When did Kevan figure out that Jaime was the father of Cersei's kids?

[James Steller]

Canon Claude recently created a topic asking why Kevan was so quick to suspect Tyrion, but I don't think that's as interesting of a question as another one which they managed to avoid asking. 

CC brought up the fact that Kevan not only knows about the incestuous relationship between Jaime and Cersei, but also the fact that he confirmed it to their faces in AFFC. What I'm wondering is when exactly Kevan would have figured that out.

We know that Joanna Lannister caught Cersei and Jaime in a moment of some form of sexual activity and threatened to tell their father if they ever did that again, so we can presumably rule out the idea that Joanna told Kevan but not Tywin. We have no memory of him catching the twins either, or else one or both of them would have brought it up in their recollection. But that still doesn't give us an idea of:

1) when and how Kevan found out about the incestuous relationship 

2) why he didn't tell Tywin about it as he surely would have, given all we know about Kevan

In hindsight, Cersei and Jaime really underestimated just how lucky they were that Kevan neither told anyone about that, nor did he try to blackmail them. They literally pushed a child off a tower with the intention of killing him when he caught them at it; Kevan straight up told them both that he knew about their secret and just left it at that. 

[CamiloRP]

I think it's implied he figures it out after Tywin's death, he sees how Cersei acts, how she asks Jaime to be her hand and all and he's all but convinced. He's convinced later when the Lancel thing comes out, but at this point everyone knows that, there's been so much talk about it that even Cersei's subconscious mind makes her talk about it semi-openly (telling Tommen how good his father has at jousting)

[Alyn Oakenfist]

When the plot required it to happen

[Lord Lannister]

Kevan wasn't stupid, even if he lived his life in Tywin's shadow. Two and two were there to be seen to add up to four. I don't think he dared voice it aloud until after Tywin was dead and Cersei was being particularly vile and stupid. I don't think he *knew* until after Jaime all but confirmed it.

[Canon Claude]

Personally, I figure he only got it in his head when Stannis brought widespread attention to it, and he slowly came round to the idea as he ruminated on the evidence in front of him. It's amazing what people won't notice until they actually focus on it, even when it's right in front of their faces.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

Maybe an open secret.

I think it has to do with the Targaryen blood in the Lannister line. Tywin is very sensitive about that. “A coat of gold or a coat of red.”

Thoughts on Tywin “Shits gold”. Does he sit down to make water like a lady?

[James Steller]

30 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Kevan wasn't stupid, even if he lived his life in Tywin's shadow. Two and two were there to be seen to add up to four. I don't think he dared voice it aloud until after Tywin was dead and Cersei was being particularly vile and stupid. I don't think he *knew* until after Jaime all but confirmed it.

Personally, I find it really hard to believe that he put it together during Tywin's lifetime and just sat on it without ever confiding in his brother. He lived to serve Tywin and the Lannister family. If anyone else caught on, the Lannisters would be in BIG trouble, and Kevan would probably think it was his duty to let Tywin know so Tywin could deal with it quietly before it got further out of hand, maybe going to Cersei and insisting that she have a black-haired baby with Robert to throw everyone off the scent.

[Lord Varys]

Kevan didn't figure that it. It was told to him and the world in letters signed by Stannis.

He had about a year so to ponder that accusation and think whether he considered it true or not. It makes no sense to assume Kevan figured that out since there is no indication that he even thought about the matter before Stannis was muddying the waters with his accusations.

[Bronn Urgandy]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Kevan didn't figure that it. It was told to him and the world in letters signed by Stannis.

He had about a year so to ponder that accusation and think whether he considered it true or not. It makes no sense to assume Kevan figured that out since there is no indication that he even thought about the matter before Stannis was muddying the waters with his accusations.

Yeah I go with that, it’s almost like Kevan starts actually thinking once Tywin dies anyway, but people like him aren’t stupid. The letters came out and he went, “oh.... fuck!” Did he voice it to Tywin? No, he’s not insane

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Bronn Urgandy said:

Yeah I go with that, it’s almost like Kevan starts actually thinking once Tywin dies anyway, but people like him aren’t stupid. The letters came out and he went, “oh.... fuck!” Did he voice it to Tywin? No, he’s not insane

They may have talked about the stuff. We don't know. I don't think they talked about whether it's true or not - but they might have, e don't know - but it makes no sense that the brothers didn't discuss the letters as such and what that meant for their campaign and Joff's claim.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

They may have talked about the stuff. We don't know. I don't think they talked about whether it's true or not - but they might have, e don't know - but it makes no sense that the brothers didn't discuss the letters as such and what that meant for their campaign and Joff's claim.

