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US Politics - Poll Position


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10 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I really hope you are right about Pennsylvania because Nevada and Arizona are scaring me so much right now that I am back to being literally sick with worry that Trump is going to win after all. Haven't had a headache like this in months (and I mean a real physical head aching, not just metaphorically.)

I'm sorry you're going through that.  I'm sorry we all are.  I have worries too, certainly, but IMO the only way Trump wins PA is if they stop counting, and there's no sign that is about to happen.

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Its like watching states flip in slow motion - very exciting but also reducing my productivity significantly.

Should note that previous estimates had said 290-400 EVs were possible because of the wafer thin margins in swing states. If you subtract 3-4 points from the popular vote, that spread switches to 253-320ish I imagine, what we are seeing here.

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3 minutes ago, S John said:

Could also be his new Covid strategy. 

Or, more ominously, he's speaking directly to his armed and increasingly anxious base in a very literal call to action.

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Just now, IheartIheartTesla said:

Even better, but we got to wait a couple hours.

Biden needs to win 40k to 21k to take the lead, or 66%.  He has been taking a higher margin than that in the last few dumps from Georgia, but we'll have to wait and see. 

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One thing I'm finding interesting in this election is that the polling was incredibly accurate before COVID hit.  Predictions were razor thing margins in the swing states, and since most voters gave Trump a pass on the economy due to COVID (it's not his fault!), the election became a coin flip.  And given that no scandal has ever hurt Trump (or most Republicans these days), C19 seems to not have had much if any impact except in the way people voted.

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I know no one cares while we wait for the overall outcome to be decided; I barely care either. But worth noting that Biden's margin in Michigan has now climbed to 2.8% and it looks likely to break 3% once all counting is complete. That still means a big polling miss happened, but that's not an especially close outcome either by modern standards.

Kerry won Michigan by 3.4% in 2004 and Gore won it by 5.2% in 2000, so at least for this election it looks like the state has settled back to where it was before the huge swings in the Obama years and 2016. Albeit with the party coalitions looking a bit different.

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1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

We could probably extrapolate the numbers based on current counts ratios to see what we get.

Interesting that the biggest single block there (Chatham) is Savannah, not the Atlanta area. Has Savannah moved toward the left like coastal South Carolina has the last decade? Or should that be worrying?

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Just now, Ormond said:

Interesting that the biggest single block there (Chatham) is Savannah, not the Atlanta area. Has Savannah moved toward the left like coastal South Carolina has the last decade? Or should that be worrying?

Chatham should be good for Biden.  Overall that list of counties left (plus 7400 in Clayton county, the most Democratic county in Georgia) is very blue. 

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5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

We could probably extrapolate the numbers based on current counts ratios to see what we get.

I saw this is missing 7,400 from Clayton Co which is the most Dem heavy county in the state and Biden likely to net 5-6K there.

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21 minutes ago, aceluby said:

One thing I'm finding interesting in this election is that the polling was incredibly accurate before COVID hit.  Predictions were razor thing margins in the swing states, and since most voters gave Trump a pass on the economy due to COVID (it's not his fault!), the election became a coin flip.  And given that no scandal has ever hurt Trump (or most Republicans these days), C19 seems to not have had much if any impact except in the way people voted.

I think if the election were in July or August Trump really would have been decisively defeated. He’s had too much time to massage the narrative and win back elements of his base. The nation as a whole is both used to Covid and tired of it, so it doesn’t shock me that it didn’t rate as the main issue with most voters.

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