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US Politics - A Dream of Swing


Disturber of Peace

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Ok the count is indeed looking promising, next up is making sure Trump can't get steal it. 

I still think the risk here has not been overblown, but thus far you're doing better at blocking it than I was expecting. That's a credit to the great many people that have worked their ass off over the last 4 years. Just a bit further and then there's time to catch your breath at least.

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2 minutes ago, Mladen said:

If this continues and Biden wins, I think he will get the most votes for Presidency in the entire history of US, surpassing Obama's record of 69M in 2008.

He undoubtedly will.  Hell, he's only 450,000 votes away from Obama's raw vote right now per AP.

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I just woke up (or got out of bed -- don't know how much I really slept but I made myself stay in the bed for seven hours.

So happy to see Biden did win Nebraska's second district, even though the Republican congressman was re-elected. 

Since the experts in the last few pages seem to think Biden is sure to win I'm feeling a lot better.

In case anyone wants to see the Omaha World Herald's report on Biden's win in our district, here it is:

https://omaha.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/joe-biden-picks-up-2nd-district-electoral-vote-trump-wins-the-other-four-nebraska-votes/article_feb6eb42-95b1-5f13-b04f-598bae9d6544.html#utm_source=omaha.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletter-templates%2Fbreaking&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_content=49e06b3a843c5b40890c27c9249870ce9f18de2c

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3 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

20,000, with that percentage and only mail ballots remaining, is not a small margin. It's done. 

Oh NYT is reporting it at 97%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=FooterNavigation

So is that enough?

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1 minute ago, Gorn said:

If it's 270-268 (Trump wins PA, NC and GA, Biden wins WI, MI and NV), how much should I worry about faithless electors?

None at all.  This isn't 1876.  Although if an elector tried that, they might be subject to some 19th century style justice.

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

So is that enough?

Yes.  Other than the court challenges of course.  Maybe he'll even demand a pointless recount.

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And then the other more directly violence/power based plays. The more a Biden win is solidified in the eyes of the public the less likely that gets though. I think the most likely violence is probably private Trumpists lashing out. I wouldn't want to be a known Dem in the wrong district for the next few weeks.

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I have Trump's lead down to a bit more than 4,000 votes in MI.

I expect it to turn blue soon, thus giving Biden his 270.

Also found this, on Breitbart of all places:

Good morning. In PA, here's where Biden's hopes hang:
He has won 77% of mail ballots counted so far.
There are 1.4m left to count.

IF – if – that pace continues, he'd net a 787k edge – and is trailing by 657k
(and since much of blue PA is left to count, poss he might exceed 77%)

— Jonathan Tamari (@JonathanTamari) November 4, 2020

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Just checked.

AP hasn't called Cunning - Tillis or Collins - Gideon, yet.

I thought both were goners hours ago. @DMC you think either seat can still drop, or are the challengers merely refusing to resign.

Also things look a bit better now in Michigan and Wisconsin apparently. Still way too close a shave there, but a win is a win is a win. So I'D take that.

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Pennsylvania: T+619k ~1330k TBC

Wisconsin: B+21k ~97k TBC

Arizona: B+131k ~468k TBC

Georgia: T+104k ~373k TBC

Michigan: T+27k ~671k TBC

Nevada: B+8k ~164k TBC

WI, MI, Penn & Nev are mostly counting early/mail ballots which heavily skew Dem, Georgia are mostly counting Atlanta which comfortably skews Dem

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

@DMC you think either seat can still drop, or are the challengers merely refusing to resign.

I think Gideon still has a chance.  Not so much with Cunningham, but hey ya never know.  

@Cas Stark - if you weren't already worried about election security:

Quote

MAGGIE KOERTH  NOV. 4, 8:34 AM

Here’s a little news item I missed yesterday — somebody hacked the voter registration records of Florida’s governor. Actually, “hacked” may be a strong word because the 20-year-old who was implicated in the crime told police that he did so by just going to the Secretary of State website and then using publicly available information from DeSantis’s Wikipedia page to gain access to the voter registration record and change the governor’s address. Michael Jordan and LeBron James’s voter registration records were also accessed — by different people than DeSantis’s — but nobody seems to have changed any of their data. What this is showing, though, is that there are some holes in election security. Attackers may not be able to access or change actual votes, but they can mess with the registrations, and that can still be used to disrupt an election or reduce trust in results.

 

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