Disturber of Peace Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Looks so close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Disturber of Peace said: Looks so close now. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveSumm Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Nice title! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wethers Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 While Biden has pulled ahead in WI and appears to be somewhat narrowing the gap in MI, Trump is now within 9k votes in NV per Silver. I really hope that is just temporary and a would-be 270-268 win doesn't turn into a 264-274 loss. Of course a big comeback win in GA, PA and/or NC could make that moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Wethers said: While Biden has pulled ahead in WI and appears to be somewhat narrowing the gap in MI, Trump is now within 9k votes in NV per Silver. I really hope that is just temporary and a would-be 270-268 win doesn't turn into a 264-274 loss. Of course a big comeback win in GA, PA and/or NC could make that moot. Looking at Nevada, the Republican counties have had more votes counted than Las Vegas and Reno... so I think the Democrats are safe-ish there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimTuesday Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wethers said: While Biden has pulled ahead in WI and appears to be somewhat narrowing the gap in MI, Trump is now within 9k votes in NV per Silver. I really hope that is just temporary and a would-be 270-268 win doesn't turn into a 264-274 loss. Of course a big comeback win in GA, PA and/or NC could make that moot. Supposedly the remaining ballots are mostly mail-ins from Clark County which should skew Biden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Not concerned about Nevada, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disturber of Peace Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden seems to be somewhat of a favorite atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 If Trump loses WI by just a few thousand votes, and also loses the election. How pissed is he going to be at Jo Jorgensen? Indeed her vote count could easily be greater than a Biden winning margin in MI and PA as well. I don't know how long it's been since a Republican could try to blame losing the election because of a 3rd party "stealing" votes from them. But this could be one where they look for a scapegoat. Libertarian voters, and Jo Jorgensen may need to keep their heads down for a while if Biden ends up taking the win. Biden supporters may want to very quietly raise a glass to Jo to thank her for helping to make Joe the president, if that's the way it goes. There is possibly a case to be made that Perot cost bush Snr his second term. 19% of the vote, that is not a small amount of votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 I just woke up after 3.5 hours of fitful sleep, but I take it Biden's odds have improved a fair bit? It looks AZ was called, GA is still a tossup, NV starting to look good, WI probably Biden, and my home state of MI should pull through? Too tired to figure out if Biden will still need PA after all that (probably yes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impmk2 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said: I just woke up after 3.5 hours of fitful sleep, but I take it Biden's odds have improved a fair bit? It looks AZ was called, GA is still a tossup, NV starting to look good, WI probably Biden, and my home state of MI should pull through? Too tired to figure out if Biden will still need PA after all that (probably yes) No. He's at 270 with Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: I just woke up after 3.5 hours of fitful sleep, but I take it Biden's odds have improved a fair bit? It looks AZ was called, GA is still a tossup, NV starting to look good, WI probably Biden, and my home state of MI should pull through? Too tired to figure out if Biden will still need PA after all that (probably yes) If Biden gets NV, MI and WI then trump can have PA. Biden will want PA though, I would have thought, being his home state. maybe instead of wishfully thinking Ohio was in play he should have tried to shore up PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sci-2 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, IheartIheartTesla said: I just woke up after 3.5 hours of fitful sleep, but I take it Biden's odds have improved a fair bit? It looks AZ was called, GA is still a tossup, NV starting to look good, WI probably Biden, and my home state of MI should pull through? Too tired to figure out if Biden will still need PA after all that (probably yes) I don't think he needs PA? AZ, NV, WI, and MI carry him over...admittedly I'm also looking at this half-awake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gertrude Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Wow. Got sleepy last night and dropped out earlyish. This is not a good morning. I am optimistic Biden prevails, but fuck. I was really hoping for a senate swing too. Fuck my expectations. How do we fix this god-damned mess? I have tried so, so hard to understand the enthusiasm for Trump - not just Rs, but Trump specifically and it is beyond me. Sometimes I think I get close, and I can better understand 2016 votes, but this is now utterly beyond me. And if I don't understand it, how can I work to make it better? Yeah, feeling pretty demoralized, even if Biden pulls the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, The Anti-Targ said: If Biden gets NV, MI and WI then trump can have PA. Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin get Biden to 270-268. Pennsylvania (and Georgia) are the buffers - you really don't want a two vote margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: I just woke up after 3.5 hours of fitful sleep, but I take it Biden's odds have improved a fair bit? It looks AZ was called, GA is still a tossup, NV starting to look good, WI probably Biden, and my home state of MI should pull through? Too tired to figure out if Biden will still need PA after all that (probably yes) Where are you seeing these positive numbers? I see Biden down big in PA and MI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dog-days Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 A small good thing about this morning is that the BBC has come out and described Trump's ramblings about voting fraud as false and unsubstantiated. It seems finally (partly and imperfectly) to be learning from the criticism of its handling of climate change and the Brexit referendum that just repeating what a politician says isn't good journalism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimTuesday Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Relic said: Where are you seeing these positive numbers? I see Biden down big in PA and MI... There is almost 2 million votes outstanding in PA, and MI still has a lot outstanding (not sure exactly how much), but the remaining vote looks really good and apparently democratic turnout in Detroit was massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gertrude said: Wow. Got sleepy last night and dropped out earlyish. This is not a good morning. I am optimistic Biden prevails, but fuck. I was really hoping for a senate swing too. Fuck my expectations. How do we fix this god-damned mess? I have tried so, so hard to understand the enthusiasm for Trump - not just Rs, but Trump specifically and it is beyond me. Sometimes I think I get close, and I can better understand 2016 votes, but this is now utterly beyond me. And if I don't understand it, how can I work to make it better? Yeah, feeling pretty demoralized, even if Biden pulls the win. I think I am right in saying that the only majorities Trump (Republicans in general) has are white people, and low educational achievement people. So some thinking about why that is, might be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 I think I'm gonna try to sleep for a bit. Good news - it's looking very likely Biden is going to get to at least 270. Also, I think shifts we've seen just in the past couple hours in Wisconsin and Michigan should emphasize Biden has a very good chance of still winning Pennsylvania and even Georgia. His margins and turnout of the outstanding urban areas should not be underestimated. The bad news - first, second, third, to infinity - the fact it's this close means we are going to be inundated with court challenges in a number of states from Trump's lawyers, and there's the very real possibility the SC aids and abets Trump stealing the election from the legitimate winner. Less mentioned bad news - it's looking like the GOP will gain seats in the House. I mean WHAT. THE. FUCK. Also, obviously, it's indescribably depressing the the GOP retained the Senate and the current Supreme Court will remain unchanged for at least 2 years and very likely 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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