UK Politics - Not a Special Relationship

[Chaircat Meow]

17 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Are there any Scots here who are still in favour of the union? Having lived in London for the past forty years, I guess I won't get a say in the next referendum. But I do look forward to going home after we gain independence. 

I was born in Scotland and have a half-Scottish parent. If I count I can confirm I remain very much against partitioning our country, yep. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

20 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Are there any Scots here who are still in favour of the union? Having lived in London for the past forty years, I guess I won't get a say in the next referendum. But I do look forward to going home after we gain independence. 

In 2014 my wife and I were in favour of the union. Now, Bojo, Farage and Brexit have mostly convinced me of the error of my ways, and my wife is on the fence.

[Spockydog]

21 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

In 2014 my wife and I were in favour of the union. Now, Bojo, Farage and Brexit have mostly convinced me of the error of my ways, and my wife is on the fence.

Same here. In 2014 I thought it madness to leave. Now we'd be mad to stay. 

I love London, it's my home. But if Sturgeon secures a second referendum I'll no doubt end up back in Scotland, leaving the moronic majority to the self-inflicted misery of eternal Tory rule. 

[Chaircat Meow]

17 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Same here. In 2014 I thought it madness to leave. Now we'd be mad to stay. 

I love London, it's my home. But if Sturgeon secures a second referendum I'll no doubt end up back in Scotland, leaving the moronic majority to the self-inflicted misery of eternal Tory rule. 

The exact opposite is the case.

As you know, I'm in favour of Britain and was very pleased there was a No vote in 2014. However, while I did think at the time that a Yes vote would have been sad and pointless I was not persuaded it would be a disaster. One of the main reasons for thinking it would basically be OK was because both iScotland and rUK would be in the single market and customs union (although only rUK would be a full EU member initially). This would provide a cushion, keeping much of the current trading and regulatory framework in place. I did underestimate the currency issue at the time but more on that later. 

Now on the other hand, if the country is broken up in 2024 or 2026 following a second vote the default position between iScotland and rUK will be a no deal. This will entail trading barriers on the 60% of Scotland’s external trade which is with rUK. In comparison the figure for iScotland’s trade with the EU is something like 10-20%. Therefore, in simple terms, any hit caused by Brexit to living standards and the economy of Scotland would be dwarfed by the hit caused by Scexit, by a factor of 3-6 times.

The only way to avoid this will be to make a comprehensive trade deal with the UK. But this is impossible. Because if iScotland wants to join the EU it will have to have almost exactly the same trading relationship with the rUK as the rest of the EU does, which is either no deal or a very thin deal.* If you want proof of this just look at the situation in Ireland. So there is no way to avoid the hit, even if, in theory, both sides wanted to.** And as it would take between 5-10 years to get back into the EU, iScotland would be without sophisticated trading arrangements with both rUK and the EU for that time.

And that’s before you even start talking about what currency iScotland would use, or how to make up the £10bn budget shortfall (which is the current size of the fiscal transfer).

So you’re wrong. Leaving in 2014 would have been a bad decision but not madness. Leaving in 2024 because of anger over Brexit would be madness, as it would be literally repeating the Brexit mistake on a larger scale (as far as Scotland was concerned anyway) and hoping for a different result!

*Saving some arrangement like the CTA which might be possible.

**Unless an iScotland doesn't join the EU, which is an under-priced possibility in my view. 

[ljkeane]

3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

So you’re wrong. Leaving in 2014 would have been a bad decision but not madness. Leaving in 2024 because of anger over Brexit would be madness, as it would be literally repeating the Brexit mistake on a larger scale (as far as Scotland was concerned anyway) and hoping for a different result!

I agree with this. Rationally speaking Scotland leaving the UK without both countries being in the EU is a worse idea than brexit. Having said that I can understand the emotional appeal of the idea with the succession of terrible decisions coming out of the UK government in recent years and not much prospect of anything other than a Tory government in the near future.

I will say Scotland electing so many SNP MPs isn't helping with the prospects of getting rid of the Tories though.

[Chaircat Meow]

12 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

I agree with this. Rationally speaking Scotland leaving the UK without both countries being in the EU is a worse idea than brexit. Having said that I can understand the emotional appeal of the idea with the succession of terrible decisions coming out of the UK government in recent years and not much prospect of anything other than a Tory government in the near future.

I will say Scotland electing so many SNP MPs isn't helping with the prospects of getting rid of the Tories though.

Yeah, the best thing for the unity of the United Kingdom would be for the Tories to lose the next election and Labour and the Liberals to have a majority (without the SNP). 

This is a very revealing focus group result, produced by a pro-UK organisation. Quite sad really, there are some very confused voters out there. 

Focus Groups Report (these-islands.co.uk)

[Poobah]

As an English person, albeit one who spent a good bit of time in Scotland for my education I would totally understand them leaving the UK at this point, hell I'd leg it north of the border if I could. Echoing @Derfel Cadarn & @Spockydog I want to say how much I loathe my country's disgusting slide into Tory madness.

[Heartofice]

I mean, even I understand why the Scottish Independence movement is riding high right now. If I was Scottish I'd find it very easy to look at Sturgeon against Boris and not even have a second thought about who I'd prefer (even if I think that Sturgeon has her own problems, but is very good at playing politics to make herself look good). Boris makes life very easy for her in those comparisons. 

