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UK Politics - Not a Special Relationship


Werthead

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I want a deal that papers over the very very worst effects so people don't die as as result.

I want a deal so we actually keep our past agreement and don't break the good Friday agreement and possible touch peace In NI

I also want things to go disastrously bad.  This way people may finally understand that we are better in the EU than outside.  Long term re-joining is in our interest, or at least very close alignment.  this is not gonna be quick and things need to be really bad first.

I would not be happy with BINO,  BINO means never re-joining.  But I could live with it, It would not be Terrible.

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19 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Soft Brexit, which used to mean something like the Norway option has been dead a long time. It may never have been alive. The only fight left now is between a pretty thin trade deal with issues to resolve on fish and state aid (restrictions on which do form part of normal trade deals) and no deal at all, aside from what was settled in the Withdrawal Agreement. If people think a deal can deliver Brexit in Name Only they are in for a horrible shock.  

Yeah, it isn't "soft Brexit" as people defined back in 2016 (the type that Farage et al said they were happy with up until they realised they might get it, then it wasn't good enough), but more of "getting a reasonable trade deal with the EU". The bar has been very firmly lowered.

The problem is that the hardest of the hard Brexiters think "getting a reasonable trade with the EU" is Brexit in Name Only, and Brexit won't count until we've been physically towed into the middle of the Atlantic and cut off from the outside world by mile-high concrete walls with "FUCK OFF" written on them (albeit with a glory hole pointing Americawards).

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I want a deal that papers over the very very worst effects so people don't die as as result.

I want a deal so we actually keep our past agreement and don't break the good Friday agreement and possible touch peace In NI

I also want things to go disastrously bad.  This way people may finally understand that we are better in the EU than outside.  Long term re-joining is in our interest, or at least very close alignment.  this is not gonna be quick and things need to be really bad first.

I would not be happy with BINO,  BINO means never re-joining.  But I could live with it, It would not be Terrible.

 

Yes, a Brexit that doesn't restart a civil war, doesn't destroy the economy too badly and doesn't actually kill people would be quite nice.

I think hoping that things go disastrously bad won't be helpful though. Brexiters won't accept responsibility for anything like that, they'll blame it on the nasty EU trying to "punish" us for leaving. It won't make anything better and could make things a lot worse. Accepting a general hit on GDP and productivity compared to where we would be if we'd stayed in and hoping it won't be much worse than, say, the 2008 financial crisis is probably realistically optimistic.

Rejoining I suspect is off the cards for a long time. Many ardent Remainers would probably vote against rejoining if it means accepting the Euro and losing all the special treatment we got pre-2016, so I don't see there being much appetite for it for many years to come.

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Farage is just venting and preaching to the choir. None of his points is going to influence anyone to change tgheir views about Brexit or US-UK relations. Though one person he might influence, if he deigns to read the article, is Biden who will be influenced to think that anything that is associated with Farage should be avoided if at all possible.

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6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yeah, it isn't "soft Brexit" as people defined back in 2016 (the type that Farage et al said they were happy with up until they realised they might get it, then it wasn't good enough), but more of "getting a reasonable trade deal with the EU". The bar has been very firmly lowered.

The problem is that the hardest of the hard Brexiters think "getting a reasonable trade with the EU" is Brexit in Name Only, and Brexit won't count until we've been physically towed into the middle of the Atlantic and cut off from the outside world by mile-high concrete walls with "FUCK OFF" written on them (albeit with a glory hole pointing Americawards).

That's right. Helpful I think to keep soft Brexit as the name for Norway/Switzerland type thing. May's deal was 'middle Brexit' and Boris is only offering various iterations of hard Brexit. 

8 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Rejoining I suspect is off the cards for a long time. Many ardent Remainers would probably vote against rejoining if it means accepting the Euro and losing all the special treatment we got pre-2016, so I don't see there being much appetite for it for many years to come.

Agree with this too. I think there is a very low chance of ever re-joining the EU.

