DMC Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: Exit polls regularly suck, but this year where the vast majority of on day voters are Republicans is a self selecting nightmare. I have no idea what you're responding to here but this is a gross exaggeration. Exit polls don't "regularly suck." They can certainly be misleading if you use them to extrapolate results on election night instead of just waiting for results, but they rather consistently align to the gold standards of post-election/panel data for the most part. Whether their altered methodology this time of canvassing early voters and calling mail-in voters is accurate certainly remains to be seen, but I wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet. 5 minutes ago, larrytheimp said: Of course they'll support them - they know that the entire left of the country is going to be pumping money into those races, they can probably clear an easy $20 mil, spend it on ads that their own companies produce, and walk away with a bunch of money. By this logic - if they're just interested in the cash grab - then they should continue supporting Democrats. Not like the GOP is gonna ever have them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Anyone have any decent suggestions on books specifically regarding unions and their history in the US? From what I can tell they are *fairly* weak and I'd love a decent book about how it's gotten to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, DMC said: I have no idea what you're responding to here but this is a gross exaggeration. Exit polls don't "regularly suck." They can certainly be misleading if you use them to extrapolate results on election night instead of just waiting for results, but they rather consistently align to the gold standards of post-election/panel data for the most part. Whether their altered methodology this time of canvassing early voters and calling mail-in voters is accurate certainly remains to be seen, but I wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet. The exit polls from 2016 turned out to be correct as far as voting but hilariously wrong as far as breakouts - things like the 52% of white women voting for Trump was wrong, and 55% of white women now is probably even more wrong. Similarly it is very unlikely that those who considered the economy their biggest concern voted 82% for Trump. I am listening to sirota go on about how the data shows progressive ideas were great and the moderates sucked because of these things, but I don't buy it based on the other results. What I think is a bit amusing is that we might have flipped the script a bit in that republicans might care less coming out for non potus elections and dems might be more of the get in line group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: The exit polls from 2016 turned out to be correct as far as voting but hilariously wrong as far as breakouts - things like the 52% of white women voting for Trump was wrong, and 55% of white women now is probably even more wrong. Similarly it is very unlikely that those who considered the economy their biggest concern voted 82% for Trump. I am listening to sirota go on about how the data shows progressive ideas were great and the moderates sucked because of these things, but I don't buy it based on the other results. Well, first, the 52% number for white women in 2016 was not wrong. But, I agree with the rest here - no one should be drawing from this cycle's data right now at all and that 82% number does not sound like it could possibly be right. 6 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: What I think is a bit amusing is that we might have flipped the script a bit in that republicans might care less coming out for non potus elections and dems might be more of the get in line group. I dunno. It's really hard to tell because of the nature of this election, but I think it could well be simply turnout is going up on both sides. If you were to identify any trend between 2020 and 2018, it's be that voters seem to actually prefer divided government. Which would mean ticket-splitting is making a comeback. Everyone thought, intuitively, that it'd continually die off as polarization increased. But maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Did we all miss the part where Biden's lead ticked up slightly in Arizona? He seems to be at 21188 now and I thought it was 20000 ish earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Did we all miss the part where Biden's lead ticked up slightly in Arizona? He seems to be at 21188 now and I thought it was 20000 ish earlier. I checked about a couple hours ago and saw it tick up a bit but not that much. Wonder who's sputtering out results cuz I don't think the percentage of expected vote has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plessiez Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, DMC said: Well, first, the 52% number for white women in 2016 was not wrong. This report (from 2018) puts the figure at 47%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soylent Brown Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Come on, remaining states. Does last place incur some sort of penalty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Did we all miss the part where Biden's lead ticked up slightly in Arizona? He seems to be at 21188 now and I thought it was 20000 ish earlier. Some votes came in from Apache County at 82%-18% for Biden, which is slightly better than he had been doing in the county. There's about 8000 votes left there and is the main reason Biden is favored at this point to win the state. He'll also likely win some votes from Santa Cruz, but there's less there and the percentage won't be as good. Everything else left is likely to go to Trump, in some cases by extremely high margins. But there's probably not enough left; which is why Maricopa's big vote dumps have been so important. ETA: To be clear, Apache County overall has been 68.7% for Biden, but he got 80% of the previous vote dump from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 I have several issues with the Lincoln Project (like: Where was their conscience when Obama was treated like shit by their party? Plus they are overhyped and frankly full of themselves, and many more), but yes, they are absolutely planning to fight Trumpism in the long run. They are also aware that this has been a long time coming, Tea Party etc. Yet they still believe Reagan and W. Bush were great presidents... Anyway, I think it's up to Liberals to donate to good Dem movements/ organisations rather than TLP. If you're into the viral ads thing, there's the Meidas Brothers. There's votesaveamerica and