How did Ned figure out that Jaime is the father?

[Alyn Oakenfist]

So we know that Jaime is Joffrey's, Myrcella's and Tommen's dad, but how did Ned know? His only real pieces of evidence are the kids's looks and the fact that "the seed is strong" in all the Baratheons and all of Robert's bastards. However all this proves is that Robert is not the father. So how did Ned make the logical leap of Jaime being the father. Was it just his hatred for Jaime that made him reach that conclusion or was there something more behind it?

[CamiloRP]

It's generally consider a big leap, to the point that some people consider it evidence for Brandon/Benejn+Lyanna=Jon, but there were other pieces of evidence that Ned had, he knows thinks Bran was pushed of the tower because of the Lannister secret, and he knows the Lannisters sent a catspaw to finish the job a few days later. Bran's accident happened when Robert was hunting, and Jaime didn't go on that hunt.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 hour ago, CamiloRP said:

but there were other pieces of evidence that Ned had, he knows thinks Bran was pushed of the tower because of the Lannister secret, and he knows the Lannisters sent a catspaw to finish the job a few days later. Bran's accident happened when Robert was hunting, and Jaime didn't go on that hunt.

That's contrived with a pinch of convoluted thrown in for good measure. All the evidence do point out to Lannister involvement, yes but it's Cersei's Lannister involvement, as for Jaime being in the castle, that's not saying much given the King's retinue

[CamiloRP]

3 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

That's contrived with a pinch of convoluted thrown in for good measure. All the evidence do point out to Lannister involvement, yes but it's Cersei's Lannister involvement, as for Jaime being in the castle, that's not saying much given the King's retinue

Yeah, it's not a great explanation, but it's the only one there is, Ned might have picked up on something form the twins's behavior, but I doubt it since he didn't even picked up on Renly being gay. 

Ned knows the tower incident was related to the lannisters, he thinks it's related to Jon Arryn's death and the incident happened at a time when no one knew where Jaime or Cersei were, it's not as big a leap as him jumping from infidelity to incest out of the blue, but it's still a bit of a leap

[Canon Claude]

4 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So we know that Jaime is Joffrey's, Myrcella's and Tommen's dad, but how did Ned know? His only real pieces of evidence are the kids's looks and the fact that "the seed is strong" in all the Baratheons and all of Robert's bastards. However all this proves is that Robert is not the father. So how did Ned make the logical leap of Jaime being the father. Was it just his hatred for Jaime that made him reach that conclusion or was there something more behind it?

Presumably, Ned’s train of thought was focused on the fact that Robert’s seed determines the appearance of his children. From there, he’d look at Cersei’s children and he’d see that they have a different father, and since Ned would still be focused on the father’s genes, he’d presumably decide that the kids must look like their biological father. Who’s got blonde hair and green eyes? Who’s close to the queen? Who would be in a position to have sex with Cersei repeatedly without anyone getting suspicious of their closeness and veiled intimacy? I’m not saying it was a completely logical thought process, but how else was GRRM going to reveal it without having Ned overhearing them or stumbling upon them?

[talvikorppi]

39 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Presumably, Ned’s train of thought was focused on the fact that Robert’s seed determines the appearance of his children. From there, he’d look at Cersei’s children and he’d see that they have a different father, and since Ned would still be focused on the father’s genes, he’d presumably decide that the kids must look like their biological father. Who’s got blonde hair and green eyes? Who’s close to the queen? Who would be in a position to have sex with Cersei repeatedly without anyone getting suspicious of their closeness and veiled intimacy? I’m not saying it was a completely logical thought process, but how else was GRRM going to reveal it without having Ned overhearing them or stumbling upon them?

Probably this. I'd also add that Ned has an antipathy towards Jaime (and the Lannisters in general), so he'd be predisposed to believe the worst of Jaime. His informed guess proved right in this instance.

He didn't know until his confrontation with Cersei in the Red Keep godswood in AGOT Ned XII, when Cersei openly confirmed his suspicions and guesses. Jaime is her lover. They threw Bran out of the window for seeing them. Jaime is the father of Cersei's children. (In a parallell scene, Jaime confesses these same things to Cat in the Riverrun dungeons in ACOK Cat VII.)

(Oh Ned... Cersei confessing these truths should've set alarm bells ringing in your head! Did you really think Cersei and the rest of the Lannisters would go quietly?)

[Canon Claude]

1 hour ago, talvikorppi said:

 

(Oh Ned... Cersei confessing these truths should've set alarm bells ringing in your head! Did you really think Cersei and the rest of the Lannisters would go quietly?)

