't see what changed that could be relevant to those promises. 

As I've said before, we really don't know what those promises are.  One might presume 1 was to take her body home and another to keep Jon safe, probably not to press his claim to the throne, but there could be any number of other promises or slight variations on those above that we simply don't know about or fully grasp. 

On 11/3/2020 at 6:38 PM, corbon said:

So what are some examples, that you might (ie speculatively) say he'd kept then and not now? So I can understand, please.

As I stated elsewhere in the thread, "keep Rhaegar's brother and sister safe from Robert" seems a reasonable enough and pertinent request, especially if she'd learned what happened to Elia and her children.  Certainly she probably blames herself for the entire war at this point... 

Certainly that may have changed in Ned's mind given that the last he'd heard from Varys is that the birds had flown on the execution of Dany and her babe.  

That is one of the ideas that made B+A=J/R+L=D and a Starfall baby swap seem realistic to so many fans, because those theories make it patently obvious why Ned would be so bent out of shape about Dany.  But in my idea here (with the help of @CamiloRP earlier in the thread) it can still be the case that R+L=J AND Ned was totally bent out of shape about Dany because of Lyanna's promise, and not just that he doesn't want children killed.  

Further, you keep saying that he considered them kept.  That is not exactly what was stated in the text.

Quote

He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

The statement is about the price, the toll it had taken on him over 15 years of trying to keep them.  The focus is not conclusive, it's about the rigor of an ongoing process; he was still paying the price of continuing to keep those promises.

[corbon]

9 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

As I've said before, we really don't know what those promises are.  One might presume 1 was to take her body home and another to keep Jon safe, probably not to press his claim to the throne, but there could be any number of other promises or slight variations on those above that we simply don't know about or fully grasp. 

Sure, though what is 'reasonable' might differ in opinions. She was literally dying in his arms, voice reduced to a whisper, and he watched the fear go out of her eyes when he gave his word, then she died. 
"Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black."
The promises aren't going to be complex, and aren't going to go beyond her most important concerns.  Rhaegar's family on Dragonstone are not going to be part of it. And thats only the first problem with this idea.

9 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

As I stated elsewhere in the thread, "keep Rhaegar's brother and sister safe from Robert" seems a reasonable enough and pertinent request, especially if she'd learned what happened to Elia and her children.  Certainly she probably blames herself for the entire war at this point... 

I didn't see that, sorry. I don't agree thats at all reasonable given the circumstances. 
Nor has it changed on Ned's part. He ignored them in Essos entirely for 15 years or so - no 'keeping them safe' there, no 'price paid' to keep that promise, or even try.  Thats the second problem with this idea.

This is not an acceptable 'promise' to Lyanna as she lay dying that he'd paid a price to keep when he thought that.
"He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them"

9 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

Certainly that may have changed in Ned's mind given that the last he'd heard from Varys is that the birds had flown on the execution of Dany and her babe.  

No. He did nothing, made no effort, paid no price, for 15 years. This idea does not meet the criteria.

9 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

That is one of the ideas that made B+A=J/R+L=D and a Starfall baby swap seem realistic to so many fans, because those theories make it patently obvious why Ned would be so bent out of shape about Dany.  But in my idea here (with the help of @CamiloRP earlier in the thread) it can still be the case that R+L=J AND Ned was totally bent out of shape about Dany because of Lyanna's promise, and not just that he doesn't want children killed.  

I don't have any respect for this argument. Ned was bent out of shape already, by the killing of Rhaenys and Aegon and Robert's reaction to it, enough to fall out with his best friend at the end of a victorious war. No further argument need be made as to why he might get bet out of shape again.

9 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

Further, you keep saying that he considered them kept.  That is not exactly what was stated in the text.

Yes, it is. I quoted it above.

9 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

The statement is about the price, the toll it had taken on him over 15 years of trying to keep them.  The focus is not conclusive, it's about the rigor of an ongoing process; he was still paying the price of continuing to keep those promises.

Yes, but thats not relevant. You've subtly shifted the focus so that you can literally change the wording. Its not the price he'd paid trying to keep them (maybe succeeding, maybe failing), its the price he'd paid to keep them. Those promises had been kept, at that point. They could be 'unkept' later (which is where the ongoing part might come in, that part is true), but not at that point. If you can point to a promise that Lyanna might have made that he'd kept at that point, but later failed, then you might have a point. So far, I've not seen one.