Abram's movement and many others that deserve more attention than TLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Plessiez said: This report (from 2018) puts the figure at 47%. Yeah I remember that's what Pew got. IIRC ANES, CCES, and GSS all got around 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 28 minutes ago, Raja said: Anyone have any decent suggestions on books specifically regarding unions and their history in the US? From what I can tell they are *fairly* weak and I'd love a decent book about how it's gotten to this point. I'd just suggest A People's History of the United States by Howard Zinn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: The only way for it to ever go away, is to defeat at the polls, heavily. If all the vulnerable GOP senators had dropped and maybe even a few more house seats, and ideally with Biden turning Texas and/or Florida. Then there would've been a fair chance of Trumpism retreating back into its cave. However, that's not what happened. Biden got more votes than any other President in history, and he barely managed to squeeze out a win. The Senate did not flip. And the GOP made gains in the house, with Trump increasing his turnout. So, I am more sceptical regarding the future of fascism in the GOP and the US in general. I think a realignment with formerly Republican strongholds in the college educated suburbs, who are utterly turned off by that (aka the Lincoln Project) joining the Democrats for the long run. The good news is, the suburbs are growing (thus so should the Democrat voting base). Graham and Cruz publicly siding with the outgoing President on his election fraud nonsense are a good indicator for that. They are positioning themselves for 2024, and will try to satisfy the demands of the fascist vote. On a seperate note. Anybody with a twitter account, can you deliver an all caps LOSER tweet to the outgoing potus? This is what I would have preferred. But if you can't defeat Trumpism completely in a pitched battle, you may still be able to do so in an extended war of attrition. The mind boggles at the number of 2024 aspirants on the Republican side: Pence, Pompeo, Haley, Hawley, Sasse, Cruz, Rubio, Cotton, Hogan, Scott, DeSantis. I doubt Cruz's hour will come again: the future belongs to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sci-2 Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: I have several issues with the Lincoln Project (like: Where was their conscience when Obama was treated like shit by their party? Plus they are overhyped and frankly full of themselves, and many more), but yes, they are absolutely planning to fight Trumpism in the long run. They are also aware that this has been a long time coming, Tea Party etc. Yet they still believe Reagan and W. Bush were great presidents... Anyway, I think it's up to Liberals to donate to good Dem movements/ organisations rather than TLP. If you're into the viral ads thing, there's the Meidas Brothers. There's votesaveamerica and Abram's movement and many others that deserve more attention than TLP. I figure TLP is for Republicans and maybe more conservative Dems & Indeps to put their money. If they consistently support Dems or say Libertarian candidates and make Repubs lose they can be useful. I don't think they were as useless as the Left - who went after Biden pretty heavily at times - wants us to think, but also not as great as the TLP likely think of themselves. Of course you could reverse "Left" and "TLP" in that last sentence...though I don't recall the TLP going too heavily after Biden... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Talking Points Memo has a post with a couple of pictures of crowds flipping off Trump's SUV as he comes back from golf. They captured his dumb face looking out at it too. This is wonderful. https://cdn.talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229515086-804x457.jpg https://cdn.talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229515299-804x511.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: Talking Points Memo has a post with a couple of pictures of crowds flipping off Trump's SUV as he comes back from golf. They captured his dumb face looking out at it too. This is wonderful. https://cdn.talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229515086-804x457.jpg https://cdn.talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229515299-804x511.jpg Did they drive him up onto the green to putt too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said: This is what I would have preferred. But if you can't defeat Trumpism completely in a pitched battle, you may still be able to do so in an extended war of attrition. The mind boggles at the number of 2024 aspirants on the Republican side: Pence, Pompeo, Haley, Hawley, Sasse, Cruz, Rubio, Cotton, Hogan, Scott, DeSantis. I doubt Cruz's hour will come again: the future belongs to others. Don't forget possibly Trump. At least one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kairparavel Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 16 minutes ago, Soylent Brown said: Come on, remaining states. Does last place incur some sort of penalty? No relegation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: Don't forget possibly Trump. At least one of them Yeah. The real question is will he run in 2024 blaming the China virus and election fraud for his 2020 defeat. As I read in an article somewhere he has Saddam Hussein like numbers with the base. They'll give him the nomination again. But Don Jr. and Ivanka may make a run for it instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 In terms of promoting healing -- I don't care whether or not people try to approach those they know voted for Trump to try to "change minds." The great majority of people just don't have the sort of patience in their personalities to be able to do that effectively anyway and might do more harm than good. But what I do hope does NOT happen is what I have sometimes seen, even on this board, where people who have changed their minds and come to understand that Trump was a disaster even if they voted for him (in either 2016 or 2020) are still villified and mocked and derided because they didn't "realize this sooner." That is rude, counterproductive, harfmul, and stupid. One thing I learned from being a activist for GLBT rights in the church over the years is that when someone who was formerly on the other side changes their mind you embrace them with open arms and welcome them into your community. Doing otherwise is a way to never become the majority yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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