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US Politics - A Dream of Swing


Disturber of Peace

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2 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

So I'm looking at the Senate races in Georgia, and so far there have been far more votes in the Perdue v Ossoff election that the special one. Why is that? During the runoff election in January, will the entire state vote?

The entire state will vote in the runoff.  It's possible that some people didn't bother voting in that election because they didn't really have a preference.  But it's only a gap of 4.81 million vs 4.65 million, according to DDHQ.  That doesn't sound that weird. 

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26 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah I've been hesitant to mention it because I really do not want to give the impression latinx voters should be "blamed," but their rightward shift will be one of (if not) the main stories of this election.  A slight drop in the margins was expected - and the Biden camp bears responsibility for that - but nobody saw this type of shift coming.

I believe it was Reagan who said Latinos are Republicans, they just don’t know it yet.

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29 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm torn between wondering if "lol, nothing matters" and Democrats might as well swing to their fences with nominees going forward; or if, as far as the electoral college goes, we truly are a center-right nation and Biden's the only one cycle who could've barely hung on in the right states and won (assuming he does in the end).

In my opinion something Democrats -- and nonpartisan groups -- need to be doing more of is talking about getting rid of the electoral college and moving to a direct popular election of the President.  Psychological research on persuasion shows the main way something like this gets done is to start talking about it and consistently make it part of one's goals. That doesn't mean making passing an amendment the #1 legislative priority, but you've got to keep it in people's minds and make the arguments against the E.C. over and over again. This will of course take decades to accomplish -- people need to remember Reinhold Niebuhr's quote: 

Nothing that is worth doing can be achieved in a lifetime; therefore we must be saved by hope.

It seems to me that whenever getting rid of the electoral college is brought up that it just gets immediately dismissed as being "impossible". It's impossible for it to happen next year or even 10 years from now, but you have to start laying the groundwork for it to eventually happen.  There are all sorts of social changes people said were impossible and would never happen when I was young that have come about through decades of patient consistent work. In terms of the issues I've worked for, I know many people who put their heart, souls, and lives into the fight for GLBT rights who never lived to see the progress that's been made, but we would never be as far along the road as we are now without their consistent effort and witness.  Politically engaged people need to start working toward getting rid of the electoral college with the same sort of long term vision. 

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Peters pulled ahead too.  So it looks like Democrats will have at least 48 seats.  And I expect when the rest of GA comes in, it will at least push Purdue below 50% (that's a much lighter lift at this point than Biden winning GA).  So there's a decent chance we're going to be looking at a 48/50 split with two senate seats to maybe, possibly give Biden the votes to do SOMETHING.  But it's a long shot in Georgia.

@Chataya de Fleury et al, hope you like political ads, because there is going to be a TON of money pouring into those races. 

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25 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Guess I'm not being too clear... and again this is a pique of pre coffee fueled rage...I don't think it's a bad thing at all that he would be getting them killed at a faster rate.  It's like that clip in Airplane!, "They bought their ticket, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let them die..."

I'm already at post-morning scotch rage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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A bad night for the bellwethers...

  • First fail for Ohio since 1960
  • First fail for Florida since 1992
  • First fail for Iowa since 2000
  • First fail for Vigo County, Indiana, since 1952
  • First fail for Valencia County, New Mexico since 1948
  • First fail for Westmoreland County, Virginia, since 1960
  • First fail for Ottawa County, Ohio, since 1960
  • First fail for Sawyer County, Wisconsin, since 1960
  • First fail for Juneau County, Wisconsin, since 1960
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9 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I believe it was Reagan who said Latinos are Republicans, they just don’t know it yet.

He was also the last president to give undocumented immigrants amnesty.

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm already at post-morning scotch rage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lightweight.  Haven't slept and been drinking since 3pm yesterday.

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If the end result is a Biden presidency and a split Congress, I’ll just echo Jim Cramer on CNBC this morning.

Tech companies won the right to continue making huge money on the backs of their workers.

The rich won because there will be no tax increase on the 1%.
 

The stock market won because no one will sell their stocks because of the coming increase on capital gains.

The drug companies won because drug prices are not coming down. The medical providers won, Humana won, they will continue making money on the sick. They had blow-out profits and it’s safe to buy the stocks of health providers. Don’t expect improvements to Obama care.

And of course, Covid won, don’t wear masks won, don’t shut down the economy won, it’s only the flu won.

Don’t expect a big stimulus package because the Republicans in the Senate believe it’s a V-shaped recovery. Let’s hope they can all cook because thousands of restaurants are going to close and about 13 M people are going to lose their jobs.

The stock market is very happy with a Republican Senate because socialism and the far left have been stopped.

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Just now, Maithanet said:

The popular vote might not end up being all that off for Biden.  He won't get to +8, but I think Biden +5 or +6 could still happen. 

Yeah I think everybody needs to pump the breaks on "the polls were wrong" torches and pitchforks.  Weird request, but maybe let's hold off on the comparison of the polls to the actual results until the actual results are counted.

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