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US Politics - under the spell of The Count


Lykos

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Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Because he’s already vastly over performed in Florida given the polls there.

 

Well CNN has Biden ahead in total votes right now despite underperforming in Miami so, we will see.

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Everyone, relax. The polls in Nevada havent yet closed, so not sure how people are claiming that Trump will win it (Nevada hispanics are different from Florida hispanics). North Carolina will be counted soon, and if it goes for Biden then Trump has a much tougher task. Lastly, Georgia is a coin flip, although Trump's chances there have ticked up some, but the caveat being some counties are still to release their votes.

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Possibly the best thing that can happen for US democracy is for trump to win the EC but Biden win the NPV by an even bigger margin than Clinton. Why? Because it would hasten the demolition of the Electoral college.

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1 minute ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Possibly the best thing that can happen for US democracy is for trump to win the EC but Biden win the NPV by an even bigger margin than Clinton. Why? Because it would hasten the demolition of the Electoral college.

Yes, the Republicans will definitely be behind losing some power, that sounds like them

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18 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Hang on. Is Tump going to win this thing? 

Nobody knows, but at this point, the best answer is still "probably not." Realistically, we won't find out until Wednesday at the earliest and it's much more likely that we won't know until at least later in the week.

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Just now, Disturber of Peace said:

 

3 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

If another pandemic hits the nation like Covid do you think Trump would try downplaying such a thing again? 

 

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8 minutes ago, S John said:

Or they lie. I’ve seen many conservative posters on other boards gleefully brag that they told a pollster they were voting for Biden.

Consequence of "the media" being seen as a monolith, and on the other side. An enemy isn't owed good faith that they just mean to use against you. A spontaneous consensus of deception for effect becomes sensible; also fun.

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4 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Possibly the best thing that can happen for US democracy is for trump to win the EC but Biden win the NPV by an even bigger margin than Clinton. Why? Because it would hasten the demolition of the Electoral college.

No..... It means that Republicans get institutional control for another decade, and they're only going to lean into it. Have you learned nothing?

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

No..... It means that Republicans get institutional control for another decade, and they're only going to lean into it. Have you learned nothing?

Not really germane to previous point, but I think interesting re-alignments have been occurring with the major US Parties for the past four years. It's been really interesting- it's like people finally figured out that the Cold War is over and everyone is scrambling.

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.actionnetwork.com/politics/election-odds-predictions-trump-biden-betting-presidential-race-2020

 

7:45 p.m. ET

After hours of a stagnant betting market, Donald Trump’s implied probability based on the election odds at Betfair have hit the highest point since Sept. 29:

  • Joe Biden: -136 (54.8%)
  • Donald Trump: +110 (45.2%)

Over the past 90 minutes since our last update, Trump’s chances of being re-elected have jumped from 32.7% to 45.2% — a 12.5% swing.

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