When did Kevan figure out that Jaime was the father of Cersei's kids?

[FictionIsntReal]

17 hours ago, Eliscat said:

Joanna was like75% Targaryen

Her parents were Jason Lannister & Marla Prester. Jason was the son of Gerold Lannister (son of Damon Lannister & Cerissa Brax) & Rohanne Webber. We don't know who Marla's parents were, but I don't think any Targaryens married any Presters.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This has no bearing on the possibility that Tywin is looking favorably on the fact that his blood - and only his blood! - now sits on the Iron Throne, having effectively supplanted the Targaryen-Baratheons.

He wasn't seeking to have "only his blood" on the throne when he betrothed Cersei to Rhaegar and sought a Tully match for Jaime, nor when he betrothed Cersei to Robert instead. There was supposed to be a marriage alliance in which each family was invested in the offspring of the couple. As it is, the remaining Baratheons opposed Joffrey & the Brotherhood who still claim to be Robert's men oppose him as well.

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She produced offspring, and they dealt with Robert and Renly and Stannis

Robert managed to get himself gored shortly before Ned could tell him about the twincest, and Ned decided to spare his friend while he was dying. They didn't deal with Renly, Stannis did with magic. And Tywin barely managed to arrive in time to save KL from Stannis. Tywin manages to pull their bacon out of the fire, but he doesn't think they handled anything well (which was why he sent Tyrion to take over in the first place).

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 It is naive to assume that (especially) Renly wouldn't have moved against Cersei and the children, anyway, if Robert had died early

If her children had been legitimate, wouldn't Stannis acknowledge them? In that hypothetical, Jon Arryn might also be alive to support their claim.

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Things would have gone more or less the same if Joff or Tommen had been Robert's

In this hypothetical, do they have the appearance that every Baratheon is supposed to have per the book Jon & Ned read?

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why the kind of sex they had apparently involved Shae in a position of power (i.e. in dominant role) which is implied by the chain of the Hand

Alternate explanation: Tywin simply took it off and Shae put it on while he was gone.

[Back in Black-Snow]

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRBA5Gx2sW-pgHLt0zg0Mp7caaADTZY8qNGU398EeA95mBus_8&s

The REAL Tywin Lannister.

[Lord Varys]

On 11/7/2020 at 8:31 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

He wasn't seeking to have "only his blood" on the throne when he betrothed Cersei to Rhaegar and sought a Tully match for Jaime, nor when he betrothed Cersei to Robert instead. There was supposed to be a marriage alliance in which each family was invested in the offspring of the couple. As it is, the remaining Baratheons opposed Joffrey & the Brotherhood who still claim to be Robert's men oppose him as well.

I didn't say Tywin planned the twincest thing, I said I'd not be surprised if secretly approved of the outcome if he believed it was true. Tywin clearly thinks his own blood is worth more, is more royal than Robert's and the Baratheon bloodline. He thinks he is worth as much as the Targaryen bloodline ... which was the reason why he wanted Cersei to marry Rhaegar.

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Robert managed to get himself gored shortly before Ned could tell him about the twincest, and Ned decided to spare his friend while he was dying. They didn't deal with Renly, Stannis did with magic. And Tywin barely managed to arrive in time to save KL from Stannis. Tywin manages to pull their bacon out of the fire, but he doesn't think they handled anything well (which was why he sent Tyrion to take over in the first place).

Bottom line is, Tywin won the war that took place during his lifetime. He and his allies ensured that Joff/Tommen remained on the throne.

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If her children had been legitimate, wouldn't Stannis acknowledge them? In that hypothetical, Jon Arryn might also be alive to support their claim.

Again, the parentage as such is just one side of the coin. The other is the affair of Jaime and Cersei. If that came out regardless who was the father of the children, this whole thing would have cast doubt on the parentage of the children. It wouldn't even matter how the children looked. If Cersei fucked Jaime, she could have had other lovers as well, even lovers with black Baratheon hair.

It would have fallen to Robert's whim whether to keep the children as his ... or whether to declare them to bastards fathered by Jaime or any other lover Cersei may have had.

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Alternate explanation: Tywin simply took it off and Shae put it on while he was gone.

That isn't an explanation. Shae slept when Tyrion found her, she was not looking forward to another round of weird sex with Tywin. It makes no sense to assume Shae would wake up and take the chain without permission, just as it would be a stretch to assume that Tywin himself would not take it up again when went to the privy.

