US Politics - Count All The Posts

[Fez]

12 minutes ago, Ormond said:

OK, you all, Kornacki on MSNBC was scaring me within the last hour by explaining that one reason Pennsylvania wasn't called yet was that in addition to the mail-in ballots still to be counted, there are about 100,000 provisional ballots to be counted. And unlike in past elections, the few provisional ballots counted so far are breaking much more toward the Republicans than usual. If the provisionals end up being for Trump as much as the mail-ins are for Biden, Trump might make up his deficit. 

Does that seem reasonable to those on this thread who are more expert than I am?

I think the provisionals counted so far have not been overwhelming pro-Biden the way the mail-in ballots have been. But they haven't been overwhelming pro-Trump either; I think its been closer to an even split (and in pro-Trump counties to boot). Which is fine considering Biden has the lead and still has more mail-in ballots to go.

But I guess I understand the networks wanting to see a few more provisionals be completed to be sure.

[Jace, Extat]

3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Still to be confirmed. You have at least one and possibly two runoffs for Georgia in January, which after Arizona would get you to 50. It was sounding implausible but then Georgia seems to have pulled it out of the fire this time around. Even if Georgia were to slip back in the Presidential race, it's so fired up Georgia Dems that who knows.

 

Cute.

[Fragile Bird]

9 minutes ago, Ormond said:

OK, you all, Kornacki on MSNBC was scaring me within the last hour by explaining that one reason Pennsylvania wasn't called yet was that in addition to the mail-in ballots still to be counted, there are about 100,000 provisional ballots to be counted. And unlike in past elections, the few provisional ballots counted so far are breaking much more toward the Republicans than usual. If the provisionals end up being for Trump as much as the mail-ins are for Biden, Trump might make up his deficit. 

Does that seem reasonable to those on this thread who are more expert than I am?

Hmmm, the NYT says it’s about 92.5k provisional ballots, and that normally there would be greater numbers voting for Biden because the most provisional ballots are usually in Philadelphia. However, because this was the first time PA did the kind of mass mail-in voting they did, no one really knows.

Also, so many people were worried about their mail-in votes not arriving in time, they came in to vote on a provisional ballot and no one knows how many could be discarded because their mail-in vote arrived in time and was counted.

[Lollygag]

On the polling being based on hating the media and not answering - the GOP's and Trump's polls were showing approximately the same thing, so if so they'd be lying to everyone.

On the side, hating the media isn't mutually exclusive to any number of other possible factors. Quit monolithing the Trumpists. There are a lot more factors than you think at work here. For any given single answer, it’s only one piece of the puzzle at best.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

28 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

 

“Ah, but you see he implied Hitler was bad when he was gushing about the furor!

Since when is being a fan nazi stuff indicative of racism? PC Outrage!”

Says conservative trying to excuse why the gop just gave a Nazi-sympathizer political power.

[Maithanet]

On PA provisionals:

I haven't heard anything that provisionals are going overwhelmingly for Trump, I would need a source for that.  My understanding is that it varies a lot by state, and how that state approaches mail voting.  In the case of PA in particular, they have a history of having lots of provisional ballots from Philly, and those are (not surprisingly) very Democratic.  Obviously Philly isn't the whole state, but I'm very skeptical that provisionals will give Trump a boost.  People who know more about elections than me like Nate Cohn were definitely assuming that the provisionals would significantly increase Biden's lead in PA. 

[OnionAhaiReborn]

2 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

On the polling being based on hating the media and not answering - the GOP's and Trump's polls were showing approximately the same thing, so if so they'd be lying to everyone.

 

 

 

I've never been contacted by a pollster (I don't answer my phone so I never will be), but I'm pretty sure they don't announce that they're polling on behalf of a specific campaign if they are. 

[Ormond]

1 minute ago, Lollygag said:

On the polling being based on hating the media and not answering - the GOP's and Trump's polls were showing approximately the same thing, so if so they'd be lying to everyone.

On the side, hating the media isn't mutually exclusive to any number of other possible factors. Quit monolithing the Trumpists. There are a lot more factors than you think at work here. For any given single answer, it’s only one piece of the puzzle at best.

 

I have never had a pollster call me who identified themselves as being a poll commissioned either by Democrats or Republicans. That would of course be something a pollster would not want to do if they wanted to get accurate answers. Sometimes I have suspicions about a poll based on the questions, but you have to be answering some of the poll's questions to get those suspicions.

So the Trump voters who would refuse to answer ANY question from any pollster are going to not be included in the GOP's polls, either. And of course they aren't ALL are even the majority of people voting for Trump, just enough to swing the poll to be less accurate. I'm not "monolithing" Trumpists, just trying to explain the motives of those who do refuse to answer polls.

[Lollygag]

2 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

I've never been contacted by a pollster (I don't answer my phone so I never will be), but I'm pretty sure they don't announce that they're polling on behalf of a specific campaign if they are. 

