Was Kevan Lannister an idiot or a plotter?

[Canon Claude]

One thing I always wondered about when rereading ASOS is why Kevan is so quick to assume Tyrion poisoned Joffrey. And this is something that makes me really dislike Kevan Lannister.

One thing we know about Tywin’s two other brothers is that that both really didn’t get along with Tywin, and they were both kind to Tyrion (I don’t know how correlated those two facts are, so I won’t make claims). Kevan, meanwhile, basically made himself an unofficial appendage to Tywin, almost literally. He lives in Tywin’s shadow as an obedient lapdog. I get all that.

But even then, I don’t see how he could so quickly suspect Tyrion of killing Joffrey. It’s not like Tyrion was the only one on the dais; even Jaime points that out and he wasn’t even there. Even before the trial, Kevan treats Tyrion as if he is guilty, saying “I wish I could believe you” to Tyrion’s face.

What exactly is Kevan’s justification for that hostility? He’s surely aware of how much Tyrion has been made to suffer contempt and abuse by his family, given how close in Tywin’s council he is. Hell, he might even have known about the Tysha conspiracy for all I know (which would automatically make him an insufferable dick). And now the main person to accuse Tyrion of murder is Cersei, of whose true nature Kevan is well aware. He says as much to both Jaime and Cersei in AFFC, and is also very quick to try and remove Cersei from power once Tywin dies. If he’s shrewd enough to recognize their toxic relationship and Cersei’s true nature, then why did he so readily believe her accusations before he knew of anything which came up at the trial?

The only explanations that make sense to me is that (A) he knew about everything Cersei was going to present as “evidence” and gave her the benefit of the doubt for whatever reason, or (B) he was just biding his time, watching shit hit the fan, so that once Tywin’s family ripped each other apart, he would finally be able to become his own man and take charge after so many years as a mere toady.

 

[butterweedstrover]

A good man with a good heart. 

[corbon]

27 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

But even then, I don’t see how he could so quickly suspect Tyrion of killing Joffrey. It’s not like Tyrion was the only one on the dais; even Jaime points that out and he wasn’t even there. Even before the trial, Kevan treats Tyrion as if he is guilty, saying “I wish I could believe you” to Tyrion’s face.

What exactly is Kevan’s justification for that hostility? He’s surely aware of how much Tyrion has been made to suffer contempt and abuse by his family, given how close in Tywin’s council he is.

Yes, but that provide motive to the accused. Its a point against Tyrion's innocence, not in his favour.

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Hell, he might even have known about the Tysha conspiracy for all I know (which would automatically make him an insufferable dick). 

I very much doubt it.

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And now the main person to accuse Tyrion of murder is Cersei, of whose true nature Kevan is well aware. He says as much to both Jaime and Cersei in AFFC, and is also very quick to try and remove Cersei from power once Tywin dies. If he’s shrewd enough to recognize their toxic relationship and Cersei’s true nature, then why did he so readily believe her accusations before he knew of anything which came up at the trial?

Because they actually make sense. And although he's aware of her nature and her dislike of Tyrion, I doubt his view of her is quite as low as the reality. I also expect she actually believes it. She's not faking the accusation to go after Tyrion. Thats makes her accusation more convincing.

Back to the making sense part.
Tyrion has history with Joffrey, a history considerably exacerbated by Joffrey's behaviour just prior to his death.
Tyrion has previously threatened to kill Joffrey, in public (at his own wedding, before the bedding).
Tyrion did in fact pour the wine Joffrey drank, while being abused by Joffrey at the time.
He was literally on the table beside the chalice when Joffrey seized it and drank for the last time.
Tyrion poured out the remains of the wine on the floor after Joff's death, so they couldn't be tested.

Truth is, although we know Tyrion didn't poison the wine, he looks damn guilty on the face of things..

 

[Darth Sidious]

Let's look from his eyes.  Tyrion appears guilty.  Quick to judge?  Okay but not unusual for another to think the same.  He's a loyal assistant to his brother.  Kevan was not a plotter but a man who followed the social order most of the time.  