Tywin was in complete denial about what a monster he was, so I don't doubt for a second that he refused to even discuss the claims of those letters. He would have just dismissed them as Stannis spreading falsities and dug his head into the sand. The abomination did manage to do that part of Tywin's character well, and that's one of the only good things I can say for it.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Tywin was in complete denial about what a monster he was, so I don't doubt for a second that he refused to even discuss the claims of those letters. He would have just dismissed them as Stannis spreading falsities and dug his head into the sand. The abomination did manage to do that part of Tywin's character well, and that's one of the only good things I can say for it.

Tywin is troubled by Joff's behavior in the books, and he himself married a cousin. I'm not saying he knew or believed in the twincest, but I'm not sure we are supposed to believe that guy was abhorred by his children beating the Targaryens at their own game, so to speak.

He is very determined to marry Cersei and Jaime off ... but that's a political thing. He has to undermine Stannis' story and having Cersei and Jaime (re-)marry and produce children with their spouses would help with that. Ideally Westeros would give Stannis' silly stories as much credence in ten or twenty years (or whenever Tywin expected/hoped to die a natural death) as they gave about the claims that King Aenys was a bastard fathered by some favorite of Queen Rhaenys by the time of the Conqueror's death.

But Tywin's actions there don't tell us anything about what he knew or believed about the behavior of his children.

Just as, you know, his condemnations of whores and stuff also doesn't tell us anything about whether he fucks the whore-mistress of his ugly dwarf son in the night before the latter's execution.

Tywin isn't a character we are to take at face value. At all. Not what people believe about him, and definitely not what he himself tries to convince people of.

Tywin is basically a character whose true character is hidden beneath his fake public persona. And we still don't know the depths of that character.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

4 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

When the plot required it to happen

Gasp!....Oh My!

I feel as if I’m being bated.

[FictionIsntReal]

4 hours ago, Eliscat said:

the Targaryen blood in the Lannister line

What?

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

He is very determined to marry Cersei and Jaime off ... but that's a political thing.

The queen having legitimate children was "a political thing" in the first place. Jaime was supposed to be Tywin's heir fathering the next Lord of Casterly Rock while Cersei married Rhaegar. Most of what the twins did was to screw up Tywin's plans. As Tyrion said, if Cersei had even one legitimate child that would have allayed suspicion, but then she would not have been Cersei.

Quote

Just as, you know, his condemnations of whores and stuff also doesn't tell us anything about whether he fucks the whore-mistress of his ugly dwarf son in the night before the latter's execution.

Tywin thinks that the public nature of Tyrion's vices brings disrespect to their House, just as had been the case with Tytos. It's actually in keeping with his talk about how you feed a dog under the table but don't give it a seat, with the lesser people having a place but out of sight. It's not like Stannis being opposed to prostitution being tolerated by the authorities.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

What?

Joanna was like75% Targaryen. And I always got the impression Tywin was a Targaryen bastard. Lannister line going all the way back to the field of fire. Like a debt. A second son always letting his wife have a joy ride with a Targaryen or something. 

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The queen having legitimate children was "a political thing" in the first place. Jaime was supposed to be Tywin's heir fathering the next Lord of Casterly Rock while Cersei married Rhaegar. Most of what the twins did was to screw up Tywin's plans. As Tyrion said, if Cersei had even one legitimate child that would have allayed suspicion, but then she would not have been Cersei.

Not sure what that has to do with the fact that Tywin has a more pressing political reason to marry off his son and daughter after Stannis spread the twincest story. There are more reasons for this than dynastic ambitions, it is about proving that Stannis' allegations are false.

This has no bearing on the possibility that Tywin is looking favorably on the fact that his blood - and only his blood! - now sits on the Iron Throne, having effectively supplanted the Targaryen-Baratheons. He knows about the allegations and we have no idea whether he believes them or not. We also don't know whether he suspected something before or not.

But Cersei cuckolding Bobby B. didn't really fuck up Tywin's dynastic plans. She produced offspring, and they dealt with Robert and Renly and Stannis. It is naive to assume that (especially) Renly wouldn't have moved against Cersei and the children, anyway, if Robert had died early. And whether the looks alone triggered Stannis' belief of the twincest is unclear. The looks of the children are one piece of the puzzle, but the closeness of the twins is another. Things would have gone more or less the same if Joff or Tommen had been Robert's but Jaime-Cersei had still had their clandestine affair, because a revelation would have still threatened their lives as well as the lives/claims/legitimacy of the children, depending what Robert would be willing to believe of his children if he had chosen to believe that Cersei and Jaime were cheating on him.

