Covid-19 #19 Tsunami Wave

[Zorral]

NY's C-19 positivity/infection rate has risen from 1% to 2% in the last 3 weeks -- since indoor dining, etc. was opened. Deaths and hospitalizations have also steeply increased since that time. We are at the point that Cuomo says he'd reassess indoor dining, etc. 

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/us-elections-government/ny-covid-rate-rises-cuomo-20201107-vyadhpog3jdw3alqr6nzbohol4-story.html

https://gothamist.com/news/nycs-average-covid-19-positivity-rate-rise-above-2-highest-over-4-months

He's already issued parti-assedly 'quarantining' directives on those coming in by plane.  Which you know is so enforceable. But he's put the National Guard on it.  NYC police are useless for anything but beating up people.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-cuomo-national-guard-20201106-aydjip7mzvfxfbljyl4gkjogka-story.html

He's also telling all private colleges and universities to switch entirely to Distance Learning, no f2f classes, at Thanksgiving break.

https://gothamist.com/news/cuomo-urges-private-universities-switch-fully-remote-learning-after-thanksgiving

Does he want to get those kids out of his state's stats, by them going home for T-Day and keeping them there? OTOH, it keeps them from returning with infection from partying on their home turf over the break.

For weeks already the experts have been informing us -- not just NY but the world -- that the next two, two and half months, are going to be the worst yet, worse than last winter.

NY's C-19 positivity/infection rate has risen from 1% to 2% in the last 3 weeks -- since indoor dining, etc. was opened. Deaths and hospitalizations have also steeply increased since that time. We are at the point that Cuomo says he'd reassess indoor dining, etc. 

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/us-elections-government/ny-covid-rate-rises-cuomo-20201107-vyadhpog3jdw3alqr6nzbohol4-story.html

https://gothamist.com/news/nycs-average-covid-19-positivity-rate-rise-above-2-highest-over-4-months

He's already issued parti-assedly 'quarantining' directives on those coming in by plane.  Which you know is so enforceable. But he's put the National Guard on it.  NYC police are useless for anything but beating up people.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-cuomo-national-guard-20201106-aydjip7mzvfxfbljyl4gkjogka-story.html

He's also telling all private colleges and universities to switch entirely to Distance Learning, no f2f classes, at Thanksgiving break.

https://gothamist.com/news/cuomo-urges-private-universities-switch-fully-remote-learning-after-thanksgiving

Does he want to get those kids out of his state's stats, by them going home for T-Day and keeping them there? OTOH, it keeps them from returning with infection from partying on their home turf over the break.

For weeks already the experts have been informing us -- not just NY but the world -- that the next two, two and half months, are going to be the worst yet, worse than last winter.

[Fragile Bird]

Well it’s 3:30 and the US has reported 70,000 new cases already, so it may be a record breaking day again.

Everybody else is breaking records too. We hit 1325 cases in Ontario, Canada will likely have 4,500 or even 5,000 today (that’s like 40 to 45 thousand in the US to put it in perspective).

And my SiL is returning from Poland at the end of the night. I am not going to the airport with my brother and I am not going to contact them for the next two weeks. Pretty tough when you live next door to each other. She was in a very small town visiting her mother and sister, but 2 days ago she went to a big city, Lublin, staying in a hotel instead of with relatives, and only talking to them on the phone. She and a friend returning on the same flight hired a driver to take them to Warsaw airport. I hope neither the friend nor the driver were infected because she spent an hour and a half in the car with them. Somehow she plans to quarantine in the same house with my brother. It’s a big house, but bloody hell.

[A True Kaniggit]

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Well it’s 3:30 and the US has reported 70,000 new cases already, so it may be a record breaking day again.

And it’s Sunday. Our slowest day of reporting.  

[The Anti-Targ]

I'm being dogged by a COVID case that was reported yesterday. The person was almost on the same flight as me, they were almost in the same restaurant as me, and the building they work in is right next to mine and it has a café that a lot of my colleagues go to. There are only 2 COVID cases in the country (so far) outside of quarantine hotels and I've basically had 3 almost near misses with the guy, and quite a few of my colleagues will have had an actual near miss by going to that café. There is no news on whether the guy went into the cafe, but he was in the building on Friday, so he at least walked close to it at least once in the day.

[DireWolfSpirit]

France spiking.

[A True Kaniggit]

I truly believe scope insensitivity has taken over for the majority of Americans when thinking about Covid-19. Remember when we were below one thousand dead total and that seemed like such a horrible number to reach? We're now approaching 240,000+ dead with no end in sight. Still with over 100,000 new cases a day and nearly 1,000 new dead a day. With both statistics currently rising.

To help anyone who's never been involved in a mass casualty event understand the magnitude of this tragedy, look around your living room. Now imagine 20 corpses spread around it. Maybe 6-7 on your couches and chairs, a few on the coffee table, and everyone else just laid out on the floor. It fills up pretty fast. Terrifying right? Bodies everywhere?

Think of that but multiplied by 12,000. That's where we are currently at.

[karaddin]

7 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

And it’s Sunday. Our slowest day of reporting.  

Yeah, over 100k on the Sunday is a bad sign. I'd been thinking 150k in a day was likely, but seeing this many on a Sunday and it having been election week I'm worried that's low balling it and the new record will be 180-200k. This is way out of control now. Look at the acceleration curve on the 7 day rolling average. 