[The Sunland Lord]

A second man who knew his place. He knew that it's not the end of the world to be second, and accepted that role. Not too smart, not stupid (at all), and competent. However, without his brother he wasn't protected. So they killed him.

[Canon Claude]

2 hours ago, corbon said:

Yes, but that provide motive to the accused. Its a point against Tyrion's innocence, not in his favour.

Because they actually make sense. And although he's aware of her nature and her dislike of Tyrion, I doubt his view of her is quite as low as the reality. I also expect she actually believes it. She's not faking the accusation to go after Tyrion. Thats makes her accusation more convincing.

Back to the making sense part.
Tyrion has history with Joffrey, a history considerably exacerbated by Joffrey's behaviour just prior to his death.
Tyrion has previously threatened to kill Joffrey, in public (at his own wedding, before the bedding).
Tyrion did in fact pour the wine Joffrey drank, while being abused by Joffrey at the time.
He was literally on the table beside the chalice when Joffrey seized it and drank for the last time.
Tyrion poured out the remains of the wine on the floor after Joff's death, so they couldn't be tested.

Truth is, although we know Tyrion didn't poison the wine, he looks damn guilty on the face of things..

 

Jaime knows about the slights against Tyrion better than anyone (apart from Tywin) and he doesn’t suspect Tyrion took revenge.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

4 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Jaime knows about the slights against Tyrion better than anyone (apart from Tywin) and he doesn’t suspect Tyrion took revenge.

Sure he does. He asks Tyrion directly if he did it or not. 

You're mistaking Jaime's guilty conscience for faith in his brother's innocence. Jaime just feels remorseful for his own actions in ruining Tyrion's life, so he wants to make amends. He wasn't giving Tyrion the benefit of the doubt, it didn't matter to him whether Tyrion did it or not, he just wanted to pay his debts. When it didn't work, and when Tyrion swears vengeance on his whole family, he decides to find out whether or not Tyrion was guilty. Tyrion lies, of course, but that's beside the point.

Of course, I don't know what kind of response Jaime expected from Tyrion when he told him, but the point is that Jaime wasn't trying to save Tyrion because he thought Tyrion was innocent. 

[Canon Claude]

4 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Sure he does. He asks Tyrion directly if he did it or not. 

You're mistaking Jaime's guilty conscience for faith in his brother's innocence. Jaime just feels remorseful for his own actions in ruining Tyrion's life, so he wants to make amends. He wasn't giving Tyrion the benefit of the doubt, it didn't matter to him whether Tyrion did it or not, he just wanted to pay his debts. When it didn't work, and when Tyrion swears vengeance on his whole family, he decides to find out whether or not Tyrion was guilty. Tyrion lies, of course, but that's beside the point.

Of course, I don't know what kind of response Jaime expected from Tyrion when he told him, but the point is that Jaime wasn't trying to save Tyrion because he thought Tyrion was innocent. 

If Jaime was only trying to assuage his own guilty conscience, then why would he openly defend Tyrion to so many people? He disputes the claims to the rest of the Kingsguard and even refuses Cersei’s request that he kill Tyrion. And this is the guy that shoved his sword into his own king’s back and who led an army into the Riverlands in a flagrant act of war against the King’s Peace.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

Just now, Canon Claude said:

If Jaime was only trying to assuage his own guilty conscience, then why would he openly defend Tyrion to so many people? He disputes the claims to the rest of the Kingsguard and even refuses Cersei’s request that he kill Tyrion. And this is the guy that shoved his sword into his own king’s back and who led an army into the Riverlands in a flagrant act of war against the King’s Peace.

Yes and no. Jaime isn't that same man anymore by the time he returns to King's Landing. 

He's just come home from his long journeys when Cersei insists that he kill Tyrion. He's not in a good headspace, he's having an identity crisis, and he does feel protective of Tyrion despite his sister's claims of murder. And besides, he never loved Joffrey anyway.

As for the Kingsguard, remember that at the start of the chapter, he's ruminating over his accomplishments and his reputation. He's also thinking about how quickly Loras was to accuse Brienne of a murder that she didn't commit. There's a lot going on in his head, and he's trying to make some sense of it. So yes, whether Tyrion is guilty or not, Jaime wants to do right by him and avoid making a hasty decision based on how things seem.