Someone I know once suggested that Ned has undiagnosed PTSD from his war experiences, and seeing the dead Targaryen kids was what triggered it. Imagining Myrcella and Tommen in a similar position would have been too much for him to bear, so he gave Cersei and opportunity to flee.

[talvikorppi]

5 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Someone I know once suggested that Ned has undiagnosed PTSD from his war experiences, and seeing the dead Targaryen kids was what triggered it. Imagining Myrcella and Tommen in a similar position would have been too much for him to bear, so he gave Cersei and opportunity to flee.

I dislike modern medicalised kitchen diagnoses of fictional characters, but it's clear Robert's Rebellion, the battles, have had a lasting effect on many characters. Maybe PTSD, maybe just plain unmedicalized way of looking at the world.

The dead Targ kids, wrapped in Lannister crimson (so as not to show the blood), and Robert's callousness, dismissal, approval, was definitely a turning point for Ned.

Also, Ned had first seen Jaime Lannister, a Kingsguard, with Aerys's blood on his gilded blade, casually sitting on the Iron Throne. It must've seemed so many kinds of sacraledge and wrong to Ned. The Lannisters sitting on the fence, only joining the rebellion after the Trident to be on the winning side, Lannisters sacking KL; Jaime, all seemingly arrogant actually sitting on the Iron Throne, the previous king's blood dripping from his sword. Jaime broke his oath, is a BAD person.

Nevermind Robert, Ned etc. wanting Aerys II and his heirs dead. It's easy for Ned to pin it all, blame Jaime. It gives him and his allies a free pass. Rhaenys, Aegon atrocities can also be pinned on Lannister forces. Robert's (and Jon Arryn's, Ned's) hands are clean.

The end of the rebellion, we get Ned's version, then we get Jaime's version of that moment in the Throne Room. Ned's wordless, silent condemnation sends young Jaime - shocked and confused about the momentuos thing he'd just done - down a bad path. Cements Ned's bad opinion of Jaime.

Later, we learn Jaime is racked with guilt about Rhaegar's children. Realistically, there was no way he could've saved Rhenys or Aegon, but he feels guilt about it (e.g. his weirwood dream).

Jaime also has PTSD after serving in Aerys II's kingsguard, seeing his childhood heroes aren't all that. Don't judge King, no matter what he does, like burning people alive. Don't protect Queen Rhealla from violence and rape when it's done by the King. Jaime went away inside, he's advicing Tommen to go away inside in the present day. A coping mechanism.

Young, idealistic Jaime had plenty of reasons to wish Aerys II dead, even before the wildfire plot and the Sack of KL. Aerys II and his Kingsguard took his young dreams and idealism from him.

Ser Barristan Selmy, now in his 60s, is slowly coming to the same conclusions Jaime did when he was 17 yr old.

[Aebram]

The OP seems to have spotted a significant plot hole. I'll try to help fill it.  :^)

We know that, as teenagers, Jaime and Cersei were once caught in bed together by their mother. After that, Jamie's bedchamber was moved to a different part of the castle, far from Cersei's. When that happened, I'm sure that rumors and gossip flew amongst the servants, and from there would probably spread all over town, and eventually to other places as well.

You know how, when two people are falling In love, sometimes their friends or co-workers notice it before they do themselves? There may have been some of that going on, so that anyone who saw Jamie and Cersei together might get an impression that they seen seemed closer than most siblings.

I don't think there's any textual evidence for either of these, but they are both plausible, just based on human nature.

[Ser Leftwich]

3 hours ago, Aebram said:

SNIP

We know that, as teenagers, Jaime and Cersei were once caught in bed together by their mother. After that, Jamie's bedchamber was moved to a different part of the castle, far from Cersei's. When that happened, I'm sure that rumors and gossip flew amongst the servants, and from there would probably spread all over town, and eventually to other places as well.

SNIP

They were much younger than teenagers. Joanna was still alive, so they were 7, or so. And a servant caught them and told their mother, Joanna didn't catch them.

[The hairy bear]

I think that a point that played a significant part on Ned's deduction is the fact that Cersei (or any Queen) would have close to no opportunities to be alone with any man other than her brother Jaime. Once Ned guessed that Cersei's children were not Robert's, he would immediately would ask himself how that would be possible without the complicity of the queen's maids and servants.

Once you start thinking on who could have the opportunity to have sex with Cersei repeatedly without generating rumors or creating suspicions, you are already on the right track for solving the mystery.