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I think as long as the EU is around long enough we will one day re-join.  Its unlikely to be in the next 30 years and may not be in my lifetime.  but eventually we will re-join.

 

Personally I'd take the Euro and the loss of rebate excreta, if it meant re-joining.  I would have voted against that while we where still members but I think its a price worth paying.  I also agree a lot of people really won't be willing to get rid of the pound to re-join, but maybe one day.

 

I live in hope and acknowledge its more of a wild dream than any chance of reality, but I hope we will get over our Brexit ways and really push for re-joining in about 15-20 years  I know that won't happen, but I have a dream.

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45 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I think as long as the EU is around long enough we will one day re-join.  Its unlikely to be in the next 30 years and may not be in my lifetime.  but eventually we will re-join.

 

Personally I'd take the Euro and the loss of rebate excreta, if it meant re-joining.  I would have voted against that while we where still members but I think its a price worth paying.  I also agree a lot of people really won't be willing to get rid of the pound to re-join, but maybe one day.

 

I live in hope and acknowledge its more of a wild dream than any chance of reality, but I hope we will get over our Brexit ways and really push for re-joining in about 15-20 years  I know that won't happen, but I have a dream.

I would caution against anyone taking on the Euro unless there were significant reforms in Euro monetary policy to prevent what happened to Greece from being repeated. Most of what happened to Greece was of its own making, but its ability to respond / the market responding was hamstrung by not having currency sovereignty.

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7 hours ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I want a deal that papers over the very very worst effects so people don't die as as result.

I want a deal so we actually keep our past agreement and don't break the good Friday agreement and possible touch peace In NI

I also want things to go disastrously bad.  This way people may finally understand that we are better in the EU than outside.  Long term re-joining is in our interest, or at least very close alignment.  this is not gonna be quick and things need to be really bad first.

I would not be happy with BINO,  BINO means never re-joining.  But I could live with it, It would not be Terrible.

This is exactly the sort of post that makes people hate remainers so much. 

Long term I would be happy to re-join some sort of EU, but that form of EU, a loose trading confederation will never come about again, instead it will become something far worse than it is now, and that is one reason I'm more than happy to be out.

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1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

This is exactly the sort of post that makes Brexiteers hate remainers so much. 

Long term I would be happy to re-join some sort of EU, but that form of EU, a loose trading confederation will never come about again, instead it will become something far worse than it is now, and that is one reason I'm more than happy to be out.

Fixed that. Saying ‘people’ implies Remainers are a fringe minority rather than 48% of those who voted four years ago. And I rather think we’d have a different result now, after four years of incompetence, lies and broken promises.

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1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

2020 may have turned; Trump lost, Vaccine found, Scotland’s football team qualified for a major tournament for the first time in 22 years, and Cummings is fucking off.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54925322

Dont get carried away yet, its friday the 13th in 2020.

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1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

2020 may have turned; Trump lost, Vaccine found, Scotland’s football team qualified for a major tournament for the first time in 22 years, and Cummings is fucking off.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54925322

I'm not 100% certain the last one is all good news. He wants gone before new year, possibly because he knows shit is going to hit the fan, and he probably knows that by not being an actual govt official, and not being elected he has Teflon on him so no shit will stick on him as long as he goes before it starts flying.

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

This is exactly the sort of post that makes people hate remainers so much. 

 

I don't even know what you mean by this. A rejoiner is saying they are conflicted. They want Brexit to go horribly wrong, so the UK can rejoin the EU sooner, because they believe that is ultimately better for Britain. But because they care about what happens to ordinary people, they want a deal that will make things not go horribly wrong, even though that means rejoining becomes a distant aspiration. How does expressing concern for others even at the cost of your own aspirations turn into something worthy of hatred? I think Brexiteers who demand Brexit no matter the cost are the people of dubious honour. There is some strange kind of honour in being willing to die for Brexit, but there is no honour in expecting others to unwillingly suffer for it.