Again, Jaime only asks Tyrion for the truth after it's clear that Tyrion has no qualms about taking a bloody revenge on his whole family for what happened. And Tyrion decides to become the monster that everyone's always called him.

[Lord Varys]

Tyrion is the only suspect they have and they have a ton of circumstantial evidence that he did it, not to mention motive and opportunity.

Tyrion himself cannot come up with another suspect nor with witnesses (Sansa aside) who could vouch for his innocence.

I'd expect that if Cersei had not arrested Tyrion Tywin would also have believed that Tyrion did it ... although he may have not arrested and tried him, following the Tyrell 'he choked on his pie' narrative because the scandal of Tyrion's trial was definitely a stain on Lannister honor, weakening the house's standing considerably.

Kevan clearly doesn't want to believe that Tyrion did it ... but by the time they talk he is pretty much convinced that he most likely did it due to the evidence he saw and the testimony he heard so far.

[corbon]

1 hour ago, Canon Claude said:

Jaime knows about the slights against Tyrion better than anyone (apart from Tywin) and he doesn’t suspect Tyrion took revenge.

Jaime has a much better understanding of Tyrion' true character than Kevan does - which merely means he has some doubts as to Tyrion;s automatic guilt. And a more accurate perspective on Cersei's level of unhinged-ness I think.

Aside from that though Jaime is still not convinced Tyrion is innocent. He's just learned recently that things are not as simple as they seem, as he's treated them his whole life. And he decides to protect his brother due to his own guilt. @Floki of the Ironborn gave a solid rundown on Jaime's state of mind.

[James Steller]

All this does make me wonder when exactly Kevan figured out that Jaime was the father of Cersei’s children and whether Tywin knew as well. 

[Foot_Of_The_King]

6 hours ago, corbon said:

Truth is, although we know Tyrion didn't poison the wine, he looks damn guilty on the face of things..

If we didn’t have his POV, I would’ve thought Tyrion probably was the poisoner. 

[Thandros]

The thing is there is a lot of evidence to suggest Tyrion could be the poisoner. Bad history with his sister. An expressed desire to hurt her. He did steal at least one poison from Pycelle so another could easily be possible. He was in the perfect position to poison Joffrey and they had horribly bad history between the two of them. Even his obvious position could be taken as a sort of double bluff. I'm too clever to be caught in such an obvious position when poisoning someone could be the technically safest place to be if others know you are smart enough to not get caught with blood on your hands. There first assumption might be that he's being framed.

Kevan is also very much a loyal subordinate of Tywin while he's alive. Whatever doubts he had over Tyrion and his possible guilt he may have suppressed them at Tywin's urging or on reflection of the large amount of (dubious) evidence Cersei had gathered. The only person who look more guilty is Sansa and Tyrion and Sansa were married so it wouldn't be unreasonable that the two were working together and Tyrion's escape plan simply failed.

We can only say with certain otherwise because we have Tyrion's POV to tell us he didn't and Sansa's POV to tell us who was really behind it.

[Canon Claude]

4 hours ago, Thandros said:

The thing is there is a lot of evidence to suggest Tyrion could be the poisoner. Bad history with his sister. An expressed desire to hurt her. He did steal at least one poison from Pycelle so another could easily be possible. He was in the perfect position to poison Joffrey and they had horribly bad history between the two of them. Even his obvious position could be taken as a sort of double bluff. I'm too clever to be caught in such an obvious position when poisoning someone could be the technically safest place to be if others know you are smart enough to not get caught with blood on your hands. There first assumption might be that he's being framed.

Kevan is also very much a loyal subordinate of Tywin while he's alive. Whatever doubts he had over Tyrion and his possible guilt he may have suppressed them at Tywin's urging or on reflection of the large amount of (dubious) evidence Cersei had gathered. The only person who look more guilty is Sansa and Tyrion and Sansa were married so it wouldn't be unreasonable that the two were working together and Tyrion's escape plan simply failed.

We can only say with certain otherwise because we have Tyrion's POV to tell us he didn't and Sansa's POV to tell us who was really behind it.