[John Suburbs]

On 11/8/2020 at 4:43 AM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So we know that Jaime is Joffrey's, Myrcella's and Tommen's dad, but how did Ned know? His only real pieces of evidence are the kids's looks and the fact that "the seed is strong" in all the Baratheons and all of Robert's bastards. However all this proves is that Robert is not the father. So how did Ned make the logical leap of Jaime being the father. Was it just his hatred for Jaime that made him reach that conclusion or was there something more behind it?

It's not that much of a leap from "(Joffrey)'s not the least bit like that old drunken king" to Jaime Lannister is his real father. Who else would Cersei lay with who would produce three fair-skinned, light-haired children?

But here is another thought: of the three children, only two of them have the characteristic Lannister slenderness. Tommen is plump, more in keeping with Baratheon stockiness (although this characteristic is certainly not universal as both Stannis and Renly are slim, yet still broad of chest and shoulder, and powerful-looking). So after all this kerfluffle over incest, wouldn't it be ironic if Tommen is actually Robert's true heir?

[Angel Eyes]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It's not that much of a leap from "(Joffrey)'s not the least bit like that old drunken king" to Jaime Lannister is his real father. Who else would Cersei lay with who would produce three fair-skinned, light-haired children?

But here is another thought: of the three children, only two of them have the characteristic Lannister slenderness. Tommen is plump, more in keeping with Baratheon stockiness (although this characteristic is certainly not universal as both Stannis and Renly are slim, yet still broad of chest and shoulder, and powerful-looking). So after all this kerfluffle over incest, wouldn't it be ironic if Tommen is actually Robert's true heir?

Not all Lannisters are slender. Kevan is described as stocky while Tytos is said to be fat.

[The Commentator]

On 11/8/2020 at 9:40 AM, Canon Claude said:

Presumably, Ned’s train of thought was focused on the fact that Robert’s seed determines the appearance of his children. From there, he’d look at Cersei’s children and he’d see that they have a different father, and since Ned would still be focused on the father’s genes, he’d presumably decide that the kids must look like their biological father. Who’s got blonde hair and green eyes? Who’s close to the queen? Who would be in a position to have sex with Cersei repeatedly without anyone getting suspicious of their closeness and veiled intimacy? I’m not saying it was a completely logical thought process, but how else was GRRM going to reveal it without having Ned overhearing them or stumbling upon them?

Ned had to have made a few assumptions.  The kids looked nothing like Robert.  That only says he's not the father.  He crossed a long bridge to assume Jaime fathered them.  But so what if they looked like a Lannister.  They inherited their genes from mom.  So it was a leap to conclude they were fathered by Jaime.  

[Angel Eyes]

On 11/8/2020 at 10:35 AM, talvikorppi said:

Probably this. I'd also add that Ned has an antipathy towards Jaime (and the Lannisters in general), so he'd be predisposed to believe the worst of Jaime. His informed guess proved right in this instance.

He didn't know until his confrontation with Cersei in the Red Keep godswood in AGOT Ned XII, when Cersei openly confirmed his suspicions and guesses. Jaime is her lover. They threw Bran out of the window for seeing them. Jaime is the father of Cersei's children. (In a parallell scene, Jaime confesses these same things to Cat in the Riverrun dungeons in ACOK Cat VII.)

(Oh Ned... Cersei confessing these truths should've set alarm bells ringing in your head! Did you really think Cersei and the rest of the Lannisters would go quietly?)

I guess this is why Cersei confessed this; for years I've been confused by that, considering Cersei's penchant for lying.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

27 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Ned had to have made a few assumptions.  The kids looked nothing like Robert.  That only says he's not the father.  He crossed a long bridge to assume Jaime fathered them.  But so what if they looked like a Lannister.  They inherited their genes from mom.  So it was a leap to conclude they were fathered by Jaime.  

Yeah, the seed is strong stuff only seems to work for the Bobby B's brood, otherwise Ned would have a lot of awkward questions for Cat.

[Canon Claude]

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Yeah, the seed is strong stuff only seems to work for the Bobby B's brood, otherwise Ned would have a lot of awkward questions for Cat.

I know you’re joking but come on. How could Edmure have had sex with Catelyn from a whole other region away? It’s not like Edmure is acting as Catelyn’s personal bodyguard.

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

I think that a point that played a significant part on Ned's deduction is the fact that Cersei (or any Queen) would have close to no opportunities to be alone with any man other than her brother Jaime. Once Ned guessed that Cersei's children were not Robert's, he would immediately would ask himself how that would be possible without the complicity of the queen's maids and servants.