I haven't either (also don't answer my phone), but upthread (forget who), it was suggested it went like, "Hi, I'm from the New York Times..." [hang up]. Somehow I think if the GOP and Trump's campaign were polling their own and they were regularly hung up on, this would come up as a problem for them. They seem as thrown as everyone.

[Werthead]

A couple more small gains for Trump in Arizona. Not quite where he needs to be to get back in the lead, but not far off either. Biden's lead is down to under 41,000.

Some more tiny Biden gains in Georgia, pushing his lead to 1,603. 4,177 to count.

Biden's gain in Nevada at 20,137 with 85,000 votes to count. Nevada's biggest periodical has looked at where the votes are left to be counted and have already called it for Biden, saying Trump has no credible path to victory based on Nevada's normal voting tendencies.

Pennsylvania not really moving, Biden up to 13,662 lead. Trump's vote share trend is at half where it needs to be to plausibly make up the difference.

Second Georgia Senate race moving into run-off territory, but not confirmed yet.

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

On the polling being based on hating the media and not answering - the GOP's and Trump's polls were showing approximately the same thing, so if so they'd be lying to everyone.

First, you're definitely right - GOP/Trump's polls were just as off as everyone else's (which, btw, is looking far far less off in the aggregate than people assumed 50-65 hours ago).  Second, it's not that they're lying to pollsters, it's that simply there is a significant subset of the population that will not respond to polls and that population clearly appears to significantly trend Republican.

8 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

I've never been contacted by a pollster (I don't answer my phone so I never will be), but I'm pretty sure they don't announce that they're polling on behalf of a specific campaign if they are. 

They do not.

[Mindwalker]

28 minutes ago, argonak said:

Seems silly to blame anyone when the GOP just turned out so hugely.  If anyone deserves some blame, its the pollsters who seem to have been unable to account for people being so ashamed of Trump they won't answer in a poll, but still voting for him anyway.

And Cunningham, who couldn't postpone his affair/ epic love story (I don't care) until after the election.

[AverageGuy]

 

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Second, it's not that they're lying to pollsters, it's that they simply there is a significant subset of the population that will not respond to polls and that population clearly appears to significantly trend Republican.

Been a registered Democrat all my life and always hang up on pollsters (when on call I don't always have the choice not to answer unknown numbers). Only so much life to live and don't want to waste my time. We'll see the real results in the elections anyway.

[Zorral]

Biden remains calm, photogenically calm too, and counsels "Patience. Allow all the votes to be counted."  This is excellent.  No premature anything here, thus even less legal ground for Them (and the clowns They call lawyers) to stand.  This exudes confidence --  in stark contrast to the flailing desperation of Them. This is something the Dems are definitely doing right.

But we sure as hell gotta get this act together to dilute the white supremacist racial and sexual hatreds, because the next one They throw up is gonna be a lot more competent than this hairball & Co.  And look, look, just look! at how effective They have been in destroying even the pretenses of what US democracy.

[Lollygag]

4 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I have never had a pollster call me who identified themselves as being a poll commissioned either by Democrats or Republicans. That would of course be something a pollster would not want to do if they wanted to get accurate answers. Sometimes I have suspicions about a poll based on the questions, but you have to be answering some of the poll's questions to get those suspicions.

So the Trump voters who would refuse to answer ANY question from any pollster are going to not be included in the GOP's polls, either. And of course they aren't ALL are even the majority of people voting for Trump, just enough to swing the poll to be less accurate. I'm not "monolithing" Trumpists, just trying to explain the motives of those who do refuse to answer polls.

That's what I would think but someone said otherwise above. It's *very* hard to believe that the GOP and Republican campaigns were unaware of this with their own folks if this was the only reason.

My point is that there's a complicated mix of motives with them, and there's no single easy answer.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, AverageGuy said:

Been a registered Democrat all my life and always hang up on pollsters (when on call I don't always have the choice not to answer unknown numbers).

Yes, the amount of people overall that simply are much less likely to answer the phone is obviously vastly increasing and transcends partisanship.  I can't remember the last time I answered the phone for a number I didn't recognize.  This is maybe why mixed methods - online, text messaging, etc. - would be more optimal.  But I dunno, it's gonna take a lot of looking into before anyone comes up with a reliable solution.  It's also just that the polling error in the past few cycles - at least in the "midwest" - seems to clearly indicate this population decidedly leans Republican. 

[Jace, Extat]

Or maybe polls don't decide elections and shouldn't really be produced as clickbait to drive the election media machine.

Just a thought.

[Mindwalker]

Just because this photo rocks.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

shouldn't really be produced as clickbait to drive the election media machine.

Cute.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

I am trying to think through what good responses to relatives will inevitably be around an apparent Trump loss.  Ideas?

My own impulse is to point to logical inconsistencies and say “If this situation happened, with Biden being on the shit end of the stick, would you be alright with him refusing to concede and threatening lawsuits and calling fraud on Trump votes/voters? Because no one can prove fraud, pro or anti Trump, it’s all hearsay. Or are you cool when someone fakes a foul and storms off the court when it doesn’t work” (or some other sportsball analogy that needs work)