US Politics: Election Impending

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

New thread:

Anyone listen to Fresh Air with Terry Gross last night?  She interviewed “Atlantic” writer Mike Giglio about his investigation into the right wing “Milita” the “Oathkeepers”.  It was fascinating and terrifying the 10/28/2020 episode:

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/381444908/fresh-air

 

 

[Maithanet]

Early vote update, 10/29:

Nationally - 78.1 million votes cast (57% of 2016 total votes)

Swing state votes, as percentage of 2016 total votes cast:

Pennsylvania - 34%

Michigan - 48%

Wisconsin - 52%

Florida - 77%

Georgia - 82%

North Carolina - 81%

Arizona - 74%

Nevada - 71%

Texas - 94%

 

5 days left.  Probably 2/3rds, if not more, of the vote in for FL, GA, NC, TX.  Clearly more than half in AZ/NV.  Pennsylvania is gonna have a lot of people voting on election day.

[Fez]

I'm getting worried about Pennsylvania, and it has nothing to do with the polls.

One, I worry that voting in Philly is going to be disrupted by ongoing protests.

Two, this kind of thing:

There could be a real bad "red mirage" in PA this year.

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm getting worried about Pennsylvania, and it has nothing to do with the polls.

There could be a real bad "red mirage" in PA this year.

Not could be, WILL BE.  There is no chance for anything else.  Wisconsin too, although they'll have the actual numbers out faster, which will help.  But both WI and PA will probably have Trump by double digits at 11pm on election night. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm getting worried about Pennsylvania, and it has nothing to do with the polls.

One, I worry that voting in Philly is going to be disrupted by ongoing protests.

Two, this kind of thing:

There could be a real bad "red mirage" in PA this year.

Is that a Republican County trying to create the “Red Mirage”?  Anytime I see someone say “in full compliance with the law” it makes me uncomfortable.

[Fez]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Not could be, WILL BE.  There is no chance for anything else.  Wisconsin too, although they'll have the actual numbers out faster, which will help.  But both WI and PA will probably have Trump by double digits at 11pm on election night. 

I'm less worried about Wisconsin (or Michigan); for instance Dane county (Madison) said this week that they expect to have finished all vote counting by midnight election night. But Pennsylvania seems like it could be real bad. Hopefully it doesn't matter thanks to Biden wins elsewhere.

Although, Philly itself does have those new high-speed vote counting machines, so it should be finished pretty quickly (assuming no issues with protests); if turnout is good enough there, that should help.

[Ormond]

14 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Early voting ends tomorrow at 7 pm in GA, so expect more news stories about long lines / wait times. 

I think it’s logical to want to go in on the first day and “be first” and get it done....no idea why the last day is so popular as well.

Because procrastination is a very common psychological trait among humans!

By the way, whatever is going on with Citizen Data's polling of Texas, it isn't limited to the Presidential vote, because they also have Hegar 5 points ahead of Cornyn in the US Senate race there. 

[Maithanet]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm less worried about Wisconsin (or Michigan); for instance Dane county (Madison) said this week that they expect to have finished all vote counting by midnight election night. But Pennsylvania seems like it could be real bad. Hopefully it doesn't matter thanks to Biden wins elsewhere.

Although, Philly itself does have those new high-speed vote counting machines, so it should be finished pretty quickly (assuming no issues with protests); if turnout is good enough there, that should help.

I've read some conflicting things about Wisconsin.  I think that some counties will be done quickly and some slowly, but with so much of the D vote in absentee, I still expect Dems to be way behind.  If we get a few key counties with full reporting at midnight, then guys on the networks will be able to say "the picture isn't complete, but this looks like a Biden win", and that will help.  I'm hoping that we can get at least a few counties complete in PA so that we can do a similar analysis.  Even if it's only like 5 counties, if Trump is missing his 2016 mark by 5% on average, then he's very likely finished.  But we might not even get that much, Republicans are working very hard to fuck up Pennsylvania. 

[Maithanet]

Really like the polling trend that seems to be emerging in IA and GA.  Hard to believe, as Trump won them by 9 and 5 points respectively in 2016, but both of them seem to be emerging as realistic Biden pickups.