Having said that, I'd also not be hasty about leaving the union. All the assumptions are that Brexit is a disaster and there should be a mad panic to rush back to the EU ( leaving one union only to be subsumed into another larger less democratic one is a bit of logic I don't really understand), but I would think the best course of action would be to see how Brexit plays out first, and also at the same time what happens after the next general election. I would have thought that if things continue in the same direction, Starmer would be PM, labour could potentially win back some of it's presence in Scotland and the picture will look a lot different. 

All the reason's Chaircat has listed above about why leaving the UK after Brexit seem pretty scary. If the Rep of Ireland is deeply worried about how it will manage with the UK out of the EU, Scotland should be doubly afraid were it to go on it's own. 

Plus Scotland would have to make a commitment to join the Euro if it joins the EU, I'd be very worried about doing that as well.

[Fragile Bird]

I saw that new Covid cases in the UK have dropped by 30%. But you guys are reopening on Dec. 3, aren’t you? 

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

I saw that new Covid cases in the UK have dropped by 30%. But you guys are reopening on Dec. 3, aren’t you? 

Re-opening isn't quite the word. We are moving back to a regional tier system on Weds, with most places being in Tier 2 or 3 (the stricter tiers).

Gyms and most shops will re-open across all the tiers but there are still restrictions on hospitality and who you can meet.

[lessthanluke]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I saw that new Covid cases in the UK have dropped by 30%. But you guys are reopening on Dec. 3, aren’t you? 

Not really. It's pretty much the same thing with just a few more things allowed to be open. 

[john]

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Are there any Scots here who are still in favour of the union?

Yeah, I supported the union in 2014, tend to be much more in favour of the idea of independence now, (turns out four years of a shitty national government is no comparison to ten years of steadily getting shitter national government). Although I’m still mostly against it for the reasons Chaircat gives. It might be more desirable now but it’s also even more unpredictable now, from the referendum onwards.

Still, I don’t live in Scotland either, and some of my family and friends seem to want it so .. democracy I suppose.

[SeanF]

It depends whether political differences between Scotland and England & Wales become insuperable.

Scotland wants left wing governance, England wants right wing governance, Wales is still left but shifting right.

[BigFatCoward]

Other than getting a haircut, tomorrows new rules dont change my life in any way. 

Assuming various vaccines get approved and start rolling out shortly, how do people think that affects public behaviour in general over the next 6 months or so? I cant work out whether it will be 'fuck the rules there's a cure' or 'nearly there, let's see this through to the end'. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

4 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Other than getting a haircut, tomorrows new rules dont change my life in any way. 

Assuming various vaccines get approved and start rolling out shortly, how do people think that affects public behaviour in general over the next 6 months or so? I cant work out whether it will be 'fuck the rules there's a cure' or 'nearly there, let's see this through to the end'. 

A lot of idiots are still in the ‘fuck the rules, there’s no disease’ stage

[DaveSumm]

36 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Other than getting a haircut, tomorrows new rules dont change my life in any way. 

Assuming various vaccines get approved and start rolling out shortly, how do people think that affects public behaviour in general over the next 6 months or so? I cant work out whether it will be 'fuck the rules there's a cure' or 'nearly there, let's see this through to the end'. 

Same, although my hair is driving me nuts so I’m looking forward to that more than I thought I would. I very much fear that the case for restrictions will be far harder to make when there’s a reduced death rate attached to it, and from a personal risk perspective, Jan-Apr could be the worst period for me. I just hope the roll out can keep up with the drop off in vigilance.

[Heartofice]

Being able to go to the gym and get a haircut is a massive boost for me. They even closed the outdoor gym area in the park (not that anyone noticed as someone pulled down the tape and used it anyway). Opening up most retail probably won't make much of a difference to me as I've really fallen into the habit of getting everything online anyway. I'm even risking buying shoes and clothes without trying them on more.

 

[Chaircat Meow]

A scotch egg with a pickle and some salad. Yuck. 

[Spockydog]

*Morgan* Oh, ffs, come on man. Even Heart of Ice admits it's been a disaster.

*Gove* ...

This appalling creature is likely next in line to the throne. 

 

 

[Werthead]

Morgan's not exactly Paxman with the bit between his teeth, Gove should have some kind of line prepared for this other than, "well, it's not over yet," to which the logical response is, "so you're saying it's going to get worse?"

C'mon, his staff should have briefed him before any TV interview that this kind of question will come up and he needs some kind of cogent response, even if it's just spin-waffle.

Quote

I saw that new Covid cases in the UK have dropped by 30%. But you guys are reopening on Dec. 3, aren’t you? 

Not really. What's happening is that 55 million (of 67 million) are remaining in the highest tiers, 2 and 3, which still amount to a lockdown, just with a few more things open.

It's effectively a way for the government to continue the lockdown for another three weeks without it making it look like we're still in a lockdown. Figures are starting to move in the right direction but reopening at the moment would undo that work, so we need some kind of way of keeping things under control. The good work is likely to be undone over Christmas anyway, maybe leading to another lockdown around February-April time, hopefully the last one before immunisation starts taking massive chunks out of the figures.