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2 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I'm not 100% certain the last one is all good news. He wants gone before new year, possibly because he knows shit is going to hit the fan, and he probably knows that by not being an actual govt official, and not being elected he has Teflon on him so no shit will stick on him as long as he goes before it starts flying.

I don't even know what you mean by this. A rejoiner is saying they are conflicted. They want Brexit to go horribly wrong, so the UK can rejoin the EU sooner, because they believe that is ultimately better for Britain. But because they care about what happens to ordinary people, they want a deal that will make things not go horribly wrong, even though that means rejoining becomes a distant aspiration. How does expressing concern for others even at the cost of your own aspirations turn into something worthy of hatred? I think Brexiteers who demand Brexit no matter the cost are the people of dubious honour. There is some strange kind of honour in being willing to die for Brexit, but there is no honour in expecting others to unwillingly suffer for it.

What HoI means is that wishing disaster on your country to promote your political goals and serve your countrymen/women right for voting the wrong way is not a good look. And he's right.  

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15 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

What HoI means is that wishing disaster on your country to promote your political goals and serve your countrymen/women right for voting the wrong way is not a good look. And he's right.  

Sure. But you only get that impression if you read 3 sentences out of the whole post and pretend the rest of it never existed. If anyone got the impression Pebbles actually wants people to suffer and possibly die to get a quicker rejoin then they have read that post entirely wrongly; possibly deliberately so. And maybe someone might deliberately misread it because they have a horrible feeling that the thing they want is actually going to cause a lot of harm, when they have spent years saying everything is going to be just fine, and so they are deflecting just a little bit.

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Exactly, wishing disaster on your own country, just so you can be proven right is not going to make you very popular. It makes even less sense when your ultimate goal is to get your country to join some opaque supranational organisation that ultimately reduces your your own national sovereignty. I mean how much national self hatred can you get into one paragraph?

Add in just a not insignificant amount of hyperbole about people dying and you have basically your standard caricature of a hand wringing Remainer.  It wouldn't be just passionate Brexiteers who would be put off by such a thing.

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6 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Sure. But you only get that impression if you read 3 sentences out of the whole post and pretend the rest of it never existed. If anyone got the impression Pebbles actually wants people to suffer and possibly die to get a quicker rejoin then they have read that post entirely wrongly; possibly deliberately so. And maybe someone might deliberately misread it because they have a horrible feeling that the thing they want is actually going to cause a lot of harm, when they have spent years saying everything is going to be just fine, and so they are deflecting just a little bit.

This is something that does come across on Twitter and in other conversations, namely remainers who do want the country to suffer to force it back into the EU. 

Regarding the post it reads to me like she does want people to suffer to rejoin faster, providing they don't die, or die violently.  So one of us has a comprehension fail but I think it might be you. 

Also, not trying to get at anyone here, I know people are angry about the situation and with good reason. 

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2 minutes ago, Soylent Brown said:

I mean, if you want to hold Twitter as a proper representation of Remainers and Leavers, then while the Remainers no doubt have issues, at least they're not massively racist Trump fans, like a lot of your bunch seem to be.

I voted liberal in 2019 despite voting Tory in every previous election and believing strongly Corbyn would be a disaster to try and stop Brexit. 

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19 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Brexit in name only or BRINO would be something like the Norway option, where you stay in the single market, align closely to EU rules, but are essentially a rule taker, with little to no influence in them. I find it highly unlikely that would ever be the preference of the British public. Even if enthusiasm for the project has dropped after numerous bouts of incompetence, a soft Brexit would come back to bite Boris should he ever allow it to happen (worth noting that Brexit has already happened). There is really very little to no benefit to a soft Brexit and plenty of downsides.

Who is this "British public" that will punish soft Brexit that you speak of? 48.1% voted to Remain, while the remainder includes both "hard" and "soft" Brexiters. In fact, according to the latest polling on the issue, 45% want to remain in the EU, 34% want a deal, and only 17% want "no deal".

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