Yes, but would Kevan have known all that before the trial? He wasn’t there for much of the events you described. The trial was when the information became public knowledge, but Kevan was already convinced before it happened. That quote about wishing he could believe Tyrion happens before anyone testified. How much could Kevan have known?

[Lord Lannister]

Tyrion himself said Uncle Kevan never had a thought that Tywin hadn't put there. Kevan was his brother's man through and through. I always took "I wish I could believe you" to have a double meaning at the appearance of Tyrion's guilt and being unable to go against what his brother said.

[Bernie Mac]

16 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

One thing I always wondered about when rereading ASOS is why Kevan is so quick to assume Tyrion poisoned Joffrey. And this is something that makes me really dislike Kevan Lannister.

Why? Is Kevan not allowed to inform an opinion?

Kevan likely knows more about Tyrion than we the reader do, but even we have witnessed him wish his father and sister dead (AGOT) and threaten the lives of his nephews and Kevan's own son Lancel. We have seen him murder a blackmailer who got in his way and threaten to murder Slynt's innocent children if Slynt did not give up his freedom and join the Watch. Tyrion has in his employee savages who will kill somone for looking at them wrong and Bronn, who is every bit as evil as Slynt, just with a more charming exterior.

Tyrion is impulsive and rash when it comes to his family and is more than capable of murdering Joffrey. So I'm not actually sure why you would dislike Kevan for having an opinion on Tyrion that is a pretty accurate account of Tyrion.

To be blunt, I think you have allowed yourself to be conned by Tyrion's wit and self-pity in his POV chapters. As I can not see why you are under the impression that Tyrion could not murder Joffrey.

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One thing we know about Tywin’s two other brothers is that that both really didn’t get along with Tywin, and they were both kind to Tyrion (I don’t know how correlated those two facts are, so I won’t make claims).

We have no evidence that Tygett was any kinder to Tyrion than Kevan was.

All we know is that Tyrion and Jaime's favourite uncle was Gerion. Given Gerion was carefree this seems a given. It is not a slight on Kevan.

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Kevan, meanwhile, basically made himself an unofficial appendage to Tywin, almost literally. He lives in Tywin’s shadow as an obedient lapdog. I get all that.

This seems an extreme take

• Tyegtt left and seems to have lived with the Marbrands, trying to make his own rep in life
• Gerion was carefree and then went on an adventure, leaving his bastard daughter in Tywin's care

Kevan is acting like many younger sons do to their older Lord brothers, he is serving the House. That does not make him a lapdog. Are the younger brothers of Lord Tallhart and Glover lapdogs?

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But even then, I don’t see how he could so quickly suspect Tyrion of killing Joffrey.

He does not. He hears evidence and then comes to that conclusion.

Lovely. "I see." He shifted in his seat. "I am curious. You were always a fair man, Uncle. What convinced you?"

"Why steal Pycelle's poisons, if not to use them?" Ser Kevan said bluntly. "And Lady Merryweather saw—"

 

So he is aware of Tyrion's threats (Cersei reveals those to Tywin at the start of the book), is more than aware that Tyrion dislikes the King, has the means to poison him and was actually in his vicinity.

 

This is a case of Occam's razor.

 

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It’s not like Tyrion was the only one on the dais; even Jaime points that out and he wasn’t even there. Even before the trial, Kevan treats Tyrion as if he is guilty, saying “I wish I could believe you” to Tyrion’s face.

Kevan is likely pretty informed about Tyrion as a person, certainly more so than the reader. Lancel, Kevan's son, has no doubt that when Tyrion blackmails him to obey him and betray the Queen or he will reveal the truth that will have him killed he is serious.

If Kevan's son considers Tyrion willing to have family who get in his way murdered, why would Kevan not?

 

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What exactly is Kevan’s justification for that hostility? He’s surely aware of how much Tyrion has been made to suffer contempt and abuse by his family, given how close in Tywin’s council he is.

In their society, probably not. Jaime was not aware of the gangrape, so it seems unlikely that Kevan did.