7 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Tywin thinks that the public nature of Tyrion's vices brings disrespect to their House, just as had been the case with Tytos. It's actually in keeping with his talk about how you feed a dog under the table but don't give it a seat, with the lesser people having a place but out of sight. It's not like Stannis being opposed to prostitution being tolerated by the authorities.

That is just one aspect of things. It is one thing to use a double standard on prostitution and stuff ... and quite another to fuck the whore-lover of your ugly dwarf son who quite recently humiliated your own house publicly by testifying against said dwarf son. The fact that Tywin apparently gave Shae the chain of the Hand to wear during their sexual game in that night indicates that Tywin actually has more in common with his father than he cares to admit.

He looks like a closeted submissive, if you ask me. We know he was allegedly ruled by Joanna, but he could not admit to that publicly, unlike his father, who was - to his own detriment, of course - true to himself in that regard. There is no other good explanation as to why Tywin would (1) have sex with Shae in that night, and (2) why the kind of sex they had apparently involved Shae in a position of power (i.e. in dominant role) which is implied by the chain of the Hand.

There might even be more hidden weirdness to all that, with Tywin sort of getting payback at Aerys for whatever he once did/may have done with Joanna: if Tywin - correctly or incorrectly - views Tyrion as Aerys' clandestine bastard, then finally destroying Tyrion would be Tywin's final triumph of over Aerys, just as Tywin claiming Tyrion's woman (with Shae) would be payback for Aerys claiming Joanna back in the day.

After all, you don't have to consider who Tywin is sleeping with - and in what manner, possibly - but also when this happens - in the night before Tyrion's execution. Any reasonably normal/sane person would have other things on his mind than fucking Shae if they were in Tywin's shoes. But not Tywin, for some reason. The answer for that mystery is most likely going to add another layer of weird to Tywin's true persona.

[James Steller]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure what that has to do with the fact that Tywin has a more pressing political reason to marry off his son and daughter after Stannis spread the twincest story. There are more reasons for this than dynastic ambitions, it is about proving that Stannis' allegations are false.

This has no bearing on the possibility that Tywin is looking favorably on the fact that his blood - and only his blood! - now sits on the Iron Throne, having effectively supplanted the Targaryen-Baratheons. He knows about the allegations and we have no idea whether he believes them or not. We also don't know whether he suspected something before or not.

But Cersei cuckolding Bobby B. didn't really fuck up Tywin's dynastic plans. She produced offspring, and they dealt with Robert and Renly and Stannis. It is naive to assume that (especially) Renly wouldn't have moved against Cersei and the children, anyway, if Robert had died early. And whether the looks alone triggered Stannis' belief of the twincest is unclear. The looks of the children are one piece of the puzzle, but the closeness of the twins is another. Things would have gone more or less the same if Joff or Tommen had been Robert's but Jaime-Cersei had still had their clandestine affair, because a revelation would have still threatened their lives as well as the lives/claims/legitimacy of the children, depending what Robert would be willing to believe of his children if he had chosen to believe that Cersei and Jaime were cheating on him.

That is just one aspect of things. It is one thing to use a double standard on prostitution and stuff ... and quite another to fuck the whore-lover of your ugly dwarf son who quite recently humiliated your own house publicly by testifying against said dwarf son. The fact that Tywin apparently gave Shae the chain of the Hand to wear during their sexual game in that night indicates that Tywin actually has more in common with his father than he cares to admit.

He looks like a closeted submissive, if you ask me. We know he was allegedly ruled by Joanna, but he could not admit to that publicly, unlike his father, who was - to his own detriment, of course - true to himself in that regard. There is no other good explanation as to why Tywin would (1) have sex with Shae in that night, and (2) why the kind of sex they had apparently involved Shae in a position of power (i.e. in dominant role) which is implied by the chain of the Hand.

There might even be more hidden weirdness to all that, with Tywin sort of getting payback at Aerys for whatever he once did/may have done with Joanna: if Tywin - correctly or incorrectly - views Tyrion as Aerys' clandestine bastard, then finally destroying Tyrion would be Tywin's final triumph of over Aerys, just as Tywin claiming Tyrion's woman (with Shae) would be payback for Aerys claiming Joanna back in the day.

After all, you don't have to consider who Tywin is sleeping with - and in what manner, possibly - but also when this happens - in the night before Tyrion's execution. Any reasonably normal/sane person would have other things on his mind than fucking Shae if they were in Tywin's shoes. But not Tywin, for some reason. The answer for that mystery is most likely going to add another layer of weird to Tywin's true persona.