Once you start thinking on who could have the opportunity to have sex with Cersei repeatedly without generating rumors or creating suspicions, you are already on the right track for solving the mystery.

That kind of thinking is far to elaborate in light of the fact that neither we as the readers nor Ned Stark himself have any clue with how many men the queen could have an affair. We do learn, for instance, that Blount and Trant are Cersei's creatures - shouldn't that also allow them to have sufficient access to the queen to fuck her?

There is indeed no internal reason given why Ned would actually conclude the queen would have an incestuous relationship with her own twin brother. That is a horrific sin in light of the fact that incest is seen as an abomination in the eyes of gods and men. You don't have to have a dirty mind to fantasize about Cersei entertaining lovers ... but you do have a dirty mind if the first candidate for a lover for Cersei is her own twin brother.

Even in light of the whole Bran thing it would make much more sense if Ned was merely thinking Bran did overhear something Cersei and Jaime talked about - say, why they poisoned Jon Arryn or that they were planning to murder Robert or Ned - than to conclude that they must have had sex.

The best ad hoc explanation I can come up with is that the looks indicate Jaime is the father considering that the children all look like Jaime. That they also look like their mother Cersei wouldn't really matter all that much in a patriarchal world. The important thing is that they do not look like the father ... and look rather too much like their uncle.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 hour ago, Canon Claude said:

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Yeah, the seed is strong stuff only seems to work for the Bobby B's brood, otherwise Ned would have a lot of awkward questions for Cat.

I know you’re joking but come on. How could Edmure have had sex with Catelyn from a whole other region away? It’s not like Edmure is acting as Catelyn’s personal bodyguard.

I know, I'm just pointing out the falacy of thinking the children must have the phenotype of the father in cases other then Bobby B

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The best ad hoc explanation I can come up with is that the looks indicate Jaime is the father considering that the children all look like Jaime. That they also look like their mother Cersei wouldn't really matter all that much in a patriarchal world. The important thing is that they do not look like the father ... and look rather too much like their uncle.

I don't think Ned would make such a mistake, especially considering his own children. He is smart enough to realize children can just as easily take after the mother. Bobby B is the exception as he seems endowed with double sets of dominant genes

[rotting sea cow]

On 11/8/2020 at 10:43 AM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So we know that Jaime is Joffrey's, Myrcella's and Tommen's dad, but how did Ned know? His only real pieces of evidence are the kids's looks and the fact that "the seed is strong" in all the Baratheons and all of Robert's bastards. However all this proves is that Robert is not the father. So how did Ned make the logical leap of Jaime being the father. Was it just his hatred for Jaime that made him reach that conclusion or was there something more behind it?

Sansa III - AGOT
 

Quote

 

Arya made a face. "Not if Joffrey's his father," she said. "He's a liar and a craven and anyhow he's a stag, not a lion."

Sansa felt tears in her eyes. "He is not! He's not the least bit like that old drunken king," she screamed at her sister, forgetting herself in her grief.

Father looked at her strangely. "Gods," he swore softly, "out of the mouth of babes …" He shouted for Septa Mordane. To the girls he said, "I am looking for a fast trading galley to take you home. These days, the sea is safer than the kingsroad. You will sail as soon as I can find a proper ship, with Septa Mordane and a complement of guards … and yes, with Syrio Forel, if he agrees to enter my service. But say nothing of this. It's better if no one knows of our plans. We'll talk again tomorrow."

 

Eddard XII - AGOT
 

Quote

 

When Pycelle was gone, Ned called for a cup of honeyed wine. That clouded the mind as well, yet not as badly. He needed to be able to think. A thousand times, he asked himself what Jon Arryn might have done, had he lived long enough to act on what he'd learned. Or perhaps he had acted, and died for it.

It was queer how sometimes a child's innocent eyes can see things that grown men are blind to. Someday, when Sansa was grown, he would have to tell her how she had made it all come clear for him. He's not the least bit like that old drunken king, she had declared, angry and unknowing, and the simple truth of it had twisted inside him, cold as death. This was the sword that killed Jon Arryn, Ned thought then, and it will kill Robert as well, a slower death but full as certain. Shattered legs may heal in time, but some betrayals fester and poison the soul.

 

Ned didn't know what he was looking for.  He knew that Arryn was looking for something, but what? He incorrectly thought that Arryn died because of something he found or did.

It was Sansa who made him grasp the truth: Cersei's children do not look like Roberts, unlike his many bastards! They look like Jaime!