Our treatments have been doing much better than the first wave in NYC but this has got to be approaching hospital loads that will see deaths surging again

[A True Kaniggit]

8 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Yeah, over 100k on the Sunday is a bad sign. I'd been thinking 150k in a day was likely, but seeing this many on a Sunday and it having been election week I'm worried that's low balling it and the new record will be 180-200k. This is way out of control now. Look at the acceleration curve on the 7 day rolling average. 

Our treatments have been doing much better than the first wave in NYC but this has got to be approaching hospital loads that will see deaths surging again

Tuesday is going to tell a lot. Monday's are usually fairly close to Sunday's reporting wise here. Just a little over.

But yes, I would not at all be surprised at a 150K+ day this Tuesday. That 7 day average infection curve looks terrible.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Tuesday is going to tell a lot. Monday's are usually fairly close to Sunday's reporting wise here. Just a little over.

But yes, I would not at all be surprised at a 150K+ day this Tuesday. That 7 day average infection curve looks terrible.

Poland is about the size of Canada. The rule of thumb when I was growing up was to take a number from the US and divide by 10 for a comparable Canadian number, or multiply a Canadian number by 10 to see how it compares with the US.  Now days the appropriate number is 9.

Poland has been averaging about 25 k cases a day, times 9, that’s like 225,000 a day in the US. They’ve been saying the US is a couple of weeks behind Europe, be careful guys, 225 k a day may be coming your way soon....

[rotting sea cow]

This has been around the news for about two weeks but finally found the source

Case Study: Prolonged infectious SARS-CoV-2 shedding from an asymptomatic immunocompromised cancer patient

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31456-2

 

Quote

Highlights

• Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection and shedding in immunocompromised patient
• Infectious SARS-CoV-2 isolated up to 70 days post diagnosis
• Observed within-host genetic variation with continuous turnover of viral variants
• Patient SARS-CoV-2 isolates do not display altered replication

So, the patient was asymptomatic and infectious for 70 days. Imagine if she had not been identified.

I remember reading a speculation that the virus may have evolved in a similar subject, maybe even an HIV infected individual.

 

[Fragile Bird]

The Pfizer vaccine is 90% effective!

It’s a double shot, protection is in 28 days after...oh hell...I can’t remember if it’s the first or second shot.

 

[Fragile Bird]

Lol, ninja’d!

50 M vaccines will be available by the end of the year, so 25 M people can be vaccinated. There are manufacturing sites in both the US and Europe.

[BigFatCoward]

Storing it at -80 sounds logistically difficult. Realistically there are 2 million extremely vulnerable people in the uk, if we can get enough for those people I'd be happy. 

[DaveSumm]

I haven’t found any info on whether this means it has finished Phase 3, or just had results? We’ve had plenty of articles about the Oxford one that says it’s looking good, I’m not sure what the difference is here (by which I mean, I’m ignorant, I’m sure there is one but I don’t understand it). Is the rest just a formality, or are there more trials to be run?

[JoannaL]

Ah, I was just wondering why the German goverment was talking about vaccine and vaccine distribution for the last days on and on, and have a meeting about that this afternoon - they plan to set up state wide vaccine distribution centers in January which I found very premature a mere hour ago, but perhaps it isnt.

[JoannaL]

5 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

I haven’t found any info on whether this means it has finished Phase 3, or just had results? We’ve had plenty of articles about the Oxford one that says it’s looking good, I’m not sure what the difference is here (by which I mean, I’m ignorant, I’m sure there is one but I don’t understand it). Is the rest just a formality, or are there more trials to be run?

This is results form Phase III. The German Biontech, which works with Pfitzer on that, plan to file for aproval with the EMA next week (and I think pfizer with the FDA as well?)

[Fragile Bird]

The requirement that has to be met before the FDA will approve it is two months of safety results. Pfizer has 44,000 volunteers taking the vaccine and apparently there have been no safety issues in the two months.

The CEO of Pfizer was just on CNBC being interviewed and I’m sure it will be posted on their web site if it hasn’t been done so already, if you want to get the news right from the horse’s mouth, so to speak.

The 90% effectiveness rate is way higher than expected.

[Spockydog]

35 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, ninja’d!

50 M vaccines will be available by the end of the year, so 25 M people can be vaccinated. There are manufacturing sites in both the US and Europe.

Yay, science! Who needs experts? We fucking do!

 

[rotting sea cow]

44 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Storing it at -80 sounds logistically difficult.

Yes, it's a logistical nightmare, even for developed countries. Vaccination can only take place at special facilities.

 

44 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Realistically there are 2 million extremely vulnerable people in the uk, if we can get enough for those people I'd be happy. 

As far as I understand it, only Oxford/AstraZeneca has started trials with older adults. There is no reason to think, it cannot work with them, specially if the safety profile is as good as advertised.

[Fragile Bird]

I just listened to Dr. Scott Gottlieb talk about the process, and it sounds like it will take until mid-December to get approval through the FDA, and with the roll-out you’re really looking at February for vaccinations to start.

That means we are still going to go through that bleak winter. It may be a relatively short period of time, but we are all going to see huge numbers of deaths in our countries.

On the bright side of things, governments may now be able to say “this is it, one more stretch of lockdowns, of hyper-vigilance, of everyone in masks, and then the vaccines are coming, and we can save thousands of lives this winter”.

The other issue is that we won’t know for months how long the vaccine will be effective. And, of course, we still have the anti-vaxxer crowd with us. Better than 90% puts it in the category of the measles vaccine, and we know all about the measles outbreaks because of them.

Also, I remember being doubtful about a vaccine that has to be stored at -80 degrees. That means, I assume, that there will have to be special vaccination centers, which will be a bottleneck.