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59 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

If I'm not mistaken for Trump to take AZ and NV he needs 70% ish of the remaining vote to go his way. You are all saying that can't happen in NV. Can it happen in AZ? For whatever reason I think AZ + NV are the least socially and litigiously disruptive paths to Biden winning. So that's how I would prefer to see it get confirmed.

Arizona is back in the margin again for Trump to take it. Biden's lead down to 39,400 with 227,000 to count. The last drop put Trump back in contention. A few more big drops from blue areas would put Biden ahead again but it's unclear if there's any left. There was a lot of Tucson votes left uncounted a while back but it's unclear if those pro-Biden bumps last night were from there (if so there wasn't a huge number, so there could be more to come). So Arizona I think is now well into the too close to call category.

Georgia's lead has edged up to 4,162 and they've had to pull the "how many votes to count" number because that pushed them over the number of votes left. So Georgia is in complete wilderness territory until they say it's over or announce how many ballots are left. Biden could win it at anytime or Trump could pull it back or they could suddenly announce there's another 30,000 votes to count. Who knows.

Nevada seems to be almost out of reach. It was a 20,137-vote lead for Biden with 100,000 votes left and most of the remaining votes for Vegas. Some lists I'm seeing have put the votes left to count up by 40,000 votes though, so no idea what's going on there.

Pennsylvania with a 14,541 vote lead for Biden, 113,000 votes left to be counted and still heavy trending in Biden's favour but there are some reasons for (very mild) doubts as related previously.

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Are both Georgia Senate seats going to a run off?

One is confirmed for a run-off, the other isn't yet but is close. The Republicans are arguing heavily against it because they've just woken up to the direction of travel in Georgia and the risk that a race without Trump on the ticket could go against them. There's a lot of apathetic soft-Republicans out there who woke up for Trump but without him might go back into hibernation (although for control of the Senate they could be won over), whilst of course Georgia Democrats are going to be a bit fired up.

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2 minutes ago, Castellan said:

such a pity if Arizona goes. would have been a nice farewell present from McCain to Trump.

I saw something to the effect that the county that flipped Georgia was part of John Lewis's district. Much more fitting fuck-you to Trump, IMO.

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Why is the media still so gddmned scared of him that they won't come right out and say it when gops are? But then the media has enabled him from the jump -- and I mean decades previous already to 2016.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Yeah Clayton county early this morning.

Anyone else notice that DMC rarely includes the more provocative statements when he quotes a post? 

Dude, come on. Lean in to that whiskey and get down with us. :p

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2 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Anyone else notice that DMC rarely includes the more provocative statements when he quotes a post? 

Dude, come on. Lean in to that whiskey and get down with us. :p

Heh.  That may be so at times, but trust me, there's many posters here that can tell you when I get drunk enough I can be quite..provocative.  Gotten in trouble a number of times for it.

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16 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

I saw something to the effect that the county that flipped Georgia was part of John Lewis's district. Much more fitting fuck-you to Trump, IMO.

ooh yes

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8 minutes ago, DMC said:

Heh.  That may be so at times, but trust me, there's many posters here that can tell you when I get drunk enough I can be quite..provocative.  Gotten in trouble a number of times for it.

Remember you are only getting away with it, because you're poll guy. Once the election is over and you are out of office, mods will censor you like you are a former POTUS on Twitter. :D

I am pretty sure, I could've arrived at that punchline in a more elegant way, but just like Biden and the Oval Office, we got there in the end. And it did take a significantly lower numbers of years - and money.

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I don't know how it is possible, but Phily continues to be both amazing and awful (not because of either of these photos, just because it is still Phily) at the same time.

I know some folks don't particularly like The Intercept, but Ryan Grim is a good reporter, and he has an interesting article on attacks against left wing Democrats, and how it plays with reality.

https://theintercept.com/2020/11/06/election-biden-democrats-progressives/

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Party leader James Clyburn, the Democrat from South Carolina whose endorsement of Biden launched him to the nomination, warned on the call that if Democrats ran on Medicare for All and other progressive issues, they would lose the upcoming Georgia Senate special elections that will determine control of the upper chamber and dictate whether Biden and the Democrats have the possibility of implementing a legislative agenda. (Alaska’s Senate seat, a contest between Republican Sen. Al Sullivan and independent challenger Al Gross, is still up for grabs. While Sullivan is currently ahead, the count of the remaining 44 percent of votes — absentee ballots — won’t begin until Monday.)

Even so, progressives defended a number of Republican-leaning seats. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter won reelection by 8 points in California’s 45th District, covering Orange County and Irvine, which she flipped in 2018. Further south, Rep. Mike Levin, who flipped the 49th District two years ago, won reelection, beating his Republican opponent by 12 points. Both are co-sponsors of the Medicare for All bill in the House, as are Jared Golden in Maine, Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona, Josh Harder in California, and Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania, who all won reelection in swing districts. And Rep. Tom Malinowski also defended his northern New Jersey district with an 8-point win, again holding onto a district he flipped in 2018. Cook Political Report had rated both Porter and Malinowski’s districts as R+3, and Levin’s as R+1.

Democrats insisting that progressive issues are losing policies have yet to articulate what their winning agenda would be, now that getting Trump out of the White House is no longer the mission. As attention will shift to the Georgia special elections, can Democrats rally the troops simply to help Biden confirm slightly more progressive cabinet nominees? What is the Democratic agenda that the party can pledge to voters to inspire them to vote in that January special election?

From the progressive perspective, it’s an easy question to answer, and Ocasio-Cortez has made the argument herself repeatedly: It’s better to have Democrats in control so that the left can push them to be better, whereas Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has shown himself immune to protest from the left. But that’s not a message from the party itself.

 

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7 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Remember you are only getting away with it, because you're poll guy. Once the election is over and you are out of office, mods will censor you like you are a former POTUS on Twitter. :D

Well, if I'm "poll guy," and the mods react with the same misplaced and visceral anger to pollsters that the general public does when elections don't go precisely their way, then I'm frankly shocked I haven't been permabanned already.

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1 minute ago, Myshkin said:

Does anyone here know if I can be kicked off Twitter for telling the President of the United States to eat a dick?

 

A mutual of mine did for pretty much exactly that this morning so I'd say don't risk it, but on the other hand getting banned off twitter for calling Trump rude names is an honoured club (of which I am a proud member I made a new account ummmmmmmmmm)

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PleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGod

 

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1 minute ago, Trebla said:

PleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGodPleaseGod

Talk about great reality television!

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6 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

 

A mutual of mine did for pretty much exactly that this morning so I'd say don't risk it, but on the other hand getting banned off twitter for calling Trump rude names is an honoured club (of which I am a proud member I made a new account ummmmmmmmmm)

Hmm, probably should have asked beforehand then. Follow up: is calling Don Jr. a shitty grifter or asking Eric how it feels to be the dumbest member of his family also a bannable offense?

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