US Politics: Election Impending

[Fragile Bird]

Dixville Notch, NH casts 5 votes for Biden!

[Varysblackfyre321]

28 minutes ago, Ran said:

RCP is garbage and people should stop using it when 538 and The Economist exist:

 

Honestly I’m not a fan of the spats I’ve seen Silver get into lately.

Like his public spat Trafalgar. He should should inquired on their numbers  privately. 

Real clear politics’s averages have often deviated from 538.

They both elect to include/exclude different polls. RCP doesn’t include Surveymonkey polls which although are ranked as D polls by silver do have an effect albeit a small one.

[Fragile Bird]

But....

Millsfield, NH was 5 for Biden, 16 for Trump.

Boo- hoo, Millsfield!

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

They both elect to include/exclude different polls.

This is the height of a false equivalence.  Silver includes virtually everything - shit that I'm frankly surprised they can even find.  Frankly he should exclude a hell of a lot more than he does, and I'm not talking about any GOP-leaning firm.

[JGP]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Dixville Notch, NH casts 5 votes for Biden!

Someone commented that Biden should claim victory now and I had a good laugh lol

[Martell Spy]

Why a top democracy watchdog has its eyes on the US election
“There is this sense that we are other from one another.”

https://www.vox.com/2020/11/2/21542089/carter-center-us-elections-transparency-polarization

Quote

 

So often, when we are deciding where we will observe, we look at a number of factors or characteristics about the political environment in the country, and will often prioritize for observation countries that are experiencing extreme political polarization, or where there is an increase in racial tension between the key ethnic groups in the country, or where the country is going through a moment of significant transition, either consolidating democracy or transitioning toward democracy, or maybe taking steps backward and almost backsliding.

There are a lot of different criteria that we use, but those are just a few of them. Most of the time that the Carter Center has been observing, we would not have thought of the United States as meeting those criteria.

But in the last five to 10 years, we’ve seen that political polarization has greatly increased in the US. This year, we were really seeing long-simmering racial tensions come to the surface more in the context of police brutality, and then obviously, the protests and responses to those protests. We’re seeing that there were attacks on our democratic institutions, exacerbated, in part, by the conditions of the pandemic and misinformation.

So this year, we felt that when we consider those characteristics, there would probably be something the Carter Center could bring to support the elections in the United States as we would in other countries.

 

 

[Jace, Extat]

47 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Ah Thomas. Never stop being terrible.

You're.approaching old-man-yelling-at-clouds level futility.

[Varysblackfyre321]

22 minutes ago, DMC said:

This is the height of a false equivalence.  Silver includes virtually everything - shit that I'm frankly surprised they can even find.  Frankly he should exclude a hell of a lot more than he does, and I'm not talking about any GOP-leaning firm.

This is needlessly hyperbolic.

Does Silver include a lot more polls than Realclear politics ?

I’d say probably.

But 538 does elect to exclude some polls whatever their reasoning they do this.

Silver is doing a disservice to himself and his site by getting into Twitter fights on how another polling aggregate site is faulty. 

He can do his  job without doing that, and looking at both sites to gleam an election’s trajectory is okay.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

7 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

You're.approaching old-man-yelling-at-clouds level futility.

I’m not sure what you mean.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

This is needlessly hyperbolic.

Does Silver include a lot more polls than Realclear politics ?

I’d say probably.

But 538 does elect to exclude some polls whatever their reasoning they do this.

No it's not.  The only polls Silver excludes are the handful that receive "F" grades and are subsequently banned by the site because they know or "strongly suspect" they are faking their results.  Do you have any example of any others he excludes?

[Varysblackfyre321]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

No it's not.  The only polls Silver excludes are the handful that receive "F" grades and are subsequently banned by the site because they know or "strongly suspect" they are faking their results.  Do you have any example of any others he excludes?

Yes it is. No I don’t have any examples of him excluding polls he’s not categorized as worth excluding.

But the bigger issue is still him getting into petty Twitter fights with a pollster or another major polling aggregate site.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yes it is. No I don’t have any examples of him excluding polls he’s not categorized as worth excluding.

...If you can't provide any examples then you have no basis to assert he excludes polls for any other reason than they fake their results (which I think we can all agree is a good reason to exclude a poll).

[Ran]

31 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

This is needlessly hyperbolic.

Does Silver include a lot more polls than Realclear politics ?

I’d say probably.

But 538 does elect to exclude some polls whatever their reasoning they do this.

Silver is doing a disservice to himself and his site by getting into Twitter fights on how another polling aggregate site is faulty. 

He can do his  job without doing that, and looking at both sites to gleam an election’s trajectory is okay.

Except one site is obviously picking and choosing to create a narrative that the race is tightening in Trump's favor and the other... isn't.

You can also find the list of the banned polls in 538's pollster ratings and look them up yourself (let's just say that RCP doesn't bother using them either).

Quote

 

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 minutes ago, Ran said:

Except one site is obviously picking and choosing to create a narrative that the race is tightening in Trump's for and the other... isn't.

You can also find the list of the banned polls in 538's pollster ratings and look them up yourself (let's just say that RCP doesn't bother using them either).

 

Can Silver do his job without getting into a Twitter fight with RCP about the polls they choose to include and exclude?

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

...If you can't provide any examples then you have no basis to assert he excludes polls for any other reason than they fake their results (which I think we can all agree is a good reason to exclude a poll).

Luckily I didn’t make such a claim.

[Ran]

7 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Can Silver do his job without getting into a Twitter fight with RCP about the polls they choose to include and exclude?

What relevance did this have to do with anything? If he wants to call out bad data, and RCP wants to defend it, that is fine. It is his life's work, data science like this.

 

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Luckily I didn’t make such a claim.

Yes you did:

36 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

But 538 does elect to exclude some polls whatever their reasoning they do this.

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

They both elect to include/exclude different polls.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yes you did:

 

Oh come on. The posts you’re quoting don’t see making an assertion as to why 538 had excluded some polls.

11 minutes ago, Ran said:

What relevance did this have to do with anything? If he wants to call out bad data, and RCP wants to defend it, that is fine. It is his life's work, data science like this.

 

Yes, not getting into Twitter fights, which would only make his site appear more partisan(in terms of work) than it actually is.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Oh come on. The posts you’re quoting don’t see making an assertion as to why 538 had excluded some polls.

This is like Trump level absurdity.  You obviously were trying to suggest 538 and RCP exclude certain polls at some type of comparable rate or reason when the fact is the only "polls" 538 excludes are fake.  Not to mention they're excluded by RCP as well, which directly contradicts your assertion "they both elect to include/exclude different polls."

[Stubby]

On 11/1/2020 at 10:14 AM, Tywin et al. said:

I wouldn't have thought you'd be xenophobic towards drop bears. @Stubby, can you believe this shit? 

Don't worry about jackalopes mate. We know they were just made up to try and outdo dropbears, blue-ringed occys, Irikanjis and bunyips.