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US Politics - Poll Position

Relic

By Relic,
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JGP Council Member

JGP

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

CNN saying 50k left in Georgia.

Can confirm [the reporting] as I just saw this myself.

Been flitting through NBC, MSNBC, CNN [and even Fox, for a laugh]

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Werthead Council Member

Werthead

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

How many cured ballots?

Unknown. The entire state was only expecting 3,000 rejected ballots altogether, so probably not enough to be decisive (Snopes has already nuked that claim that 40,000 ballots were waiting to be cured).

5 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

Georgia is still quite feasible for Biden!

Biden now 18,000 behind in Georgia with 50,000 remaining to be counted. I make that by advanced mathematics that he needs 32,000 of those votes to break for him. 64%, tall but not impossible, and I don't think we know where the votes have come from (if they're Atlanta, job done, almost anywhere else, probably not).

Maybe those 3,000 cured ballots (assuming they're all cured, which isn't likely either) could prove crucial.

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Maithanet Council Member

Maithanet

Posted
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1 minute ago, Werthead said:

Biden now 18,000 behind in Georgia with 50,000 remaining to be counted. I make that by advanced mathematics that he needs 43,000 of those votes to break for him.

That seems fairly unlikely, but with the overseas and cured ballots, not impossible. Maybe those 3,000 cured ballots (assuming they're all cured, which isn't likely either) could prove crucial.

Might want to check your math there :)  If Biden is down 18,000, he would need to win 34,000 compared to Trump's 16,000 to be tied.  That is a tall order, but these are very urban areas with a lot of black voters, so it's definitely possibly.

Arizona is always slow, and they're slow again this time.  We won't get another big update until tonight at 9pm ET (and even that probably isn't complete, knowing AZ). 

The most likely scenario is that Biden pulls ahead in PA today, hopefully very soon.  When that happens, there's a good chance the networks call it for him because all the remaining outstanding vote is mail and has been overwhelmingly Biden friendly.  With PA called, Biden is over 270 even without AZ or NV, and we can start calling him president elect. 

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OnionAhaiReborn Council Member

OnionAhaiReborn

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Unknown. The entire state was only expecting 3,000 rejected ballots altogether, so probably not enough to be decisive (Snopes has already nuked that claim that 40,000 ballots were waiting to be cured).

Biden now 18,000 behind in Georgia with 50,000 remaining to be counted. I make that by advanced mathematics that he needs 32,000 of those votes to break for him. 64%, tall but not impossible, and I don't think we know where the votes have come from (if they're Atlanta, job done, almost anywhere else, probably not).

Maybe those 3,000 cured ballots (assuming they're all cured, which isn't likely either) could prove crucial.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/about-200000-absentee-ballots-still-need-to-be-counted-in-georgia/BYGJAXV5FRBGBAMA6JPIC7ZL34/?D

"Over 51,000 absentee ballots remained to be counted in Georgia on Thursday as Joe Biden pulled within about 18,500 votes of President Donald Trump.

Most of these uncounted absentee ballots are concentrated in highly populated areas, led by Fulton County in Atlanta and Chatham County in Savannah."

If this is accurate I think 64% is more than possible. 

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Posted
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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Might want to check your math there :)  If Biden is down 18,000, he would need to win 34,000 compared to Trump's 16,000 to be tied.  That is a tall order, but these are very urban areas with a lot of black voters, so it's definitely possibly.

Arizona is always slow, and they're slow again this time.  We won't get another big update until tonight at 9pm ET (and even that probably isn't complete, knowing AZ). 

The most likely scenario is that Biden pulls ahead in PA today, hopefully very soon.  When that happens, there's a good chance the networks call it for him because all the remaining outstanding vote is mail and has been overwhelmingly Biden friendly.  With PA called, Biden is over 270 even without AZ or NV, and we can start calling him president elect. 

Biden needs to claim victory the minute there is a consensus call on PA to start establishing that narrative first.

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OnionAhaiReborn Council Member

OnionAhaiReborn

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I hope you are right but I stand by my statement.  Georgia has one massive urban area and is mostly rural.  It is a deeply purple state.

It is definitely a purple state, which in itself is an important shift. 

Also interesting is that in an election with a pretty substantial polling error in many states, Georgia's polling, which showed a very close race, appears to have been accurate. 

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Maithanet Council Member

Maithanet

Posted
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1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Biden needs to claim victory the minute there is a consensus call on PA to start establishing that narrative first.

I don't think you need to worry about that.  Biden has been careful to express confidence but keep his powder dry for the big victory moment.  And I think it'll be today. 

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Ormond Council Member

Ormond

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Might want to check your math there :)  If Biden is down 18,000, he would need to win 34,000 compared to Trump's 16,000 to be tied.  That is a tall order, but these are very urban areas with a lot of black voters, so it's definitely possibly.

Arizona is always slow, and they're slow again this time.  We won't get another big update until tonight at 9pm ET (and even that probably isn't complete, knowing AZ). 

The most likely scenario is that Biden pulls ahead in PA today, hopefully very soon.  When that happens, there's a good chance the networks call it for him because all the remaining outstanding vote is mail and has been overwhelmingly Biden friendly.  With PA called, Biden is over 270 even without AZ or NV, and we can start calling him president elect. 

I really hope you are right about Pennsylvania because Nevada and Arizona are scaring me so much right now that I am back to being literally sick with worry that Trump is going to win after all. Haven't had a headache like this in months (and I mean a real physical head aching, not just metaphorically.)

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Ser Scot A Ellison Council Member

Ser Scot A Ellison

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Posted
6 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Biden needs to claim victory the minute there is a consensus call on PA to start establishing that narrative first.

I just dropped a Trumpanista on Facebook who is claiming that holding Trump to his words “the truth is we won” is “promoting a false narrative”.  He’s out their spouting QAnon and “Deep State” bullshit then claims I’m lieing.

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S John Council Member

S John

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I just dropped a Trumpanista on Facebook who is claiming that holding Trump to his words “the truth is we won” is “promoting a false narrative”.  He’s out their spouting QAnon and “Deep State” bullshit then claims I’m lieing.

Q is gonna have to explain why the Dems cheated to get the presidency but left the senate to the R’s.

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VigoTheCarpathian Council Member

VigoTheCarpathian

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Posted
3 hours ago, Hereward said:

No, it’s got to be a clown car.

I picture a scene of him being dragged out of the White House, thrashing like a toddler and desperately trying to cling to the legs of Pence, the gardener, Melania - each firmly and annoyedly kicking him in the face to remove his grasp.  He makes a three stride run for the clown car (with Don Jr. and Eric yelling from the front seats “Get in, dad, this things turbo-chargered!) Trump collapses into the back seat of the clown car, the engine revs to high, and it then drives in high speed reverse into a pillar.  Said clowns are pulled out with jaws of life, covered in their own tears and fear-diarrhea.

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