Iowa is notoriously swingy, going from a big Obama win in 2012 to a big Trump win in 2016, and it looks like it could swing back this year.  There have been six polls in the second half of this month from good pollsters, and Biden led in 4 of them, plus two ties. 

Georgia is much less swingy, but turnout is clearly up, particularly in suburban Atlanta.  A lot of pollsters seem to think that suburban Atlanta is ground zero for the suburban republican collapse, and that areas that Romney won by 20, Biden is winning and often winning comfortably.  I don't know if just a shift in the suburbs is enough, because Georgia has a lot of rural voters too.  But the polling there is looking optomistic, with the three latest quality polls showing Biden up 2, 3, and 5.  He's probably not ahead that comfortably, but it does indicate a narrow Biden advantage. 

[karaddin]

1 hour ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

He was never really a strong Trump supporter - he just thought that being at the White House would be cool.

I'm sure a lot of things sound cool when you're on as much coke as he seemed to be on in his flame out. He made it entertaining if nothing else.

[Gaston de Foix]

In somewhat troubling Senate news Sara Gideon is a bare point ahead of Susan Collins in Maine in a Survey USA poll.  Other polls have shown her comfortably ahead so evidence of the race tightening is giving me anxiety. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

55 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Because procrastination is a very common psychological trait among humans!

By the way, whatever is going on with Citizen Data's polling of Texas, it isn't limited to the Presidential vote, because they also have Hegar 5 points ahead of Cornyn in the US Senate race there. 

When I looked at 538, they have the two tied at 41 each. I think they are just putting up data on the fly without thorough analysis and having to correct later.

Edit: Further, their Texas presidential election numbers now show Biden +4, which makes more sense but I dont trust it. When you click on the poll it takes you to some GitHub site, and I have no idea what any of that means.

[Guy Kilmore]

Voting troubles in Wisconsin.  Oh Onion, never change.

[Kalbear]

Don't feel too bad @Ormond - you're doing better than other notable people also couldn't quite tell it was satire.

 

 

[Relic]

Anyone defending Scarmucci needs to re-examine how much tv they are watching. 

[Zorral]

"Millions of mail ballots have not been returned as window closes for Postal Service delivery
Election officials said many may belong to those who requested them early, then decided to vote in person"

Please, how can they know that?  We never received our requested ballots at all.  So we're voting in person on election day, when hopefully our polling place won't be at the end of a 5 hour line, since many of the voters assigned to our polling place for early voting will, if not having yet voted, be voting at their usual polling place.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/28/mail-ballots-postal-service/

Pelosi urges voters not to mail in their ballots because the post office has been so effed their ballots won't arrive.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/10/29/trump-biden-live-updates/#link-7COIG5KMBFHW7HA67K363GXIYU

Quote

 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday urged Americans to continue to vote early but to deliver their ballots in person, given that less than a week remains until Election Day.

Pelosi’s comments come as millions of mail ballots remain unreturned, prompting a flurry of warnings from election officials that ballots sent via the U.S. Postal Service at this point may not arrive in time to be counted. More than 42 million out of the 92 million mail ballots requested by voters nationally had not yet been returned as of Wednesday afternoon, according to data from the U.S. Elections Project, a nonpartisan site tracking early voting

 

.

[Ormond]

6 minutes ago, Killjoybear said:

Don't feel too bad @Ormond - you're doing better than other notable people also couldn't quite tell it was satire.

 

 

I have no reason to feel bad at all. If you go back to the last thread you will see that I had figured out this was probably satire before it was confirmed for me. Maybe I am smarter (or at least more cautious) than Michael Moore. 

[Relic]

Just now, Chataya de Fleury said:

I actually don't watch TV. Haven't turned it on since the last debate.

So what's the appeal, other than him looking good on camera? He's an empty suit. 

[Relic]

1 minute ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

He's hilarious (often unintentionally), and he also had a pretty decent career as an investment banker. 

YMMV.

You can make the same argument for Trump. Hilarious with some good? investments. So what? He's a dick pimple. 

[Fragile Bird]

17 minutes ago, Relic said:

Anyone defending Scarmucci needs to re-examine how much tv they are watching. 

Good grief, lighten up! He’s funny and scathing and he almost always makes me laugh. He’s confident enough that he didn’t disappear or show up with an AK-47 to take vengeance, or grovel with his tail between his legs ie see Cruz, Graham et al.