Other than that Tywin does not treat his son with contempt. I'd wager that between father and son, Kevan sympathizes with Tywin more than Tyrion. Tyrion is a son with a playboy like reputation who regularly refuses his fathers/Lords orders and does as he pleases. Kevan would never talk to Tywin like Tyrion does. Lancel would never talk to Kevan like Tyrion to his father, or Robb and his siblings to Ned.

Tyrion does get contempt from the Queen and King, yet he gives as good as he takes. He's not some victim when it comes to this and given they are both above him in station, I doubt Kevan is sympathatic to Tyrion. Anyone else saying what Tyrion has to Cersei and Joffrey would be without a tongue, at the very least.

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Hell, he might even have known about the Tysha conspiracy for all I know (which would automatically make him an insufferable dick). 

He might have. But I doubt it.

Nor do I think he'd have seen it in the way that we do, as a reprehensible evil act on Tywin's part. This is a caste society, Tysha a homeless peasant. There would be very little sympathy from him on her part.

Just to remind people, Ned Stark himself was relieved when it was revealed that Sandor had murdered the butcher boy rather than Arya's (recent) pet direwolf. And Ned is by all accounts a good guy for the characters we have been introduced to.

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And now the main person to accuse Tyrion of murder is Cersei, of whose true nature Kevan is well aware.

Cersei is convinced he murdered her son. She is not trying to frame Tyrion, allow the real murderer to get off scott free. She is convinced of his guilt because he has made threats on both of her sons lives, poisoned Cersei and gone out of his way to make her vulnerable and strip her of her supporters.

Cersei may be a paranoid mess come AFFC. but her reasons for suspecting Tyrion are more than sound.

Jaime, who loves Tyrion more than anyone, is not convinced of his innocence.

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He says as much to both Jaime and Cersei in AFFC, and is also very quick to try and remove Cersei from power once Tywin dies. If he’s shrewd enough to recognize their toxic relationship and Cersei’s true nature, then why did he so readily believe her accusations before he knew of anything which came up at the trial?

Pretty much everyone thought it was Tyrion. Tyrion himself can't think of a better suspect other than his wife.

You seem to be ignoring every other character in this.

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The only explanations that make sense to me is that (A) he knew about everything Cersei was going to present as “evidence”

He's likely to know a lot of it. Why would it be kept secret from him? He'd also be well aware of the animosity between uncle and nephew, of Pycelle's imprisonment, of Tyrion's threats and Tyrion's own character.

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and gave her the benefit of the doubt for whatever reason,

It it not about Cersei. You are acting like Cersei is the reason Tyrion is the main suspect, she is not. Tyrion was the perfect patsy to the Tyrells and Littlefinger because there was so much evidence pointing towards him.

Varys, not Cersei, is the most damaging.

Powdered, primped, and smelling of rosewater, the Spider rubbed his hands one over the other all the time he spoke. Washing my life away, Tyrion thought, as he listened to the eunuch's mournful account of how the Imp had schemed to part Joffrey from the Hound's protection and spoken with Bronn of the benefits of having Tommen as king. Half-truths are worth more than outright lies. And unlike the others, Varys had documents; parchments painstakingly filled with notes, details, dates, whole conversations. So much material that its recitation took all day, and so much of it damning. Varys confirmed Tyrion's midnight visit to Grand Maester Pycelle's chambers and the theft of his poisons and potions, confirmed the threat he'd made to Cersei the night of their supper, confirmed every bloody thing but the poisoning itself.

Tywin and Kevan may well have been told of some of this, all of this even before Joffrey was killed.

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or (B) he was just biding his time, watching shit hit the fan, so that once Tywin’s family ripped each other apart, he would finally be able to become his own man and take charge after so many years as a mere toady.

 

If that was the case he'd not have asked for Darry instead of Riverrun. He'd not have refused to be Tommen's Hand, not suggested Cersei see sense and make one of Rowan or Tarly her Hand. Cersei was relatively secure when Kevan left, she would have been even more so with her uncle's advice. Instead she chooses to use the money for the loan repayments to the Faith and Iron Bank on a new Navy, murders the High Septon and gets a fanatic in his place, frames Margaery, alientates the Tyrells, sends off a Lannister army to be slaughtered with Loras.