It doesn’t make as much sense that Tyrion is Aerys’ bastard compared to the evidence for Aerys being the twins’ father. And it isn’t just their predilection for incest. We know there were rumours that Aerys had a history with Joanna and even exercised indecent liberties on the wedding night (and the above idea about Tywin being a closeted submissive actually strengthens that theory of Aerys cuckolding him and then Aerys’ wife stepping in and sending Joanna away). Sure, Pycelle denies it, but when have we ever trusted Pycelle to tell the truth? 
Joanna wasn’t in King’s Landing when she was pregnant with Tyrion. Why else would GRRM bring Genna Lannister - a non character by that point - out of the wings to tell Jaime (at the height of his identity crisis) that Tyrion is Tywin’s son, not him? And I don’t care how she meant it in context, the author put that in there for a reason. Especially when meanwhile in that same book, Cersei basically becomes the Mad Queen.

[Foot_Of_The_King]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin is basically a character whose true character is hidden beneath his fake public persona. And we still don't know the depths of that character.

It’s crazy how one scene made his character so much more complex. Shae being in his bed completely changed the way I thought about Tywin. 
 

[Lord Varys]

13 hours ago, James Steller said:

It doesn’t make as much sense that Tyrion is Aerys’ bastard compared to the evidence for Aerys being the twins’ father. And it isn’t just their predilection for incest. We know there were rumours that Aerys had a history with Joanna and even exercised indecent liberties on the wedding night (and the above idea about Tywin being a closeted submissive actually strengthens that theory of Aerys cuckolding him and then Aerys’ wife stepping in and sending Joanna away). Sure, Pycelle denies it, but when have we ever trusted Pycelle to tell the truth? 
Joanna wasn’t in King’s Landing when she was pregnant with Tyrion. Why else would GRRM bring Genna Lannister - a non character by that point - out of the wings to tell Jaime (at the height of his identity crisis) that Tyrion is Tywin’s son, not him? And I don’t care how she meant it in context, the author put that in there for a reason. Especially when meanwhile in that same book, Cersei basically becomes the Mad Queen.

There aren't any explicit hints in the text that Aerys can be the father of the twins. Joanna was at CR and got pregnant with the twins at a time when there is no reason she and Aerys met. The fact that they may have an affair before (and, perhaps, after) the twins were conceived has no bearing on the parentage of the twins.

For Tyrion there is not only the possibility that Aerys might be the father ... but the important thing for my point here is that there is explicit doubt that Tywin is the true father mentioned in the books. First by Tyrion back in AGoT when he discusses bastardy and parentage with Jon Snow, and then later by Tywin himself when gives Tyrion his dressing down in ASoS.

My point would be that Tywin's treatment of Tyrion in ASoS only makes sense in light of the assumption that Tywin himself was either not sure who Tyrion's true father was or was secretly convinced that Aerys or somebody else was the dwarf's father. As Joanna's son he was a Lannister by blood and a member of his family - Tywin's bastard cousin, if you will - but not his son and thus never heir to Casterly Rock.

Tyrion did prove his worth and talent during the War of the Five Kings and Tywin isn't so bigoted or stupid to not have realized that. There has to be another explanation/motivation as to why he was so determined to prevent that Tyrion would succeed him as Lord of Casterly Rock.

This doesn't mean Tywin has to be right in his assumption that Tyrion isn't his son ... but I'm pretty convinced that he believed that to be true and we are eventually going to learn that this was the case.

11 hours ago, Foot_Of_The_King said:

It’s crazy how one scene made his character so much more complex. Shae being in his bed completely changed the way I thought about Tywin.

Yes, a lot of people didn't really get that. But this trend continued with the revelation of 'Tywin's secret smile' in AFfC as well as Pycelle's revelation in TWoIaF that Joanna made young Tywin laugh ... or the fact that young Tywin was willing to pay Targaryen debts - made by Jaehaerys II - with Lannister gold while completely refusing to even consider doing this for Joff/Tommen in old age.

The man Cersei, Jaime, and Tyrion know isn't 'the complete Tywin', especially since they were, for the most part, also stuck with the public persona he so carefully created. But one imagines that even Kevan wouldn't really understand why the hell Tywin slept with Shae in that night. That would be a very private, very deep part of his character.

[BlackLightning]

Great discussion @Lord Varys, @FictionIsntReal, @Foot_Of_The_King and @James Steller

I think that if there is anyone who is aware or understanding of the real Tywin far beneath the public persona would be someone he knew from childhood. That includes Kevan and Gemma yes but it includes the servants of Casterly Rock, other close relatives (maybe from the Lannisport branch) and any of the more respected, elderly lords bannermen of the West that grew up alongside Tywin.