Instead, the entire thing implies that Shae was given permission - or rather: told by Tywin - to wear that chain as part of the game they played earlier. And that implies she was supposed to play a dominant role there since the chain of the Hand is not only a symbol of power but in fact the very symbol of Tywin's power at court.

[John Suburbs]

On 11/6/2020 at 1:14 PM, James Steller said:

Canon Claude recently created a topic asking why Kevan was so quick to suspect Tyrion, but I don't think that's as interesting of a question as another one which they managed to avoid asking. 

CC brought up the fact that Kevan not only knows about the incestuous relationship between Jaime and Cersei, but also the fact that he confirmed it to their faces in AFFC. What I'm wondering is when exactly Kevan would have figured that out.

We know that Joanna Lannister caught Cersei and Jaime in a moment of some form of sexual activity and threatened to tell their father if they ever did that again, so we can presumably rule out the idea that Joanna told Kevan but not Tywin. We have no memory of him catching the twins either, or else one or both of them would have brought it up in their recollection. But that still doesn't give us an idea of:

1) when and how Kevan found out about the incestuous relationship 

2) why he didn't tell Tywin about it as he surely would have, given all we know about Kevan

In hindsight, Cersei and Jaime really underestimated just how lucky they were that Kevan neither told anyone about that, nor did he try to blackmail them. They literally pushed a child off a tower with the intention of killing him when he caught them at it; Kevan straight up told them both that he knew about their secret and just left it at that. 

I can easily see Tywin knowing all along that Jaime was the real father but not caring one way or the other. Family members are merely tools on which to build and expand your empire, so as long as no one can prove any of this then it's all good as far as Tywin is concerned. All that's needed is to put down these "vile calamnies", and the best way to do that is to destroy the man who is spreading them.

Beyond that, I can also see Lancel confiding in his father that he and Cersei were at it like rabbits, and given the look of the three children and his knowledge of Cersei's personality, he put two and two together.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 11/8/2020 at 1:13 PM, Lord Varys said:

Tywin clearly thinks his own blood is worth more, is more royal than Robert's and the Baratheon bloodline

He prioritizes his own kin, but that doesn't mean he thinks the Lannisters are "more royal".

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He thinks he is worth as much as the Targaryen bloodline ... which was the reason why he wanted Cersei to marry Rhaegar.

Any noble family would want such an advantageous match.

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Tywin won the war that took place during his lifetime

Tywin got lucky after Cersei & Jaime bungled things. Him managing to clean up their mess before everything fell completely apart doesn't imply any approval of his part on their actions.

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It makes no sense to assume Shae would wake up and take the chain without permission

I was guessing that she took the chain and then fell asleep afterward. She wants to receive jewels from Tyrion and imagines a future as his "lady" wearing said jewels next to him. I wouldn't put it past her to try on a necklace left lying nearby, being more concerned with it being made of gold than the symbolism of the hands. And, indeed, in Tyrion XII he finds her wearing those golden hands and talking about how she wants warmer hands on her breasts. Tyrion didn't ask her to put that on as any sort of role-reversal game, she just did it herself.

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just as it would be a stretch to assume that Tywin himself would not take it up again when went to the privy

Why would he need to chain during his trip to the privy? He's not planning on encountering anyone on whom to use his authority as Hand.

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

so as long as no one can prove any of this then it's all good as far as Tywin is concerned

As Tyrion notes, even one child that looked like Robert would allay suspicion, but it was not in Cersei's nature to prioritize that.

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All that's needed is to put down these "vile calamnies", and the best way to do that is to destroy the man who is spreading them.

Tywin actually decided the best way was to marry Cersei off so she could have more children.

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Beyond that, I can also see Lancel confiding in his father that he and Cersei were at it like rabbits, and given the look of the three children and his knowledge of Cersei's personality, he put two and two together.

Lancel is her cousin, and cousin-marriage is not a taboo in Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He prioritizes his own kin, but that doesn't mean he thinks the Lannisters are "more royal".

The entire family think they are. They lusted after royal matches and dragons back in the first century, and they include the Lannister lion and colors in Joffrey's personal sigil, indicating, as Jon pointed out back at Winterfell, that they think the queen's family is as royal and as important as the king's.