Kevan's either the same age as his father when he died, or older. He's not got long left himself and nothing has suggested that he wants to see Tommen, Cersei and Myrcella die. He tries his best to salvage the mess Cersei has caused.

Kevan is loyal to his family, loyal to his brother's legacy. Nothing suggests he was trying to grab power. Someone scheming like that would not have been honest with both Cersei and Jaime in how he felt about them in AFFC. He'd have accepted the Handship and used those powers to strengthen himself.

[TheLastWolf]

Idiot

Spoiler

What's the effing doubt about it?

 

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

One thing I always wondered about when rereading ASOS is why Kevan is so quick to assume Tyrion poisoned Joffrey. And this is something that makes me really dislike Kevan Lannister.

One thing we know about Tywin’s two other brothers is that that both really didn’t get along with Tywin, and they were both kind to Tyrion (I don’t know how correlated those two facts are, so I won’t make claims). Kevan, meanwhile, basically made himself an unofficial appendage to Tywin, almost literally. He lives in Tywin’s shadow as an obedient lapdog. I get all that.

But even then, I don’t see how he could so quickly suspect Tyrion of killing Joffrey. It’s not like Tyrion was the only one on the dais; even Jaime points that out and he wasn’t even there. Even before the trial, Kevan treats Tyrion as if he is guilty, saying “I wish I could believe you” to Tyrion’s face.

What exactly is Kevan’s justification for that hostility? He’s surely aware of how much Tyrion has been made to suffer contempt and abuse by his family, given how close in Tywin’s council he is. Hell, he might even have known about the Tysha conspiracy for all I know (which would automatically make him an insufferable dick). And now the main person to accuse Tyrion of murder is Cersei, of whose true nature Kevan is well aware. He says as much to both Jaime and Cersei in AFFC, and is also very quick to try and remove Cersei from power once Tywin dies. If he’s shrewd enough to recognize their toxic relationship and Cersei’s true nature, then why did he so readily believe her accusations before he knew of anything which came up at the trial?

The only explanations that make sense to me is that (A) he knew about everything Cersei was going to present as “evidence” and gave her the benefit of the doubt for whatever reason, or (B) he was just biding his time, watching shit hit the fan, so that once Tywin’s family ripped each other apart, he would finally be able to become his own man and take charge after so many years as a mere toady.

 

Virtually everybody in the capital thinks Tyrion did it. They all (mistakenly) believe the wine was poisoned, and Tyrion was the only person beside Joffrey to touch it -- and then he spilled out the evidence after the fact. If you find the dead body in the parlor with a knife in its back and you pull the knife out and are standing there holding it when the police burst in, it's pretty tough to argue your innocence.

But even so, Kevan is not saying he is completely convinced of Tyrion's guilt, just that he's having trouble believing he is innocent. And he is giving him every chance to prove his innocence by asking for witnesses or anybody who can testify in his defense.

So I don't see any hidden agenda here. It's Kevan being Kevan, doing Tywin's bidding by giving Tyrion every opportunity to explain himself.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

53 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Virtually everybody in the capital thinks Tyrion did it. They all (mistakenly) believe the wine was poisoned, and Tyrion was the only person beside Joffrey to touch it -- and then he spilled out the evidence after the fact. If you find the dead body in the parlor with a knife in its back and you pull the knife out and are standing there holding it when the police burst in, it's pretty tough to argue your innocence.

But even so, Kevan is not saying he is completely convinced of Tyrion's guilt, just that he's having trouble believing he is innocent. And he is giving him every chance to prove his innocence by asking for witnesses or anybody who can testify in his defense.

So I don't see any hidden agenda here. It's Kevan being Kevan, doing Tywin's bidding by giving Tyrion every opportunity to explain himself.

Okay... I agree with most of what you said, but come on. Kevan giving Tyrion every opportunity to explain himself was NOT Tywin's bidding. Tywin wanted the excuse to finally get rid of Tyrion once and for all. It's debatable whether he'd have really given Tyrion the chance to go north to the Wall, but I don't believe it, personally. Tywin's treatment of Tyion is textbook abusive in so many ways, with so many examples to verify it. Kevan was way more open to Tyrion's case than Tywin ever was.