[The Green Bard]

9 minutes ago, corbon said:

No. He did nothing, made no effort, paid no price, for 15 years.

Cat said he was gone for a year.  What was he doing the 6 months after breaking the siege?  We don't know.  But we do know that four loyal men helped Darry on Dragonstone sometime around then.

Clearly, protecting Jon and the toll it put on his marriage was the bulk of that toll, but my point was that the toll is still being paid, (elsewise the language would be "to have kept them") 

9 minutes ago, corbon said:

This is not an acceptable 'promise' to Lyanna as she lay dying that he'd paid a price to keep when he thought that.

Good thing nobody needs your permission to interpret a passage as they see fit. If you want to take a minimalist reading of it that's your interpretation.  

9 minutes ago, corbon said:

I don't have any respect for this argument.

We're done here. 

[corbon]

8 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

We're done here. 

Respect for an argument is different from respect for a person. I explained clearly why I don't think that argument deserves respect. 

I didn't say anyone needed my permission for anything.  I argued a point, explaining why your points didn't meet my standards. Each person is allowed their own standards and I indicated that at the start quite clearly.
If you take that personally instead of actually trying to make a reasonable argument, thats either your problem or your argument's problem. 

We don't have to agree. I'm just trying to understand a pov different from mine that I have some respect for, in case I've missed something relevant. 

[Pontius Pilate]

B + A= J, A + N = J, Arthur + Lyanna = J.  Any of those combinations give Jon Snow a minor claim to the "fallen" castles of Winterfell and Starfall.  

[lehutin]

8 hours ago, Pontius Pilate said:

B + A= J, A + N = J, Arthur + Lyanna = J.  Any of those combinations give Jon Snow a minor claim to the "fallen" castles of Winterfell and Starfall.  

Only if Jon is legitimate or legitimized. B+A=J (bastard), N+A=J (bastard), A+L=J (bastard + soap opera parents) give Jon Snow exactly zero claims to Winterfell or Starfall.

[Pontius Pilate]

On 11/6/2020 at 8:30 AM, lehutin said:

Only if Jon is legitimate or legitimized. B+A=J (bastard), N+A=J (bastard), A+L=J (bastard + soap opera parents) give Jon Snow exactly zero claims to Winterfell or Starfall.

A bastard still has a claim.  It's below the other children but it is a claim nonetheless.  Here is another thing in his favor towards claiming Winterfell.  Vows in front of a Weirtree can constitute marriage among the followers of the old gods.  Words said in front of the right tree seals the deal.  It bonds a man to the Nightswatch.  Why should it not bond a man and a woman.  The south and the 7 are not going to recognize the marriage but it may hold water among the north.  Dawn the sword has no stipulation about who can claim other than having the blood of the Daynes.  Jon would have no interest in Starfall but Dawn is valuable. 

[lehutin]

12 hours ago, Pontius Pilate said:

A bastard still has a claim.  It's below the other children but it is a claim nonetheless.

What do Catelyn and Robb have to say about that?

 

Catelyn V, ASOS

Quote

“A bastard cannot inherit.”

“Not unless he’s legitimized by a royal decree,” said Robb. “There is more precedent for that than for releasing a Sworn Brother from his oath.”

 

Without legitimization, bastard B+A=J, N+A=J, etc. has no claim to Winterfell and no claim to Starfall.

 

12 hours ago, Pontius Pilate said:

Here is another thing in his favor towards claiming Winterfell.  Vows in front of a Weirtree can constitute marriage among the followers of the old gods.  Words said in front of the right tree seals the deal.

 

So now we're moving away from bastard B+A=J etc. into secret marriage -> trueborn B+a=J etc.? First, this supposed secret marriage has no supporting evidence in the text whatsoever, save maybe a confirmation-bias-affirming read of this Ned line:

 

Quote

I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men.

 

Second, please don't tell me that the reason Ned scams his trueborn nephew (or son) out of Winterfell is because of the evil and grasping Hoster Tully.