3 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I was guessing that she took the chain and then fell asleep afterward. She wants to receive jewels from Tyrion and imagines a future as his "lady" wearing said jewels next to him. I wouldn't put it past her to try on a necklace left lying nearby, being more concerned with it being made of gold than the symbolism of the hands. And, indeed, in Tyrion XII he finds her wearing those golden hands and talking about how she wants warmer hands on her breasts. Tyrion didn't ask her to put that on as any sort of role-reversal game, she just did it herself.

That is a different scenario. Shae was brought to Tyrion's chamber as part of their affair and the games they have been playing for months at that point. They do have a relationship and she knows how far she can go and what kind stuff entices and arouses Tyrion.

This is, to our knowledge, not the case for Shae and Tywin. There is no chance that Shae - or any whore - would play around with Tywin Lannister's jewellery without Tywin Lannister's specific permission. Especially not somebody like Shae who must have been rather freaked out about this whole weird thing that was going on there.

If Shae had confused Tywin and Tyrion, if the implication was that Shae was waiting in bed for Tywin to come in the way she waited for Tyrion back in the day only to be surprised by Tyrion instead ... then you might be able to build a case there. Instead, the implication is that Tywin and Shae already had sex, and that Shae wore the chain while they were playing and he allowed her to keep the chain when they were going to sleep ... or when she went to bed and he stepped out to take his shit. Although chances are that Tywin didn't spend hours/much time on the privy, meaning the most likely scenario is that they had some weird sex before, fell asleep together, and Tywin - being an old guy - woke up again and had to move his bowels. Shae continued to sleep until Tyrion woke her.

3 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Why would he need to chain during his trip to the privy? He's not planning on encountering anyone on whom to use his authority as Hand.

Why would Shae need the chain after they already had sex if it wasn't part of the game they were playing? She would not have kept the thing if neither she nor Tywin thought it was hot that she wore it.

[BlackLightning]

It's not hard to figure out fam.

Kevan knew Jaime, Cersei and Robert well and was likely familiar with Renly and Stannis..

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Tywin actually decided the best way was to marry Cersei off so she could have more children.

Lancel is her cousin, and cousin-marriage is not a taboo in Westeros.

Yeah, a new husband for Cersei as well. But that may become even more problematic if Cersei were to start popping out brown-haired, brown-eyed Tyrells. Putting an end to Stannis and clamping down on all this talk about incest is the key.

Marrying your cousin is not taboo, but shagging your cousin -- who is young enough to be your son -- in secret before your royal husband's corpse is even cold, that tends to be frowned upon.

[FictionIsntReal]

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Shae was brought to Tyrion's chamber as part of their affair and the games they have been playing for months at that point.

I don't think we get an indication that she's been wearing that chain specifically.

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There is no chance that Shae - or any whore - would play around with Tywin Lannister's jewellery without Tywin Lannister's specific permission

Shae was disinclined to listen when Tyrion warned her about his father.

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Instead, the implication is that Tywin and Shae already had sex, and that Shae wore the chain while they were playing

We've got two instances of Tyrion finding Shae in bed wearing nothing but that chain. I think the simplest explanation is what Shae wanted to wear it in both cases rather than in one of those cases it's some role-reversal sex game Tywin wanted to do.

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Why would Shae need the chain

She doesn't "need" it as a Hand might to exert authority, she just likes wearing gold jewelry when she can.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yeah, a new husband for Cersei as well. But that may become even more problematic if Cersei were to start popping out brown-haired, brown-eyed Tyrells.

Tywin gives no indication he thinks of that as any potential problem.

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Putting an end to Stannis and clamping down on all this talk about incest is the key.

Stannis is still alive to spread such talk, as he was before. It's only after Stannis leaves Dragonstone that the Lannister-Tyrell alliance attacks the small garrison there.

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shagging your cousin -- who is young enough to be your son -- in secret before your royal husband's corpse is even cold, that tends to be frowned upon

And indeed she was subjected to the Walk of Shame for that, but it's quite a ways from incest (which would have resulted in her execution).

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Tywin gives no indication he thinks of that as any potential problem.

Stannis is still alive to spread such talk, as he was before. It's only after Stannis leaves Dragonstone that the Lannister-Tyrell alliance attacks the small garrison there.

And indeed she was subjected to the Walk of Shame for that, but it's quite a ways from incest (which would have resulted in her execution).

Yes, I know Tywin doesn't voice that concern, but it would be a problem if it were to happen nonetheless, albeit a minor one.

Right, Stannis slipped through their fingers. If they could have taken him they would have, and then nobody would be talking openly about incest anymore.

I'm nor saying Lancel is equal to Jaime. But to Kevan, the fact that Cersei was shagging Lancel would make him go hmmmmmm. Note that when he first brings it up with Cersei, he says "Aye, and his father too, I think." A suspicion, but not an outright accusation. Then later, when he does accuse Jaime and Jaime does not deny it, not even a peep, well that's pretty much a confirmation. 

[FictionIsntReal]

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Right, Stannis slipped through their fingers. If they could have taken him they would have, and then nobody would be talking openly about incest anymore.

I think opponents of the Lannisters would continue to make that argument.

[frenin]

On 11/8/2020 at 8:13 PM, Lord Varys said:

Tywin clearly thinks his own blood is worth more, is more royal than Robert's and the Baratheon bloodline.

He has never said such statement and given than the Baratheons descend from two royal lines, that's a weird believe to have.

 

On 11/8/2020 at 8:13 PM, Lord Varys said:

He thinks he is worth as much as the Targaryen bloodline ... which was the reason why he wanted Cersei to marry Rhaegar.

Because Rhaegar was going  to sit on the Throne, otherwise he wouldn't have engaged Cersei to Robert.

Every family wants to marry the royals and several of them add other family banners to the royal one, like Rhaenrya.

[Castellan]

I don't see the mystery. As soon as the accusation was out there, Tywin must have realised the truth of it at some level. The desire to pack Cersei off the Dorne may have been the combination of seeing what a dreadful mother and queen she was, and the rumours. Kevan not being their father may have been more clear-sighted than Tywin, anyway, and realised immediately. You can see Kevan's loyalties were with Tywin rather than Tywin's children, like a lot of brothers he probably saw his nephews and nieces as an ungrateful lot, given all that Tywin had done to raise the family's place in the Kingdom. He shared Tywin's antipathy to Tyrion, for example. It's clear he has decided they are incestuous when he sees Jaime and Cersei arguing after Tywin's death that he has come to believe it, and later when he tells Jaime to raise the issue with Cersei when he sees her next in her bedchamber, he makes it crystal clear.

How do we know he 'knows' in the way the Op implies? I sense he has inferred it from their behaviour, once the idea is out there. Any reasonably astute person could come to that conclusion if they consider the situation and their personalities.

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I think opponents of the Lannisters would continue to make that argument.

Well that's just it. If all goes according to plan, there won't be any opponents of Lannisters. Stannis was the only one making the claim, so his removal silences that tongue. Robb is next, so that means he won't start saying it. The Tullys will either submit or be defeated, so no problem there. And the Tyrells and Martells are on team Lannister.

Sure, there will likely be whisperings, but so what? The official line is that Joffrey I Baratheon, son of Robert, first of his name, is the new king.

[FictionIsntReal]

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Well that's just it. If all goes according to plan, there won't be any opponents of Lannisters.

That's counting your chickens before they hatch.

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Stannis was the only one making the claim, so his removal silences that tongue

They haven't really done anything to silence him after the Blackwater.

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The Tullys will either submit or be defeated

The Blackfish seems to think he can hold out for a long time.

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And the Tyrells and Martells are on team Lannister.

Any "loyalty" on the part of the Martells is quite dubious.

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That's counting your chickens before they hatch.

They haven't really done anything to silence him after the Blackwater.

The Blackfish seems to think he can hold out for a long time.

Any "loyalty" on the part of the Martells is quite dubious.

Sorry, but I don't understand what you are arguing. Is Tywin Lannister OK with all the talk about incest because he doesn't think he's going to win the war?

[Angel Eyes]

Is it possible that even if Kevan told Tywin the latter would brush it off?

[FictionIsntReal]

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but I don't understand what you are arguing. Is Tywin Lannister OK with all the talk about incest because he doesn't think he's going to win the war?

No, just that his actual plan for quashing the rumors is to have Cersei remarried rather than to kill Stannis.

[Canon Claude]

17 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Is it possible that even if Kevan told Tywin the latter would brush it off?

I don’t doubt it. I wouldn’t be surprised if it fractured the brothers’ relationship too.

[TheLastWolf]

When he had a dream where Jaime and Cersei were screwing around in Joanna's womb. And it's not incest since Aerys secretly confided in Kevan that one of the two twins is his. And don't argue biology or genetics. This is Westeros with blonde, purple eyed anime incest godlike Targs.